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Commodities: The Top Asset Class of 2018 So Far

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Commodities: The Top Asset Class of 2018 So Far

Commodities: The Top Asset Class of 2018 So Far

Is the commodity supercycle coming back from the dead?

For now, such a claim could perhaps be considered both bold and premature – but there does seem to be some compelling evidence that is mounting to back it up.

The Asset Quilt

According to the most recent “Asset Quilt of Total Returns” put together by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, commodities are the top returning asset class of 2018 so far. The chart, which shows the total returns of asset classes over the years, has commodities at an annualized return of 22.7% year-to-date.

Right behind it is gold, which sits at 11.6% on an annualized basis:

RankAsset ClassTotal Returns (2018*)
#1Commodities22.7%
#2Gold11.6%
#3Equities (Emerging Markets)6.5%
#4Equities (S&P 500)6.3%
#5Equities (Europe, Australasia, Far East)5.9%
#6Global Bonds (High Yield)3.4%
#7Cash1.4%
#8Global Bonds (Investment Grade)-2.0%
#9U.S. Treasuries-5.7%
#10Real Estate-14.6%

*These returns are annualized in order to compare them with past years

Interestingly, commodities haven’t been on top of BAML’s chart since the years 2000 and 2002, which were at the beginning of the last commodity supercycle.

A Deeper Dive

Here is how commodities have fared from 2000 to 2018, based on annual returns. If the commodity sector keeps the pace for the rest of 2018, this will be the best year for the asset class since 2003.

Commodity performance 2000-2018

For various reasons, commodities have bounced back in the last three years.

The return of oil prices have helped to resurrect the sector. Ironically, the anticipated metal demand from renewable energy – which will be used to wean society off of fossil fuel consumption – is also a massive driver behind commodities right now.

Not only are base metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel essential for the “electrification of everything”, but lesser-known materials like lithium, cobalt, rare earths, vanadium, uranium, and graphite all play essential roles as well. They do everything from enabling lithium-ion batteries and vanadium flow batteries, to making possible the permanent magnets that generate electricity from wind turbines.

The environment for investing in commodities is the best since 2004-2008.

– Goldman Sachs, February 2018

Not surprisingly, here are how metal and energy commodities have performed since January 1, 2016:

CommodityPrice Change (Since Jan 1, 2016)
Vanadium459%
Cobalt277%
Palladium88%
Oil (WTI)86%
Nickel72%
Aluminum70%
Copper46%
Gold26%
Silver24%
Natural Gas21%
Platinum7%
Coal-8%
Uranium-40%

Some minor metals, like vanadium, have increased by over 400% in price in the last two years. That begs the question: how much room could there possibly be for price appreciation left?

Supercycle Potential

As Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors described in a recent post, the last boom was so prolific that investing in an index tracking commodities (such as the S&P GSCI) in 2000 would have resulted in the equivalent of 10% annual returns for ten years.

He also shared this chart, which shows the ratio in value between commodities and the S&P 500:

Commodities vs. Equities

In other words, commodities seem to be more undervalued than any time in the past 20 years, at least relative to equity indices such as the S&P 500.

Even if the above ratio comes back up to the median of 3.5, it’s clear that there could still be vast amounts of opportunity available in the sector for investors.

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Graphene: An Investor’s Guide to the Emerging Market

The market value of graphene could reach $3.75 billion by 2030. As the emerging industry shows fast growth, it also faces obstacles.

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The following content is sponsored by HydroGraph

Graphene: An Investor’s Guide to the Emerging Market

Graphene is an atomic-scale “honeycomb” that is revolutionizing the world of materials and capturing investor attention.

Experts predict that its market value could reach the billion-dollar threshold by 2027 and soar to a staggering $3.75 billion by 2030.

In this infographic sponsored by HydroGraph, we dive into everything investors need to know about this exciting industry and where it’s headed.

Promising Properties

Graphene possesses several unique physical properties which contribute to its wide range of potential applications.

  • 200 times stronger than steel
  • Harder than diamonds
  • 1,000 times lighter than paper
  • 98% transparent
  • Higher electrical conductivity than copper
  • Heat conductivity: 5 times that of copper
  • 2,630 m² of surface area per gram

Since its first successful isolation in 2004, graphene’s properties have opened the doors to a multitude of commercial applications and products.

Applications of Graphene

Graphene has permeated numerous sectors like electronics, energy, and healthcare because of its impressive array of end uses.

IndustryRevenue CAGR of Graphene Across Industries, 2022-2027
Biomedical and Healthcare52%
Electronics and Telecommunications34%
Energy25%
Aerospace and Defense16%
Other End-User Industries17%

Graphene’s antibacterial properties make it highly suitable for medical instruments and implants. Furthermore, it has shown remarkable potential in helping treat diseases such as cancer.

Another one of the material’s applications is its ability to emit high-speed light pulses, or to combine graphene’s thinness and high-conductivity to create the tiniest possible light sources.

All in all, it’s difficult to sum up graphene’s properties and potential applications in one place. The supermaterial has been covered and cited in thousands of academic journals, and comes up with over 2 million search results on Google Scholar.

Graphene Commercialization

Graphene has evolved from a scientific breakthrough to a commercial reality in less than two decades, putting it firmly on the radar of many future-focused investors.

But despite the strides the industry is making, it is still in its infancy, and therefore challenges exist on the path to widespread adoption. Here are the top five commercialization obstacles perceived by industry players.

Obstacle% of survey respondents
Cost31%
Production Methods, Scaling, and Distribution21%
Material Quality/Consistency17%
Lack of Knowledge/Awareness15%
Dispersion/Handling14%

When transitioning cutting-edge materials from the laboratory to consumer products, challenges like these can be expected. But one company is tackling them head-on.

By producing 99.8% pure graphene, and ensuring batch-to-batch consistency, HydroGraph is helping meet the growing demand for graphene products across industries while addressing challenges like cost, scale, and quality.

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Interested in learning more? Explore investment opportunities with HydroGraph now.

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