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A Very COVID Christmas: The Pandemic’s Impact on Festive Spending

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festive spending infographic

The Pandemic’s Impact on Festive Spending

View the high-resolution of the infographic by clicking here.

From mass job losses to not seeing family and friends for months on end, the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed people to their limits in 2020.

As an incredibly difficult year draws to a close, people are starting to accept that this festive season will be anything but typical. But while a portion of consumers have reined in their spending due to financial uncertainty, others are spreading Christmas cheer by indulging in gifts for their loved ones.

The graphic above from Raconteur explores how consumers’ festive spending in the U.S. and UK has changed as a result of the ongoing pandemic.

Will the shift trigger permanent changes in the retail industry?

Festive Budget Breakdown

According creative agency Kinetic, half of all UK adults surveyed believe this Christmas is more important than ever before, with that figure rising to three quarters for 18-34 year olds.

However, given consumers’ concerns over the future of the economy, they are expected to reduce spending during the festive season. In the U.S. for example, spending will decline by 7% to $1,387 per household.

When it comes to how consumers plan to spend their hard-earned cash, some interesting insights emerge. As many have saved significantly on socializing and travel—which is down 34% year-on-year—they plan to put this money towards items for themselves instead of gifts and gift cards for others. These items include clothes, at-home entertainment, and home furnishings.

It therefore comes as little surprise that the global online home decor market is estimated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 13% between 2020-2024 with revenue of over $80 billion.

Dampening the Christmas Spirit?

Unsurprisingly, over half of all U.S. consumers are anxious about shopping in-store this holiday season. The vast majority have health and safety concerns, with 71% being the most worried about dealing with others who aren’t taking the virus seriously. This is closely followed by being around, or too close to others in stores.

Therefore, when it comes to physical shopping, people feel more comfortable in local stores or at outdoor markets and much less so in shopping malls.

Safety in Online Shopping

Considering this change in mindset, almost 60% of UK consumers said that they will be shopping online more this Christmas.

Here’s a closer look at how they plan to shop differently during the 2020 holiday season:

Shopping In-storeShopping Online
More12%59%
Same28%29%
Less60%12%

But while ecommerce sales are expected to spike over Christmas, delivery speeds and shipping delays are also major concerns for consumers. As a result, many of them started their shopping much earlier this year to avoid disappointment. In fact, over half of all UK shoppers had started their Christmas shopping before November had even arrived.

Bidding Adieu to 2020

The end to a painful year for many can’t come soon enough. But boarded-up storefronts, and “for sale” signs serve as a harsh reminder of the fragility of the retail sector and its reliance on consumer sentiment.

Even as we march forward guided by the hope of an effective vaccine, the future of retail remains uncertain. For consumers, their confidence will build once more, but how they choose to spend their money following the festive season will be more important for businesses and the economy than ever before.

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GDP

Visualizing U.S. GDP by Industry in 2023

Services-producing industries account for the majority of U.S. GDP in 2023, followed by other private industries and the government.

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u.s. gdp by industry

Visualizing U.S. GDP by Industry

The U.S. economy is like a giant machine driven by many different industries, each one akin to an essential cog that moves the whole.

Understanding the breakdown of national gross domestic product (GDP) by industry shows where commercial activity is bustling and how diverse the economy truly is.

The above infographic uses data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis to visualize a breakdown of U.S. GDP by industry in 2023. To show this, we use value added by industry, which reflects the difference between gross output and the cost of intermediate inputs.

The Top 10 U.S. Industries by GDP

As of Q1 2023, the annualized GDP of the U.S. sits at $26.5 trillion.

Of this, 88% or $23.5 trillion comes from private industries. The remaining $3 trillion is government spending at the federal, state, and local levels.

Here’s a look at the largest private industries by economic contribution in the United States:

IndustryAnnualized Nominal GDP
(as of Q1 2023)
% of U.S. GDP
Professional and business services$3.5T13%
Real estate, rental, and leasing$3.3T12%
Manufacturing$2.9T11%
Educational services, health care, and social assistance$2.3T9%
Finance and insurance$2.0T8%
Wholesale trade$1.7T6%
Retail trade$1.5T6%
Information$1.5T6%
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services$1.2T4%
Construction$1.1T4%
Other private industries$2.6T10%
Total$23.5T88%

Like most other developed nations, the U.S. economy is largely based on services.

Service-based industries, including professional and business services, real estate, finance, and health care, make up the bulk (70%) of U.S. GDP. In comparison, goods-producing industries like agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and construction play a smaller role.

Professional and business services is the largest industry with $3.5 trillion in value added. It comprises establishments providing legal, consulting, design, administration, and other services. This is followed by real estate at $3.3 trillion, which has consistently been an integral part of the economy.

Due to outsourcing and other factors, the manufacturing industry’s share of GDP has been declining for decades, but it still remains a significant part of the economy. Manufacturing of durable goods (metals, machines, computers) accounts for $1.6 trillion in value added, alongside nondurable goods (food, petroleum, chemicals) at $1.3 trillion.

The Government’s Contribution to GDP

Just like private industries, the government’s value added to GDP consists of compensation of employees, taxes collected (less subsidies), and gross operating surplus.

GovernmentAnnualized Nominal GDP
(as of Q1 2023)
% of U.S. GDP
State and Local$2.1T8%
Federal$0.9T4%
Total$3.1T12%

Figures may not add up to the total due to rounding.

State and local government spending, largely focused on the education and public welfare sectors, accounts for the bulk of value added. The Federal contribution to GDP amounts to roughly $948 billion, with 52% of it attributed to national defense.

The Fastest Growing Industries (2022–2032P)

In the next 10 years, services-producing industries are projected to see the fastest growth in output.

The table below shows the five fastest-growing industries in the U.S. from 2022–2032 in terms of total output, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

IndustrySectorCompound Annual Rate of Output Growth (2022–2032P)
Software publishersInformation5.2%
Computing infrastructure providers, data processing, and related servicesInformation3.9%
Wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite)Information3.6%
Home health care servicesHealth care and social assistance3.6%
Oil and gas extractionMining3.5%

Three of the fastest-growing industries are in the information sector, underscoring the growing role of technology and digital infrastructure. Meanwhile, the projected growth of the oil and gas extraction industry highlights the enduring demand for traditional energy sources, despite the energy transition.

Overall, the development of these industries suggests that the U.S. will continue its shift toward a services-oriented economy. But today, it’s also worth noticing how services- and goods-producing industries are increasingly tied together. For example, it’s now common for tech companies to produce devices, and for manufacturers to use software in their operations.

Therefore, the oncoming tide of growth in service-based industries could potentially lift other interconnected sectors of the diverse U.S. economy.

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