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IMF Growth Forecasts: Missing the Mark So Far [Chart]

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IMF Growth Forecasts: Missing the Mark So Far [Chart]

IMF Growth Forecasts: Missing the Mark So Far [Chart]

Will next week’s report be on target after 5 years of downward revisions?

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Projections on the global economic recovery have been overestimated by most policymakers and institutions for some time now. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been no exception to this fallacy.

Whether it is simple error, wishful thinking, or a complex system that is to blame, the economists at the IMF have now missed the mark for five years in a row on their global real GDP growth forecasts. After multiple revisions downward, their most recent January 2016 report finally estimated growth for this year to be a mediocre 3.4%.

Of course, no one expects economists to be anywhere near perfect. However, what is troubling in this instance is that all estimates have erred on the side of being overly optimistic. This makes it difficult for investors, businesses, and governments to ground their expectations and to manage their assets.

Frontrunning

This upcoming week, the IMF will release their latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, summarizing key economic figures as well as their forecasted growth for 2016 and the years ahead.

Will they miss the mark again, or will their projections finally line up with economic realities?

In recent weeks, IMF head Christine Lagarde has hit the press circuit to possibly set expectations ahead of the new report’s release. In Frankfurt, she had this to say on April 5, potentially revealing some clues for us:

Overall, the global outlook has weakened further over the last six months — exacerbated by China’s relative slowdown, lower commodity prices, and the prospect of financial tightening for many countries. Emerging markets had largely driven the recovery and the expectation was that the advanced economies would pick up the ‘growth baton’ – That has not happened.

She went on to suggest that a strong U.S. dollar, high unemployment and shoddy balance sheets in Europe, and economic data from Japan have all reduced growth in key developed countries. Further, emerging markets such as China, Brazil, and Russia had all faced more challenges than expected, and that the Middle East’s growth got hammered by weak energy prices.

Meanwhile, Lagarde saw India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam as bright spots.

Later in the speech, she pulled no punches on potential global risks, mentioning “high debt” as the first risk to making recovery progress:

For advanced economies, [risks] relate to longstanding crisis legacies — high debt, low inflation, low investment, low productivity, and, for some, high unemployment.

While Lagarde made it clear that there has been a “loss of momentum” and that the IMF is “on alert, not alarm”, this could be a clue that the reality is setting in for the IMF: a sustained, real recovery is not in the cards unless giant obstacles are overcome. We believe this could take a prolonged time to truly correct, or that it could eventually happen after a major reset to our financial and political systems.

Either way, for once it seems possible (though improbable), that the IMF may finally see things the same way.

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Graphene: An Investor’s Guide to the Emerging Market

The market value of graphene could reach $3.75 billion by 2030. As the emerging industry shows fast growth, it also faces obstacles.

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The following content is sponsored by HydroGraph

Graphene: An Investor’s Guide to the Emerging Market

Graphene is an atomic-scale “honeycomb” that is revolutionizing the world of materials and capturing investor attention.

Experts predict that its market value could reach the billion-dollar threshold by 2027 and soar to a staggering $3.75 billion by 2030.

In this infographic sponsored by HydroGraph, we dive into everything investors need to know about this exciting industry and where it’s headed.

Promising Properties

Graphene possesses several unique physical properties which contribute to its wide range of potential applications.

  • 200 times stronger than steel
  • Harder than diamonds
  • 1,000 times lighter than paper
  • 98% transparent
  • Higher electrical conductivity than copper
  • Heat conductivity: 5 times that of copper
  • 2,630 m² of surface area per gram

Since its first successful isolation in 2004, graphene’s properties have opened the doors to a multitude of commercial applications and products.

Applications of Graphene

Graphene has permeated numerous sectors like electronics, energy, and healthcare because of its impressive array of end uses.

IndustryRevenue CAGR of Graphene Across Industries, 2022-2027
Biomedical and Healthcare52%
Electronics and Telecommunications34%
Energy25%
Aerospace and Defense16%
Other End-User Industries17%

Graphene’s antibacterial properties make it highly suitable for medical instruments and implants. Furthermore, it has shown remarkable potential in helping treat diseases such as cancer.

Another one of the material’s applications is its ability to emit high-speed light pulses, or to combine graphene’s thinness and high-conductivity to create the tiniest possible light sources.

All in all, it’s difficult to sum up graphene’s properties and potential applications in one place. The supermaterial has been covered and cited in thousands of academic journals, and comes up with over 2 million search results on Google Scholar.

Graphene Commercialization

Graphene has evolved from a scientific breakthrough to a commercial reality in less than two decades, putting it firmly on the radar of many future-focused investors.

But despite the strides the industry is making, it is still in its infancy, and therefore challenges exist on the path to widespread adoption. Here are the top five commercialization obstacles perceived by industry players.

Obstacle% of survey respondents
Cost31%
Production Methods, Scaling, and Distribution21%
Material Quality/Consistency17%
Lack of Knowledge/Awareness15%
Dispersion/Handling14%

When transitioning cutting-edge materials from the laboratory to consumer products, challenges like these can be expected. But one company is tackling them head-on.

By producing 99.8% pure graphene, and ensuring batch-to-batch consistency, HydroGraph is helping meet the growing demand for graphene products across industries while addressing challenges like cost, scale, and quality.

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Interested in learning more? Explore investment opportunities with HydroGraph now.

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