Demographics

113 Million People Will Join the Global Middle Class in 2024

Published

2 months ago

October 19, 2023

Marcus Lu

Graphics/Design:

Bhabna Banerjee

113 Million People Will Join the Global Middle Class in 2024

Every year, over 100 million people enter the global middle class.

Defined by the World Data Lab as someone who spends at least $12 per day (measured in 2017 purchasing power parity), these individuals are typically rising up in developing regions like Asia and Africa.

In this graphic, we’ve created a treemap diagram that shows where the new entrants to this consumer class in 2024 will originate from.

Where are Millions of New Consumers Coming From?

World Data Lab expects 113 million people to join the global middle class in 2024, with the vast majority coming from Asia.

The following table includes the data we used to create this graphic, at a regional level (figures rounded).

Region	New Consumers (millions)
🌏 Asia	91
🌍 Africa	10
🌎 Latin America	6
🗺️ Rest of World	5

Based on these figures, we can conclude that Asia will contribute 81% of new consumers in 2024.

Highlights from Asia

The following table breaks down Asia’s 91 million new consumers for 2024, by country. Note that only countries which contribute at least 1 million consumers were broken out, with the rest grouped into “Other”.

Country	New Consumers (millions)
🇨🇳 China	31
🇮🇳 India	33
🇮🇩 Indonesia	5
🇧🇩 Bangladesh	5
🇻🇳 Vietnam	4
🇵🇰 Pakistan	3
🇵🇭 Philippines	2
🇹🇷 Türkiye	1
🇹🇭 Thailand	1
🗺️ Other	6

As expected, China and India are projected to be the two biggest sources of additions to the global middle class in 2024. Both countries have massive populations, rising income levels, and high rates of urbanization.

Further down the list we can see Indonesia and Bangladesh adding 5 million consumers each. Both of these countries have an expansive population pyramid, meaning they have a relatively young average age and growing labor forces.

It’s interesting to note that many of the countries listed above, including Vietnam, Philippines, and Thailand, also happen to be some of the fastest growing e-commerce markets in the world.

Highlights from Africa

Egypt and Nigeria are the only countries from the Africa region that will contribute more than 1 million consumers in 2024. Once again, both countries are characterized by their high growth potential and above-average birth rates.

In fact, by 2075, Goldman Sachs believes that Egypt and Nigeria could become the fifth and seventh largest economies in the world, surpassing traditional economic leaders like Japan, Germany, and the UK.

Related Topics:china africa india demographics income middle class economy asia economics consumer class global middle class

Up Next

Charted: Comparing the GDP of BRICS and the G7 Countries

Don't Miss

Mapped: The Largest Stock Exchanges in the World

Click for Comments

Healthcare

Charted: Average Years Left to Live by Age

Visualizing the number of years left to live for Americans at every age, reveals the broader trends in American life expectancy.

Published

1 week ago

November 29, 2023

Pallavi Rao

Chart showing the average years left to live at every age for men and women.

How Many Years Do You Have Left to Live?

At the start of the 19th century, when there fewer than 1 billion humans on the earth, global life expectancy at birth stood at roughly 29 years.

This is a startlingly low figure—because life expectancy is a statistical projection of how many more years a person can expect to live, based on the mortality rates at the time. And since the infant mortality rate in particular was so high, life expectancies accurately summarized the low likelihood of many babies living to adulthood.

However, since the 1920s, life expectancy across all ages has improved leaps and bounds, thanks to rapid advancements in nutrition, healthcare, and sanitation.

We visualized the current American life expectancy by age and gender, using data from the Office of Social Security, which bases their current projections on 2020 mortality rates.

American Life Expectancy at Every Age

A key takeaway with life expectancy is that it increases as one gets older. This is easily seen in the table below, which lists the remaining years left to live at a given age for an American male and the projected life expectancy.

Age	Years Remaining (Men)	Life Expectancy (Men)
0	74.12	74.12
1	73.55	74.55
2	72.58	74.58
3	71.60	74.60
4	70.62	74.62
5	69.63	74.63
6	68.64	74.64
7	67.65	74.65
8	66.65	74.65
9	65.66	74.66
10	64.67	74.67
11	63.68	74.68
12	62.69	74.69
13	61.70	74.70
14	60.71	74.71
15	59.73	74.73
16	58.76	74.76
17	57.79	74.79
18	56.84	74.84
19	55.90	74.90
20	54.97	74.97
21	54.04	75.04
22	53.12	75.12
23	52.21	75.21
24	51.30	75.30
25	50.39	75.39
26	49.48	75.48
27	48.57	75.57
28	47.66	75.66
29	46.76	75.76
30	45.86	75.86
31	44.97	75.97
32	44.07	76.07
33	43.18	76.18
34	42.29	76.29
35	41.39	76.39
36	40.50	76.50
37	39.62	76.62
38	38.73	76.73
39	37.85	76.85
40	36.97	76.97
41	36.09	77.09
42	35.21	77.21
43	34.34	77.34
44	33.46	77.46
45	32.59	77.59
46	31.73	77.73
47	30.87	77.87
48	30.01	78.01
49	29.17	78.17
50	28.33	78.33
51	27.50	78.50
52	26.67	78.67
53	25.86	78.86
54	25.06	79.06
55	24.27	79.27
56	23.48	79.48
57	22.71	79.71
58	21.95	79.95
59	21.21	80.21
60	20.47	80.47
61	19.74	80.74
62	19.03	81.03
63	18.32	81.32
64	17.63	81.63
65	16.94	81.94
66	16.26	82.26
67	15.58	82.58
68	14.91	82.91
69	14.24	83.24
70	13.59	83.59
71	12.94	83.94
72	12.30	84.30
73	11.67	84.67
74	11.05	85.05
75	10.46	85.46
76	9.88	85.88
77	9.32	86.32
78	8.77	86.77
79	8.25	87.25
80	7.74	87.74
81	7.25	88.25
82	6.77	88.77
83	6.31	89.31
84	5.88	89.88
85	5.47	90.47
86	5.07	91.07
87	4.70	91.70
88	4.35	92.35
89	4.02	93.02
90	3.72	93.72
91	3.44	94.44
92	3.18	95.18
93	2.96	95.96
94	2.75	96.75
95	2.57	97.57
96	2.42	98.42
97	2.28	99.28
98	2.15	100.15
99	2.04	101.04
100	1.93	101.93
101	1.83	102.83
102	1.73	103.73
103	1.63	104.63
104	1.54	105.54
105	1.45	106.45
106	1.36	107.36
107	1.27	108.27
108	1.18	109.18
109	1.10	110.10
110	1.02	111.02
111	0.95	111.95
112	0.88	112.88
113	0.82	113.82
114	0.76	114.76
115	0.70	115.70
116	0.65	116.65
117	0.60	117.60
118	0.56	118.56
119	0.52	119.52
120	0.48	120.48

At birth, an average American baby boy can expect to live till just past 74. But if the boy reaches adulthood, then at 21 he might live to a full year more, past 75. This trend persists even towards the end of life when the years we have left drop rapidly, influenced by the higher likelihood of death.

American women, on the other hand, have a higher life expectancy than men. At birth the gap is close to six years, narrowing steadily to around one year by 85.

Age	Years Remaining (Women)	Life Expectancy (Women)
0	79.78	79.78
1	79.17	80.17
2	78.19	80.19
3	77.21	80.21
4	76.22	80.22
5	75.23	80.23
6	74.24	80.24
7	73.25	80.25
8	72.25	80.25
9	71.26	80.26
10	70.27	80.27
11	69.27	80.27
12	68.28	80.28
13	67.29	80.29
14	66.30	80.30
15	65.31	80.31
16	64.32	80.32
17	63.34	80.34
18	62.36	80.36
19	61.38	80.38
20	60.41	80.41
21	59.44	80.44
22	58.47	80.47
23	57.50	80.50
24	56.54	80.54
25	55.58	80.58
26	54.61	80.61
27	53.66	80.66
28	52.70	80.70
29	51.74	80.74
30	50.79	80.79
31	49.84	80.84
32	48.89	80.89
33	47.94	80.94
34	47.00	81.00
35	46.06	81.06
36	45.12	81.12
37	44.18	81.18
38	43.24	81.24
39	42.31	81.31
40	41.38	81.38
41	40.45	81.45
42	39.52	81.52
43	38.60	81.60
44	37.68	81.68
45	36.76	81.76
46	35.85	81.85
47	34.94	81.94
48	34.04	82.04
49	33.14	82.14
50	32.24	82.24
51	31.35	82.35
52	30.47	82.47
53	29.59	82.59
54	28.72	82.72
55	27.86	82.86
56	27.01	83.01
57	26.16	83.16
58	25.32	83.32
59	24.49	83.49
60	23.67	83.67
61	22.85	83.85
62	22.04	84.04
63	21.24	84.24
64	20.45	84.45
65	19.66	84.66
66	18.88	84.88
67	18.10	85.10
68	17.34	85.34
69	16.58	85.58
70	15.82	85.82
71	15.08	86.08
72	14.36	86.36
73	13.64	86.64
74	12.94	86.94
75	12.26	87.26
76	11.60	87.60
77	10.95	87.95
78	10.31	88.31
79	9.70	88.70
80	9.10	89.10
81	8.53	89.53
82	7.98	89.98
83	7.44	90.44
84	6.93	90.93
85	6.44	91.44
86	5.99	91.99
87	5.55	92.55
88	5.15	93.15
89	4.76	93.76
90	4.41	94.41
91	4.08	95.08
92	3.78	95.78
93	3.51	96.51
94	3.27	97.27
95	3.05	98.05
96	2.85	98.85
97	2.68	99.68
98	2.52	100.52
99	2.37	101.37
100	2.23	102.23
101	2.09	103.09
102	1.96	103.96
103	1.84	104.84
104	1.72	105.72
105	1.61	106.61
106	1.51	107.51
107	1.41	108.41
108	1.32	109.32
109	1.24	110.24
110	1.16	111.16
111	1.09	112.09
112	1.02	113.02
113	0.96	113.96
114	0.90	114.90
115	0.85	115.85
116	0.80	116.80
117	0.75	117.75
118	0.70	118.70
119	0.66	119.66
120	0.62	120.62

Interestingly, women outlive men in nearly every country in the world, due to a mix of sociological, behavioral, and biological reasons.

COVID-19: Reversing A Decade of Increasing American Life Expectancy

While the current American life expectancy at birth seems reasonably high, it is nearly two years lower than the 2022 figure which used the 2019 mortality rate. It is also lower than the life expectancy at birth in 2009, which used 2005 mortality rate.

Year	Life Expectancy at Birth (Men)	Life Expectancy at Birth (Women)
2009	74.12	79.95
2014	76.10	80.94
2019	76.04	80.99
2023	74.12	79.78

American mortality rates went up 17% between 2019–2020, in part because of COVID-19, in turn affecting life expectancy. The U.S. also had a higher COVID-19 mortality rate compared to its peers two years after the pandemic first struck.

Thus, American life expectancy may not improve immediately to 2019 levels, which can affect insurance premiums, pension benefits, and plans.

Where Does This Data Come From?

Source: Office of Social Security, U.S. Government.

Note: The life expectancy at a given age is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for 2020 over the course of their remaining life.