Markets
Mapped: Unemployment Forecasts, by Country in 2023
Mapped: Unemployment Forecasts, by Country in 2023
This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.
As 2022 clearly illustrated, the global job market can surprise expectations.
So far, this year is no different. The unemployment rate in six of the G7 countries hovers near the lowest in a century. With an unemployment rate of 3.4%, the U.S. jobless rate hasnโt fallen this low since 1969.
But as some economies navigate a strong labor market against high inflation and hawkish monetary policy, others are facing more challenging conditions. In the above graphic, we map unemployment forecasts in 2023 using data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.
Uncertainty Clouds the Surface
Across many countries, the pandemic has made entrenched labor trends worse. It has also altered job market conditions.
South Africa is projected to see the highest jobless rate globally. As the most industrialized nation on the continent, unemployment is estimated to hit 35.6% in 2023. Together, slow economic growth and stringent labor laws have prevented firms from hiring workers. Over the last two decades, unemployment has hovered around 20%.
Country / Region | 2023 Unemployment Rate(Projected) |
---|---|
๐ฟ๐ฆ South Africa | 35.6% |
๐ธ๐ฉ Sudan | 30.6% |
๐ต๐ธ West Bank and Gaza | 25.0% |
๐ฌ๐ช Georgia | 19.5% |
๐ง๐ฆ Bosnia and Herzegovina | 17.2% |
๐ฆ๐ฒ Armenia | 15.1% |
๐ฒ๐ฐ North Macedonia | 15.0% |
๐จ๐ท Costa Rica | 13.2% |
๐ง๐ธ The Bahamas | 12.7% |
๐ช๐ธ Spain | 12.3% |
๐ฌ๐ท Greece | 12.2% |
๐จ๐ด Colombia | 11.1% |
๐ฒ๐ฆ Morocco | 10.7% |
๐ธ๐ท Suriname | 10.6% |
๐น๐ท Turkiye | 10.5% |
๐ง๐ง Barbados | 10.0% |
๐ฆ๐ฑ Albania | 10.0% |
๐ต๐ฆ Panama | 10.0% |
๐ท๐ธ Serbia | 9.7% |
๐ฎ๐ท Iran | 9.6% |
๐บ๐ฟ Uzbekistan | 9.5% |
๐ง๐ท Brazil | 9.5% |
๐ฎ๐น Italy | 9.4% |
๐ฐ๐ฌ Kyrgyz Republic | 9.0% |
๐จ๐ป Cabo Verde | 8.5% |
๐จ๐ฑ Chile | 8.3% |
๐ง๐ฟ Belize | 8.0% |
๐ต๐ท Puerto Rico | 7.9% |
๐บ๐พ Uruguay | 7.9% |
๐ฆ๐ผ Aruba | 7.7% |
๐ซ๐ท France | 7.6% |
๐ต๐ช Peru | 7.5% |
๐ธ๐ป El Salvador | 7.5% |
๐ธ๐ช Sweden | 7.4% |
๐ซ๐ฎ Finland | 7.4% |
๐ฒ๐บ Mauritius | 7.4% |
๐ช๐ฌ Egypt | 7.3% |
๐ฑ๐ป Latvia | 7.2% |
๐ณ๐ฎ Nicaragua | 7.2% |
๐ฑ๐น Lithuania | 7.0% |
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina | 6.9% |
๐ช๐ช Estonia | 6.8% |
๐ง๐ณ Brunei Darussalam | 6.8% |
๐ฒ๐ณ Mongolia | 6.6% |
๐ญ๐ท Croatia | 6.6% |
๐จ๐พ Cyprus | 6.5% |
๐ต๐น Portugal | 6.5% |
๐ต๐ฐ Pakistan | 6.4% |
๐ต๐พ Paraguay | 6.4% |
๐ธ๐ฐ Slovak Republic | 6.2% |
๐ฉ๐ด Dominican Republic | 6.2% |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | 5.9% |
๐ฆ๐ฟ Azerbaijan | 5.8% |
๐ธ๐ฒ San Marino | 5.7% |
๐ง๐ช Belgium | 5.6% |
๐ท๐ด Romania | 5.5% |
๐ซ๐ฏ Fiji | 5.5% |
๐ต๐ญ Philippines | 5.4% |
๐ฎ๐ฉ Indonesia | 5.3% |
๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark | 5.3% |
๐ฑ๐ฐ Sri Lanka | 5.0% |
๐ฑ๐บ Luxembourg | 5.0% |
๐ฎ๐ช Ireland | 4.8% |
๐ฐ๐ฟ Kazakhstan | 4.8% |
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom | 4.8% |
๐ง๐ฌ Bulgaria | 4.7% |
๐ฆ๐น Austria | 4.6% |
๐ญ๐ณ Honduras | 4.6% |
๐บ๐ธ U.S. | 4.6% |
๐ง๐ญ Bahrain | 4.4% |
๐ท๐บ Russia | 4.3% |
๐ง๐พ Belarus | 4.3% |
๐ธ๐ฎ Slovenia | 4.3% |
๐ฒ๐พ Malaysia | 4.3% |
๐จ๐ณ China | 4.1% |
๐ฎ๐ธ Iceland | 4.0% |
๐ง๐ด Bolivia | 4.0% |
๐ญ๐ฐ Hong Kong SAR | 4.0% |
๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands | 3.9% |
๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealand | 3.9% |
๐ญ๐บ Hungary | 3.8% |
๐ณ๐ด Norway | 3.8% |
๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel | 3.8% |
๐ช๐จ Ecuador | 3.8% |
๐ฆ๐บ Australia | 3.7% |
๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico | 3.7% |
๐น๐ผ Taiwan | 3.6% |
๐ฒ๐ฉ Moldova | 3.5% |
๐ฐ๐ท South Korea | 3.4% |
๐ฉ๐ช Germany | 3.4% |
๐ฒ๐น Malta | 3.3% |
๐ต๐ฑ Poland | 3.2% |
๐ธ๐จ Seychelles | 3.0% |
๐ฒ๐ด Macao SAR | 2.7% |
๐ฏ๐ต Japan | 2.4% |
๐จ๐ญ Switzerland | 2.4% |
๐ป๐ณ Vietnam | 2.3% |
๐จ๐ฟ Czech Republic | 2.3% |
๐ธ๐ฌ Singapore | 2.1% |
๐น๐ญ Thailand | 1.0% |
In Europe, Bosnia and Herzegovina is estimated to see the highest unemployment rate, at over 17%. It is followed by North Macedonia (15.0%) and Spain (12.7%). These jobless rates are more than double the projections for advanced economies in Europe.
The U.S. is forecast to see an unemployment rate of 4.6%, or 1.2% higher than current levels.
This suggests that todayโs labor market strength will ease as U.S. economic indicators weaken. One marker is the Conference Boardโs Leading Economic Index, which fell for its tenth straight month in December. Lower manufacturing orders, declining consumer expectations, and shorter work weeks are among the indicators it tracks.
Like the U.S., many advanced countries are witnessing labor market strength, especially in the United Kingdom, Asia, and Europe, although how long it will last is unknown.
A Closer Look at U.S. Numbers
Unlike some declining economic indicators mentioned above, the job market is one of the strongest areas of the global economy. Even as the tech sector reports mass layoffs, unemployment claims in the U.S. fall below recent averages. (Itโs worth noting the tech sector makes up just 4% of the workforce).
In 2022, 4.8 million jobs were added, more than double the average seen between 2015-2019. Of course, the pandemic recovery has impacted these figures.
Some analysts suggest that despite a bleaker economic outlook, companies are hesitant to conduct layoffs. At the same time, the labor market is absorbing workers who have lost employment.
Consider the manufacturing sector. Even as the January ISM Purchasing Managers Index posted lower readings, hitting 47.4โa level of 48.7 and below generally indicates a recessionโfactories are not laying off many workers. Instead, manufacturers are saying they are confident conditions will improve in the second half of the year.
Containing Aftershocks
Today, strong labor markets pose a key challenge for central bankers globally.
This is because the robust job market is contributing to high inflation numbers. Yet despite recent rate increases, the impact has yet to prompt major waves in unemployment. Typically, monetary policy moves like these takes about a year to take peak effect. To combat inflation, monetary policy has been shown to take over three or even four years.
The good news is that inflation can potentially be tamed by other means. Fixing supply-side dynamics, such as preventing supply shortages and improving transportation systems and infrastructure could cool inflation.
As investors closely watch economic data, rising unemployment could come on the heels of higher interest rates, but so far this has yet to unravel.
Markets
Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country
Global house prices were resilient in 2022, rising 6%. We compare nominal and real price growth by country as interest rates surged.

Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country
This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.
Global housing prices rose an average of 6% annually, between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022.
In real terms that take inflation into account, prices actually fell 2% for the first decline in 12 years. Despite a surge in interest rates and mortgage costs, housing markets were noticeably stable. Real prices remain 7% above pre-pandemic levels.
In this graphic, we show the change in residential property prices with data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
The Growth in House Prices, Ranked
The following dataset from the BIS covers nominal and real house price growth across 58 countries and regions as of the fourth quarter of 2022:
Price Growth Rank | Country / Region | Nominal Year-over-Year Change (%) | Real Year-over-Year Change (%) |
---|---|---|---|
1 | ๐น๐ท Tรผrkiye | 167.9 | 51.0 |
2 | ๐ท๐ธ Serbia | 23.1 | 7.0 |
3 | ๐ท๐บ Russia | 23.1 | 9.7 |
4 | ๐ฒ๐ฐ North Macedonia | 20.6 | 1.0 |
5 | ๐ฎ๐ธ Iceland | 20.3 | 9.9 |
6 | ๐ญ๐ท Croatia | 17.3 | 3.6 |
7 | ๐ช๐ช Estonia | 16.9 | -3.0 |
8 | ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel | 16.8 | 11.0 |
9 | ๐ญ๐บ Hungary | 16.5 | -5.1 |
10 | ๐ฑ๐น Lithuania | 16.0 | -5.5 |
11 | ๐ธ๐ฎ Slovenia | 15.4 | 4.2 |
12 | ๐ง๐ฌ Bulgaria | 13.4 | -3.2 |
13 | ๐ฌ๐ท Greece | 12.2 | 3.7 |
14 | ๐ต๐น Portugal | 11.3 | 1.3 |
15 | ๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom | 10.0 | -0.7 |
16 | ๐ธ๐ฐ Slovak Republic | 9.7 | -4.8 |
17 | ๐ฆ๐ช United Arab Emirates | 9.6 | 2.9 |
18 | ๐ต๐ฑ Poland | 9.3 | -6.9 |
19 | ๐ฑ๐ป Latvia | 9.1 | -10.2 |
20 | ๐ธ๐ฌ Singapore | 8.6 | 1.9 |
21 | ๐ฎ๐ช Ireland | 8.6 | -0.2 |
22 | ๐จ๐ฑ Chile | 8.2 | -3.0 |
23 | ๐ฏ๐ต Japan | 7.9 | 3.9 |
24 | ๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico | 7.9 | -0.1 |
25 | ๐ต๐ญ Philippines | 7.7 | -0.2 |
26 | ๐บ๐ธ United States | 7.1 | 0.0 |
27 | ๐จ๐ฟ Czechia | 6.9 | -7.6 |
28 | ๐ท๐ด Romania | 6.7 | -7.5 |
29 | ๐ฒ๐น Malta | 6.3 | -0.7 |
30 | ๐จ๐พ Cyprus | 6.3 | -2.9 |
31 | ๐จ๐ด Colombia | 6.3 | -5.6 |
32 | ๐ฑ๐บ Luxembourg | 5.6 | -0.5 |
33 | ๐ช๐ธ Spain | 5.5 | -1.1 |
34 | ๐จ๐ญ Switzerland | 5.4 | 2.4 |
35 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands | 5.4 | -5.3 |
36 | ๐ฆ๐น Austria | 5.2 | -4.8 |
37 | ๐ซ๐ท France | 4.8 | -1.2 |
38 | ๐ง๐ช Belgium | 4.7 | -5.7 |
39 | ๐น๐ญ Thailand | 4.7 | -1.1 |
40 | ๐ฟ๐ฆ South Africa | 3.1 | -4.0 |
41 | ๐ฎ๐ณ India | 2.8 | -3.1 |
42 | ๐ฎ๐น Italy | 2.8 | -8.0 |
43 | ๐ณ๐ด Norway | 2.6 | -3.8 |
44 | ๐ฎ๐ฉ Indonesia | 2.0 | -3.4 |
45 | ๐ต๐ช Peru | 1.5 | -6.3 |
46 | ๐ฒ๐พ Malaysia | 1.2 | -2.6 |
47 | ๐ฐ๐ท South Korea | -0.1 | -5.0 |
48 | ๐ฒ๐ฆ Morocco | -0.1 | -7.7 |
49 | ๐ง๐ท Brazil | -0.1 | -5.8 |
50 | ๐ซ๐ฎ Finland | -2.3 | -10.2 |
51 | ๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark | -2.4 | -10.6 |
52 | ๐ฆ๐บ Australia | -3.2 | -10.2 |
53 | ๐ฉ๐ช Germany | -3.6 | -12.1 |
54 | ๐ธ๐ช Sweden | -3.7 | -13.7 |
55 | ๐จ๐ณ China | -3.7 | -5.4 |
56 | ๐จ๐ฆ Canada | -3.8 | -9.8 |
57 | ๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealand | -10.4 | -16.5 |
58 | ๐ญ๐ฐ Hong Kong SAR | -13.5 | -15.1 |
Tรผrkiyeโs property prices jumped the highest globally, at nearly 168% amid soaring inflation.
Real estate demand has increased alongside declining interest rates. The government drastically cut interest rates from 19% in late 2021 to 8.5% to support a weakening economy.
Many European countries saw some of the highest price growth in nominal terms. A strong labor market and low interest rates pushed up prices, even as mortgage rates broadly doubled across the continent. For real price growth, most countries were in negative territoryโnotably Sweden, Germany, and Denmark.
Nominal U.S. housing prices grew just over 7%, while real price growth halted to 0%. Prices have remained elevated given the stubbornly low supply of inventory. In fact, residential prices remain 45% above pre-pandemic levels.
How Do Interest Rates Impact Property Markets?
Global house prices boomed during the pandemic as central banks cut interest rates to prop up economies.
Now, rates have returned to levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. On average, rates have increased four percentage points in many major economies. Roughly three-quarters of the countries in the BIS dataset witnessed negative year-over-year real house price growth as of the fourth quarter of 2022.
Interest rates have a large impact on property prices. Cross-country evidence shows that for every one percentage point increase in real interest rates, the growth rate of housing prices tends to fall by about two percentage points.
When Will Housing Prices Fall?
The rise in U.S. interest rates has been counteracted by homeowners being reluctant to sell so they can keep their low mortgage rates. As a result, it is keeping inventory low and prices high. Homeowners canโt sell and keep their low mortgage rates unless they meet strict conditions on a new property.
Additionally, several other factors impact price dynamics. Construction costs, income growth, labor shortages, and population growth all play a role.
With a strong labor market continuing through 2023, stable incomes may help stave off prices from falling. On the other hand, buyers with floating-rate mortgages face steeper costs and may be unable to afford new rates. This could increase housing supply in the market, potentially leading to lower prices.
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