Markets

Visualizing the Snowball of Government Debt

Published

5 years ago

January 7, 2019

Jeff Desjardins

Visualizing the Snowball of Government Debt

Over the last five years, markets have pushed concerns about debt under the rug.

While economic growth and record-low interest rates have made it easy to service existing government debt, it’s also created a situation where government debt has grown in to over $63 trillion in absolute terms.

The global economic tide can change fast, and in the event of a recession or rapidly rising interest rates, debt levels could come back into the spotlight very quickly.

The Debt Snowball

Today’s visualization comes to us from HowMuch.net and it rolls the world’s countries into a “snowball” of government debt, colored and arranged by debt-to-GDP ratios. The data itself comes from the IMF’s most recent October 2018 update.

The structure of the visualization is apt, because debt can accumulate in an unsustainable way if governments are not proactive. This situation can create a vicious cycle, where mounting debt can start hampering growth, making the debt ultimately harder to pay off.

Here are the countries with the most debt on the books:

Rank	Country	Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2017)
#1	Japan	237.6%
#2	Greece	181.8%
#3	Lebanon	146.8%
#4	Italy	131.8%
#5	Portugal	125.7%
#6	Sudan	121.6%
#7	Singapore	111.1%
#8	United States	105.2%
#9	Belgium	103.4%
#10	Egypt	103.0%

Note: Small economies (GDP under $10 billion) are excluded in this table, such as Cabo Verde and Barbados

Japan and Greece are the most indebted countries in the world, with debt-to-GDP ratios of 237.6% and 181.8% respectively. Meanwhile, the United States sits in the #8 spot with a 105.2% ratio, and recent Treasury estimates putting the national debt at $22 trillion.

Light Snow

On the opposite spectrum, here are the 10 jurisdictions that have incurred less debt relative to the size of their economies:

Rank	Country	Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2017)
#1	Macao (SAR)	0.0%
#2	Hong Kong (SAR)	0.1%
#3	Brunei	2.8%
#4	Afghanistan	7.0%
#5	Estonia	9.0%
#6	Botswana	14.0%
#7	Russia	15.5%
#8	Saudi Arabia	17.2%
#9	DRC	18.1%
#10	Paraguay	19.5%

Note: Small economies (GDP under $10 billion) are excluded in this table, such as Timor-Leste and Solomon Islands

Macao and Hong Kong – both special administrative regions (SARs) in China – have virtually zero debt on the books, while the official country with the lowest debt is Brunei (2.8%).

Related Topics:GDP debt countries government debt

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Markets

The European Stock Market: Attractive Valuations Offer Opportunities

On average, the European stock market has valuations that are nearly 50% lower than U.S. valuations. But how can you access the market?

Graphics & Design

Alejandra Dander

An infographic showing that compared to North American and Asian stocks, the European stock market has lower or comparable valuations and low-to-moderate correlation.

European Stock Market: Attractive Valuations Offer Opportunities

Europe is known for some established brands, from L’Oréal to Louis Vuitton. However, the European stock market offers additional opportunities that may be lesser known.

The above infographic, sponsored by STOXX, outlines why investors may want to consider European stocks.

Attractive Valuations

Compared to most North American and Asian markets, European stocks offer lower or comparable valuations.

Index	Price-to-Earnings Ratio	Price-to-Book Ratio
EURO STOXX 50	14.9	2.2
STOXX Europe 600	14.4	2
U.S.	25.9	4.7
Canada	16.1	1.8
Japan	15.4	1.6
Asia Pacific ex. China	17.1	1.8

Data as of February 29, 2024. See graphic for full index names. Ratios based on trailing 12 month financials. The price to earnings ratio excludes companies with negative earnings.

On average, European valuations are nearly 50% lower than U.S. valuations, potentially offering an affordable entry point for investors.

Research also shows that lower price ratios have historically led to higher long-term returns.

Market Movements Not Closely Connected

Over the last decade, the European stock market had low-to-moderate correlation with North American and Asian equities.

The below chart shows correlations from February 2014 to February 2024. A value closer to zero indicates low correlation, while a value of one would indicate that two regions are moving in perfect unison.

	EURO STOXX 50	STOXX EUROPE 600	U.S.	Canada	Japan	Asia Pacific ex. China
EURO STOXX 50	1.00	0.97	0.55	0.67	0.24	0.43
STOXX EUROPE 600		1.00	0.56	0.71	0.28	0.48
U.S.			1.00	0.73	0.12	0.25
Canada				1.00	0.22	0.40
Japan					1.00	0.88
Asia Pacific ex. China						1.00

Data is based on daily USD returns.

European equities had relatively independent market movements from North American and Asian markets. One contributing factor could be the differing sector weights in each market. For instance, technology makes up a quarter of the U.S. market, but health care and industrials dominate the broader European market.

Ultimately, European equities can enhance portfolio diversification and have the potential to mitigate risk for investors.

Tracking the Market

For investors interested in European equities, STOXX offers a variety of flagship indices:

Index	Description	Market Cap
STOXX Europe 600	Pan-regional, broad market	€10.5T
STOXX Developed Europe	Pan-regional, broad-market	€9.9T
STOXX Europe 600 ESG-X	Pan-regional, broad market, sustainability focus	€9.7T
STOXX Europe 50	Pan-regional, blue-chip	€5.1T
EURO STOXX 50	Eurozone, blue-chip	€3.5T

Data is as of February 29, 2024. Market cap is free float, which represents the shares that are readily available for public trading on stock exchanges.

The EURO STOXX 50 tracks the Eurozone’s biggest and most traded companies. It also underlies one of the world’s largest ranges of ETFs and mutual funds. As of November 2023, there were €27.3 billion in ETFs and €23.5B in mutual fund assets under management tracking the index.

“For the past 25 years, the EURO STOXX 50 has served as an accurate, reliable and tradable representation of the Eurozone equity market.”
— Axel Lomholt, General Manager at STOXX

Partnering with STOXX to Track the European Stock Market

Are you interested in European equities? STOXX can be a valuable partner:

Comprehensive, liquid and investable ecosystem
European heritage, global reach
Highly sophisticated customization capabilities
Open architecture approach to using data
Close partnerships with clients
Part of ISS STOXX and Deutsche Börse Group

With a full suite of indices, STOXX can help you benchmark against the European stock market.

Learn how STOXX’s European indices offer liquid and effective market access.

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