Chart of the Week

IMF Growth Forecasts: Missing the Mark So Far [Chart]

Published

4 years ago

April 8, 2016

Jeff Desjardins

IMF Growth Forecasts: Missing the Mark So Far [Chart]

Will next week’s report be on target after 5 years of downward revisions?

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Projections on the global economic recovery have been overestimated by most policymakers and institutions for some time now. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been no exception to this fallacy.

Whether it is simple error, wishful thinking, or a complex system that is to blame, the economists at the IMF have now missed the mark for five years in a row on their global real GDP growth forecasts. After multiple revisions downward, their most recent January 2016 report finally estimated growth for this year to be a mediocre 3.4%.

Of course, no one expects economists to be anywhere near perfect. However, what is troubling in this instance is that all estimates have erred on the side of being overly optimistic. This makes it difficult for investors, businesses, and governments to ground their expectations and to manage their assets.

Frontrunning

This upcoming week, the IMF will release their latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, summarizing key economic figures as well as their forecasted growth for 2016 and the years ahead.

Will they miss the mark again, or will their projections finally line up with economic realities?

In recent weeks, IMF head Christine Lagarde has hit the press circuit to possibly set expectations ahead of the new report’s release. In Frankfurt, she had this to say on April 5, potentially revealing some clues for us:

Overall, the global outlook has weakened further over the last six months — exacerbated by China’s relative slowdown, lower commodity prices, and the prospect of financial tightening for many countries. Emerging markets had largely driven the recovery and the expectation was that the advanced economies would pick up the ‘growth baton’ – That has not happened.

She went on to suggest that a strong U.S. dollar, high unemployment and shoddy balance sheets in Europe, and economic data from Japan have all reduced growth in key developed countries. Further, emerging markets such as China, Brazil, and Russia had all faced more challenges than expected, and that the Middle East’s growth got hammered by weak energy prices.

Meanwhile, Lagarde saw India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam as bright spots.

Later in the speech, she pulled no punches on potential global risks, mentioning “high debt” as the first risk to making recovery progress:

For advanced economies, [risks] relate to longstanding crisis legacies — high debt, low inflation, low investment, low productivity, and, for some, high unemployment.

While Lagarde made it clear that there has been a “loss of momentum” and that the IMF is “on alert, not alarm”, this could be a clue that the reality is setting in for the IMF: a sustained, real recovery is not in the cards unless giant obstacles are overcome. We believe this could take a prolonged time to truly correct, or that it could eventually happen after a major reset to our financial and political systems.

Either way, for once it seems possible (though improbable), that the IMF may finally see things the same way.

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Chart of the Week

Visualizing the Countries Most Reliant on Tourism

With international travel grinding to a halt, here are the economies that have the most to lose from a lack of tourism.

Published

3 days ago

May 22, 2020

Dorothy Neufeld

Visualizing the Countries Most Reliant on Tourism

Without a steady influx of tourism revenue, many countries could face severe economic damage.

As the global travel and tourism industry stalls, the spillover effects to global employment are wide-reaching. A total of 330 million jobs are supported by this industry around the world, and it contributes 10%, or $8.9 trillion to global GDP each year.

Today’s infographic uses data from the World Travel & Tourism Council, and it highlights the countries that depend the most on the travel and tourism industry according to employment—quantifying the scale that the industry contributes to the health of the global economy.

Ground Control

Worldwide, 44 countries rely on the travel and tourism industry for more than 15% of their total share of employment. Unsurprisingly, many of the countries suffering the most economic damage are island nations.

At the same time, data reveals the extent to which certain larger nations rely on tourism. In New Zealand, for example, 479,000 jobs are generated by the travel and tourism industry, while in Cambodia tourism contributes to 2.4 million jobs.

Rank	Country	T&T Share of Jobs (2019)	T&T Jobs (2019)	Population
1	Antigua & Barbuda	91%	33,800	97,900
2	Aruba	84%	35,000	106,800
3	St. Lucia	78%	62,900	183,600
4	US Virgin Islands	69%	28,800	104,400
5	Macau	66%	253,700	649,300
6	Maldives	60%	155,600	540,500
7	St. Kitts & Nevis	59%	14,100	53,200
8	British Virgin Islands	54%	5,500	30,200
9	Bahamas	52%	103,900	393,200
10	Anguilla	51%	3,800	15,000
11	St. Vincent & the Grenadines	45%	19,900	110,900
12	Seychelles	44%	20,600	98,300
13	Grenada	43%	24,300	112,500
14	Former Netherlands Antilles	41%	25,700	26,200
15	Belize	39%	64,800	397,600
16	Cape Verde	39%	98,300	556,000
17	Dominica	39%	13,600	72,000
18	Vanuatu	36%	29,000	307,100
19	Barbados	33%	44,900	287,400
20	Cayman Islands	33%	12,300	65,700
21	Jamaica	33%	406,100	2,961,000
22	Montenegro	33%	66,900	628,100
23	Georgia	28%	488,200	3,989,000
24	Cambodia	26%	2,371,100	16,719,000
25	Fiji	26%	90,700	896,400
26	Croatia	25%	383,400	4,105,000
27	Philippines	24%	10,237,700	109,600,000
28	Sao Tome and Principe	23%	14,500	219,200
29	Bermuda	23%	7,800	62,300
30	Albania	22%	254,300	2,880,000
31	Iceland	22%	44,100	341,200
32	Greece	22%	846,200	10,420,000
33	Thailand	21%	8,054,600	69,800,000
34	Malta	21%	52,800	441,500
35	New Zealand	20%	479,400	4,822,000
36	Lebanon	19%	434,200	6,825,000
37	Mauritius	19%	104,200	1,272,000
38	Portugal	19%	902,400	10,197,000
39	Kiribati	18%	6,600	119,000
40	Gambia	18%	129,600	2,417,000
41	Jordan	18%	254,700	10,200,000
42	Dominican Republic	17%	810,800	10,848,000
43	Uruguay	16%	262,500	3,474,000
44	Namibia	15%	114,600	2,541,000

Croatia, another tourist hotspot, is hoping to reopen in time for peak season—the country generated tourism revenues of $13B in 2019. With a population of over 4 million, travel and tourism contributes to 25% of its workforce.

How the 20 Largest Economies Stack Up

Tourist-centric countries remain the hardest hit from global travel bans, but the world’s biggest economies are also feeling the impact.

In Spain, tourism ranks as the third highest contributor to its economy. If lockdowns remain in place until September, it is projected to lose $68 billion (€62 billion) in revenues.

Rank	Country	Travel and Tourism, Contribution to GDP
1	Mexico	15.5%
2	Spain	14.3%
3	Italy	13.0%
4	Turkey	11.3%
5	China	11.3%
6	Australia	10.8%
7	Saudi Arabia	9.5%
8	Germany	9.1%
9	United Kingdom	9.0%
10	U.S.	8.6%
11	France	8.5%
12	Brazil	7.7%
13	Switzerland	7.6%
14	Japan	7.0%
15	India	6.8%
16	Canada	6.3%
17	Netherlands	5.7%
18	Indonesia	5.7%
19	Russia	5.0%
20	South Korea	2.8%

On the other hand, South Korea is impacted the least: just 2.8% of its GDP is reliant on tourism.

Travel, Interrupted

Which countries earn the most from the travel and tourism industry in absolute dollar terms?

Topping the list was the U.S., with tourism contributing over $1.8 trillion to its economy, or 8.6% of its GDP in 2019. The U.S. remains a global epicenter for COVID-19 cases, and details remain unconfirmed if the country will reopen to visitors before summer.

Travel and tourism contribution to GDP in absolute terms

Meanwhile, the contribution of travel and tourism to China’s economy has more than doubled over the last decade, approaching $1.6 trillion. To help bolster economic activity, China and South Korea have eased restrictions by establishing a travel corridor.

As countries slowly reopen, other travel bubbles are beginning to make headway. For example, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have eased travel restrictions by creating an established travel zone. Australia and New Zealand have a similar arrangement on the horizon. These travel bubbles allow citizens from each country to travel within a given zone.

Of course, COVID-19 will have a lasting impact on employment and global economic activity with inconceivable outcomes. When the dust finally settles, could global tourism face a reckoning?

Chart of the Week

Zoom is Now Worth More Than the World’s 7 Biggest Airlines

Zoom benefits from the COVID-19 virtual transition—but other industries aren’t as lucky. The app is now more valuable than the world’s seven largest airlines.

Published

1 week ago

May 15, 2020

Iman Ghosh

Zoom Is Now Worth More Than The 7 Biggest Airlines

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, many people have transitioned to working—and socializing—from home. If these trends become the new normal, certain companies may be in for a big payoff.

Popular video conferencing company, Zoom Communications, is a prime example of an organization benefiting from this transition. Today’s graphic, inspired by Lennart Dobravsky at Lufthansa Innovation Hub, is a dramatic look at how much Zoom’s valuation has shot up during this unusual period in history.

The Zoom Boom, in Perspective

As of May 15, 2020, Zoom’s market capitalization has skyrocketed to $48.8 billion, despite posting revenues of only $623 million over the past year.

What separates Zoom from its competition, and what’s led to the app’s massive surge in mainstream business culture?

Industry analysts say that business users have been drawn to the app because of its easy-to-use interface and user experience, as well as the ability to support up to 100 participants at a time. The app has also blown up among educators for use in online learning, after CEO Eric Yuan took extra steps to ensure K-12 schools could use the platform for free.

Zoom meeting participants have skyrocketed in past months, going from 10 million in December 2019 to a whopping 300 million as of April 2020.

Zoom vs. Airlines stock chart

The Airline Decline

The airline industry has been on the opposite end of fortune, suffering an unprecedented plummet in demand as international restrictions have shuttered airports:

The world’s top airlines by revenue have fallen in total value by 62% since the end of January:

Airline	Market Cap Jan 31, 2020	Market Cap May 15, 2020
Southwest Airlines	$28.440B	$14.04B
Delta	$35.680B	$12.30B
United	$18.790B	$5.867B
International Airlines Group	$14.760B	$4.111B
Lufthansa	$7.460B	$3.873B
American	$11.490B	$3.886B
Air France	$4.681B	$2.137B
Total Market Cap	$121.301B	$46.214B

Source: YCharts. All market capitalizations listed as of May 15, 2020.

With countries scrambling to contain the spread of COVID-19, many airlines have cut travel capacity, laid off workers, and chopped executive pay to try and stay afloat.

If and when regular air travel will return remains a major question mark, and even patient investors such as Warren Buffett have pulled out from airline stocks.

Airline	% Change in Total Returns (Jan 31-May 15, 2020)
United	-72.91%
International Airlines Group	-72.16%
American	-65.76%
Delta	-65.39%
Air France	-54.34%
Southwest Airlines	-56.35%
Lufthansa	-48.08%

Source: YCharts, as of May 15, 2020.

The world has changed for the airlines. The future is much less clear to me about how the business will turn out.

—Warren Buffett

What Does the Future Hold?

Zoom’s recent success is a product of its circumstances, but will it last? That’s a question on the mind of many investors and pundits ahead of the company’s Q1 results to be released in June.

It hasn’t been all smooth-sailing for the company—a spate of “Zoom Bombing” incidents, where uninvited people hijacked meetings, brought the app’s security measures under scrutiny. However, the company remained resilient, swiftly providing support to combat the problem.

Meanwhile, as many parts of the world begin taking measures to restart economic activity, airlines could see a cautious return to the skies—although any such recovery will surely be a “slow, long ascent”.

Correction: Changed the graphics to reflect 300 million daily active “meeting participants” as opposed to daily active users.