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Visualizing a Global Shift in Wealth Over 10 Years

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Visualizing a Global Shift in Wealth Over 10 years

Visualizing a Global Shift in Wealth Over 10 years

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

The world has now accumulated $215 trillion in private wealth, a 12% increase over 2017, according to the latest report by market research company New World Wealth.

This number today includes wealth held by the general population, as well as the 15.2M millionaires ($1M+ in assets), 584,000 multi-millionaires ($10M+ in assets), and 2,252 billionaires ($1B+ in assets) in the world.

But the picture of global wealth hasn’t always been constant – in fact, it’s always shifting based on market performance, the movement of high net worth individuals (HNWIs), demographic trends, and other factors.

Top Countries Adding Wealth

Over the last decade, from 2007 to 2017, here are the top countries based on percentage of new wealth added (in $USD terms):

RankCountryWealth Growth (2007-2017)
#1Vietnam210%
#2China198%
#3Mauritius195%
#4Ethiopia190%
#5India160%
#6Sri Lanka133%
#7Panama125%
#8Uruguay117%
#9Malta95%
#10Indonesia92%

Not surprisingly, plenty of developing markets made this list.

Vietnam, which had a 210% growth in wealth held over the last decade, is an emerging manufacturing hub. The market is projected by New World Wealth to grow a further 200% in the next 10 years, bolstered by strong growth in its local healthcare, manufacturing, and financial services sectors.

The small island nation of Mauritius is one of Africa’s brightest success stories, with a 195% growth in wealth over the last 10 years. With favorable tax policies, beautiful beaches, and better relative safety ratings, HNWIs have been moving to the island en masse.

Just missing the Top 10 list above are two developed economies: New Zealand and Australia. Interestingly, these two markets grew in wealth 90% and 83% respectively over the last decade, which is extremely impressive for countries that already had a solid base of wealth to start with.

Countries That Lost Wealth

Here are the markets that saw total wealth decrease over the last 10 years, in terms of U.S. dollars.

RankCountryWealth Growth (2007-2017)
#1Venezuela-48%
#2Greece-37%
#3Italy-19%
#4Spain-19%
#5Norway-17%
#6Portugal-13%
#7Netherlands-12%
#8France-11%
#9Finland-11%
#10Egypt-10%

The crisis in Venezuela had a particularly rough impact on wealth. The country, which was once the richest in South America, lost 48% of its wealth in $USD terms over the last decade.

It’s also worth mentioning that many of the countries that saw wealth decrease over this time period are European – that’s because the 2008 financial crisis (and the ensuing sovereign debt crisis) hit Europe particularly hard.

Greece bore the brunt of this impact, losing 37% of its wealth in the 2007-2017 period.

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Markets

What History Reveals About Interest Rate Cuts

How have previous cycles of interest rate cuts in the U.S. impacted the economy and financial markets?

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Line chart showing the depth and duration of previous cycles of interest rate cuts.

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The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments

What History Reveals About Interest Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve has overseen seven cycles of interest rate cuts, averaging 26 months and 6.35 percentage points (ppts) each.

We’ve partnered with New York Life Investments to examine the impact of interest rate cut cycles on the economy and on the performance of financial assets in the U.S. to help keep investors informed. 

A Brief History of Interest Rate Cuts

Interest rates are a powerful tool that the central bank can use to spur economic activity. 

Typically, when the economy experiences a slowdown or a recession, the Federal Reserve will respond by cutting interest rates. As a result, each of the previous seven rate cut cycles—shown in the table below—occurred during or around U.S. recessions, according to data from the Federal Reserve. 

Interest Rate Cut CycleMagnitude (ppts)
July 2019–April 2020-2.4
July 2007–December 2008-5.1
November 2000–July 2003-5.5
May 1989–December 1992-6.9
August 1984–October 1986-5.8
July 1981–February 1983-10.5
July 1974–January 1977-8.3
Average-6.4

Source: Federal Reserve 07/03/2024

Understanding past economic and financial impacts of interest rate cuts can help investors prepare for future monetary policy changes.

The Economic Response: Inflation

During past cycles, data from the Federal Reserve, shows that, on average, the inflation rate continued to decline throughout (-3.4 percentage points), largely due to the lagged effects of a slower economy that normally precedes interest rate declines. 

CycleStart to end change (ppts)End to one year later (ppts)
July 2019–April 2020-1.5+3.8
July 2007–December 2008-2.3+2.6
November 2000–July 2003-1.3+0.9
May 1989–December 1992-2.5-0.2
August 1984–October 1986-2.8+3.1
July 1981–February 1983-7.3+1.1
July 1974–January 1977-6.3+1.6
Average-3.4+1.9

Source: Federal Reserve 07/03/2024. Based on the effective federal funds rate. Calculations are based on the previous four rate cut cycles (2019-2020, 2007-2008, 2000-2003, 1989-1992, 1984-1986, 1981-1983, 1974-1977).

However, inflation played catch-up and rose by +1.9 percentage points one year after the final rate cut. With lower interest rates, consumers were incentivized to spend more and save less, which led to an uptick in the price of goods and services in six of the past seven cycles. 

The Economic Response: Real Consumer Spending Growth

Real consumer spending growth, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, typically reacted to rate cuts more quickly. 

On average, consumption growth rose slightly during the rate cut periods (+0.3 percentage points) and that increase accelerated one year later (+1.7 percentage points). 

CycleStart to end (ppts)End to one year later (ppts)
July 2019–April 2020-9.6+15.3
July 2007–December 2008-4.6+3.1
November 2000–July 2003+0.8-2.5
May 1989–December 1992+3.0-1.3
August 1984–October 1986+1.6-2.7
July 1981–February 1983+7.2-0.7
July 1974–January 1977+3.9+0.9
Average+0.3+1.7

Source: BEA 07/03/2024. Quarterly data. Consumer spending growth is based on the percent change from the preceding quarter in real personal consumption expenditures, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Percent changes at annual rates were then used to calculate the change in growth over rate cut cycles. Data from the last full quarter before the date in question was used for calculations. Calculations are based on the previous four rate cut cycles (2019-2020, 2007-2008, 2000-2003, 1989-1992, 1984-1986, 1981-1983, 1974-1977).

The COVID-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis were outliers. Spending continued to fall during the rate cut cycles but picked up one year later.

The Investment Response: Stocks, Bonds, and Real Estate

Historically, the trend in financial asset performance differed between stocks, bonds, and real estate both during and after interest rate declines.

Stocks and real estate posted negative returns during the cutting phases, with stocks taking the bigger hit. Conversely, bonds, a traditional safe haven, gained ground. 

AssetDuring (%)1 Quarter After (%)2 Quarters After (%)4 Quarters After (%)
Stocks-6.0+18.2+19.4+23.9
Bonds+6.3+15.3+15.1+10.9
Real Estate-4.8+25.5+15.6+25.5

Source: Yahoo Finance, Federal Reserve, NAREIT 09/04/2024. The S&P 500 total return index was used to track performance of stocks. The ICE Corporate Bonds total return index was used to track the performance of bonds. The NAREIT All Equity REITs total return index was used to track the performance of real estate. Calculations are based on the previous four rate cut cycles (2019-2020, 2007-2008, 2000-2003, 1989-1992). It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Index definitions can be found at the end of this piece.

However, in the quarters preceding the last rate cut, all three assets increased in value. One year later, real estate had the highest average performance, followed closely by stocks, with bonds coming in third.

What’s Next for Interest Rates

In March 2024, the Federal Reserve released its Summary of Economic Projections outlining its expectation that U.S. interest rates will fall steadily in 2024 and beyond.

YearRange (%)Median (%)
Current5.25-5.505.375
20244.50-4.754.625
20253.75-4.03.875
20263.00-3.253.125
Longer run2.50-2.752.625

Source: Federal Reserve 20/03/2024

Though the timing of interest rate cuts is uncertain, being armed with the knowledge of their impact on the economy and financial markets can provide valuable insight to investors. 

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