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Growth and Decline: Visualizing U.S. Population Change by County

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Growth and Decline: Visualizing U.S. Population Change by County

Visualizing U.S. Population Change by County (2010-2018)

The American Heartland continues to feed the growth of urban centers — not only with its agricultural products and natural resources, but with its people as well.

Across the nation, coastal urban centers are adding new citizens, while rural counties are seeing their populations decline. Outside of this general trend, fracking has created some rare pockets of growth in rural areas, while coal mine closures have had the opposite effect.

Today’s map comes to us from Reddit user jinkinson, and it maps U.S. population change by county from 2010 to 2018, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Uneven Growth

From 2010 to 2018, the total United States population increased by 6% from 308,745,538 to 327,167,434. However, it’s clear that not all counties participated in this uptrend.

There are 3,142 counties counted as part of this map (Puerto Rico and U.S. territories excluded). Of these, 1,489 experienced positive growth, while 1,653 saw a decline.

Which Counties are Growing the Fastest?

America’s economy has grown for over a decade, but that growth increasingly concentrates in 1% of the nation’s counties.

In fact, just 31 counties were responsible for 32.3% of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Although economic concentration tells part of the story, a view of changing population patterns can help us see where physical growth is happening across the country.

Top 20 Counties for U.S. Population Growth

RankStateCounty Name2010 Population2018 Population% Change
#1North DakotaMcKenzie County6,36013,632114%
#2TexasLoving County8215285%
#3North DakotaWilliams County22,39835,35058%
#4TexasHays County157,107222,63142%
#5UtahWasatch County23,53033,24041%
#6TennesseeTrousdale County7,87011,01240%
#7TexasHudspeth County3,4764,79538%
#8FloridaSumter County93,420128,75438%
#9FloridaOsceola County268,685367,99037%
#10TexasComal County108,472148,37337%
#11TexasKendall County33,41045,64137%
#12IowaDallas County66,13590,18036%
#13GeorgiaForsyth County175,511236,61235%
#14TexasFort Bend County585,375787,85834%
#15TexasWilliamson County422,679566,71934%
#16FloridaSt. Johns County190,039254,26134%
#17North DakotaMountrail County7,67310,21833%
#18GeorgiaLong County14,46418,99831%
#19South DakotaLincoln County44,82858,80731%
#2VirginiaLoudoun County312,311406,85030%

At the top of the list is McKenzie County, North Dakota, which experienced a growth of 114% in its population from 2010 to 2018. This is due to the shale gas industry that flourished in the area. Interestingly, all of North Dakota’s active oil and gas rigs are in just four counties: McKenzie, Dunn, Williams, and Mountrail, three of which make the top 20 list above.

The fracking boom also fueled growth in Texas, where six counties made the list.

However, immediate economic success built on fracking sands and sensitive commodity prices may not be sustainable over the longer term. In fact, counties from a previous energy era are already seeing what happens when demand dries up.

Which Counties are Declining the Fastest?

If you look at a map of coal operations in the U.S. and compare it to the list of declining counties below, a stark pattern appears.

Half of country’s coal miners work in just 25 counties, and as mines close there are fewer economic opportunities available in those areas.

Top 20 Counties for U.S. Population Decline

RankStateCounty Name2010 Population2018 Population% Change
#1IllinoisAlexander County8,2386,060-26%
#2OklahomaBlaine County11,9439,485-21%
#3West VirginiaMcDowell County22,11318,223-18%
#4KansasMorton County3,2332,667-18%
#5ArkansasPhillips County21,75718,029-17%
#6TexasTerrell County984823-16%
#7TexasSchleicher County3,4612,895-16%
#8AlaskaPetersburg Borough3,8153,221-16%
#9ArkansasMonroe County8,1496,900-15%
#10LouisianaTensas Parish5,2524,462-15%
#11South CarolinaAllendale County10,4198,903-15%
#12MichiganOntonagon County6,780,5,795-15%
#13MississippiQuitman County8,2237,051-14%
#14AlabamaMacon County21,45218,439-14%
#15ArkansasLee County10,4248,985-14%
#16AlabamaPerry County10,5919,140-14%
#17VirginiaEmporia city5,9275,121-14%
#18MississippiCoahoma County26,15122,628-13%
#19ColoradoKit Carson County8,2707,163-13%
#20TexasMitchell County9,4038,145-13%

While coal counties have grim figures due to the changing domestic energy story, it’s Alexander County in Illinois that tops the list with a 26% decline in population over the time period.

In fact, the harsh reality is that 93% of Illinois’ counties have seen a decrease in population between 2010-2018.

State by State: Winners and Losers

The number of declining counties within a state reveals a larger picture. Visual Capitalist aggregated county level data to reveal the patterns of U.S. states.

State# Counties with Negative Growth# Counties with Positive Growth% of Counties with Negative Growth
Illinois93991%
Connecticut7188%
Kansas901586%
West Virginia46984%
Mississippi622076%
New York461674%
Nebraska662771%
Pennsylvania472070%
New Mexico231070%
Missouri793669%
Iowa683169%
Ohio583066%
Alabama432464%
Indiana593364%
Arkansas482764%
Michigan533064%
Louisiana392561%
Oklahoma443357%
Vermont8657%
Maine7654%
Kentucky635753%
Wyoming121152%
North Dakota272651%
Minnesota444351%
Rhode Island4450%
New Jersey101148%
Wisconsin343847%
Georgia738646%
South Carolina212546%
Virginia607345%
North Carolina435743%
South Dakota264039%
Alaska111838%
Texas9615838%
Nevada61135%
Tennessee326334%
Montana183832%
New Hampshire3730%
Maryland71729%
California154326%
Colorado164825%
Utah72224%
Florida155222%
Massachusetts31121%
Idaho93520%
Hawaii1420%
Oregon72919%
Arizona21313%
Washington2375%
Delaware030%
District of Columbia010%

Illinois tops the list with the most people leaving its counties, while areas such as the District of Columbia and Delaware experienced no declines.

What happens to a state where the majority of its counties are losing residents?

The Big Picture

Americans are seeking out opportunity where it resides: in the cities. The pursuit of fracking oil and gas created opportunities in regions beyond the coast or traditional urban centers.

However, the long term trend of concentration of people on coasts and in major urban centers will continue to impact infrastructure spending, labor mobility, and economic activity. America no longer derives the majority of its economic success from rural counties and industries.

It is unclear how rural counties will fare as their denizens continue to dwindle. What is clear is that the few that rely on natural resources for success will continue to experience the ups and downs of volatile commodity markets.

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Energy

Mainstream EV Adoption: 5 Speedbumps to Overcome

The pace of mainstream EV adoption has been slow, but is expected to accelerate as automakers overcome these five critical challenges.

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Mainstream EV Adoption: 5 Speedbumps to Overcome

Many would agree that a global shift to electric vehicles (EV) is an important step in achieving a carbon-free future. However, for various reasons, EVs have so far struggled to break into the mainstream, accounting for just 2.5% of global auto sales in 2019.

To understand why, this infographic from Castrol identifies the five critical challenges that EVs will need to overcome. All findings are based on a 2020 survey of 10,000 consumers, fleet managers, and industry specialists across eight significant EV markets.

The Five Challenges to EV Adoption

Cars have relied on the internal combustion engine (ICE) since the early 1900s, and as a result, the ownership experience of an EV can be much more nuanced. This results in the five critical challenges we examine below.

Challenge #1: Price

The top challenge is price, with 63% of consumers believing that EVs are beyond their current budget. Though many cheaper EV models are being introduced, ICE vehicles still have the upper hand in terms of initial affordability. Note the emphasis on “initial”, because over the long term, EVs may actually be cheaper to maintain.

Taking into account all of the running and maintenance costs of [an EV], we have already reached relative cost parity in terms of ownership.

—President, EV consultancy, U.S.

For starters, an EV drivetrain has significantly fewer moving parts than an ICE equivalent, which could result in lower repair costs. Government subsidies and the cost of electricity are other aspects to consider.

So what is the tipping price that would convince most consumers to buy an EV? According to Castrol, it differs around the world.

CountryEV Adoption Tipping Price ($)
🇯🇵 Japan$42,864
🇨🇳 China $41,910
🇩🇪 Germany$38,023
🇳🇴 Norway$36,737
🇺🇸 U.S.$35,765
🇫🇷 France$31,820
🇮🇳 India$30,572
🇬🇧 UK$29,883
Global Average$35,947

Many budget-conscious buyers also rely on the used market, in which EVs have little presence. The rapid speed of innovation is another concern, with 57% of survey respondents citing possible depreciation as a factor that prevented them from buying an EV.

Challenge #2: Charge Time

Most ICE vehicles can be refueled in a matter of minutes, but there is much more uncertainty when it comes to charging an EV.

Using a standard home charger, it takes 10-20 hours to charge a typical EV to 80%. Even with an upgraded fast charger (3-22kW power), this could still take up to 4 hours. The good news? Next-gen charging systems capable of fully charging an EV in 20 minutes are slowly becoming available around the world.

Similar to the EV adoption tipping price, Castrol has also identified a charge time tipping point—the charge time required for mainstream EV adoption.

CountryCharge Time Tipping Point (minutes)
🇮🇳 India35
🇨🇳 China34
🇺🇸 U.S.30
🇬🇧 UK30
🇳🇴 Norway29
🇩🇪 Germany29
🇯🇵 Japan29
🇫🇷 France27
Global Average31

If the industry can achieve an average 31 minute charge time, EVs could reach $224 billion in annual revenues across these eight markets alone.

Challenge #3: Range

Over 70% of consumers rank the total range of an EV as being important to them. However, today’s affordable EV models (below the average tipping price of $35,947) all have ranges that fall under 200 miles.

Traditional gas-powered vehicles, on the other hand, typically have a range between 310-620 miles. While Tesla offers several models boasting a 300+ mile range, their purchase prices are well above the average tipping price.

For the majority of consumers to consider an EV, the following range requirements will need to be met by vehicle manufacturers.

CountryRange Tipping Point (miles)
🇺🇸 U.S.321
🇳🇴 Norway315
🇨🇳 China300
🇩🇪 Germany293
🇫🇷 France289
🇯🇵 Japan283
🇬🇧 UK283
🇮🇳 India249
Global Average291

Fleet managers, those who oversee vehicles for services such as deliveries, reported a higher average EV tipping range of 341 miles.

Challenge #4: Charging Infrastructure

Charging infrastructure is the fourth most critical challenge, with 64% of consumers saying they would consider an EV if charging was convenient.

Similar to charge times, there is much uncertainty surrounding infrastructure. For example, 65% of consumers living in urban areas have a charging point within 5 miles of their home, compared to just 26% for those in rural areas.

Significant investment in public charging infrastructure will be necessary to avoid bottlenecks as more people adopt EVs. China is a leader in this regard, with billions spent on EV infrastructure projects. The result is a network of over one million charging stations, providing 82% of Chinese consumers with convenient access.

Challenge #5: Vehicle Choice

The least important challenge is increasing the variety of EV models available. This issue is unlikely to persist for long, as industry experts believe 488 unique models will exist by 2025.

Despite variety being less influential than charge times or range, designing models that appeal to various consumer niches will likely help to accelerate EV adoption. Market research will be required, however, because attitudes towards EVs vary by country.

CountryConsumers Who Believe EVs Are More Fashionable Than ICE Vehicles (%)
🇮🇳 India70%
🇨🇳 China68%
🇫🇷 France46%
🇩🇪 Germany40%
🇺🇸 UK40%
🇯🇵 Japan39%
🇺🇸 U.S.33%
🇳🇴 Norway 31%
Global Average48%

A majority of Chinese and Indian consumers view EVs more favorably than traditional ICE vehicles. This could be the result of a lower familiarity with cars in general—in 2000, for example, China had just four million cars spread across its population of over one billion.

EVs are the least alluring in the U.S. and Norway, which coincidentally have the highest GDP per capita among the eight countries surveyed. These consumers may be accustomed to a higher standard of quality as a result of their greater relative wealth.

So When Do EVs Become Mainstream?

As prices fall and capabilities improve, Castrol predicts a majority of consumers will consider buying an EV by 2024. Global mainstream adoption could take slightly longer, arriving in 2030.

Caution should be exhibited, as these estimates rely on the five critical challenges being solved in the short-term future. This hinges on a number of factors, including technological change, infrastructure investment, and a shift in consumer attitudes.

New challenges could also arise further down the road. EVs require a significant amount of minerals such as copper and lithium, and a global increase in production could put strain on the planet’s limited supply.

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Visualizing the Range of EVs on Major Highway Routes

We visualize how far popular EV models will take you on real-world routes between major cities, and which are the most cost effective.

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The Range of EVs on Major Highway Routes

Between growing concerns around climate change, new commuting behaviors due to COVID-19, and imminent policy changes, the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is well under way.

By the year 2040, sales of electric vehicles are projected to account for 58% of new car sales, up from just 2.7% currently.

But switching from a gasoline car to an electric one is not seamless. With charging and range capacities to consider, and the supporting infrastructure still being slowly rolled out in many parts of the world, understanding the realities of EV transportation is vital.

Above, we highlight 2020 all-electric vehicle range on well-recognized routes, from California’s I-5 in the U.S. to the A2 autobahn in Germany. The data on estimated ranges and costs are drawn from the U.S. EPA as well as directly from manufacturer websites.

The EV Breakdown: Tesla is King of Range

For many consumers, the most important aspect of an electric vehicle is how far they can travel on a single charge.

Whether it’s for long commutes or out-of-city trips, vehicles must meet a minimum threshold to be considered practical for many households. As the table below shows, Tesla’s well-known EVs are far-and-away the best option for long range drivers.

VehicleRange (miles)Range (km)MSRPCost per mile
Tesla Model S Long Range Plus402647$74,990$186.54
Tesla Model X Long Range Plus351565$79,990$227.89
Tesla Model S Performance348560$94,990$272.96
Tesla Model 3 Long Range322518$46,990$145.93
Tesla Model Y Long Range316509$49,990$158.20
Tesla Model X Performance305491$99,990$327.84
Tesla Model 3 LR Performance299481$54,990$183.91
Tesla Model Y Performance291468$59,990$206.15
Polestar 2275443$59,900$217.82
Chevrolet Bolt EV259417$36,620$141.39
Hyundai Kona Electric258415$37,190$144.15
Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus250402$37,990$151.96
Kia Niro EV239385$39,090$163.56
Jaguar I-PACE234377$69,850$298.50
Nissan LEAF e+ S226364$38,200$169.03
Audi e-tron Sportback218351$69,100$316.97
Nissan LEAF e+ SV/SL215346$39,750$184.88
Audi e-tron204328$65,900$323.04
Porsche Taycan 4S Perf Battery Plus203327$112,990$556.60
Porsche Taycan Turbo201323$153,510$763.73
Porsche Taycan Turbo S192309$187,610$977.14
Hyundai IONIQ Electric170274$33,045$194.38
BMW i3153246$44,450$290.52
Nissan LEAF149240$31,600$212.08
MINI Cooper SE110177$29,900$271.82
Fiat 500e84135$33,460$398.33

In an industry where innovation and efficiency are vital, Tesla’s first-mover advantage is evident. From the more affordable Model 3 to the more luxurious Model S, the top eight EVs with the longest ranges are all Tesla vehicles.

At 402 miles (647 km), the range of the number one vehicle (the Tesla Model S Long Range Plus) got 127 miles more per charge than the top non-Tesla vehicle, the Polestar 2—an EV made by Volvo’s standalone performance brand.

Closer Competition in Cost

Though Tesla leads on overall range and battery capacity, accounting for the price of each vehicle shows that cost-efficiency is far more competitive among brands.

By dividing the retail price by the maximum range of each vehicle, we can paint a clearer picture of efficiency. Leading the pack is the Chevrolet Bolt, which had a cost of $141.39/mile of range in 2020 while still placing in the top 10 for range with 259 miles (417 km).

Just behind in second place was the Hyundai Kona electric at $144.15/mile of range, followed by the Tesla Model 3—the most efficient of the automaker’s current lineup. Rounding out the top 10 are the Nissan LEAF and Tesla Model S, but the difference from number one to number ten was minimal, at just over $45/mile.

Top 10 All-Electric Vehicles by Cost Efficiency
VehicleCost per mile
Chevrolet Bolt EV$141.39
Hyundai Kona Electric$144.15
Tesla Model 3 Long Range$145.93
Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus$151.96
Tesla Model Y Long Range$158.20
Kia Niro EV$163.56
Nissan LEAF e+ S$169.03
Tesla Model 3 LR Performance$183.91
Nissan LEAF e+ SV/SL$184.88
Tesla Model S Long Range Plus$186.54

Higher Ranges and Lower Costs on the Horizon

The most important thing to consider, however, is that the EV industry is entering a critical stage.

On one hand, the push for electrification and innovation in EVs has driven battery capacity higher and costs significantly lower. As batteries account for the bulk of weight, cost, and performance in EVs, those dividends will pay out in longer ranges and greater efficiencies with newer models.

Equally important is the strengthening global push for electric vehicle adoption. In countries like Norway, EVs are already among the best selling cars on the market, while adoption rates in China and the U.S. are steadily climbing. This is also being impacted by policy decisions, such as California’s recent announcement that it would be banning the sale of gasoline cars by 2035.

Meanwhile, the only thing outpacing the growing network of Tesla superchargers is the company’s rising stock price. Not content to sit on the sidelines, competing automakers are rapidly trying to catch up. Nissan’s LEAF is just behind the Tesla Model 3 as the world’s second-best-selling EV, and Audi recently rolled out a supercharger network that can charge its cars from 0% to 80% at a faster rate than Tesla.

As the tidal wave of electric vehicle demand and adoption continues to pick up steam, consumers can expect increasing innovation to drive up ranges, decrease costs, and open up options.

Correction: A previous version of this graphic showed a European route that was the incorrect distance.

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