Risk On: Stock Market Funds Are Injected With $44.5 Billion
Connect with us

Datastream

Risk On: $45 Billion Injected Into Stock Market Funds In One Week

Published

on

record stock market fund inflows

The Briefing

  • The end of 2020 witnessed a $44.5 billion weekly inflow into stock funds, a historic high
  • Diminishing uncertainty around the pandemic and U.S. presidential election are contributing factors to this increased investor appetite

Risk On, Risk Off

Few events can grasp the world’s attention in the same manner the pandemic and U.S. presidential election have. This attention also sparks conflict and discord—and thus, for some time, they’ve been identifiable risks as it pertains to financial markets.

The uncertainty that arises in relation to these two events is subsiding. The election is over and the roll out of vaccines has commenced.

For Wall Street and their forward looking estimates, greener pastures appear to be on the horizon. As a result, this has translated into record-breaking inflows into stock market funds near the end of 2020.

Stock Market Funds

In the week through November 11, 2020, $44.5 billion of stock market inflows were injected into markets through various funds—the largest weekly inflow into equity funds ever recorded.

The appetite for risk is also reflected in the options market, where call option volume is breaking all-time highs.

Taking a step back, here are the funds with the largest inflows in 2020:

TickerFund Name2020 Net Inflows ($ Millions)
VTIVanguard Total Stock Market ETF$32,623
VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF$21,431
BNDVanguard Total Bond Market ETF$17,217
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust$16,733
VXUSVanguard Total International Stock ETF$16,002
GLDSPDR Gold Trust$15,129
LQDiShares iBoxx USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF$15,020
VCITVanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF$14,790
AGGiShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF$12,475
BNDXVanguard Total International Bond ETF$11,929

One Funds Inflow Is Another Funds Outflow

Gold and fixed income, which tend to thrive in times of uncertainty, saw net outflows during the same week. Fixed income in particular has fared worse. The spread between U.S. bond and U.S. stock ETFs is widening, with almost $3 trillion more dollars in stock funds.

As Wall Street re-evaluates for rosier forecasts ahead, this may further widen the growing gap between these respective assets. Despite a volatile year where markets whipsawed, the S&P 500 finished 2020 up 16%, a boost from its historical average of 10-11%.

Where does this data come from?

Source: BofA Investment Strategies
Notes: Financial Data is for the week through November 11, 2020

Click for Comments

Datastream

How People Around the World Feel About Their Economic Prospects

In many of the world’s largest economies, including the U.S., Germany, and China, optimism around economic prospects sits at an all-time low.

Published

on

economic prospects of people around the world

The Briefing

  • Economic prospects are at an all-time low in nine countries, including the U.S., Canada, Germany, Japan, and China
  • China and the U.S. experienced the biggest year-over-year drops, at -8 p.p. and -6 p.p., respectively

How Countries Feel About Their Economic Prospects

Each year, the Edelman Trust Barometer report helps gauge the level of trust people place in various systems of power.

The report is also a useful tool to gauge the general mood in countries around the world—and when it comes to how people in developed economies feel about the near future, there’s a very clear answer: pessimistic. In fact, optimism about respondents’ economic prospects fell in the majority of countries surveyed.

Here’s a full look how many respondents in 28 countries feel they and their families will be doing better over the next five years. Or, put more simply, what percentage of people are optimistic about their economic circumstances?

Country% who are optimisticAll-time low?Change from 2021 (p.p.)
🇯🇵 Japan15%-1
🇫🇷 France18%-1
🇩🇪 Germany22%-2
🇮🇹 Italy27%0
🇳🇱 Netherlands29%-1
🇬🇧 UK30%+2
🇷🇺 Russia31%+1
🇨🇦 Canada34%-1
🇪🇸 Spain36%+1
🇰🇷 South Korea39%+6
🇺🇸 U.S.40%-6
🇦🇺 Australia41%-2
🇮🇪 Ireland42%-1
🇸🇬 Singapore43%-1
🌐 Global51%0
🇲🇾 Malaysia55%0
🇦🇷 Argentina60%-2
🇹🇭 Thailand60%-2
🇨🇳 China64%-8
🇿🇦 South Africa66%-2
🇲🇽 Mexico68%-1
🇧🇷 Brazil73%0
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia73%0
🇦🇪 UAE78%+6
🇮🇳 India80%0
🇮🇩 Indonesia81%+11
🇨🇴 Colombia83%-1
🇳🇬 Nigeria87%n/a
🇰🇪 Kenya91%-2

Interestingly, nine countries (those with checkmarks above) are polling at all-time lows for economic optimism in survey history.

Whose Glass is Half Empty?

Japanese respondents were the most pessimistic, with only 15% seeing positive economic prospects in the near term. Only 18% of French respondents were economically optimistic.

While most developed economies were slightly more optimistic than Japan and France, all are still well below the global average.

As tensions between China and the U.S. continue to heat up in 2022, there is one thing that can unite citizens in the two countries—a general feeling that economic prospects are souring. As the U.S. heads into midterm elections and China’s 20th National Party Congress takes place, leaders in both countries will surely have the economy on their minds.

Whose Glass is Half Full?

Of course, the mood isn’t all doom and gloom everywhere. The United Arab Emirates saw a 6 percentage point (p.p.) jump in their population’s economic prospects.

Indonesia saw an 11 p.p. increase, and in big developing economies like Brazil and India, the general level of optimism is still quite high.

In some ways, it’s no surprise that people in developing economies are more optimistic about their economic prospects. Living standards are generally rising in many of these countries, and more opportunities open up as the economy grows. Even in the most pessimistic African country surveyed, South Africa, the majority of people still see improving circumstances in their near future. In Kenya and Nigeria, an overwhelming majority are optimistic.

Diverging Outcomes

One major prediction that experts agreed on for the year ahead is that economic outcomes will begin to diverge between countries with differing levels of vaccine access.

While this doesn’t seem to have affected attitudes towards economic optimism yet, it remains to be seen how this will play out as the year progresses.

Where does this data come from?

Source: 2022 Edelman Trust Barometer

Data notes: This data is derived from Edelman’s annual Trust Barometer survey, which includes 30,000+ respondents in countries around the world.

Continue Reading

Datastream

The Accelerating Frequency of Extreme Weather

Extreme weather events, like droughts and heatwaves, have become more common over the years. But things are expected to get worse.

Published

on

Extreme Weather Events

The Briefing

  • We’re already seeing the impact of climate change—today, droughts, heatwaves, and extreme rainstorms are 2x more frequent than they were a century ago
  • In less than a decade, Earth’s climate is expected to warm another 0.5°C
  • If this happens, heatwaves will be 4.1x more frequent than they were in the 1850-1900s

The Accelerating Frequency of Extreme Weather

The world is already witnessing the effects of climate change.

A few months ago, the western U.S. experienced one of the worst droughts it’s seen in the last 20 years. At the same time, southern Europe roasted in an extreme heatwave, with temperatures reaching 45°C in some parts.

But things are only expected to get worse in the near future. Here’s a look at how much extreme climate events have changed over the last 200 years, and what’s to come if global temperatures keep rising.

A Century of Warming

The global surface temperature has increased by about 1°C since the 1850s. And according to the IPCC, this warming has been indisputably caused by human influence.

As the global temperatures have risen, the frequency of extreme weather events have increased along with it. Heatwaves, droughts and extreme rainstorms used to happen once in a decade on average, but now:

  • Heatwaves are 2.8x more frequent
  • Droughts are 1.7x more frequent
  • Extreme rainstorms are 1.3x more frequent

By 2030, the global surface temperature is expected to rise 1.5°C above the Earth’s baseline temperature, which means that:

  • Heatwaves would be 4.1x more frequent
  • Droughts would be 2x more frequent
  • Extreme rainstorms would be 1.5x more frequent

The Ripple Effects of Extreme Weather

Extreme weather events have far-reaching impacts on communities, especially when they cause critical system failures.

Mass infrastructure breakdowns during Hurricane Ida this year caused widespread power outages in the state of Louisiana that lasted for several days. In 2020, wildfires in Syria devastated hundreds of villages and injured dozens of civilians with skin burns and breathing complications.

As extreme weather events continue to increase in frequency, and communities become increasingly more at risk, sound infrastructure is becoming more important than ever.

Where does this data come from?

Source: IPCC
Details: The data used in this graphic is from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, which provides a high-level summary of the state of the climate, how it’s changing, and the role of human influence.

Continue Reading

Subscribe

Popular