Thanks to drastic increases in crop yields and the falling need for manual farm labor, a mass migration towards cities started in the years following the Industrial Revolution.
This phenomenon first originated in developed economies as people moved to work in factories that produced consumer goods at a scale never before seen. Then in the 1950s, developing economies started to follow suit.
The results have been staggering, and today a country like China has at least 35 massive cities that each have an economic output comparable to entire countries.
After many decades of urbanization, the portion of people living in urban areas has surpassed the total rural population. This happened in 2007, and we are now in the first window in human history in which more people are city dwellers.
So what cities are the meccas for urban migration today? And which are falling out of favor?
The Fastest Growing Cities (2000-2016)
The following interactive and zoomable map was put together by Datawrapper, using data from the United Nations.
It lists 500 cities with over 1 million people, and is shaded based on annualized population growth rate between 2000 and 2016. Percent growth corresponds with darker shades of teal, while orange symbolizes negative growth over the timeframe.
It’s strongly recommended to explore the map by zooming in on particular regions. Highlighting cities themselves will give you population details for 2000 and 2016, as well as an annualized percentage growth rate.
Here are some areas we thought were worth looking at in more detail:
North America is mostly what one may expect. The biggest cities (NYC, LA, Chicago, Toronto) aren’t changing too fast, while some cities in the Rust Belt (Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh) have slightly negative growth rates. Austin, TX and Charlotte, NC seem to be the fastest growing cities in the U.S., overall.
Colombia’s Bogotá stands out as the city in South America growing at the most blistering pace. It gained 3.6 million people in the 2000-2016 year period, good for a 2.8% annual growth rate.
China and India
These two populous countries are home to many of the dark-shaded circles on the map. It’s worth looking at an additional screenshot here (just in case if you haven’t zoomed in above).
Look at the coast of China – it’s dotted with rapidly expanding cities. Incredibly, in the 16-year span of data, some of these cities have doubled in terms of population. Others like Xiamen have tripled in size. Shanghai alone has gained 10.5 million people in this span of time.
In India, the fastest growing cities are in the south, where there are at least 10 large cities that have roughly doubled in size. Delhi, which is in the north, has added nearly 11 million inhabitants over the same stretch.
In Africa, we see the names of many of the cities that are projected to be the world’s largest megacities by 2100.
Lagos in Nigeria has doubled to nearly 14 million people between 2000-2016, and it is expected to explode to 88.3 million people by 2100 to be the world’s most populous city overall. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Kinshasa (DRC) are two other places that are set to grow rapidly by 2100, rounding out the list of the world’s three most populous megacities.
Charting the Rise and Fall of the Global Luxury Goods Market
This infographic charts the rise and fall of the $308 billion global personal luxury market, and explores what the coming year holds for its growth
The Rise and Fall of the Global Luxury Goods Market
Global demand for personal luxury goods has been steadily increasing for decades, resulting in an industry worth $308 billion in 2019.
However, the insatiable desire for consumers to own nice things was suddenly interrupted by the coming of COVID-19, and experts are predicting a brutal contraction of up to one-third of the current luxury good market size this year.
Will the industry bounce back? Or will it return as something noticeably different?
A Once Promising Trajectory
The global luxury goods market—which includes beauty, apparel, and accessories—has compounded at a 6% pace since the 1990s.
Recent years of growth in the personal luxury goods market can be mostly attributed to Chinese consumers. This geographic market accounted for 90% of total sales growth in 2019, followed by the Europe and the Americas.
Analysts suggest that China’s younger luxury goods consumers in particular have significant spending power, with an average spend of $6,000 (¥41,000) per person in pre-COVID times.
An Industry Now in Distress
The lethal combination of reduced foot traffic and decreased consumer spending in the first quarter of 2020 has brought the retail industry to its knees.
In fact, more than 80% of fashion and luxury players will experience financial distress as a result of extended store closures.
With iconic luxury retailers such as Neiman Marcus filing for bankruptcy, the pressure on the luxury industry is clear. It should be noted however, that companies who were experiencing distress before the COVID-19 outbreak will be the hardest hit.
Predicting the Collapse
In a recent report, Bain & Company estimated a 25% to 30% global luxury market contraction for the first quarter of 2020 based on several economic variables. They have also modeled three scenarios to predict the performance for the remainder of 2020.
- Optimistic scenario: A limited market contraction of 15% to 18%, assuming increased consumer demand for the second and third quarter of the year, roughly equating to a sales decline of $46 billion to $56 billion.
- Intermediate scenario: A moderate market contraction of between 22% and 25%, or $68 to $77 billion.
- Worst-case scenario: A steep contraction of between 30% and 35%, equating to $92 billion to $108 billion. This assumes a longer period of sales decline.
Although there are signs of recovery in China, the industry is not expected to fully return to 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest. By that stage, the industry could have transformed entirely.
Changing Consumer Mindsets
Since the beginning of the pandemic, one-quarter of consumers have delayed purchasing luxury items. In fact, a portion of those who have delayed purchasing luxury goods are now considering entirely new avenues, such as seeking out cheaper alternatives.
However, most people surveyed claim that they will postpone buying luxury items until they can get a better deal on price.
This frugal mindset could spark an interesting behavioral shift, and set the stage for a new category to emerge from the ashes—the second-hand luxury market.
Numerous sources claim that pre-owned luxury could in fact overtake the traditional luxury market, and the pandemic economy could very well be a tipping point.
The Future of Luxury
Medium-term market growth could be driven by a number of factors, from a global growing middle class and their demand for luxury products, as well as retailers’ sudden shift to e-commerce.
While analysts can only rely on predictions to determine the future of personal luxury, it is clear that the industry is at a crossroads.
The New Energy Era: The Impact of Critical Minerals on National Security
The U.S. finds itself in a precarious position, depending largely on China and other foreign nations for the critical minerals needed in the new energy era.
In 1954, the United States was only fully reliant on foreign sources for eight mineral commodities.
Fast forward 60+ years, and the country now depends on foreign sources for 20 such materials, including ones essential for military and battery technologies.
This puts the U.S. in a precarious position, depending largely on China and other foreign nations for the crucial materials such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth metals that can help build and secure a more sustainable future.
America’s Energy Dependence
Today’s visualization comes from Standard Lithium, and it outlines China’s dominance of the critical minerals needed for the new energy era.
Which imported minerals create the most risk for U.S. supply chains and national security?
Natural Resources and Development
Gaining access to natural resources can influence a nation’s ability to grow and defend itself. China’s growth strategy took this into account, and the country sourced massive amounts of raw materials to position the country as the number one producer and consumer of commodities.
By the end of the second Sino-Japanese War in 1945, China’s mining industry was largely in ruins. After the war, vast amounts of raw materials were required to rebuild the country.
In the late 1970s, the industry was boosted by China’s “reform and opening” policies, and since then, China’s mining outputs have increased enormously. China’s mining and material industries fueled the rapid growth of China from the 1980s onwards.
Supply Chain Dominance
A large number of Chinese mining companies also invest in overseas mining projects. China’s “going out” strategy encourages companies to move into overseas markets.
They have several reasons to mine beyond its shores: to secure mineral resources that are scarce in China, to gain access to global markets and mineral supply chains, and to minimize domestic overproduction of some mineral commodities.
This has led to China to become the leading producer of many of the world’s most important metals while also securing a commanding position in key supply chains.
As an example of this, China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of rare earth materials. The country produces approximately 94% of the rare earth oxides and around 100% of the rare earth metals consumed globally, with 50% going to domestic consumption.
U.S.-China Trade Tensions
The U.S. drafted a list of 35 critical minerals in 2018 that are vital to national security, and according to the USGS, the country sources at least 31 of the materials chiefly through imports.
China is the third largest supplier of natural resources to the U.S. behind Canada and Mexico.
|Rank||Country||U.S. Minerals Imports By Country ($US, 2018)|
This dependence on China poses a risk. In 2010, a territorial dispute between China and Japan threatened to disrupt the supply of the rare earth elements. Today, a similar threat still looms over trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
China’s scale of influence over critical minerals means that it could artificially limit supply and move prices in the global clean energy trade, in the same way that OPEC does with oil. This would leave nations that import their mineral needs in an expensive and potentially limiting spot.
Moon Shot: Building Domestic Supply and Production
Every supply chain starts with raw materials. The U.S. had the world’s largest lithium industry until the 1990s—but this is no longer the case, even though the resources are still there.
The U.S. holds 12% of the world’s identified lithium resources, but only produces 2% of global production from a single mine in Nevada.
There are a handful of companies looking to develop the U.S. lithium reserves, but there is potential for so much more. Less than 18% of the U.S. land mass is geologically mapped at a scale suited to identifying new mineral deposits.
The United States has the resources, it is just a question of motivation. Developing domestic resources can reduce its foreign dependence, and enable it to secure the new energy era.
In the clean energy economy of the future, critical minerals will be just as essential—and geopolitical—as oil is today.
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