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The Most Miserable Countries in the World

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miserable countries index

The Most Miserable Countries in the World

Some people believe that happiness comes from within. In the world of economics, however, happiness may be more linked to quantitative factors such as inflation, lending rates, employment levels, and growth in gross domestic product (GDP).

This week’s chart uses data from Steve Hanke of the Cato Institute, and it visualizes the 2019 Misery Index rankings, across 95 countries that report this data on a consistent basis.

The index uses four key economic variables to rank and score countries:

  1. Inflation
  2. Lending rate
  3. Unemployment rate
  4. GDP per capita growth

Here are the Misery Index scores for all 95 countries:

RankCountryContributing FactorMisery Index Score
#1🇻🇪 VenezuelaInflation1,746,439.1
#2🇦🇷 ArgentinaInflation105.6
#3🇮🇷 IranInflation75.7
#4🇧🇷 BrazilLending Rates53.6
#5🇹🇷 TurkeyUnemployment53.3
#6🇳🇬 NigeriaUnemployment43.0
#7🇿🇦 South AfricaUnemployment42.0
#8🇧🇦 Bosnia and HerzegovinaUnemployment38.2
#9🇪🇬 EgyptLending Rates36.8
#10🇺🇦 UkraineLending Rates34.3
#11NicaraguaUnemployment31.3
#12JordanUnemployment30.9
#13UruguayLending Rates27.1
#14HondurasUnemployment26.8
#15MacedoniaUnemployment26.4
#16ArmeniaUnemployment25.1
#17JamaicaLending Rates24.9
#18Saudi ArabiaUnemployment23.5
#19ColombiaLending Rates23.2
#20ParaguayLending Rates22.9
#21GreeceUnemployment22.5
#22AlgeriaUnemployment21.9
#23Costa RicaLending Rates21.7
#24PeruLending Rates21.2
#25AzerbaijanLending Rates21.0
#26Dominican RepublicLending Rates & Unemployment20.3
#27KazakhstanLending Rates20.1
#28BarbadosUnemployment19.7
#29Papua New GuineaLending Rates19.2
#30GeorgiaUnemployment18.8
#31MauritiusLending Rates17.9
#32SerbiaUnemployment17.4
#33GuatemalaLending Rates17.2
#34PakistanLending Rates16.7
#35Sri LankaLending Rates16.0
#36SpainUnemployment15.9
#37RussiaLending Rates15.7
#38MexicoLending Rates15.4
#39IndonesiaLending Rates15.2
#40Trinidad & TobagoLending Rates14.7
#41New ZealandLending Rates14.4
#42ItalyUnemployment13.7
#43MaliUnemployment13.6
#44IndiaLending Rates13.2
#45BangladeshLending Rates12.6
#46AlbaniaLending Rates12.2
#47EcuadorUnemployment12.2
#48El SalvadorUnemployment12.0
#49PhilipinesLending Rates11.8
#50CyprusUnemployment11.7
#51CroatiaUnemployment10.9
#52BoliviaLending Rates10.8
#53CanadaUnemployment10.8
#54PanamaLending Rates10.7
#55FranceUnemployment10.7
#56AustraliaUnemployment10.6
#57KuwaitLending Rates10.5
#58ChileUnemployment10.3
#59EstoniaUnemployment10.3
#60RomaniaLending Rates10.3
#61IcelandLending Rates9.7
#62United KingdomLending Rates9.6
#63BelgiumUnemployment9.3
#64NorwayUnemployment9.3
#65SwedenUnemployment8.8
#66MoldovaLending Rates8.8
#67VietnamLending Rates8.7
#68United StatesLending Rates8.7
#69BulgariaUnemployment8.6
#70FinlandUnemployment8.3
#71Hong KongLending Rates8.3
#72PortugalUnemployment8.2
#73LithuaniaUnemployment7.3
#74SloveniaUnemployment7.2
#75LatviaUnemployment7.0
#76IsraelUnemployment6.8
#77DenmarkUnemployment6.8
#78South KoreaUnemployment6.5
#79PolandUnemployment6.5
#80QatarLending Rates5.8
#81SlovakiaUnemployment5.7
#82GermanyUnemployment5.6
#83MaltaUnemployment5.3
#84SingaporeLending Rates5.2
#85IrelandUnemployment5.1
#86MalaysiaLending Rates5.1
#87Czech RepublicLending Rates5.0
#88NetherlandsUnemployment4.7
#89TaiwanUnemployment4.4
#90SwitzerlandLending Rates4.2
#91ChinaLending Rates4.2
#92AustriaUnemployment3.9
#93JapanUnemployment3.3
#94HungaryUnemployment2.6
#95ThailandLending Rates1.7

To calculate each Misery Index score, a simple formula is used: GDP per capita growth is subtracted from the sum of unemployment, inflation, and bank lending rates.

Which of these factors are driving scores in some of the more “miserable” countries? Which countries rank low on the list, and why?

The Highest Misery Index Scores

Two Latin American countries, Venezuela and Argentina, rank near the top of Hanke’s index.

1. Vexation in Venezuela

Venezuela holds the title of the most “miserable” country in the world for the fourth consecutive year in a row. According to the United Nations, four million Venezuelans have left the country since its economic crisis began in 2014.

Turmoil in Venezuela has been further fueled by skyrocketing hyperinflation. Citizens struggle to afford basic items such as food, toiletries, and medicine. The Cafe Con Leche Index was created specifically to monitor the rapidly changing inflation rates in Venezuela.

Not only does Venezuela have the highest score in the Misery Index, but its score has also seen a dramatic increase over the past year as the crisis has accelerated.

2. Argentina’s History of Volatility

Argentina is the second most “miserable” country, which comes as no surprise given the country’s history of economic crises.

The 2018 Argentine monetary crisis caused a severe devaluation of the peso. The downfall forced the President, Mauricio Macri, to request a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

To put things in perspective, this is the 22nd lending arrangement between Argentina and the IMF. Only six countries have had more commitments to the international organization, including Haiti (27) and Colombia (25).

The Lowest Misery Index Scores

The two countries with the lowest scores in the index have one thing in common: extremely low rates of unemployment.

1. Why Thailand is the Land of Smiles

Thailand takes the prize as the least “miserable” country in the world on the index. The country’s unemployment rate has been remarkably low for years, ranging between 0.4% and 1.2% since 2011. This is the result of the country’s unique structural factors. The “informal” sectors—such as street vendors or taxi drivers—absorb people who become unemployed in the “formal” sector.

Public infrastructure investments by the Thai government continue to attract both private domestic and foreign investments, bolstering the country’s GDP alongside tourism and exports.

2. Hungary’s Prime Minister Sets the Score

Hungary is the second least “miserable” country in the world according to the index.

In 2010, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán implemented a workfare program which diverted menial tasks to thousands of job seekers. Over the same period that the program ran, the national unemployment rate fell from 11.4% to 3.8%.

Orbán won a controversial fourth term in 2018, possibly in part due to promises to protect the country’s sovereignty against the European Union. Despite accusations of populism and even authoritarian tendencies, the Prime Minister still commands a strong following in Hungary.

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Technology

Visualizing the Size of Amazon, the World’s Most Valuable Retailer

Amazon’s valuation has grown by 2,830% over the last decade, and the tech giant is now worth more than the other 9 largest U.S. retailers, combined.

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Visualizing the Size of the World’s Most Valuable Retailer

As brick-and-mortar chains teeter in the face of the pandemic, Amazon continues to gain ground.

The retail juggernaut is valued at no less than $1.4 trillion—roughly four times what it was in late 2016 when its market cap hovered around $350 billion. Last year, the Jeff Bezos-led company shipped 2 billion packages around the world.

Today’s infographic shows how Amazon’s market cap alone is bigger than the nine biggest U.S. retailers put together, highlighting the palpable presence of the once modest online bookstore.

The New Normal

COVID-19’s sudden shift has rendered many retail outfits obsolete.

Neiman Marcus, JCPenney, and J.Crew have all filed for bankruptcy as consumer spending has migrated online. This, coupled with heavy debt loads across many retail chains, is only compounding the demise of brick-and-mortar. In fact, one estimate projects that at least 25,000 U.S. stores will fold over the next year.

Still, as safety and supply chain challenges mount—with COVID-19 related costs in the billions—Amazon remains at the top. It surpasses its next closest competitor, Walmart, by $1 trillion in market valuation.

How does Amazon compare to the largest retailers in the U.S.?

10 Largest Public US Retailers*Market Value July 1, 2020Market Value July 1, 2010 Normalized % Change 2010-2020Retail Revenue
Walmart$339B$179B90%$514B
Costco$134B$24B458%$142B
Amazon$1,400B$50B2,830%$140B
The Kroger Co.$26B$13B107%$118Be
Walgreens Boots Alliance$36B$26B38%$111B
The Home Depot$267B$47B466%$108B
CVS$84B$40B112%$84B
Target$60B$37B64%$74B
Lowe's$102B$29B251%$71B
Best Buy$23B$14B59%$43B
Combined value of retailers (without Amazon)$1,071B

Source: Deloitte, YCharts
*Largest public US retailers based on their retail revenue as of fiscal years ending through June 30, 2019, e=estimated

With nearly a 39% share of U.S. e-commerce retail sales, Amazon’s market cap has grown 2,830% over the last decade. Its business model, which aggressively pursues market dominance instead of focusing on short-term profits, is one factor behinds the rise.

By the same token, one recent estimate by The Economist pegged Amazon’s retail operating margins at -1% last year. Another analyst has suggested that the company purposefully sells retail goods at a loss.

How Amazon makes up for this operating shortfall is through its cash-generating cloud service, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and through a collection of diversified enterprise-focused services. AWS, with estimated operating margins of 26%, brought in $9.2 billion in profits in 2019—more than half of Amazon’s total.

Amazon’s Basket of Eggs

Unlike many of its retail competitors, Amazon has rapidly diversified its acquisitions since it originated in 1994.

Take the $1.2 billion acquisition of Zoox. Amazon plans to operate self-driving taxi fleets, all of which are designed without steering wheels. It is the company’s third largest since the $13.7 billion acquisition of organic grocer Whole Foods, followed by Zappos.

Accounting for the lion’s share of Amazon-owned physical stores, Whole Foods has 508 stores across the U.S., UK, and Canada. While Amazon doesn’t outline revenues across its physical retail segments—which include Amazon Books stores, Amazon Go stores, and others—physical store sales tipped over $17 billion in 2019.

Meanwhile, Amazon also owns gaming streaming platform Twitch, which it acquired for $970 million in 2017. Currently, Twitch makes up 73% of the streaming market and brought in an estimated $300 million in ad revenues in 2019.

Carrying On

Despite the flood of online orders due to quarantines and social distancing requirements, Amazon’s bottom line has suffered. In the second quarter of 2020 alone, it is expected to rack up $4 billion in pandemic-related costs.

Yet, at the same time, its customer-obsessed business model appears to thrive under current market conditions. As of July 1, its stock price has spiked over 51% year-to-date. On an annualized basis, that’s roughly 100% in returns.

As margins get squeezed and expenses grow, is Amazon’s growth sustainable in the long-term? Or, are the company’s strategic acquisitions and revenue streams providing the catalysts (and cash) for only more short-term success?

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Markets

What’s At Risk: An 18-Month View of a Post-COVID World

The WEF surveyed 347 risk analysts to uncover the most likely post-pandemic threats—and no area from the economy to the environment is untouched.

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What’s At Risk: An 18-Month View of a Post-COVID World

As the world continues to grapple with the effects of COVID-19, no part of society seems to be left unscathed. Fears are surmounting around the economy’s health, and dramatic changes in life as we know it are also underway.

In today’s graphic, we use data from a World Economic Forum survey of 347 risk analysts on how they rank the likelihood of major risks we face in the aftermath of the pandemic.

What are the most likely risks for the world over the next year and a half?

The Most Likely Risks

In the report, a “risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition with the potential for significant negative impacts on various countries and industries. The 31 risks have been grouped into five major categories:

  • Economic: 10 risks
  • Societal: 9 risks
  • Geopolitical: 6 risks
  • Technological: 4 risks
  • Environmental: 2 risks

Among these, risk analysts rank economic factors high on their list, but the far-reaching impacts of the remaining factors are not to be overlooked either. Let’s dive deeper into each category.

Economic Shifts

The survey reveals that economic fallout poses the most likely threat in the near future, dominating four of the top five risks overall. With job losses felt the world over, a prolonged recession has 68.6% of experts feeling worried.

RankEconomic Risk%
#1Prolonged recession of the global economy68.6%
#2Surge in bankruptcies (big firms and SMEs) and a wave of industry consolidation56.8%
#3Failure of industries or sectors in certain countries to properly recover55.9%
#4High levels of structural unemployment (especially youth)49.3%
#6Weakening of fiscal positions in major economies45.8%
#7Protracted disruption of global supply chains42.1%
#8Economic collapse of an emerging market or developing economy38.0%
#16Sharp increase in inflation globally20.2%
#20Massive capital outflows and slowdown in foreign direct investment17.9%
#21Sharp underfunding of retirement due to pension fund devaluation17.6%

The pandemic has accelerated structural change in the global economic system, but this does not come without consequences. As central banks offer trillions of dollars worth in response packages and policies, this may inadvertently burden countries with even more debt.

Another concern is that COVID-19 is now hitting developing economies hard, critically stalling the progress they’ve been making on the world stage. For this reason, 38% of the survey respondents anticipate this may cause these markets to collapse.

Social Anxieties

High on everyone’s mind is also the possibility of another COVID-19 outbreak, despite global efforts to flatten the curve of infections.

RankSocietal Risk%
#10Another global outbreak of COVID-19 or different infectious disease30.8%
#13Governmental retention of emergency powers and/or erosion of civil liberties23.3%
#14Exacerbation of mental health issues21.9%
#15Fresh surge in inequality and social divisions21.3%
#18Anger with political leaders and distrust of government18.4%
#23Weakened capacity or collapse of national social security systems16.4%
#24Healthcare becomes prohibitively expensive or ineffective14.7%
#26Failure of education and training systems to adapt to a protracted crisis12.1%
#30Spike in anti-business sentiment3.2%

With many countries moving to reopen, a few more intertwined risks come into play. 21.3% of analysts believe social inequality will be worsened, while 16.4% predict that national social safety nets could be under pressure.

Geopolitical Troubles

Further restrictions on trade and travel movements are an alarm bell for 48.7% of risk analysts—these relationships were already fraught to begin with.

RankGeopolitical Risk%
#5Tighter restrictions on the cross-border movement of people and goods48.7%
#12Exploitation of COVID-19 crisis for geopolitical advantage24.2%
#17Humanitarian crises exacerbated by reduction in foreign aid19.6%
#22Nationalization of strategic industries in certain countries17.0%
#27Failure to support and invest in multilateral organizations for global crisis response7.8%
#31Exacerbation of long-standing military conflicts2.3%

In fact, global trade could drop sharply by 13-32% while foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to decline by an additional 30-40% in 2020.

The drop in foreign aid could also put even more stress on existing humanitarian issues, such as food insecurity in conflict-ridden parts of the world.

Technology Overload

Technology has enabled a significant number of people to cope with the impact and spread of COVID-19. An increased dependence on digital tools has enabled wide-scale remote working for business—but for many more without this option, this accelerated adoption has hindered rather than helped.

RankTechnological Risk%
#9Cyberattacks and data fraud due to sustained shift in working patterns37.8%
#11Additional unemployment from accelerated workforce automation24.8%
#25Abrupt adoption and regulation of technologies (e.g. e-voting, telemedicine, surveillance)13.8%
#28Breakdown of IT infrastructure and networks6.9%

Over a third of the surveyed risk analysts see the emergence of cyberattacks due to remote working as a rising concern. Another near 25% see the threat of rapid automation as a drawback, especially for those in occupations that do not allow for remote work.

Environmental Setbacks

Last but certainly not least, COVID-19 is also potentially halting progress on climate action. While there were initial drops in pollution and emissions due to lockdown, some estimate there could be a severe bounce-back effect on the environment as economies reboot.

RankEnvironmental Risk%
#19Higher risk of failing to invest enough in climate resilience and adaptation18.2%
#29Sharp erosion of global decarbonization efforts4.6%

As a result of the more immediate concerns, sustainability may take a back seat. But with environmental issues considered the biggest global risk this year, these delayed investments and missed climate targets could put the Earth further behind on action.

Which Risks Are of the Greatest Concern?

The risk analysts were also asked which of these risks they considered to be of the greatest concern for the world. The responses to this metric varied, with societal and geopolitical factors taking on more importance.

VC_What's-at-Risk-v5-supp

In particular, concerns around another disease outbreak weighed highly at 40.1%, and tighter cross-border movement came in at 34%.

On the bright side, many experts are also looking to this recovery trajectory as an opportunity for a “great reset” of our global systems.

This is a virus that doesn’t respect borders: it crosses borders. And as long as it is in full strength in any part of the world, it’s affecting everybody else. So it requires global cooperation to deal with it.

——Gita Gopinath, IMF Chief Economist

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