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Animation: The Biggest Economies in 2030

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By 2030, the complexion of the global economy could look very different than it does today.

According to recent projections from Standard Chartered, a multinational bank headquartered in London, the next decade will see emerging markets like India and Turkey ascending the global economic ladder to become tomorrow’s powerhouses.

Visualizing the Boom in Emerging Markets

Today’s animation is based on a previous chart of the week we created that shows how economic growth is expected to unfold in the coming years.

View the projected change in rankings for the biggest economies from 2017 to 2030 below:

If the projections used in the above video prove to be accurate, the largest economy in 2030 will be China with $64.2 trillion in GDP after adjusting for purchasing power parity (PPP).

That’s nearly $20 trillion more than India, which will be the second largest by that time.

From Good to Great

While the sheer size of the Chinese economy is certainly an exclamation point, perhaps the more interesting story here is the ascent of developing markets in general.

By 2030, it’s projected that seven of the world’s 10 biggest economies will fall into that category:

RankCountryProj. GDP (2030, PPP)GDP (2017, PPP)% change
#1China$64.2 trillion$23.2 trillion+177%
#2India$46.3 trillion$9.5 trillion+387%
#3United States$31.0 trillion$19.4 trillion+60%
#4Indonesia$10.1 trillion$3.2 trillion+216%
#5Turkey$9.1 trillion$2.2 trillion+314%
#6Brazil$8.6 trillion$3.2 trillion+169%
#7Egypt$8.2 trillion$1.2 trillion+583%
#8Russia$7.9 trillion$4.0 trillion+98%
#9Japan$7.2 trillion$5.4 trillion+33%
#10Germany$6.9 trillion$4.2 trillion+64%

Over this timeframe, countries like Egypt, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and Brazil will all see their economies expand with triple-digit growth in PPP terms.

In particular, India’s economy will be buoyed by rapid population growth in its cities, which are some of the fastest-growing urban areas on the planet. At the same time, Egypt’s economy is expected to grow from $1.2 trillion to $8.2 trillion according to the bank – although we would add that this seems quite optimistic.

Finally, developed economies like the United States, Germany, and Japan will keep growing – but just not at the blistering pace of developing countries. If these projections turn out, the Japanese and German economies will round out the list with the #9 and #10 spots, respectively.

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Mapped: The Top 10 Billionaire Cities

Where do the most billionaires live? For years, NYC has topped the list of billionaire cities, but 2020 marked a monumental shift.

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top 10 cities for billionaires

Mapped: The Top 10 Billionaire Cities in 2020

In 2020, the world gained 493 new billionairesโ€”thatโ€™s one every 17 hours.

For the last seven years, New York City has been home to more billionaires than any other city in the world. However, last year marked a monumental shift in the status quo.

Beijing has unseated the Big Apple, and is now home to 100 billionaires. That’s one more billionaire than the 99 living in New York City.

Today’s map uses data from Forbes to display the top 10 cities that house the most billionaires.

Where do the Most Billionaires Live?

The richest of the rich are quite concentrated in cities, but some cities seem to best suit the billionaire lifestyle. Hereโ€™s a breakdown of the top 10 billionaire capitals and the collective net worth of all the ultra wealthy that live there.

RankCityRegionNumber of BillionairesNet Worth of the City's Billionaires
#1Beijing๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Asia100$484.3B
#2New York City ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ North America99$560.5B
#3Hong Kong๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Asia80$448.4B
#4Moscow๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Europe79$420.6B
#5Shenzhen๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Asia68$415.3B
#6Shanghai ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Asia64$259.6B
#7London ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Europe63$316.1B
#8Mumbai๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Asia48$265.0B
#9San Fransisco๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ North America48$190.0B
#10Hangzhou๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Asia47$269.2B

Some cities have some obvious billionaires that come to mind. New Yorkโ€™s richest person and former mayor, Michael Bloomberg, is worth $59 billion. Beijingโ€™s richest billionaire is the founder of TikTok (among other things), Zhang Yiming with a net worth of $35.6 billion.

In terms of the locations themselves, London, New York, and San Francisco are the only Western cities to make the list. Though New York was ousted from the top position last year, altogether the cityโ€™s billionaires are still worth more than Beijingโ€™s.

One new city to make the top 10 list of billionaire cities was Hangzhou, the home of Jack Ma. It booted out Singapore from the 10th spot.

East Meets West

More than half of the top 10 cities are located in Asia, providing evidence of the shift eastwards when it comes to seats of wealth. Five of the six Asian cities listed are all in China.

What’s helped lead to this?

The country has seen an e-commerce boom, not in the least thanks to the pandemic. Additionally, the efficient handling of COVID-19 has allowed the economy to get back on track much more quickly than other countries. According to the BBC, 50% of Chinaโ€™s new billionaires have made their wealth either through tech or manufacturing.

Four of the Chinese cities on the list also had the biggest billionaire growth in 2020. Each of them gained more than 10 net new billionaires:

  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Hangzhou: 21
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Shanghai: 18
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Shenzhen: 24
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Beijing: 33

The only other city to gain more than 10 new billionaires in 2020 was San Francisco with 11.

Now sitting at 698 billionaires, China is coming up on the 724 held by the United States. Beijing overtaking NYC could be the beginning of a larger tipping point.

Shifting Tides

Asia-Pacific’s collective 1,149 billionaires are worth $4.7 trillion, while U.S. billionaires are worth $4.4 trillion in total wealth.

Overall, it looks like the wealth tides may be turning as China continues to progress economically and more billionaires become based in the East over the West.

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Which Asian Economies Have the Most Sustainable Trade Policies?

The Sustainable Trade Index ranks 19 Asian economies and the U.S. across three categories of trade sustainability.

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Which Asian Economies Have the Most Sustainable Trade Policies?

To say that Asia has benefited from international trade is an understatement. By opening its economies to the rest of the world, the region has become a leading exporter in many of todayโ€™s most important industries.

Trade has also improved Asia’s quality of life, lifting over one billion people out of poverty since 1990. Without the proper controls, however, such rapid growth could have harmful effects on Asia’s environment and society.

In this infographic from The Hinrich Foundation, we break down the results of their 2020 Sustainable Trade Index (STI). Since 2016, this index has ranked 19 Asian economies and the U.S. across three categories of trade sustainability: economic, social, and environmental.

What Exactly is Sustainable Trade?

International trade is an important source of economic growth, enabling domestic businesses to expand, reach new customers, and gain exposure to foreign markets.

At the same time, countries that focus too heavily on exports put themselves at greater long-term risk. For example, an aggressive expansion into manufacturing is likely to impair the quality of a countryโ€™s air, while overdependence on a single product or sector can create an economy that is susceptible to demand shocks.

“The primary principle which underpins sustainable trade is balance. Trade cannot be pursued solely for economic gains, without considering environmental and social outcomes.”
– Merle A. Hinrich

Thus, sustainable trade supports not only economic growth, but also environmental protection and strengthened social capital. It involves finding a balance between short-term incentives and long-term resilience.

Measuring Sustainable Trade

The Sustainable Trade Index (STI) is based on three underlying pillars of trade sustainability. Every economy in the STI receives a score between 0 and 100 for each pillar.

PillarNumber of IndicatorsExamples of Indicators
Economic pillar21
  • Use of trade tariffs
  • Logistics performance
  • Growth in labor force
Social pillar12
  • Level of economic inequality
  • Presence of child labor
  • Educational attainment
Environmental pillar14
  • Level of air pollution
  • Reliance on natural resources
  • Environmental standards

The economic pillar measures a countryโ€™s ability to to grow its economy through trade, while the social pillar measures a populationโ€™s tolerance for trade expansion, given the costs and benefits of economic growth.

Last but not least, the environmental pillar measures a countryโ€™s proficiency at managing climate-related risks. Individual pillar scores are then aggregated to arrive at an overall ranking, which also has a maximum possible score of 100.

The Sustainable Trade Index 2020: Overall Rankings

For the first time in the STIโ€™s history, Japan and South Korea have tied for first place. Both countries have placed in the top five previously, but 2020 marks the first time for either to take the top spot.

RankEconomyOverall Score
1 (tied)๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan75.1
1 (tied)๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea75.1
3๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore70.2
4๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong68.3
5๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan67.0
6๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.66.2
7๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China56.5
8๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines55.9
๐ŸŒ Average55.1
9๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand50.5
10๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka50.4
11๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia49.5
12๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh49.4
13๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ Brunei48.5
14๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia47.8
15 (tied)๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India46.9
15 (tied)๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam46.9
17๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia46.3
18๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Laos46.1
19๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan43.9
20๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar40.3

Advanced economies like Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were also strong performers, each scoring in the high 60s. At the other end of the spectrum, developing countries such as India and Vietnam were tightly packed within the 40 to 50 range.

To learn more, here’s how each country performed in the three underlying pillars.

1. Economic Pillar Rankings

Hong Kong topped the economic pillar for the first time thanks to its low trade costs and well-developed financial sector. Financial services have increased their contribution to Hong Kongโ€™s GDP from 13% in 2004 to 20% in 2018.

The regionโ€™s recently initiated national security lawโ€”which has resulted in greater political instabilityโ€”may have a negative effect on future rankings.

RankEconomyEconomic Score
1๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong69.6
2๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore68.7
3๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China64.9
4๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea63.3
5 (tied)๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia61.2
5 (tied)๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.61.2
7๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan60.3
8๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ Brunei59.3
9 (tied)๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan58.6
9 (tied)๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines58.6
๐ŸŒ Average56.9
11๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh56.3
12๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia56
13๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka54.7
14๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam53.9
15๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia52.1
16๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India51.4
17๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar49.5
18๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand47.4
19๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan46.9
20๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Laos44.0ย 

China was also a strong performer, climbing to third for the first time. Asiaโ€™s largest economy benefits from a well-diversified group of trading partners, meaning it doesnโ€™t rely too heavily on a single market.

The bottom five countriesโ€”India (16th), Myanmar (17th), Thailand (18th), Pakistan (19th) and Laos (20th)โ€”suffered from issues such as payment risk, which is measured as the difficulty of getting money in and out of a country. This risk is especially damaging to trade because it discourages foreign direct investment.

2. Social Pillar Rankings

The social pillar features the highest average score, but also the largest gap from top to bottom. This gap has expanded over recent years, growing from 43.9 points in 2018 to 52.3 in 2020.

RankEconomySocial Score
1๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan88
2๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan87.3
3๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea86.9
4๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.83.1
5๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore63.1
6๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines62.4
7๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand60.9
๐ŸŒ Average59.1
8๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong57.8
9๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh55.8
10๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia53.6
11๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Laos53.0
12๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India52.5
13๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia52.4
14๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ Brunei51.6
15๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam50.4
16๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China50.2
17๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia46.2
18๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka46.1
19๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan45.6
20๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar35.7

Taiwan claimed the top spot for the second time, solidifying its reputation as Asiaโ€™s leader in human capital development. It performed well in the educational attainment indicator, with 93.6% of its population receiving a tertiary education.

China, despite its success in other pillars, only managed 16th. This was partly due to the effects of its now defunct one-child policy, which has been responsible for creating gender imbalances and a shrinking population.

3. Environmental Pillar Rankings

The environmental pillar has the lowest average score of the three. Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea were the only countries to score above 75.

RankEconomyEnvironmental Score
1๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan80.0
2๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore78.7
3๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong77.4
4๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea75.2
5๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China54.5
6๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.54.3
7๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan52.8
8๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka50.4
๐ŸŒ Average49.1
9๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines46.6
10๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand43.2
11๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia41.2
12๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Laos41.1
13๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan39.3
14๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India36.7
15๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam36.3
16๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh36.0
17๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar35.6
18๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ Brunei34.6
19๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia34.3
20๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia33.8

The top four performed well in areas such as air quality and water pollution, and with the exception of Hong Kong, have all introduced carbon pricing schemes in the past decade. This doesn’t mean these countries are without their flaws, however.

Land-constrained Singapore, for instance, ranked 16th in the deforestation indicator. The city-state is one of the densest population centers in the world, and has cut down forests to clear space for further settlement and urbanization.

Building Back Better From COVID-19

Despite the damage that COVID-19 has caused, there are some silver linings. This includes the environmental benefits experienced by China, where lockdowns reduced carbon emissions by 200 million tonnes in a single month. Itโ€™s been estimated that after two months, Chinaโ€™s reduced pollution levels saved the lives of 77,000 people.

These temporary improvements are an explicit reminder of the environmental and social costs associated with economic growth. In response, governments in Asia are taking steps to ensure the long-term sustainability of their nations. Japan and South Korea both announced their commitments to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, while China set a similar goal for 2060.

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