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Visualizing a Global Shift in Wealth Over 10 Years

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Visualizing a Global Shift in Wealth Over 10 years

Visualizing a Global Shift in Wealth Over 10 years

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

The world has now accumulated $215 trillion in private wealth, a 12% increase over 2017, according to the latest report by market research company New World Wealth.

This number today includes wealth held by the general population, as well as the 15.2M millionaires ($1M+ in assets), 584,000 multi-millionaires ($10M+ in assets), and 2,252 billionaires ($1B+ in assets) in the world.

But the picture of global wealth hasn’t always been constant – in fact, it’s always shifting based on market performance, the movement of high net worth individuals (HNWIs), demographic trends, and other factors.

Top Countries Adding Wealth

Over the last decade, from 2007 to 2017, here are the top countries based on percentage of new wealth added (in $USD terms):

RankCountryWealth Growth (2007-2017)
#1Vietnam210%
#2China198%
#3Mauritius195%
#4Ethiopia190%
#5India160%
#6Sri Lanka133%
#7Panama125%
#8Uruguay117%
#9Malta95%
#10Indonesia92%

Not surprisingly, plenty of developing markets made this list.

Vietnam, which had a 210% growth in wealth held over the last decade, is an emerging manufacturing hub. The market is projected by New World Wealth to grow a further 200% in the next 10 years, bolstered by strong growth in its local healthcare, manufacturing, and financial services sectors.

The small island nation of Mauritius is one of Africa’s brightest success stories, with a 195% growth in wealth over the last 10 years. With favorable tax policies, beautiful beaches, and better relative safety ratings, HNWIs have been moving to the island en masse.

Just missing the Top 10 list above are two developed economies: New Zealand and Australia. Interestingly, these two markets grew in wealth 90% and 83% respectively over the last decade, which is extremely impressive for countries that already had a solid base of wealth to start with.

Countries That Lost Wealth

Here are the markets that saw total wealth decrease over the last 10 years, in terms of U.S. dollars.

RankCountryWealth Growth (2007-2017)
#1Venezuela-48%
#2Greece-37%
#3Italy-19%
#4Spain-19%
#5Norway-17%
#6Portugal-13%
#7Netherlands-12%
#8France-11%
#9Finland-11%
#10Egypt-10%

The crisis in Venezuela had a particularly rough impact on wealth. The country, which was once the richest in South America, lost 48% of its wealth in $USD terms over the last decade.

It’s also worth mentioning that many of the countries that saw wealth decrease over this time period are European – that’s because the 2008 financial crisis (and the ensuing sovereign debt crisis) hit Europe particularly hard.

Greece bore the brunt of this impact, losing 37% of its wealth in the 2007-2017 period.

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Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, by Country

This graphic shows the gap in portfolio return expectations between investors and advisors around the world, revealing a range of market outlooks.

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Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, by Country

Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, by Country

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

How do investors’ return expectations differ from those of advisors? How does this expectation gap shift across countries?

Despite 2022 being the worst year for stock markets in over a decade, investors around the world appear confident about the long-term performance of their portfolios. These convictions point towards resilience across global economies, driven by strong labor markets and moderating inflation.

While advisors are optimistic, their expectations are more conservative overall.

This graphic shows the return expectation gap by country between investors and financial professionals in 2023, based on data from Natixis.

Expectation Gap by Country

Below, we show the return expectation gap by country, based on a survey of 8,550 investors and 2,700 financial professionals:

Long-Term Annual
Return Expectations
InvestorsFinancial
Professionals
Expectations Gap
🇺🇸 U.S.15.6%7.0%2.2X
🇨🇱 Chile15.1%14.5%1.0X
🇲🇽 Mexico14.7%14.0%1.1X
🇸🇬 Singapore14.5%14.2%1.0X
🇯🇵 Japan13.6%8.7%1.6X
🇦🇺 Australia12.5%6.9%1.8X
🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR12.4%7.6%1.6X
🇨🇦 Canada10.6%6.5%1.6X
🇪🇸 Spain10.6%7.6%1.4X
🇩🇪 Germany10.1%7.0%1.4X
🇮🇹 Italy9.6%6.3%1.5X
🇨🇭 Switzerland9.6%6.9%1.4X
🇫🇷 France8.9%6.6%1.3X
🇬🇧 UK8.1%6.2%1.3X
🌐 Global12.8%9.0%1.4X

Investors in the U.S. have the highest long-term annual return expectations, at 15.6%. The U.S. also has the highest expectations gap across countries, with investors’ expectations more than double that of advisors.

Likely influencing investor convictions are the outsized returns seen in the last decade, led by big tech. This year is no exception, as a handful of tech giants are seeing soaring returns, lifting the overall market.

From a broader perspective, the S&P 500 has returned 11.5% on average annually since 1928.

Following next in line were investors in Chile and Mexico with return expectations of 15.1% and 14.7%, respectively. Unlike many global markets, the MSCI Chile Index posted double-digit returns in 2022.

Global financial hub, Singapore, has the lowest expectations gap across countries.

Investors in the UK and Europe, have the most moderate return expectations overall. Confidence has been weighed down by geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and dismal economic data.

Return Expectations Across Asset Classes

What are the expected returns for different asset classes over the next decade?

A separate report by Vanguard used a quantitative model to forecast returns through to 2033. For U.S. equities, it projects 4.1-6.1% in annualized returns. Global equities are forecast to have 6.4-8.4% returns, outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade.

Bonds, meanwhile, are forecast to see 3.6-4.6% annualized returns for the U.S. aggregate market, while U.S. Treasuries are projected to average 3.3-4.3% annually.

While it’s impossible to predict the future, we can see a clear expectation gap not only between countries, but between advisors, clients, and other models. Factors such as inflation, interest rates, and the ability for countries to weather economic headwinds will likely have a significant influence on future portfolio returns.

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