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All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization (2022)

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All of the World's Money and Markets in One Visualization (2022)

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All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization

The era of easy money is now officially over.

For 15 years, policymakers have tried to stimulate the global economy through money creation, zero interest-rate policies, and more recently, aggressive COVID fiscal stimulus.

With capital at near-zero costs over this stretch, investors started to place more value on cash flows in the distant future. Assets inflated and balance sheets expanded, and money inevitably chased more speculative assets like NFTs, crypto, or unproven venture-backed startups.

But the free money party has since ended, after persistent inflation prompted the sudden reversal of many of these policies. And as Warren Buffett says, it’s only when the tide goes out do you get to see “who’s been swimming naked.”

Measuring Money and Markets in 2022

Every time we publish this visualization, our common unit of measurement is a two-dimensional box with a value of $100 billion.

Even though you need many of these to convey the assets on the balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve, or the private wealth held by the world’s billionaires, it’s quite amazing to think what actually fits within this tiny building block of measurement:

What fits in a $100 billion box?

Our little unit of measurement is enough to pay for the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, while also buying every team in the NHL and digging FTX out of its financial hole several times over.

Here’s an overview of all the items we have listed in this year’s visualization:

Asset categoryValueSourceNotes
SBF (Peak Net Worth)$26 billionBloombergNow sits at <$1B
Pro Sports Teams$340 billionForbesMajor pro teams in North America
Cryptocurrency$760 billionCoinMarketCapPeaked at $2.8T in 2021
Ukraine GDP$130 billionWorld BankComparable to GDP of Mississippi
Russia GDP$1.8 trillionWorld BankThe world's 11th largest economy
Annual Military Spending$2.1 trillionSIPRI2021 data
Physical currency$8.0 trillionBIS2020 data
Gold$11.5 trillionWorld Gold CouncilThere are 205,238 tonnes of gold in existence
Billionaires$12.7 trillionForbesSum of fortunes of all 2,668 billionaires
Central Bank Assets$28.0 trillionTrading EconomicsFed, BoJ, Bank of China, and Eurozone only
S&P 500$36.0 trillionSlickchartsNov 20, 2022
China GDP$17.7 trillionWorld Bank
U.S. GDP$23.0 trillionWorld Bank
Narrow Money Supply$49.0 trillionTrading EconomicsIncludes US, China, Euro Area, Japan only
Broad Money Supply $82.7 trillionTrading EconomicsIncludes US, China, Euro Area, Japan only
Global Equities$95.9 trillionWFELatest available 2022 data
Global Debt$300.1 trillionIIFQ2 2022
Global Real Estate$326.5 trillionSavills2020 data
Global Private Wealth$463.6 trillionCredit Suisse2022 report
Derivatives (Market)$12.4 trillionBIS
Derivatives (Notional)$600 trillionBIS

Has the Dust Settled Yet?

Through previous editions of our All the World’s Money and Markets visualization, we’ve created snapshots of the world’s assets and markets at different points in time.

For example, in our 2017 edition of this visualization, Apple’s market capitalization was only $807 billion, and all crypto assets combined for $173 billion. The global debt total was at $215 trillion.

Asset2017 edition2022 editionChange (%)
Apple market cap$807 billion$2.3 trillion+185%
Crypto$173 billion$760 billion+339%
Fed Balance Sheet$4.5 trillion$8.7 trillion+93%
Stock Markets$73 trillion$95.9 trillion+31%
Global Debt$215 trillion$300 trillion+40%

And in just five years, Apple nearly quadrupled in size (it peaked at $3 trillion in January 2022), and crypto also expanded into a multi-trillion dollar market until it was brought back to Earth through the 2022 crash and subsequent FTX implosion.

Meanwhile, global debt continues to accumulate—growing by $85 trillion in the five-year period.

With interest rates expected to continue to rise, companies making cost cuts, and policymakers reining in spending and borrowing, today is another unique snapshot in time.

Now that the easy money era is over, where do things go from here?

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Markets

How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing

History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.

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Chart showing U.S. Equity Issuance Deal Value from 1980-2000. Equity Issuance goes up over time, with the 300% increase in 1983 highlighted at the end of the disinflation period.
The following content is sponsored by Citizens Commercial Banking

How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing

The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.

We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.

Disinflation vs. Deflation

The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.

Time PeriodMarch 1980-July 1983June 2022-April 2023*
Inflation at Start of Cycle14.8%9.1%
Inflation at End of Cycle2.5%4.9%

* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.

A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.

How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?

Looking to History

There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.

With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.

Equity Issuance

Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.

YearDeal Value
1980$2.6B
1981$5.0B
1982$3.6B
1983$13.5B
1984$2.5B
1985$12.0B
1986$24.2B
1987$24.9B
1988$16.9B
1989$12.9B
1990$13.4B
1991$45.2B
1992$50.3B
1993$95.3B
1994$63.7B
1995$79.7B
1996$108.7B
1997$106.5B
1998$97.0B
1999$142.8B
2000$156.5B

Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.

Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.

Debt Issuance

Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.

YearDeal Value Interest Rate
1980$4.5B11.4%
1981$6.7B13.9%
1982$14.5B13.0%
1983$8.1B11.1%
1984$25.7B12.5%
1985$46.4B10.6%
1986$47.1B7.7%
1987$26.4B8.4%
1988$24.7B8.9%
1989$29.9B8.5%
1990$40.2B8.6%
1991$41.6B7.9%
1992$50.0B7.0%
1993$487.8B5.9%
1994$526.4B7.1%
1995$632.7B6.6%
1996$906.0B6.4%
1997$1.3T6.4%
1998$1.8T5.3%
1999$1.8T5.7%
2000$2.8T6.0%

Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.

As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.

It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.

Then vs. Now

Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.

Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.

January 1981April 2023*
Inflation Rate
Annual
11.8%4.9%
Inflation Expectations
Next 12 Months
9.5%4.5%
Interest Rate
10-Yr Treasury Yield
12.6%3.7%
Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
7.5%3.4%
Nominal Wage Growth
Annual, Seasonally Adjusted
9.3%5.0%
After-Tax Corporate Profits
As Share of Gross Value Added
9.1%13.8%

* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.

The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.

What to Consider During Disinflation

Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.

  • High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
  • High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
  • Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.

In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.

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