Who are the Longest Serving Active CEOs in the S&P 500?
Have you ever wondered which chief executive officer has remained at their position the longest? As an investor, you might be interested to know that studies have linked CEO duration with superior stock returns.
One study in particular from the University of Sydney looked at some 19,000 CEOs across the NYSE and NASDAQ from 1992-2016 and concluded:
“A one year increase in CEO tenure, on average, increases future stock returns by 0.029 percentage points, and suggests that longer CEO tenure has robust positive predictive power on cross-sectional stock returns.”
The data in this piece highlights several of the most tenured CEOs in the S&P 500. Warren Buffett is the longest serving leader of the bunch, having maintained his position for over half a century.
|Warren Buffet||51 years (since1970)||Berkshire Hathaway|
|Alan B. Miller||42 years (since 1979)||Universal Health Services|
|Stephen Schwarzman||36 years (since 1985)||Blackstone Group|
|James Herbert||35 years (since 1986)||First Republic Bank|
|Richard Fain||32 years (since 1988)||Royal Caribbean Cruises|
|Leonard Schleifer||32 years (since 1988)||Regeneron|
|Jensen Huang||28 years (since 1993)||Nvidia|
|Richard Fairbank||27 years (since 1994)||Capital One|
|Jamie Dimon||16 years (since 2005)||JP Morgan|
Depending on your investment style, who the CEO is can be an important consideration. Fundamental-oriented investors frequently size up a management team as a key step in evaluating the future prospects of a company.
The Top CEOs
A few of the longest serving CEOs are some of the top rated in the world as well. This table below shows where Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon, and Jensen Huang appear and rank, in various business magazines and reports:
|CEO||Must Influential CEOs|
CEO World Magazine
|Top 100 CEOs|
|Top 50 CEOs
CEO Today Magazine
|Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan)||#6||N/A||#17|
|Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway)||#20||N/A||#10|
|Jensen Huang (Nvidia)||#60||#31||#19|
Jensen Huang, in particular, has gained a ton of popularity due to Nvidia’s impressive growth and performance. Their $816 billion market cap means Huang oversees the largest company of this group. In fact, a 23% further increase in their share price would launch Nvidia into the elite trillion dollar club, a fairly small gain when contrasted to their 1,250% share price increase during the last five years.
CEO Duration and Performance
The data on CEO performance is often contingent on how long they last in the role. An HBR report took a look at the performance of 747 S&P 500 CEOs and has some surprising insights. For example, the best performance period for CEOs tends to come in the 2nd decade in years 11-15, otherwise known as “The Golden Years” stage.
Unfortunately, a lot of CEOs don’t make it long enough to enjoy their golden years. PWC found that CEO turnover has become increasingly more rapid relative to the past. Consider that turnover among CEOs at the world’s 2,500 largest companies soared to a record high of 17.5% just a few years ago. Furthermore, median tenures for CEOs have steadily dipped from a 10-year average in 2000, to 8 years in 2016, and closer to 5 in more recent times.
If recent trends and patterns are any indication, long-term serving CEOs like those highlighted above will become even more rare.
How People Around the World Feel About Their Economic Prospects
In many of the world’s largest economies, including the U.S., Germany, and China, optimism around economic prospects sits at an all-time low.
How Countries Feel About Their Economic Prospects
Each year, the Edelman Trust Barometer report helps gauge the level of trust people place in various systems of power.
The report is also a useful tool to gauge the general mood in countries around the world—and when it comes to how people in developed economies feel about the near future, there’s a very clear answer: pessimistic. In fact, optimism about respondents’ economic prospects fell in the majority of countries surveyed.
Here’s a full look how many respondents in 28 countries feel they and their families will be doing better over the next five years. Or, put more simply, what percentage of people are optimistic about their economic circumstances?
|Country||% who are optimistic||All-time low?||Change from 2021 (p.p.)|
|🇰🇷 South Korea||39%||+6|
|🇿🇦 South Africa||66%||-2|
|🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||73%||0|
Interestingly, nine countries (those with checkmarks above) are polling at all-time lows for economic optimism in survey history.
Whose Glass is Half Empty?
Japanese respondents were the most pessimistic, with only 15% seeing positive economic prospects in the near term. Only 18% of French respondents were economically optimistic.
While most developed economies were slightly more optimistic than Japan and France, all are still well below the global average.
As tensions between China and the U.S. continue to heat up in 2022, there is one thing that can unite citizens in the two countries—a general feeling that economic prospects are souring. As the U.S. heads into midterm elections and China’s 20th National Party Congress takes place, leaders in both countries will surely have the economy on their minds.
Whose Glass is Half Full?
Of course, the mood isn’t all doom and gloom everywhere. The United Arab Emirates saw a 6 percentage point (p.p.) jump in their population’s economic prospects.
Indonesia saw an 11 p.p. increase, and in big developing economies like Brazil and India, the general level of optimism is still quite high.
In some ways, it’s no surprise that people in developing economies are more optimistic about their economic prospects. Living standards are generally rising in many of these countries, and more opportunities open up as the economy grows. Even in the most pessimistic African country surveyed, South Africa, the majority of people still see improving circumstances in their near future. In Kenya and Nigeria, an overwhelming majority are optimistic.
One major prediction that experts agreed on for the year ahead is that economic outcomes will begin to diverge between countries with differing levels of vaccine access.
While this doesn’t seem to have affected attitudes towards economic optimism yet, it remains to be seen how this will play out as the year progresses.
The Accelerating Frequency of Extreme Weather
Extreme weather events, like droughts and heatwaves, have become more common over the years. But things are expected to get worse.
The Accelerating Frequency of Extreme Weather
The world is already witnessing the effects of climate change.
A few months ago, the western U.S. experienced one of the worst droughts it’s seen in the last 20 years. At the same time, southern Europe roasted in an extreme heatwave, with temperatures reaching 45°C in some parts.
But things are only expected to get worse in the near future. Here’s a look at how much extreme climate events have changed over the last 200 years, and what’s to come if global temperatures keep rising.
A Century of Warming
The global surface temperature has increased by about 1°C since the 1850s. And according to the IPCC, this warming has been indisputably caused by human influence.
As the global temperatures have risen, the frequency of extreme weather events have increased along with it. Heatwaves, droughts and extreme rainstorms used to happen once in a decade on average, but now:
- Heatwaves are 2.8x more frequent
- Droughts are 1.7x more frequent
- Extreme rainstorms are 1.3x more frequent
By 2030, the global surface temperature is expected to rise 1.5°C above the Earth’s baseline temperature, which means that:
- Heatwaves would be 4.1x more frequent
- Droughts would be 2x more frequent
- Extreme rainstorms would be 1.5x more frequent
The Ripple Effects of Extreme Weather
Extreme weather events have far-reaching impacts on communities, especially when they cause critical system failures.
Mass infrastructure breakdowns during Hurricane Ida this year caused widespread power outages in the state of Louisiana that lasted for several days. In 2020, wildfires in Syria devastated hundreds of villages and injured dozens of civilians with skin burns and breathing complications.
As extreme weather events continue to increase in frequency, and communities become increasingly more at risk, sound infrastructure is becoming more important than ever.
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