Green
Explained: The Relationship Between Climate Change and Wildfires
How Climate Change is Influencing Wildfires
Each year, thousands of wildfires burn through millions of acres of land around the world.
We’ve already seen the mass devastation that wildfires can bring, especially in places like Australia, Serbia, and California. But new research by the UN indicates that things might get even worse by the end of the century. By 2100, the frequency of wildfires could increase by up to 50%.
What’s causing this influx of wildfires around the world? Below, we dig into how climate change is impacting wildfires—and how in turn, wildfires are impacting climate change.
Climate Conditions That Support Wildfires
Before diving in, it’s worth going over the basics of wildfires, and how they get started in the first place. An area’s vulnerability to wildfires, also known as its fire regime, depends on three major conditions: its atmosphere, vegetation, and ignitions.
① Atmosphere
Atmosphere plays a big part in how sensitive an area is to wildfires. For instance, wind can increase oxygen supply in an area, which would help fuel a wildfire, and may even transfer embers to new locations.
② Vegetation
Vegetation is also a huge factor in whether or not an area is vulnerable to wildfires. A region with drier vegetation may catch fire more easily, and an area with more forest or shrubs provides more fuel for potential blazes.
③ Ignitions
An area that’s close to volcanic activity, or prone to lightning storms may be more susceptible to wildfires. However, human activity like campfires or faulty equipment can also trigger fires, so popular areas for camping or logging may be at higher risk as well.
While these conditions vary depending on the location, in general, fire regimes are being impacted by climate change, which is causing an influx in the duration and intensity of wildfires around the world.
The Fire Climate Feedback Loop
Since the 1850s, global surface temperatures have risen by about 1.0°C (1.8°F).
These increased surface temperatures have had far-reaching impacts on our climate—in the Northern Hemisphere, warmer temperatures have led to less snow, earlier arrival of spring, and ultimately longer, drier fire seasons.
These longer fire seasons have led to an influx of wildfires. But here’s the kicker—wildfires emit tons of carbon. In 2021, wildfires around the world emitted an estimated 1.76 billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, which for context, is more than double the annual emissions from the entire country of Germany.
This carbon gets trapped in our atmosphere and contributes to rising surface temperatures. In other words, more carbon creates more wildfires—and more wildfires create more carbon.
Extreme Weather Events Are Rising In General
It’s not just wildfires that are growing in frequency and intensity because of climate change—droughts, heatwaves, and floods are also becoming more common around the world.
This year, temperatures reached all-time highs across Europe, which wrecked havoc across the continent, impacted infrastructure, and even took lives.
Experts warn that this may become the new normal. To help mitigate risk, governments, policymakers, and companies need to band together to create safeguards and establish proper preventative measures.
Environment
Animation: Visualizing 140 Years of Global Surface Temperatures
Here’s a look at 140 years of global surface temperatures, highlighting the ten coldest and warmest years since 1880.
Creator Program
Animated: 140 Years of Global Surface Temperatures
For hundreds of years, Earth’s average surface temperature has been steadily increasing. And over the last decade, this global heating appears to have intensified.
Since 1880, the global average temperature has risen by an average of 0.08°C (0.14°F) every 10 years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
But since 1981, warming has been occurring at more than twice that rate, by about 0.18°C (0.32°F) per decade.
This graphic by Pablo Alvarez shows 140 years of global surface temperatures, highlighting the 10 coldest and warmest years from 1880-2021 using data from NOAA.
Global Surface Temperatures Over Time
Over the last century and a half, there have been fluctuations in global surface temperatures, with some of the coolest years on record occurring in the late 19th century and early 20th century.
However, the last two decades have seen unprecedented warming, with the 10 warmest years on record all occurring within the last 20 years. Here’s a look at the 10 hottest years since 1800, and how they compared to the 20th century average:
The 10 Warmest Years
| Rank | Year | Deviation from 20th Century Avg. (°C) |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2016 | +0.99 |
| #2 | 2020 | +0.97 |
| #3 | 2019 | +0.94 |
| #4 | 2015 | +0.93 |
| #5 | 2017 | +0.9 |
| #6 | 2018 | +0.82 |
| #7 | 2014 | +0.74 |
| #8 | 2010 | +0.72 |
| #9 | 2013 | +0.67 |
| #10 | 2005 | +0.66 |
As of this article’s publication, the warmest year on record was 2016, when temperatures were +0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 20th century average. After 2016, the second warmest year was 2020, when surface temperatures reached +0.97°C (1.75°F) higher than the previous century’s average.
What Factors Impact Earth’s Climate?
There are a number of natural factors that influence global surface temperatures, including phenomena such as:
- Volcanic activity
- Changes in the Earth’s orbit
- Shifts in ocean currents
However, scientists believe that our current rate of warming has been undoubtedly caused by human influence, especially because of our carbon and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
According to the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities.”
In other words, while Earth’s surface temperature naturally fluctuates over the years, our actions have undoubtedly contributed to recent changes in Earth’s climate.
What Are The Consequences?
We’re already seeing the impact of this warming, as the world struggles with extreme climate events like droughts, heatwaves, floods, and an influx of wildfires in places like Europe, the United States, and Australia.
These extreme weather patterns could become the new normal if left unchecked, which is why companies and policymakers around the world are embarking on different solutions—from targeting net zero goals to implementing technological innovations that could reduce emissions.
Energy
The U.S. Utilities Decarbonization Index
This graphic quantifies and compares the state of decarbonization among the 30 largest investor-owned utilities in the United States.
Introducing the NPUC Annual Utility Decarbonization Report 2022
Created in partnership by Visual Capitalist and Motive Power.
The U.S. Utilities Decarbonization Index
With the Biden administration targeting a zero-emissions power sector for the U.S. by 2035, how are the nation’s largest electric power providers faring in terms of decarbonization?
Together, Visual Capitalist and our sponsor National Public Utilities Council have developed the Annual Utility Decarbonization Index. The index quantifies and compares the status of decarbonization among the 30 largest investor-owned utilities in the United States.
Decarbonization is quantified by scoring companies on six emissions-related metrics based on publicly available data from 2020 (the latest available).
Why the 30 Largest IOUs?
Why does the Decarbonization Index specifically look at the 30 largest IOUs by electricity generation?
Well, these 30 utilities collectively generated around 2.3 billion megawatt hours (MWh) of electricity (including purchased power), making up over half of U.S. net electricity generation in 2020. Moreover, they also served over 90 million customers, accounting for roughly 56% of all electric customers in the country.
Therefore, it’s safe to say that the 30 largest IOUs have an important role in decarbonizing both the power sector and the U.S. economy. Since the residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors all use electricity, the decarbonization of utilities—the providers of electric power—can enable emissions reduction throughout the economy.
Decarbonization Index Methodology
For each of the six metrics used in the Decarbonization Index, utilities are scored on a scale of 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest), indicating whether they are trailing or leading, respectively. Scores for each metric are based on the range of figures for each metric divided into five equal buckets that the utilities fall into.
For simplicity, let’s suppose that the lowest reported total emissions figure is zero metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the highest is 100 metric tons. In that case, companies that emit fewer than 20 metric tons of CO2 will receive the highest score of 5. Those that emit between 20 and 40 metric tons of CO2 will receive a 4, and so on.
A utility’s overall decarbonization score is an average of their scores across the six metrics, summarized below:
- Fuel Mix:
The share of low-carbon sources (renewables, nuclear, and fuel cells) in the utility’s owned net electricity generation. We’ve assumed that the share of low-carbon sources can range from 0% to 100%, and scores are assigned based on that range. - CO2 Emissions Intensity:
The amount of CO2 emitted per megawatt-hour of owned and purchased electricity generation. - Total CO2 Emissions:
The sum of absolute CO2 emissions from owned and purchased electricity generation. While this overlooks the differing sizes of utilities, the rationale is that smaller unconsolidated utilities may find it easier to decarbonize than larger peers. - CO2 Emissions per Capita:
The amount of CO2 emitted from owned and purchased electricity generation per retail customer served in 2020. - Decarbonization Goals:
An evaluation of the utility’s interim greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals and net-zero targets. The baseline for this is 50% GHG emissions reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050 (utilities with baseline targets get a score of 2.5/5). - Low-Carbon Investment:
The share of planned capital expenditure (CAPEX) for electricity generation that is allocated to low-carbon sources. We’ve assumed that the share of CAPEX for low-carbon sources can range from 0% to 100%, and scores are assigned based on that range.
The data for these metrics comes from various sources including company sustainability reports, quantitative reporting templates from the Edison Electric Institute, and the Climate Disclosure Project’s Climate Change Questionnaire filings.
Explore all six metrics of the U.S. Utility Decarbonization Index
Download The NPUC Annual Utility Decarbonization Report for free.
The Annual Utility Decarbonization Index 2022
Before looking at numbers, it’s important to note that the Decarbonization Index is relative and compares the 30 largest IOUs to each other. Therefore, a score of 5 does not indicate full decarbonization or net-zero emissions. Instead, it suggests that the utility is doing particularly well relative to its peers.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the Annual Utility Decarbonization Index 2022:
| Rank | Company | Decarbonization Score |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Public Service Enterprise Group | 4.7 |
| #2 | NextEra Energy Resources | 4.7 |
| #3 | Pacific Gas and Electric | 4.5 |
| #4 | Avangrid | 4.2 |
| #5 | Exelon | 4.1 |
| #6 | Portland General Electric | 3.7 |
| #7 | Dominion Energy | 3.6 |
| #8 | Florida Power and Light | 3.6 |
| #9 | PNM Resources | 3.5 |
| #10 | Alliant Energy | 3.4 |
| #11 | Consolidated Edison | 3.4 |
| #12 | Fortis Inc. | 3.4 |
| #13 | American Electric Power | 3.3 |
| #14 | Consumers Energy | 3.3 |
| #15 | Evergy | 3.0 |
| #16 | NRG Energy | 3.0 |
| #17 | AES Corporation | 2.9 |
| #18 | Xcel Energy | 2.9 |
| #19 | WEC Energy | 2.9 |
| #20 | DTE Energy | 2.8 |
| #21 | Duke Energy | 2.8 |
| #22 | Entergy | 2.8 |
| #23 | TransAlta | 2.8 |
| #24 | Emera | 2.7 |
| #25 | Ameren | 2.6 |
| #26 | Berkshire Hathaway Energy | 2.5 |
| #27 | Oklahoma Gas & Electric Company | 2.4 |
| #28 | Southern Company | 2.3 |
| #29 | PPL Corporation | 2.2 |
| #30 | Vistra Corp. | 2.0 |
A small number of companies did not report data on certain metrics and have been excluded from scoring for those metrics (denoted as N/A). In such cases, the decarbonization score is an average of five metrics instead of six.
Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG), headquartered in New Jersey, tops this year’s rankings thanks to its low-emissions profile and ambitious climate goals. The company is aiming to achieve net-zero emissions from operations by 2030—five years ahead of the Biden Administration’s target and faster than any other utility on the list.
Tied with PSEG is NextEra Energy Resources, the clean energy-focused subsidiary of NextEra Energy. The company is the world’s largest producer of solar and wind power and generated 97% of its net electricity from low-carbon sources in 2020.
In third place is California’s largest utility, the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E). PG&E had the lowest emissions per capita of the 30 largest IOUs at 0.5 metric tons of CO2 per retail customer in 2020. That figure is significantly lower than the average of 11.5 metric tons across the 30 IOUs.
Rounding out the top five are Avangrid, a renewables-focused U.S. subsidiary of the Spanish Iberdrola Group, and Exelon, the nation’s largest utility by number of retail customers. Avangrid had one of the cleanest fuel mixes with 87% of its owned net electricity coming from low-carbon sources. Exelon is the nation’s largest provider of emissions-free electricity, generating around 157 million MWh or 86% of its owned net electricity from nuclear power.
Download the Full Utility Decarbonization Report
While the Decarbonization Index provides a look at the current status of utility decarbonization, there’s much more to uncover in the full report, including:
- The obstacles that utilities face on the path to decarbonization
- The detailed data behind the six individual metrics
- The U.S. utilities ESG report card
- The solutions and strategies that can help accelerate decarbonization
>> Click here to download the full report and find out everything you need to know about utility decarbonization.
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