Commodities
Charted: Commodities vs Equity Valuations (1970–2023)
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Charted: Commodities vs Equity Valuations (1970–2023)
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In recent years, commodity prices have reached a 50-year low relative to overall equity markets (S&P 500). Historically, lows in the ratio of commodities to equities have corresponded with the beginning of new commodity supercycles.
The infographic above uses data from Incrementum AG and Crescat Capital LLC to show the relationship between commodities and U.S. equities over the last five decades.
What is a Commodity Supercycle?
A commodity supercycle occurs when prices of commodities rise above their long-term averages for long periods of time, even decades. Once the supply has adequately grown to meet demand, the cycle enters a downswing.
The last commodity supercycle started in 1996 and peaked in 2011, driven by raw material demand from rapid industrialization taking place in Brazil, India, Russia, and China.
| Supercycles in Commodity Prices | 1899-1932 | 1933-1961 | 1962-1995 | 1996-2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak year | 1904 | 1947 | 1978 | 2011 |
| Peak of supercycle from long-term trend (%) | 10.2 | 14.1 | 19.5 | 33.5 |
| Trough of supercycle from long-term trend (%) | -12.9 | -10 | -38.1 | 23.7 |
| Length of cycle from trough-to-trough (years) | 33 | 29 | 34 | 20 |
| Upswing (years) | 5 | 15 | 17 | 16 |
| Downswing (years) | 28 | 14 | 17 | 4 |
Source: Bank of Canada, IHS
While no two supercycles look the same, they all have three indicators in common: a surge in supply, a surge in demand, and a surge in price.
In general, commodity prices and equity valuations tend to have a low to negative correlation, making it rare to see the two moving in tandem in the same direction for any long period of time.
Commodity Prices and Equity Valuations
In line with the above notion, commodity prices and equity valuations have often been at odds with one another in past market cycles.
During the 1970s and early 1980s, for example, rising oil prices led to a significant decline in stock prices as higher energy costs hurt corporate profits. In contrast, during the first half of the 2000s, low oil prices were accompanied by a strong equity bull market that ended with the 2008 stock market crash.
The relationship, however, is not always straightforward and can be affected by various other factors, such as global economic growth, supply and demand, inflation, and other market events.
With the most recent commodity supercycle peaking in 2011, could the next big one be right around the corner?
Copper
Brass Rods: The Secure Choice
This graphic shows why brass rods are the secure choice for precision-machined and forged parts.
Brass Rods: The Secure Choice
The unique combination of machinability and recyclability makes brass rods the secure choice for manufacturers seeking future-proof raw material solutions.
This infographic, from the Copper Development Association, shows three ways brass rods give manufacturers greater control and a license to grow in the competitive market for precision-machined and forged products.
Future-Proof Investments in New Machine Tools
A material’s machinability directly impacts machine throughput, which typically has the largest impact on machine shop profitability.
The high-speed machining capabilities of brass rods maximize machine tool performance, allowing manufacturers to run the material faster and longer without sacrificing tool life, chip formation, or surface quality.
The high machining efficiency of brass leads to reduced per-part costs, quicker return on investment (ROI) for new machine tools, and expanded production capacity for new projects.
Supply Security Through Closed Loop Recycling
Brass, like its parent element copper, can be infinitely recycled.
In 2022, brass- and wire-rod mills accounted for the majority of the 830,000 tonnes of copper recycled from scrap in the United States.
Given that scrap ratios for machined parts typically range from 60-70% by weight, producing mills benefit from a secure and steady supply of clean scrap returned directly from customers, which is recycled to create new brass rods.
The high residual value of brass scrap creates a strong recycling incentive. Scrap buy back programs give manufacturers greater control over raw material net costs as scrap value is often factored into supplier purchase agreements.
Next Generation Alloys for a Lead-Free Future
Increasingly stringent global regulations continue to pressure manufacturers to minimize the use of materials containing trace amounts of lead and other harmful impurities.
The latest generation of brass-rod alloys is engineered to meet the most demanding criteria for lead leaching in drinking water and other sensitive applications.
Seven brass-rod alloys passed rigorous testing to become the only ‘Acceptable Materials’ against lower lead leaching criteria recently adopted in the national U.S. drinking water quality standard, NSF 61.
Learn more about the advantages of brass rods solutions.
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