Markets
The Cost of Rent in 140+ North American Cities
Visualizing the Cost of Rent in 140+ North American Cities
Location, location, location.
Rental markets are heating up all over the continent, but there are specific cities that are feeling the brunt of this phenomenon.
In places like San Francisco, Brooklyn, San Jose, Seattle, Vancouver, and Denver, city councils are starting to move into panic mode as regular citizens like teachers and nurses are voicing concerns about not being able to afford housing.
Simultaneously, many communities are rightfully concerned about the “brain drain” of their young people, who are moving for greener pastures (i.e. where rent or property is affordable) to start their families.
Mapping Rent Prices
The situation of skyrocketing rents is a tricky one with no silver bullets.
Given the circumstances, our contribution in today’s post is to provide some context and perspective on the situation. In the above chart, we mapped 148 cities in the U.S. and Canada and color-coded these cities based on average rent price.
The size of each circle corresponds to city size as reported by U.S. Census and Statistics Canada data, and they represent the populations of the cities themselves – not the surrounding metro population. This means that Long Beach, CA is not lumped into Los Angeles, CA, for example.
The chart was inspired by a compilation of data from WalletWyse, who used Numbeo estimates of the cost of living across these cities. Numbeo bases its rent estimates based on user-generated data for each city.
As a final note, we omitted cities from the original list with fewer than 100,000 residents, and we kept NYC split up into boroughs.
Massive Disparity
Although rents are rising everywhere, some cities are seeing clear separation from the rest of the pack.
| Rent | $1,000 or less | $1,000-$1,500 | $1,500-$2,000 | $2,000 or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| # of Cities | 66 | 56 | 17 | 9 |
| % of Cities | 45% | 38% | 11% | 6% |
There are 26 cities with rents higher than $1,500, and only two cities with rent over $3,000 (Manhattan and San Francisco).
Meanwhile, there is a significant chunk (46%) of the cities on the list with average rents below $1,000, including several cities that have rent for as inexpensive as $500-$650 (Springfield, MO, Quebec City, QC, or Fort Wayne, IN).
Did anything surprise you about the map and data?
Markets
3 Reasons Why AI Enthusiasm Differs from the Dot-Com Bubble
Valuations are much lower than they were during the dot-com bubble, but what else sets the current AI enthusiasm apart?
3 Reasons Why AI Enthusiasm Differs from the Dot-Com Bubble
Artificial intelligence, like the internet during the dot-com bubble, is getting a lot of attention these days. In the second quarter of 2023, 177 S&P 500 companies mentioned “AI” during their earnings call, nearly triple the five-year average.
Not only that, companies that mentioned “AI” saw their stock price rise 13.3% from December 2022 to September 2023, compared to 1.5% for those that didn’t.
In this graphic from New York Life Investments, we look at current market conditions to find out if AI could be the next dot-com bubble.
Comparing the Dot-Com Bubble to Today
In the late 1990s, frenzied optimism for internet-related stocks led to a rapid rise in valuations and an eventual market crash in the early 2000s. By the time the market hit rock bottom, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index had dropped 82% from its peak.
The growing enthusiasm for AI has some concerned that it could be the next dot-com bubble. But here are three reasons that the current environment is different.
1. Valuations Are Lower
Stock valuations are much lower than they were at the peak of the dot-com bubble. For example, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 is significantly lower than it was in 2000.
| Date | Forward P/E Ratio |
|---|---|
| March 2000 | 60.1x |
| November 2023 | 26.4x |
Lower valuations are an indication that investors are putting more emphasis on earnings and stocks are less at risk of being overvalued.
2. Investors Are More Hesitant
During the dot-com bubble, flows to equity funds increased by 76% from 1999 to 2000.
| Year | Combined ETF and Mutual Fund Flows to Equity Funds |
|---|---|
| 1997 | $231B |
| 1998 | $163B |
| 1999 | $200B |
| 2000 | $352B |
| 2001 | $63B |
| 2002 | $14B |
Source: Investment Company Institute
In contrast, equity fund flows have been negative in 2022 and 2023.
| Year | Combined ETF and Mutual Fund Flows to Equity Funds |
|---|---|
| 2021 | $295B |
| 2022 | -$54B |
| 2023* | -$137B |
Source: Investment Company Institute
*2023 data is from January to September.
Based on fund flows, investors appear hesitant of stocks, rather than overly exuberant.
3. Companies Are More Established
Leading up to the internet bubble, the number of technology IPOs increased substantially.
| Year | Number of Technology IPOs | Median Age |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 174 | 8 |
| 1998 | 113 | 7 |
| 1999 | 370 | 4 |
| 2000 | 261 | 5 |
| 2001 | 24 | 9 |
| 2002 | 20 | 9 |
Many of these companies were relatively new and, at the peak of the bubble in 2000, only 14% of them were profitable.
In recent years, there have been far fewer tech IPOs as companies wait for more positive market conditions. And those that have gone public, the median age is much higher.
| Year | Number of Technology IPOs | Median Age |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 48 | 12 |
| 2021 | 126 | 12 |
| 2022 | 6 | 15 |
Ultimately, many of the companies benefitting from AI are established companies that are already publicly traded. New, unproven companies are much less common in public markets.
Navigating Modern Tech Amid Dot-Com Bubble Worries
Valuations, equity flows, and the shortage of tech IPOs all suggest that AI isn’t shaping up to be the next dot-com bubble.
However, risk is still present in the market. For instance, only 33% of tech companies that went public in 2022 were profitable. Investors can help manage their risk by keeping a diversified portfolio rather than choosing individual stocks.
Explore more insights from New York Life Investments.
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