The Crazy World of Stonks Explained
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You may have seen diamond hands, rockets, and r/wallstreetbets rallying cries in the past few weeks—but what does it all mean? In this graphic we explain the events that led to an explosive rise in GameStop’s share price, along with the Reddit revolution fueling it.
Gamestop’s stock has been on a wild roller coaster ride, rising by roughly 640% from the start of last week to its peak. After Robinhood and other brokers initializing trading restrictions due to the heightened market activity, the stock has since fallen more than 80% to $90 per share.
But the stock’s volatile price action doesn’t come close to telling the story of how this market frenzy began on the Reddit community r/wallstreetbets, the hedge funds that suffered when GameStop share price rose dramatically, and why Robinhood halted trading last week.
The Beginning of the GameStop Saga
While GameStop’s share price went higher than anyone expected this past week, the initial idea behind this rally was shared back in September 2019 by u/DeepFuckingValue, a frequent user in the r/wallstreetbets subreddit, a community where trade and investment ideas are shared.
The premise of his trade idea was simple: he saw unrecognized value and much more upside potential compared to the downside risk in GameStop.
While people were eager to proclaim the death of physical game sales, u/DeepFuckingValue noted the new generation of consoles on the horizon would bring gamers back to GameStop. Along with the company’s new board of directors and solid balance sheet, GameStop wasn’t as poorly positioned as many thought.
Among those betting against the company were a variety of hedge funds and other players who had an outstanding short interest against the stock. Just like the legendary investor Michael Burry proposed after him, u/DeepFuckingValue noted the possibility of a short squeeze if GameStop’s share price moved higher.
GameStop Rockets to the Moon
A collection of shorts had amassed on the game retailer’s stock, with hedge funds like Melvin Capital Management holding onto shorts for multiple years despite GME being at all-time lows. The r/wallstreetbets community caught onto this high short interest and wanted to “squeeze” them out of their positions.
In August and September of 2020, GameStop broke up from its lows around $4 a share, and returned 66% and 53% respectively, reaching new highs of $11 a share. Hedge funds piled in further as short interest on publicly traded shares reached 120%, yet GameStop’s uptrend continued, reaching more than $20 a share by the end of December.
Here’s what’s happened since:
|Date||GameStop (GME) Share Price||DeepFuckingValue's Unrealized Profits|
Sources: TradingView, /u/DeepFuckingValue’s Reddit posts
As GameStop’s price ran into the triple digits by the end of January, Melvin Capital was forced to close their short position despite a $2.75B investment from Citadel and Point72. At the same time, in just a few weeks, the number of r/wallstreetbets subscribers shot up from 1.8M to 8.3M.
Robinhood Halts Trading and Institutes Position Limits
On January 28th, when GameStop shares reached highs above $460, Robinhood and other brokers halted purchases of GameStop shares and options along with the ability to purchase fractional shares of securities. The broker had received a bill from the NSCC (National Securities Clearing Corporation) of $3B, reflective of the high volatility and value at risk on the platform.
In an informal interview with Elon Musk on Clubhouse, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said that halting purchases and instituting position limits allowed the bill’s cost to ultimately drop to $700M. Before this interview, the company published a blog post of what happened on their end, along with an explainer of how trades are settled with clearinghouses.
While position limits which limited the amount of shares and options users could buy had originally been placed on 51 different securities, today only five have position limits. These include r/wallstreetbets favorites like GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC), and Nokia (NOK).
Robinhood’s New Position Limits
You can see the latest position limits on Robinhood’s platform here.
Along with these position limits, Robinhood has instated further limitations related to pattern day traders. This limits users with less than $25,000 in their account to fewer than four trades over five business days.
r/wallstreetbets Discovers Dogecoin and Eyes Silver Shorts
As buying was halted for many of the preferred r/wallstreetbets stocks, the community shifted its attention to the cryptocurrency Dogecoin. Prior to the 28th, Dogecoin had been trading for $0.007 a coin, but in less than 24 hours the coin rose 1,000% to a high of $0.086.
Following this, the meme-based cryptocurrency has since levelled off around $0.033, which is still nearly a 350% return for anyone who had bought before the 28th.
Since their foray into cryptocurrency, some r/wallstreetbets users have now identified silver as a new opportunity with short squeeze potential. Since the 28th, silver has risen about 5%. Increased volumes for various silver brokers caused delays or resulted in the suspension of silver purchases over the weekend.
Despite the rally and growing excitement around the precious metal, there are those in the r/wallstreetbets community who consider this a distraction. Malicious players with a short interest in GameStop may be trying to draw attention away from the GameStop short squeeze.
What’s Next for Robinhood and r/wallstreetbets?
Since these unprecedented market events, Robinhood raised $3.4B in an investment round to further support their goal of “expanding everyday investors’ ability to invest”. Yet the company faces dozens of lawsuits for their halting of share purchases on the 28th of January, and will likely have to put its IPO on the backburner.
Their decision to halt purchases ultimately removed large amounts of buy pressure from GameStop and other securities, and its newly instated position limits and pattern day trader rule have driven many users away from the platform.
With their actions, Robinhood unwittingly spurred a deep divide between Main Street and Wall Street. Many r/wallstreetbets members now feel their trades and investments carry an idealistic importance worth more than potential profits or losses.
While there is still plenty of this story left to play out, last week saw an irreversible change in how many individual investors perceive the market, its participants, and its rules. While new rules and regulations will change shape going forward, one thing is clear: the rise of information sharing has changed how financial markets will be traded forever.
The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2012-2021)
Energy fuels led the way as commodity prices surged in 2021, with only precious metals providing negative returns.
The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2022 Edition)
For investors, 2021 was a year in which nearly every asset class finished in the green, with commodities providing some of the best returns.
The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) was the third best-performing asset class in 2021, returning 37.1% and beating out real estate and all major equity indices.
This graphic from U.S. Global Investors tracks individual commodity returns over the past decade, ranking them based on their individual performance each year.
Commodity Prices Surge in 2021
After a strong performance from commodities (metals especially) in the year prior, 2021 was all about energy commodities.
The top three performers for 2021 were energy fuels, with coal providing the single best annual return of any commodity over the past 10 years at 160.6%. According to U.S. Global Investors, coal was also the least volatile commodity of 2021, meaning investors had a smooth ride as the fossil fuel surged in price.
Source: U.S. Global Investors
The only commodities in the red this year were precious metals, which failed to stay positive despite rising inflation across goods and asset prices. Gold and silver had returns of -3.6% and -11.7% respectively, with platinum returning -9.6% and palladium, the worst performing commodity of 2021, at -22.2%.
Aside from the precious metals, every other commodity managed double-digit positive returns, with four commodities (crude oil, coal, aluminum, and wheat) having their best single-year performances of the past decade.
Energy Commodities Outperform as the World Reopens
The partial resumption of travel and the reopening of businesses in 2021 were both powerful catalysts that fueled the price rise of energy commodities.
After crude oil’s dip into negative prices in April 2020, black gold had a strong comeback in 2021 as it returned 55.01% while being the most volatile commodity of the year.
Natural gas prices also rose significantly (46.91%), with the UK and Europe’s natural gas prices rising even more as supply constraints came up against the winter demand surge.
Despite being the second worst performer of 2020 with the clean energy transition on the horizon, coal was 2021’s best commodity.
High electricity demand saw coal return in style, especially in China which accounts for one-third of global coal consumption.
Base Metals Beat out Precious Metals
2021 was a tale of two metals, as precious metals and base metals had opposing returns.
Copper, nickel, zinc, aluminum, and lead, all essential for the clean energy transition, kept up last year’s positive returns as the EV batteries and renewable energy technologies caught investors’ attention.
Demand for these energy metals looks set to continue in 2022, with Tesla having already signed a $1.5 billion deal for 75,000 tonnes of nickel with Talon Metals.
On the other end of the spectrum, precious metals simply sunk like a rock last year.
Investors turned to equities, real estate, and even cryptocurrencies to preserve and grow their investments, rather than the traditionally favorable gold (-3.64%) and silver (-11.72%). Platinum and palladium also lagged behind other commodities, only returning -9.64% and -22.21% respectively.
Grains Bring Steady Gains
In a year of over and underperformers, grains kept up their steady track record and notched their fifth year in a row of positive returns.
Both corn and wheat provided double-digit returns, with corn reaching eight-year highs and wheat reaching prices not seen in over nine years. Overall, these two grains followed 2021’s trend of increasing food prices, as the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index reached a 10-year high, rising by 17.8% over the course of the year.
As inflation across commodities, assets, and consumer goods surged in 2021, investors will now be keeping a sharp eye for a pullback in 2022. We’ll have to wait and see whether or not the Fed’s plans to increase rates and taper asset purchases will manage to provide price stability in commodities.
Apple’s Colossal Market Cap as it Hits $3 Trillion
Apple’s market cap recently hit $3 trillion. To put that scale into context, this visualization compares Apple to European indexes.
Apple’s Colossal Market Cap in Context
In January of 2019, Apple’s market capitalization stood at $700 billion.
While this was perceived as a colossal figure at the time, when we fast forward to today, that valuation seems a lot more modest. Since then, Apple has surged to touch a $3 trillion valuation on January 3rd, 2022.
To gauge just how monstrous of a figure this is, consider that Apple is no longer comparable to just companies, but to countries and even entire stock indexes. This animation from James Eagle ranks the growth in Apple’s market cap alongside top indexes from the UK, France, and Germany.
Let’s take a closer look.
Apple Takes On Europe
The three indexes Apple is compared to are heavyweights in their own right.
The FTSE 100 consists of giants like HSBC and vaccine producer AstraZeneca, while the CAC 40 Index is home to LVMH, which made Bernard Arnault the richest man in the world for a period of time last year.
Nonetheless, Apple’s market cap exceeds that of the 100 companies in the FTSE, as well as the 40 in each of the CAC and DAX indexes.
|Stock/Index||Market Cap ($T)||Country of Origin|
|CAC 40 Index||$2.76T||🇫🇷|
|DAX 40 (Dax 30) Index*||$2.50T||🇩🇪|
*Germany’s flagship DAX Index expanded from 30 to 40 constituents in September 2021.
It’s important to note, that while Apple’s growth is stellar, European companies have simultaneously seen a decline in their share of the overall global stock market, which helps make these comparisons even more eye-catching.
For example, before 2005, publicly-traded European companies represented almost 30% of global stock market capitalization, but those figures have been cut in half to just 15% today.
Here are some other approaches to measure Apple’s dominance.
Apple’s Revenue Per Minute vs Other Tech Giants
Stepping away from market capitalization, another unique way to measure Apple’s success is in how much sales they generate on a per minute basis. In doing so, we see that they generate a massive $848,090 per minute.
Here’s how Apple revenue per minute compares to other Big Tech giants:
|Company||Revenue Per Minute|
Furthermore, Apple’s profits aren’t too shabby either: their $20.5 billion in net income last quarter equates to $156,000 in profits per minute.
How Apple Compares To Countries
Lastly, we can compare Apple’s market cap to the GDP of countries.
|Country (excluding Apple)||Total Value ($T)|
What might be most impressive here is that Apple’s market cap eclipses the GDP of major developed economies, such as Canada and Australia. That means the company is more valuable than the entire economic production of these countries in a calendar year.
That’s some serious scale.
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