The World’s Projected Energy Mix, from 2018-2040
Since 1977, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has put together the World Energy Outlook, a highly anticipated annual report that looks towards the future of energy production and consumption on a global basis.
In the latest edition, the report dives into two very different policy scenarios that help illustrate the choices and consequences we have ahead of us.
In this post, we’ll look at each policy scenario and then dive into the associated numbers for each, showing how they affect the projected global energy mix from 2018 to 2040.
The Policy Scenarios
The IEA bases its projections based on two policy scenarios:
- The Stated Policies Scenario
This scenario is intended to reflect the impact of existing public policy frameworks, including announced policy intentions.
- The Sustainable Development Scenario
This scenario outlines a major transformation of the global energy system, aligned with achieving the energy-related components of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as reducing carbon emissions.
Neither scenario is technically a forecast; the IEA sees both scenarios as being possible.
However, this data can still provide a useful starting point for decision makers and investors looking to read the tea leaves. Will countries stick to their guns on their current plans, or will those plans be scrapped in the name of bolder, sustainable initiatives?
Scenario 1: Stated Policies
Today’s chart shows data corresponding to this policies scenario, as adjusted by CAPP.
See the energy use data below, shown in terms of Millions of Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe):
|2018||2030||2040||Est. % of mix (2040)|
Note: Data is based on CAPP conversion estimates, and is rounded to nearest 50 Mtoe.
In the Stated Policies Scenario, oil will be the largest energy source in 2040, making up about 28% of the global energy mix — and natural gas will be right behind it, for 25% of supply.
Coal consumption, which is decreasing in Western markets, will stay consistent with 2018 levels thanks to growing demand in Asia.
Meanwhile, renewable energy (excl. hydro) will see an impressive renaissance, with this category (which includes wind, solar, geothermal, etc.) increasing its portion in the mix by over 300% over 22 years.
Scenario 2: Sustainable Development
The IEA’s Sustainable Development scenario is very different from the status quo, as shown here:
The contrast between the energy needed in the Stated Policies (STEPS) and Sustainable Development (SDS) projections is stark, going from a 2,500 Mtoe increase to a 800 Mtoe decrease in total consumption, driven by residential and transportation sectors.
Under this scenario, renewable energy use for electricity consumption (incl. hydro) would need to increase by 8,000 TWh more, with ultimately more than half of it in Asia.
|Renewable Energy (Electricity Generation)||2018||2040||% Increase|
|Stated Policies||6,800 TWh||18,049 TWh||165%|
|Sustainable Development||6,800 TWh||26,065 TWh||283%|
Under this transformational and ambitious scenario, fossil fuel use would plummet. Coal consumption would drop by roughly 60%, oil consumption by 30%, and the role of natural gas in the energy mix would remain stagnant.
Two Scenarios, One Path
Both scenarios are a possibility, but in reality we will likely find ourselves somewhere in between the two extremes.
This makes these two baselines a helpful place to start for both investors and decision makers. Depending on how you think governments, corporations, and organizations will act, you can then adjust the projections accordingly.
Tesla is Now the World’s Most Valuable Automaker
Thanks to a surging stock price, Tesla is now the world’s most valuable automaker – surpassing industry giants Toyota and Volkswagen.
Tesla is Now the World’s Most Valuable Automaker
Even in the midst of a pandemic, Tesla continues to reach new heights.
The company, which began as a problem-plagued upstart a little over 15 years ago, has now become the world’s most valuable automaker – surpassing industry giants such as Toyota and Volkswagen.
This milestone comes after a year of steady growth, which only hit a speed bump earlier this year due to COVID-19’s negative impact on new car sales. Despite these headwinds, Tesla’s valuation has jumped by an impressive 375% since this time last year.
How does Tesla’s value continue to balloon, despite repeated cries that the company is overvalued? Will shortsellers declare a long-awaited victory, or is there still open road ahead?
Tesla’s Race to the Top
Earlier this year, Tesla hit an impressive milestone, surpassing the value of GM and Ford combined. Since then, the automaker’s stock has continued it’s upward trajectory.
Thanks to the popularity of the Model 3, Tesla sold more cars in 2019 than it did in the previous two years combined:
As well, the company is taking big steps to up its production capacity.
Austin, Texas and Tulsa, Oklahoma are currently rolling out the incentives to attract Tesla’s new U.S.-based factory. The company is also increasing its global presence with the construction of Giga Berlin, it’s first European production facility, as well as completing the ongoing expansion of its Giga Shanghai facility in China.
Battle of the Namesakes
Tesla’s most recent price bump was fueled in part by a leaked internal memo from Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, urging the company’s staff to go “all out” on bringing electric semi trucks to the global market at scale.
It’s time to go all out and bring the Tesla Semi to volume production.
– Elon Musk
Of course, Musk’s enthusiasm for semi trucks isn’t coming from nowhere. Another company, Nikola (also named after famed inventor Nikola Tesla), is focused on electrifying the two million or so semi trucks in operation in the U.S. market.
Although Nikola has yet to produce a vehicle, its market cap has surged to $24 billion – which puts its valuation nearly on par with Ford. Much like Tesla, the company already has preorders from major companies looking to add electric-powered trucks to their delivery fleets.
For major brands looking to hit ESG targets, zero-emission heavy-duty trucks is an easy solution, particularly if the vehicles also live up to claims of being cheaper over the vehicle’s lifecycle. The big question is which automaker will capitalize on this mega market first?
6 Ways Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Can Help Transition to Clean Energy
Here are six reasons why hydrogen and fuel cells can be a fit for helping with the transition to a lower-emission energy mix.
While fossil fuels offer an easily transportable, affordable, and energy-dense fuel for everyday use, the burning of this fuel creates pollutants, which can concentrate in city centers degrading the quality of air and life for residents.
The world is looking for alternative ways to ensure the mobility of people and goods with different power sources, and electric vehicles have high potential to fill this need.
But did you know that not all electric vehicles produce their electricity in the same way?
Hydrogen: An Alternative Vision for the EV
The world obsesses over battery technology and manufacturers such as Tesla, but there is an alternative fuel that powers rocket ships and is road-ready. Hydrogen is set to become an important fuel in the clean energy mix of the future.
Today’s infographic comes from the Canadian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association (CHFCA) and it outlines the case for hydrogen.
Hydrogen Supply and Demand
Some scientists have made the argument that it was not hydrogen that caused the infamous Hindenburg to burst into flames. Instead, the powdered aluminum coating of the zeppelin, which provided its silver look, was the culprit. Essentially, the chemical compound coating the dirigibles was a crude form of rocket fuel.
Industry and business have safely used, stored, and transported hydrogen for 50 years, while hydrogen-powered electric vehicles have a proven safety record with over 10 million miles of operation. In fact, hydrogen has several properties that make it safer than fossil fuels:
- 14 times lighter than air and disperses quickly
- Flames have low radiant heat
- Less combustible
Since hydrogen is the most abundant chemical element in the universe, it can be produced almost anywhere with a variety of methods, including from fuels such as natural gas, oil, or coal, and through electrolysis. Fossil fuels can be treated with extreme temperatures to break their hydrocarbon bonds, releasing hydrogen as a byproduct. The latter method uses electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen.
Both methods produce hydrogen for storage, and later consumption in an electric fuel cell.
Fuel Cell or Battery?
Battery and hydrogen-powered vehicles have the same goal: to reduce the environmental impact from oil consumption. There are two ways to measure the environmental impact of vehicles, from “Well to Wheels” and from “Cradle to Grave”.
Well to wheels refers to the total emissions from the production of fuel to its use in everyday life. Meanwhile, cradle to grave includes the vehicle’s production, operation, and eventual destruction.
According to one study, both of these measurements show that hydrogen-powered fuel cells significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. For every kilometer a hydrogen-powered vehicle drives it produces only 2.7 grams per kilometer (g/km) of carbon dioxide while a battery electric vehicle produces 20 g/km.
During everyday use, both options offer zero emissions, high efficiency, an electric drive, and low noise, but hydrogen offers weight-saving advantages that battery-powered vehicles do not.
In one comparison, Toyota’s Mirai had a maximum driving range of 312 miles, 41% further than Tesla’s Model 3 220-mile range. The Mirai can refuel in minutes, while the Model 3 has to recharge in 8.5 hours for only a 45% charge at a specially configured quick charge station not widely available.
However, the world still lacks the significant infrastructure to make this hydrogen-fueled future possible.
Large scale production delivers economic amounts of hydrogen. In order to achieve this scale, an extensive infrastructure of pipelines and fueling stations are required. However to build this, the world needs global coordination and action.
Countries around the world are laying the foundations for a hydrogen future. In 2017, CEOs from around the word formed the Hydrogen Council with the mission to accelerate the investment in hydrogen.
Globally, countries have announced plans to build 2,800 hydrogen refueling stations by 2025. German pipeline operators presented a plan to create a 1,200-kilometer grid by 2030 to transport hydrogen across the country, which would be the world’s largest in planning.
Fuel cell technology is road-ready with hydrogen infrastructure rapidly catching up. Hydrogen can deliver the power for a new clear energy era.
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