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Growth and Decline: Visualizing U.S. Population Change by County

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Growth and Decline: Visualizing U.S. Population Change by County

Visualizing U.S. Population Change by County (2010-2018)

The American Heartland continues to feed the growth of urban centers — not only with its agricultural products and natural resources, but with its people as well.

Across the nation, coastal urban centers are adding new citizens, while rural counties are seeing their populations decline. Outside of this general trend, fracking has created some rare pockets of growth in rural areas, while coal mine closures have had the opposite effect.

Today’s map comes to us from Reddit user jinkinson, and it maps U.S. population change by county from 2010 to 2018, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Uneven Growth

From 2010 to 2018, the total United States population increased by 6% from 308,745,538 to 327,167,434. However, it’s clear that not all counties participated in this uptrend.

There are 3,142 counties counted as part of this map (Puerto Rico and U.S. territories excluded). Of these, 1,489 experienced positive growth, while 1,653 saw a decline.

Which Counties are Growing the Fastest?

America’s economy has grown for over a decade, but that growth increasingly concentrates in 1% of the nation’s counties.

In fact, just 31 counties were responsible for 32.3% of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Although economic concentration tells part of the story, a view of changing population patterns can help us see where physical growth is happening across the country.

Top 20 Counties for U.S. Population Growth

RankStateCounty Name2010 Population2018 Population% Change
#1North DakotaMcKenzie County6,36013,632114%
#2TexasLoving County8215285%
#3North DakotaWilliams County22,39835,35058%
#4TexasHays County157,107222,63142%
#5UtahWasatch County23,53033,24041%
#6TennesseeTrousdale County7,87011,01240%
#7TexasHudspeth County3,4764,79538%
#8FloridaSumter County93,420128,75438%
#9FloridaOsceola County268,685367,99037%
#10TexasComal County108,472148,37337%
#11TexasKendall County33,41045,64137%
#12IowaDallas County66,13590,18036%
#13GeorgiaForsyth County175,511236,61235%
#14TexasFort Bend County585,375787,85834%
#15TexasWilliamson County422,679566,71934%
#16FloridaSt. Johns County190,039254,26134%
#17North DakotaMountrail County7,67310,21833%
#18GeorgiaLong County14,46418,99831%
#19South DakotaLincoln County44,82858,80731%
#2VirginiaLoudoun County312,311406,85030%

At the top of the list is McKenzie County, North Dakota, which experienced a growth of 114% in its population from 2010 to 2018. This is due to the shale gas industry that flourished in the area. Interestingly, all of North Dakota’s active oil and gas rigs are in just four counties: McKenzie, Dunn, Williams, and Mountrail, three of which make the top 20 list above.

The fracking boom also fueled growth in Texas, where six counties made the list.

However, immediate economic success built on fracking sands and sensitive commodity prices may not be sustainable over the longer term. In fact, counties from a previous energy era are already seeing what happens when demand dries up.

Which Counties are Declining the Fastest?

If you look at a map of coal operations in the U.S. and compare it to the list of declining counties below, a stark pattern appears.

Half of country’s coal miners work in just 25 counties, and as mines close there are fewer economic opportunities available in those areas.

Top 20 Counties for U.S. Population Decline

RankStateCounty Name2010 Population2018 Population% Change
#1IllinoisAlexander County8,2386,060-26%
#2OklahomaBlaine County11,9439,485-21%
#3West VirginiaMcDowell County22,11318,223-18%
#4KansasMorton County3,2332,667-18%
#5ArkansasPhillips County21,75718,029-17%
#6TexasTerrell County984823-16%
#7TexasSchleicher County3,4612,895-16%
#8AlaskaPetersburg Borough3,8153,221-16%
#9ArkansasMonroe County8,1496,900-15%
#10LouisianaTensas Parish5,2524,462-15%
#11South CarolinaAllendale County10,4198,903-15%
#12MichiganOntonagon County6,780,5,795-15%
#13MississippiQuitman County8,2237,051-14%
#14AlabamaMacon County21,45218,439-14%
#15ArkansasLee County10,4248,985-14%
#16AlabamaPerry County10,5919,140-14%
#17VirginiaEmporia city5,9275,121-14%
#18MississippiCoahoma County26,15122,628-13%
#19ColoradoKit Carson County8,2707,163-13%
#20TexasMitchell County9,4038,145-13%

While coal counties have grim figures due to the changing domestic energy story, it’s Alexander County in Illinois that tops the list with a 26% decline in population over the time period.

In fact, the harsh reality is that 93% of Illinois’ counties have seen a decrease in population between 2010-2018.

State by State: Winners and Losers

The number of declining counties within a state reveals a larger picture. Visual Capitalist aggregated county level data to reveal the patterns of U.S. states.

State# Counties with Negative Growth# Counties with Positive Growth% of Counties with Negative Growth
Illinois93991%
Connecticut7188%
Kansas901586%
West Virginia46984%
Mississippi622076%
New York461674%
Nebraska662771%
Pennsylvania472070%
New Mexico231070%
Missouri793669%
Iowa683169%
Ohio583066%
Alabama432464%
Indiana593364%
Arkansas482764%
Michigan533064%
Louisiana392561%
Oklahoma443357%
Vermont8657%
Maine7654%
Kentucky635753%
Wyoming121152%
North Dakota272651%
Minnesota444351%
Rhode Island4450%
New Jersey101148%
Wisconsin343847%
Georgia738646%
South Carolina212546%
Virginia607345%
North Carolina435743%
South Dakota264039%
Alaska111838%
Texas9615838%
Nevada61135%
Tennessee326334%
Montana183832%
New Hampshire3730%
Maryland71729%
California154326%
Colorado164825%
Utah72224%
Florida155222%
Massachusetts31121%
Idaho93520%
Hawaii1420%
Oregon72919%
Arizona21313%
Washington2375%
Delaware030%
District of Columbia010%

Illinois tops the list with the most people leaving its counties, while areas such as the District of Columbia and Delaware experienced no declines.

What happens to a state where the majority of its counties are losing residents?

The Big Picture

Americans are seeking out opportunity where it resides: in the cities. The pursuit of fracking oil and gas created opportunities in regions beyond the coast or traditional urban centers.

However, the long term trend of concentration of people on coasts and in major urban centers will continue to impact infrastructure spending, labor mobility, and economic activity. America no longer derives the majority of its economic success from rural counties and industries.

It is unclear how rural counties will fare as their denizens continue to dwindle. What is clear is that the few that rely on natural resources for success will continue to experience the ups and downs of volatile commodity markets.

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Energy

Visualized: The Growth of Clean Energy Stocks

Visual Capitalist partnered with EnergyX to analyze five major clean energy stocks and explore the factors driving this growth.

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The teaser image shows the growth of clean energy stocks and hints at their cumulative five-year returns.

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The following content is sponsored by EnergyX

The Growth of Clean Energy Stocks

Over the last few years, energy investment trends have shifted from fossil fuels to renewable and sustainable energy sources. Long-term energy investors now see significant returns from clean energy stocks, especially compared to those invested in fossil fuels alone.

For this graphic, Visual Capitalist has collaborated with EnergyX to examine the rise of clean energy stocks and gain a deeper understanding of the factors driving this growth.

Sustainable Energy Stock Performance

In 2023, the IEA reported that 62% of all energy investment went toward sustainable sources. As the world embraces sustainable energy and technologies like EVs, it’s no surprise that clean energy companies provide solid returns for their investors over long periods. 

Taking the top-five clean energy stocks by market cap (as of April 2024) and charting their five-year cumulative returns, it is clear that investments in clean energy are growing:

CompanyPrice: 01/04/2019Price: 12/29/20245-Year-Return %
First Solar, Inc.$46.32$172.28272%
Enphase Energy, Inc.$5.08$132.142,501%
Consolidated Edison, Inc.$76.55$90.9719%
NextEra Energy, Inc.$43.13$60.7441%
Brookfield Renewable Partners$14.78$26.2878%
promotional graphic with a button and wheel that promotes the EnergyX investment site

But how does this compare to the performance of fossil fuel stocks? 

When comparing the performance of the S&P Global Oil Index and the S&P Clean Energy Index between 2019 and 2023, we see that the former returned 15%, whereas the latter returned an impressive 41%. This trend demonstrates the potential for clean energy stocks to yield significant returns on an industry level, sparking optimism and excitement for potential investors. 

A Shift In Returns

With global investment trends moving away from traditional, non-sustainable sources, the companies that could shape the energy transition provide investors with alternative opportunities and avenues for growth. 

One such company is EnergyX. The lithium technology company has patented a groundbreaking technology that can improve lithium extraction rates by an incredible 300%, and its stock price has grown tenfold since its first offering in 2021.

promotional graphic that promotes the EnergyX investment site

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