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IMF Growth Forecasts: Missing the Mark So Far [Chart]

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IMF Growth Forecasts: Missing the Mark So Far [Chart]

IMF Growth Forecasts: Missing the Mark So Far [Chart]

Will next week’s report be on target after 5 years of downward revisions?

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Projections on the global economic recovery have been overestimated by most policymakers and institutions for some time now. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been no exception to this fallacy.

Whether it is simple error, wishful thinking, or a complex system that is to blame, the economists at the IMF have now missed the mark for five years in a row on their global real GDP growth forecasts. After multiple revisions downward, their most recent January 2016 report finally estimated growth for this year to be a mediocre 3.4%.

Of course, no one expects economists to be anywhere near perfect. However, what is troubling in this instance is that all estimates have erred on the side of being overly optimistic. This makes it difficult for investors, businesses, and governments to ground their expectations and to manage their assets.

Frontrunning

This upcoming week, the IMF will release their latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, summarizing key economic figures as well as their forecasted growth for 2016 and the years ahead.

Will they miss the mark again, or will their projections finally line up with economic realities?

In recent weeks, IMF head Christine Lagarde has hit the press circuit to possibly set expectations ahead of the new report’s release. In Frankfurt, she had this to say on April 5, potentially revealing some clues for us:

Overall, the global outlook has weakened further over the last six months โ€” exacerbated by Chinaโ€™s relative slowdown, lower commodity prices, and the prospect of financial tightening for many countries. Emerging markets had largely driven the recovery and the expectation was that the advanced economies would pick up the ‘growth baton’ – That has not happened.

She went on to suggest that a strong U.S. dollar, high unemployment and shoddy balance sheets in Europe, and economic data from Japan have all reduced growth in key developed countries. Further, emerging markets such as China, Brazil, and Russia had all faced more challenges than expected, and that the Middle East’s growth got hammered by weak energy prices.

Meanwhile, Lagarde saw India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam as bright spots.

Later in the speech, she pulled no punches on potential global risks, mentioning “high debt” as the first risk to making recovery progress:

For advanced economies, [risks] relate to longstanding crisis legacies โ€” high debt, low inflation, low investment, low productivity, and, for some, high unemployment.

While Lagarde made it clear that there has been a “loss of momentum” and that the IMF is “on alert, not alarm”, this could be a clue that the reality is setting in for the IMF: a sustained, real recovery is not in the cards unless giant obstacles are overcome. We believe this could take a prolonged time to truly correct, or that it could eventually happen after a major reset to our financial and political systems.

Either way, for once it seems possible (though improbable), that the IMF may finally see things the same way.

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Chart of the Week

The Economies Adding the Most to Global Growth in 2019

Global economics is effectively a numbers game – here are the countries and regions projected to contribute the most to global growth in 2019.

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The Economies Adding the Most to Global Growth in 2019

Global economics is effectively a numbers game.

As long as the data adds up to economic expansion on a worldwide level, it’s easy to keep the status quo rolling. Companies can shift resources to the growing segments, and investors can put capital where it can go to work.

At the end of the day, growth cures everything – it’s only when it dries up that things get hairy.

Breaking Down Global Growth in 2019

Today’s chart uses data from Standard Chartered and the IMF to break down where economic growth is happening in 2019 using purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Further, it also compares the share of the global GDP pie taken by key countries and regions over time.

Let’s start by looking at where global growth is forecasted to occur in 2019:

Country or RegionShare of Global GDP Growth (PPP) in 2019F
China33%
Other Asia (Excl. China/Japan)29%
United States11%
Middle East & North Africa4%
Euro Area4%
Latin America & Caribbean3%
Other Europe3%
Sub-Saharan Africa2%
Japan1%
United Kingdom1%
Canada1%
Rest of World8%

The data here mimics some of the previous estimates we’ve seen from Standard Chartered, such as this chart which projects the largest economies in 2030.

Asia as a whole will account for 63% of all global GDP growth (PPP) this year, with the lion’s share going to China. Countries like India and Indonesia will contribute to the “Other Asia” share, and Japan will only contribute 1% to the global growth total.

In terms of developed economies, the U.S. will lead the pack (11%) in contributing to global growth. Europe will add 8% between its various sub-regions, and Canada will add 1%.

Share of Global Economy Over Time

Based on the above projections, we were interested in taking a look at how each region or country’s share of global GDP (PPP) has changed over recent decades.

This time, we used IMF projections from its data mapper tool to loosely approximate the regions above, though there are some minor differences in how the data is organized.

Country or RegionShare of GDP (PPP, 1980)Share of GDP (PPP, 2019F)Change
Developing Asia8.9%34.1%+25.2 pp
European Union29.9%16.0%-13.9 pp
United States21.6%15.0%-6.6 pp
Latin America & Caribbean12.2%7.4%-4.8 pp
Middle East & North Africa8.6%6.5%-2.1 pp
Sub-Saharan Africa2.4%3.0%+0.6 pp

In the past 40 years or so, Developing Asia has increased its share of the global economy (in PPP terms) from 8.9% to an estimated 34.1% today. This dominant region includes China, India, and other fast-growing economies.

The European Union and the United States combined for 51.5% of global productivity in 1980, but they now account for 31% of the total economic mix. Similarly, the Latin America and MENA regions are seeing similar decreases in their share of the economic pie.

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Chart of the Week

Map: Cities With the Most Ultra-Rich Residents

What cities are the world’s ultra-rich flocking to? This map looks at ultra high net worth individual (UHNWI) growth rates in cities around the world.

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Mapped: The Cities With the Most Ultra-Rich Residents

As of 2018, there is a grand total of 198,342 ultra high net worth individuals (UHNWIs) globally with assets over US$30 million, according to the most recent edition of Knight Frank’s Wealth Report.

Although these millionaires and billionaires can be found all over the globe, the reality is that most of the world’s ultra-rich population tends to congregate in world-class cities.

Generally speaking, UHNWIs are looking to live in places that are conducive to safeguarding and growing their wealth, but that also give them access to top-end amenities that allow them to live comfortably and luxuriously.

Top 10 Cities for the Ultra-Rich

To start, we’ll look at a list of global cities, organized by expected number of UHNWIs in 2023:

RankCityUHNWIs (2018)UHNWIs (2023e)Change (%)
#1๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง London4,9446,01521.7%
#2๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore3,5984,39322.1%
#3๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Tokyo3,7324,12510.5%
#4๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ New York City3,3783,89115.2%
#5๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Beijing1,6732,24734.3%
#6๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Paris1,6672,03121.8%
#7๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท Seoul1,5942,02026.7%
#8๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taipei1,5191,86422.7%
#9๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Zurich1,5071,79619.2%
#10๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Shanghai1,2631,69033.8%

London continues to top the list, with a roster of 4,944 ultra-rich residents today and the projected growth over the coming years to eclipse the 6,000 mark by 2023.

Tokyo has the second highest amount of UHNWIs today, but the city is adding them at a slower rate than other rival cities. As a result, Singapore will move into the #2 spot overall by 2023, with an expected total of 4,393 high net worth residents.

Finally, it’s worth noting that only two cities on the top 10 list are expected to see growth above a 30% clip over this five-year period. Shanghai and Beijing could be cities to watch for decades to come, as they add millionaires and billionaires at a faster rate than any of the other heavyweights.

Fastest Growing Cities

Where are the billionaire meccas of the future?

Here are the 10 cities that are expected to add UHNWIs the fastest between 2018-2023:

RankCityUHNWIs (2018)UHNWIs (2023e)Change (%)
#1๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Mumbai7971,10138.1%
#2๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Delhi21129137.9%
#3๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Manila 11515736.5%
#4๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Shenzhen52770834.3%
#5๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Beijing1,6732,24734.3%
#6๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Guangzhou39452934.3%
#7๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Shanghai1,2631,69033.8%
#8๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Jakarta40152931.9%
#9๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Kuala Lumpur37649631.9%
#10๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท Seoul1,5942,02026.7%

Not surprisingly, all 10 of these cities are located in Asia.

Two Indian cities (Delhi and Mumbai) top the list, and are likely to add nearly 40% to their ultra-rich populations over the next five years. China also has a strong showing here.

Interestingly, just missing the above top 10 were a few non-Asian cities: Auckland (#11), Madrid (#12), Munich (#13), and Nairobi (#14) are all expected to grow their UHNWI populations by roughly 25% by 2023.

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