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The Decline of Long-Term Investing

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Decline of Long-term Investing

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The Briefing

  • The average holding period of shares on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is now <1 year
  • Technological advancement is one of the biggest drivers of this change

The Decline of Long-Term Investing

“Our favorite holding period is forever.”

Those are words from famed investor Warren Buffett, an advocate of the buy and hold approach to investing. Buy and hold is a long-term strategy in which shares are gradually accumulated over time, regardless of short-term performance.

And while Buffett is undoubtedly a successful investor, data from the NYSE suggests that few are actually following his advice. As of June 2020, the average holding period of shares was just 5.5 months. That’s a massive decrease from the late 1950s peak of 8 years.

What’s Driving This Change?

The decline in holding periods appears to have been caused by a number of factors, with the most prominent one being technological advancement.

For example, in 1966, the NYSE switched to a fully automated trading system. This greatly increased the number of trades that could be processed each day and lowered the cost of transactions.

YearNYSE Average Daily Trading Volume* (number of shares)
18861M
1982100M
1987500M
20201,000M

*10 day moving average as of Dec. 15, 2020. Source: Nasdaq

Automated exchanges have led to the introduction of high-frequency trading (HFT), which uses computer algorithms to analyze markets and execute trades within seconds. HFT represents 50% of trading volume in U.S. equity markets, making it a significant contributor to the decline in holding periods.

Technology has enabled investors to become more active as well. Thanks to the internet and smartphones, new information is widely distributed and easy to access. With online trading platforms, investors also have the ability to act on this information immediately.

Social media is also playing a role. The recent r/wallstreetbets saga is an example of how the stock market can become sensational and fad-driven. After all, long-term investing has much less to offer in terms of excitement.

Corporate Longevity in Decline

Finally, companies themselves are also exhibiting shorter lifespans. This results in greater index turnover (companies being added or removed from stock indexes), and is likely a contributor to the decline in holding periods.

In 1970, companies that were included in the S&P 500 had an average tenure of 35 years. By 2018, average tenure was down to 20 years, and by 2030, it’s expected to fall below 15 years.

Altogether, these trends may be creating a greater incentive to pursue short-term results.

Where does this data come from?

Source: NYSE, Refinitiv (Accessed via Reuters)

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Datastream

How People Around the World Feel About Their Economic Prospects

In many of the world’s largest economies, including the U.S., Germany, and China, optimism around economic prospects sits at an all-time low.

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economic prospects of people around the world

The Briefing

  • Economic prospects are at an all-time low in nine countries, including the U.S., Canada, Germany, Japan, and China
  • China and the U.S. experienced the biggest year-over-year drops, at -8 p.p. and -6 p.p., respectively

How Countries Feel About Their Economic Prospects

Each year, the Edelman Trust Barometer report helps gauge the level of trust people place in various systems of power.

The report is also a useful tool to gauge the general mood in countries around the world—and when it comes to how people in developed economies feel about the near future, there’s a very clear answer: pessimistic. In fact, optimism about respondents’ economic prospects fell in the majority of countries surveyed.

Here’s a full look how many respondents in 28 countries feel they and their families will be doing better over the next five years. Or, put more simply, what percentage of people are optimistic about their economic circumstances?

Country% who are optimisticAll-time low?Change from 2021 (p.p.)
🇯🇵 Japan15%-1
🇫🇷 France18%-1
🇩🇪 Germany22%-2
🇮🇹 Italy27%0
🇳🇱 Netherlands29%-1
🇬🇧 UK30%+2
🇷🇺 Russia31%+1
🇨🇦 Canada34%-1
🇪🇸 Spain36%+1
🇰🇷 South Korea39%+6
🇺🇸 U.S.40%-6
🇦🇺 Australia41%-2
🇮🇪 Ireland42%-1
🇸🇬 Singapore43%-1
🌐 Global51%0
🇲🇾 Malaysia55%0
🇦🇷 Argentina60%-2
🇹🇭 Thailand60%-2
🇨🇳 China64%-8
🇿🇦 South Africa66%-2
🇲🇽 Mexico68%-1
🇧🇷 Brazil73%0
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia73%0
🇦🇪 UAE78%+6
🇮🇳 India80%0
🇮🇩 Indonesia81%+11
🇨🇴 Colombia83%-1
🇳🇬 Nigeria87%n/a
🇰🇪 Kenya91%-2

Interestingly, nine countries (those with checkmarks above) are polling at all-time lows for economic optimism in survey history.

Whose Glass is Half Empty?

Japanese respondents were the most pessimistic, with only 15% seeing positive economic prospects in the near term. Only 18% of French respondents were economically optimistic.

While most developed economies were slightly more optimistic than Japan and France, all are still well below the global average.

As tensions between China and the U.S. continue to heat up in 2022, there is one thing that can unite citizens in the two countries—a general feeling that economic prospects are souring. As the U.S. heads into midterm elections and China’s 20th National Party Congress takes place, leaders in both countries will surely have the economy on their minds.

Whose Glass is Half Full?

Of course, the mood isn’t all doom and gloom everywhere. The United Arab Emirates saw a 6 percentage point (p.p.) jump in their population’s economic prospects.

Indonesia saw an 11 p.p. increase, and in big developing economies like Brazil and India, the general level of optimism is still quite high.

In some ways, it’s no surprise that people in developing economies are more optimistic about their economic prospects. Living standards are generally rising in many of these countries, and more opportunities open up as the economy grows. Even in the most pessimistic African country surveyed, South Africa, the majority of people still see improving circumstances in their near future. In Kenya and Nigeria, an overwhelming majority are optimistic.

Diverging Outcomes

One major prediction that experts agreed on for the year ahead is that economic outcomes will begin to diverge between countries with differing levels of vaccine access.

While this doesn’t seem to have affected attitudes towards economic optimism yet, it remains to be seen how this will play out as the year progresses.

Where does this data come from?

Source: 2022 Edelman Trust Barometer

Data notes: This data is derived from Edelman’s annual Trust Barometer survey, which includes 30,000+ respondents in countries around the world.

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Datastream

The Accelerating Frequency of Extreme Weather

Extreme weather events, like droughts and heatwaves, have become more common over the years. But things are expected to get worse.

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Extreme Weather Events

The Briefing

  • We’re already seeing the impact of climate change—today, droughts, heatwaves, and extreme rainstorms are 2x more frequent than they were a century ago
  • In less than a decade, Earth’s climate is expected to warm another 0.5°C
  • If this happens, heatwaves will be 4.1x more frequent than they were in the 1850-1900s

The Accelerating Frequency of Extreme Weather

The world is already witnessing the effects of climate change.

A few months ago, the western U.S. experienced one of the worst droughts it’s seen in the last 20 years. At the same time, southern Europe roasted in an extreme heatwave, with temperatures reaching 45°C in some parts.

But things are only expected to get worse in the near future. Here’s a look at how much extreme climate events have changed over the last 200 years, and what’s to come if global temperatures keep rising.

A Century of Warming

The global surface temperature has increased by about 1°C since the 1850s. And according to the IPCC, this warming has been indisputably caused by human influence.

As the global temperatures have risen, the frequency of extreme weather events have increased along with it. Heatwaves, droughts and extreme rainstorms used to happen once in a decade on average, but now:

  • Heatwaves are 2.8x more frequent
  • Droughts are 1.7x more frequent
  • Extreme rainstorms are 1.3x more frequent

By 2030, the global surface temperature is expected to rise 1.5°C above the Earth’s baseline temperature, which means that:

  • Heatwaves would be 4.1x more frequent
  • Droughts would be 2x more frequent
  • Extreme rainstorms would be 1.5x more frequent

The Ripple Effects of Extreme Weather

Extreme weather events have far-reaching impacts on communities, especially when they cause critical system failures.

Mass infrastructure breakdowns during Hurricane Ida this year caused widespread power outages in the state of Louisiana that lasted for several days. In 2020, wildfires in Syria devastated hundreds of villages and injured dozens of civilians with skin burns and breathing complications.

As extreme weather events continue to increase in frequency, and communities become increasingly more at risk, sound infrastructure is becoming more important than ever.

Where does this data come from?

Source: IPCC
Details: The data used in this graphic is from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, which provides a high-level summary of the state of the climate, how it’s changing, and the role of human influence.

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