All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization
In the current economic circumstances, there are some pretty large numbers being thrown around by both governments and the financial media.
The U.S. budget deficit this year, for example, is projected to hit $3.8 trillion, which would be more than double the previous record set during the financial crisis ($1.41 trillion in FY2009). Meanwhile, the Fed has announced “open-ended” asset-buying programs to support the economy, which will add even more to its current $7 trillion balance sheet.
Given the scale of these new numbers—how can we relate them back to the more conventional numbers and figures that we may be more familiar with?
Introducing the $100 Billion Square
In the above data visualization, we even the playing field by using a common denominator to put the world’s money and markets all on the same scale and canvas.
Each black square on the chart is worth $100 billion, and is not a number to be trifled with:
In fact, the entire annual GDP of Cuba could fit in one square ($97 billion), and the Greek economy would be roughly two squares ($203 billion).
Alternatively, if you’re contrasting this unit to numbers found within Corporate America, there are useful comparisons there as well. For example, the annual revenues of Wells Fargo ($103.9 billion) would just exceed one square, while Facebook’s would squeeze in with room to spare ($70.7 billion).
Billions, Trillions, or Quadrillions?
Here’s our full list, which sums up all of the world’s money and markets, from the smallest to the biggest, along with sources used:
|Category||Value ($ Billions, USD)||Source|
|Silver||$44||World Silver Survey 2019|
|Global Military Spending||$1,782||World Bank|
|U.S. Federal Deficit (FY 2020)||$3,800||U.S. CBO (Projected, as of April 2020)|
|Coins & Bank Notes||$6,662||BIS|
|Fed's Balance Sheet||$7,037||U.S. Federal Reserve|
|The World's Billionaires||$8,000||Forbes|
|Gold||$10,891||World Gold Council (2020)|
|The Fortune 500||$22,600||Fortune 500 (2019 list)|
|Stock Markets||$89,475||WFE (April 2020)|
|Narrow Money Supply||$35,183||CIA Factbook|
|Broad Money Supply||$95,698||CIA Factbook|
|Global Debt||$252,600||IIF Debt Monitor|
|Global Real Estate||$280,600||Savills Global Research (2018 est.)|
|Global Wealth||$360,603||Credit Suisse|
|Derivatives (Market Value)||$11,600||BIS (Dec 2019)|
|Derivatives (Notional Value)||$558,500||BIS (Dec 2019)|
|Derivatives (Notional Value - High end)||$1,000,000||Various sources (Unofficial)|
Derivatives top the list, estimated at $1 quadrillion or more in notional value according to a variety of unofficial sources.
However, it’s worth mentioning that because of their non-tangible nature, the value of financial derivatives are measured in two very different ways. Notional value represents the position or obligation of the contract (i.e. a call to buy 100 shares at the price of $50 per share), while gross market value measures the price of the derivative security itself (i.e. $1.00 per call option, multiplied by 100 shares).
It’s a subtle difference that manifests itself in a big way numerically.
Correction: Graphic updated to reflect the average value of an NBA team.
Recession Risk: Which Sectors are Least Vulnerable?
We show the sectors with the lowest exposure to recession risk—and the factors that drive their performance.
Recession Risk: Which Sectors are Least Vulnerable?
In the context of a potential recession, some sectors may be in better shape than others.
They share several fundamental qualities, including:
- Less cyclical exposure
- Lower rate sensitivity
- Higher cash levels
- Lower capital expenditures
With this in mind, the above chart looks at the sectors most resilient to recession risk and rising costs, using data from Allianz Trade.
Recession Risk, by Sector
As slower growth and rising rates put pressure on corporate margins and the cost of capital, we can see in the table below that this has impacted some sectors more than others in the last year:
|Sector||Margin (p.p. change)
|🏡 Household Equipment||-0.9|
|🚗 Automotive Manufacturers||-1.1|
|🏭 Machinery & Equipment||-1.1|
|🖥️ Computers & Telecom||-2.0|
*Percentage point changes 2021- 2022.
Generally speaking, the retail sector has been shielded from recession risk and higher prices. In 2023, accelerated consumer spending and a strong labor market has supported retail sales, which have trended higher since 2021. Consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
Sectors including chemicals and pharmaceuticals have traditionally been more resistant to market turbulence, but have fared worse than others more recently.
In theory, sectors including construction, metals, and automotives are often rate-sensitive and have high capital expenditures. Yet, what we have seen in the last year is that many of these sectors have been able to withstand margin pressures fairly well in spite of tightening credit conditions as seen in the table above.
What to Watch: Corporate Margins in Perspective
One salient feature of the current market environment is that corporate profit margins have approached historic highs.
As the above chart shows, after-tax profit margins for non-financial corporations hovered over 14% in 2022, the highest post-WWII. In fact, this trend has been increasing over the past two decades.
According to a recent paper, firms have used their market power to increase prices. As a result, this offset margin pressures, even as sales volume declined.
Overall, we can see that corporate profit margins are higher than pre-pandemic levels. Sectors focused on essential goods to the consumer were able to make price hikes as consumers purchased familiar brands and products.
Adding to stronger margins were demand shocks that stemmed from supply chain disruptions. The auto sector, for example, saw companies raise prices without the fear of diminishing market share. All of these factors have likely built up a buffer to help reduce future recession risk.
Sector Fundamentals Looking Ahead
How are corporate metrics looking in 2023?
In the first quarter of 2023, S&P 500 earnings fell almost 4%. It was the second consecutive quarter of declining earnings for the index. Despite slower growth, the S&P 500 is up roughly 15% from lows seen in October.
Yet according to an April survey from the Bank of America, global fund managers are overwhelmingly bearish, highlighting contradictions in the market.
For health care and utilities sectors, the vast majority of companies in the index are beating revenue estimates in 2023. Over the last 30 years, these defensive sectors have also tended to outperform other sectors during a downturn, along with consumer staples. Investors seek them out due to their strong balance sheets and profitability during market stress.
|S&P 500 Sector||Percent of Companies With Revenues Above Estimates (Q1 2023)|
|Real Estate ||81%|
Cyclical sectors, such as financials and industrials tend to perform worse. We can see this today with turmoil in the banking system, as bank stocks remain sensitive to interest rate hikes. Making matters worse, the spillover from rising rates may still take time to materialize.
Defensive sectors like health care, staples, and utilities could be less vulnerable to recession risk. Lower correlation to economic cycles, lower rate-sensitivity, higher cash buffers, and lower capital expenditures are all key factors that support their resilience.
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