Misc
Animation: World’s Largest Megacities by 2100
Animation: The World’s Largest Megacities by 2100
Throughout the course of human history, the biggest cities have always seemed impossibly large.
For many millennia, it was almost unfathomable for a city to sustain more than 1 million residents. In fact, it wasn’t until the 19th century that the largest cities globally, such as London and Beijing, were able to consistently hold populations beyond that impressive mark.
Despite this, in the modern era, we’ve quickly discovered that a city of 1 million people isn’t remarkable at all. In China alone, there are now over 100 cities with a million people today – and as such, our mental benchmark for what we consider to be a “big city” has changed considerably from past times.
Thinking Big
Just like a city the size of modern Tokyo was hard to imagine for someone living in the 19th century, it can be an extremely difficult thought experiment for us to visualize what future megacities will look like.
Researchers at the Global Cities Institute have crunched the numbers to provide us with one view of the potential megacities of the future, extrapolating a variety of factors to project a list of the 101 largest cities in the years 2010, 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100.
Today’s video uses this data – it’s also an extension to the previous work we did based on the report here.
The Largest Megacities by 2100
According to the report, human geography will look completely unfamiliar by the turn of the century.
Here is a list of the 20 largest megacities projected for 2100:
Rank | Population (2100) | City | Country |
---|---|---|---|
#1 | 88.3 million | Lagos | Nigeria |
#2 | 83.5 million | Kinshasa | DRC |
#3 | 73.7 million | Dar Es Salaam | Tanzania |
#4 | 67.2 million | Mumbai | India |
#5 | 57.3 million | Delhi | India |
#6 | 56.6 million | Khartoum | Sudan |
#7 | 56.1 million | Niamey | Niger |
#8 | 54.3 million | Dhaka | Bangladesh |
#9 | 52.4 million | Kolkata | India |
#10 | 50.3 million | Kabul | Afghanistan |
#11 | 49.1 million | Karachi | Pakistan |
#12 | 46.7 million | Nairobi | Kenya |
#13 | 41.4 million | Lilongwe | Malawi |
#14 | 40.9 million | Blantyre City | Malawi |
#15 | 40.5 million | Cairo | Egypt |
#16 | 40.1 million | Kampala | Uganda |
#17 | 40.0 million | Manila | Philippines |
#18 | 37.7 million | Lusaka | Zambia |
#19 | 36.4 million | Mogadishu | Somalia |
#20 | 35.8 million | Addis Ababa | Ethiopia |
By the year 2100, it’s estimated that 13 of the world’s largest megacities will be located in Africa. Meanwhile, India will hold three of them – and there will be zero of them found in the Americas, China, or Europe.
Here’s a final look at the top three:
#1: Lagos, Nigeria
Nigeria’s largest city, Lagos, is expected to push the limits of how big a metropolis can get. Already, Lagos has seen explosive growth over the past few decades, and is growing so fast that no one really knows how many people live there. Over 2,000 people emigrate to the city every day, and current population estimates vary widely from 11 to 21 million inhabitants.
Either way, by the turn of the century, Lagos is projected to have a population north of 88 million.
#2: Kinshasa, DRC
Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo is projected to be the second largest city in the world with a population of 83 million.
#3: Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania
Dar Es Salaam, a city on the coast of Tanzania, has a population of just 4.4 million today. By 2100, its population is projected to jump by a whopping 1,588%, putting the total at 74 million inhabitants.
Politics
Charted: Trust in Government Institutions by G7 Countries
How much do you trust the government and its various institutions? We look at data for G7 countries for the time period of 2006-2023.
Trust in Government Institutions by G7 Countries
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
How much do you trust the government, and its various institutions?
It’s likely that your level of confidence probably depends on a wide range of factors, such as perceived competency, historical context, economic performance, accountability, social cohesion, and transparency.
And for these same reasons, trust levels in government institutions also change all the time, even in the world’s most developed countries: the G7.
Confidence in Government by G7 Countries (2006-2023)
This chart looks at the changes in trust in government institutions between the years 2006 and 2023, based on data from a multi-country Gallup poll.
Specifically, this dataset aggregates confidence in multiple national institutions, including the military, the judicial system, the national government, and the integrity of the electoral system.
Country | Confidence (2006) | Confidence (2023) | Change (p.p.) |
---|---|---|---|
Canada | 57% | 64% | +7 |
Britain | 63% | 63% | +0 |
Germany | 55% | 61% | +6 |
France | 54% | 60% | +6 |
Japan | 48% | 59% | +11 |
Italy | 41% | 54% | +13 |
United States | 63% | 50% | -13 |
What’s interesting here is that in the G7, a group of the world’s most developed economies, there is only one country bucking the general trend: the United States.
Across most G7 countries, confidence in institutions has either improved or stayed the same between 2006 and 2023. The largest percentage point (p.p.) increases occur in Italy and Japan, which saw +13 p.p. and +11 p.p. increases in trust over the time period.
In the U.S., however, confidence in government institutions has fallen by 13 p.p. over the years. What happened?
Key Figures on U.S. Trust in Institutions
In 2006, the U.S. was tied with the UK as having the highest confidence in government institutions, at 63%.
But here’s where the scores stand in 2023, across various institutions:
🇺🇸 Institutions | Confidence (2023) |
---|---|
Military | 81% |
Judiciary | 42% |
National Government | 30% |
Elections | 44% |
Overall | 49% |
Based on this data, it’s clear that the U.S. lags behind in three key indicators: confidence in the national government, confidence in the justice system, and confidence in fair elections. It ranked in last place for each indicator in the G7.
One other data point that stands out: despite leading the world in military spending, the U.S. is only the third most confident in its military in the G7. It lags behind France (86%) and the United Kingdom (83%).
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