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Silver Bulls: Visualizing the Price of Silver

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Silver Bull Markets

Silver Bulls: Visualizing the Price of Silver

Silver has always shown its value throughout history. From ancient coins to its use as a global currency during the Age of Discovery, silver has circulated the world to become an important financial asset. Its value continues to shine in the era of the modern finance industry.

Today’s infographic comes to us from New Pacific Metals and it takes a look at the bull markets in silver prices and the future of silver.

Silver Bulls: 1967 to Today

The late 1960s marked the beginning of the end for silver as currency, but also the start of its use in protecting and securing wealth.

In the United States, silver certificates were issued by the Treasury until late 1963, when the $1 Federal Reserve Note was released into circulation. After this, the remaining silver certificates were still redeemable for silver, but this practice ended in 1968.

Since then, silver has had several bull markets in which prices have increased—or as some silver aficionados may argue, the relative value of fiat currency has decreased.

 Percentage GainPrice Range (USD)*Duration
Silver Bull #1 (1967-68)49%$12.50 - $18.5813 months
Silver Bull #2 (1971-74)274%$8.45 - $31.5927 months
Silver Bull #3 (1976-80)544%$18.40 - $118.5048 months
Silver Bull #4 (1986-87)40%$12.47 - $17.4812 months
Silver Bull #5 (1993-95)39%$6.47 - $9.0027 months
Silver Bull #6 (2001-11)827%$6.01 - $55.69113 months
Silver Bull #7 (2015-Present?)90%$15.04 - $28.5356 months

Source: MacroTrends
*Inflation-adjusted data using CPI from BLS, LBMA Monthly prices

That said, not all silver bull markets are the same, nor do they necessarily coincide with bull markets in the price of gold.

Performance: Gold vs. Silver

Despite being often referred to as “poor man’s gold”, silver has actually outperformed gold in five of the six previous bull markets for gold and silver.

There are two ways to look at how silver prices performed during these timeframes:

  1. We can compare silver price performance to corresponding peaks and troughs of the gold price
  2. We can also look at silver prices based on its own peaks and troughs, irrespective of gold

Often, gold prices move first with silver prices quickly following—but then, silver can outperform gold on its own timeline.

 Gold PerformanceSilver Performance Silver Performance
Based on gold's peaks and troughsBased on silver's peaks and troughs
Silver Bull #140%-17%100%
Silver Bull #2455%144%432%
Silver Bull #3715%912%977%
Silver Bull #478%27%94%
Silver Bull #528%63%75%
Silver Bull #6:636%904%45%

Source: CPM Group (Nominal data)

More recently, prices of silver have been on an upward trend since 2015 and some would say we are in a new bull market for the precious metal. For however longer, it is anyone’s guess.

The Future of Silver?

While the future price direction of silver is difficult to predict, this doesn’t diminish the increasing importance of silver’s role as a metal in an electrified future.

As you can see in the demand breakdown below, silver is not only precious—it is useful:

Silver Demand (2019)Millions of Ounces
Industrial510.9
...of which Photovoltaics98.7
Photography33.7
Jewelry201.3
Silverware59.8
Net Physical Investment186.1
Total Demand991.8

Source: Silver Institute

While silver’s uses and applications continue to grow, silver remains a safe haven investment from political uncertainty and economic distress—all while being a cheaper and better alternative to gold.

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Mining

More Than Precious: Silver’s Role in the New Energy Era (Part 3 of 3)

Long known as a precious metal, silver in solar and EV technologies will redefine its role and importance to a greener economy.

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Silver More Than Precious

Silver’s Role in the New Energy Era (Part 3 of 3)

Silver is one of the first metals that humans discovered and used. Its extensive use throughout history has linked its name to its monetary value. However, as we have advanced technologically, so have our uses for silver. In the future, silver will see a surge in demand from solar and electric vehicle (EV) technologies.

Part 1 and Part 2 of the Silver Series showcased its monetary legacy as a safe haven asset as a precious metal and why now is its time to shine.

Part 3 of the Silver Series comes to us from Endeavour Silver, and it outlines silver’s role in the new energy era and how it is more than just a precious metal.

A Sterling Reputation: Silver’s History in Technologies

Silver along with gold, copper, lead and iron, was one of the first metals known to humankind. Archaeologists have uncovered silver coins and objects dating from before 4,000 BC in Greece and Turkey. Since then, governments and jewelers embraced its properties to mint currency and craft jewelry.

This historical association between silver and money is recorded across multiple languages. The word silver itself comes from the Anglo-Saxon language, seolfor, which itself comes from ancient Germanic silabar.

Silver’s chemical symbol, “Ag”, is an abbreviation of the Latin word for silver, argentum. The Latin word originates from argunas, a Sanskrit word which means shining. The French use argent as the word for money and silver. Romans bankers and silver traders carried the name argentarius.

While silver’s monetary meanings still stand today, there have been hints of its use beyond money throughout history. For centuries, many cultures used silver containers and wares to store wine, water, and food to prevent spoilage.

During bouts of bubonic plague in Europe, children of wealthy families sucked on silver spoons to preserve their health, which gave birth to the phrase “born with a silver spoon in your mouth.”

Medieval doctors invented silver nitrate used to treat ulcers and burns, a practice that continues to this day. In the 1900s, silver found further application in healthcare. Doctors used to administer eye drops containing silver to newborns in the United States. During World War I, combat medics, doctors, and nurses would apply silver sutures to cover deep wounds.

Silver’s shimmer also made an important material in photography up until the 1970s. Silver’s reflectivity of light made it popular in mirror and building windows.

Now, a new era is rediscovering silver’s properties for the next generation of technology, making the metal more than precious.

Silver in the New Energy Era: Solar and EVs

Silver’s shimmering qualities foreshadowed its use in renewable technologies. Among all metals, silver has the highest electrical conductivity, making it an ideal metal for use in solar cells and the electronic components of electric vehicles.

Silver in Solar Photovoltaics

Conductive layers of silver paste within the cells of a solar photovoltaic (PV) cell help to conduct the electricity within the cell. When light strikes a PV, the conductors absorb the energy and electrons are set free.

Silver’s conductivity carries and stores the free electrons efficiently, maximizing the energy output of a solar cell. According to one study from the University of Kent, a typical solar panel can contain as much as 20 grams of silver.

As the world adopts solar photovoltaics, silver could see dramatic demand coming from this form of renewable energy.

Silver in Electric Vehicles

Silver’s conductivity and corrosion resistance makes its use in electronics critical, and electric vehicles are no exception. Virtually every electrical connection in a vehicle uses silver.

Silver is a critical material in the automotive sector, which uses over 55 million ounces of the metal annually. Auto manufacturers apply silver to the electrical contacts in powered seats and windows and other automotive electronics to improve conductivity.

A Silver Intensive Future

A green future will require metals and will redefine the role for many of them. Silver is no exception. Long known as a precious metal, silver also has industrial applications metal for an eco-friendly future.

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Visualizing China’s Dominance in Rare Earth Metals

Rare earth deposits exist all over the planet, but the majority of the world’s rare earth metals are produced and refined in China.

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China's rare earth exports

China’s Dominance in Rare Earth Metals

Did you know that a single iPhone contains eight different rare earth metals?

From smartphones and electric vehicles to x-rays and guided-missiles, several modern technologies wouldn’t be what they are without rare earth metals. Also known as rare earth elements or simply “rare earths”, this group of 17 elements is critical to a number of wide-ranging industries.

Although deposits of rare earth metals exist all over the world, the majority of both mining and refining occurs in China. The above graphic from CSIS China Power Project tracks China’s exports of rare earth metals in 2019, providing a glimpse of the country’s dominating presence in the global supply chain.

China’s Top Rare Earth Export Destinations

Around 88% of China’s 2019 rare earth exports went to just five countries, which are among the world’s technological and economic powerhouses.

Export DestinationShare of China's Rare Earth ExportsTop Rare Earth Import (tons)
Japan36.0%Cerium
United States33.4%Lanthanum
Netherlands9.6%Lanthanum
South Korea5.4%Lanthanum
Italy3.5%Cerium
Rest of the World12.1%Cerium

Japan and the U.S. are by far the largest importers, collectively accounting for more than two-thirds of China’s rare earth metals exports.

Lanthanum, found in hybrid vehicles and smartphones, was China’s largest rare earth export by volume, followed by cerium. In dollar terms, terbium was the most expensive—generating $57.9 million from just 115 metric tons of exports.

Why China’s Dominance Matters

As the world transitions to a cleaner future, the demand for rare earth metals is expected to nearly double by 2030, and countries are in need of a reliable supply chain.

China’s virtual monopoly in rare earth metals not only gives it a strategic upper hand over heavily dependent countries like the U.S.—which imports 80% of its rare earths from China—but also makes the supply chain anything but reliable.

“China will not rule out using rare earth exports as leverage to deal with the [Trade War] situation.”

—Gao Fengping et al., 2019, in a report funded by the Chinese government via Horizon Advisory.

A case in point comes from 2010 when China reduced its rare earth export quotas by 37%, which in part resulted in skyrocketing rare earth prices worldwide.

average prices of rare earth imports

The resulting supply chain disruption was significant enough to push the EU, the U.S., and Japan to jointly launch a dispute settlement case through the World Trade Organization, which was ruled against China in 2014.

On the brighter side, the increase in prices led to an influx of capital in the rare earth mining industry, financing more than 200 projects outside China. While this exploration boom was short-lived, it was successful in kick-starting production in other parts of the world.

Breaking China’s Rare Earth Monopoly

China’s dominance in rare earths is the result of years of evolving industrial policies since the 1980s, ranging from tax rebates to export restrictions. In order to reduce dependence on China, the U.S. and Japan have made it a priority to diversify their sources of rare earth metals.

For starters, the U.S. has added rare earth metals to its list of critical minerals, and President Donald Trump recently issued an executive order to encourage local production. On the other side of the world, Japan is making efforts to reduce China’s share of its total rare earth imports to less than 50% by 2025.

Increasing rare earth mining outside of China has reduced China’s global share of mining, down from 97.7% in 2010 to 62.9% in 2019. But mining is merely one piece of the puzzle.

Ultimately, the large majority of rare earth refining, 80%, resides in China. Therefore, even rare earths mined overseas are sent to China for final processing. New North American refining facilities are being set up to tackle this, but the challenge lies in managing the environmental impacts of processing rare earths.

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