Technology

The Supercomputer In Your Pocket

Published

8 years ago

August 19, 2015

Jeff Desjardins

The Supercomputer in Your Pocket

We have mentioned here many times that the exponential rise in technology creates unprecedented opportunities for investors. Smaller and faster computers have led to emerging fields such as big data, the internet of things, cybersecurity, and the mobile payments revolution.

It all stems from Moore’s Law, which is based on observations made as early as 1965 by Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder of Intel. Moore suggested that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit would double approximately every two years, creating an exponential rise in computing potential.

However, for many this whole “exponential” thing is hard to wrap our heads around. Most of our daily observations are on a linear level, meaning that relationships hold true at a fixed rate. For example, if one wishes to bake a chocolate cake that is twice the size as a given recipe, the ingredients are to be doubled. If one is buying three cartons of milk from the grocery store, the cost will be three times higher.

Exponential Growth

Here’s an example of an exponential situation that just doesn’t feel intuitive. For the full version, which is worth reading, go to Peak Prosperity as they explain the compounding problem. Otherwise I will paraphrase:

Imagine that you are in Fenway Park, that the stadium is watertight, and you are handcuffed to the very highest bleacher seats. Meanwhile a drop of water is dropped on the pitcher’s mound, and the amount of water dropping will double every minute. How long do you have to escape from the handcuffs before drowning? Minutes, hours, days, years?

The answer turns out to be 49 minutes. Even more interesting is that most people wouldn’t be aware of how dire the situation until about 45 minutes, when the stadium is about 7% full of water and about to double yet again.

This example illustrates exponential growth. Applied to technology, it means that even though we have seen big advances over the last few decades with the emergence of personal computers, smartphones, and even smaller connected devices, the best is still yet to come.

Quantum computing and general artificial intelligence are approaching us faster than we may know.

Original graphic by: Fonebank

Related Topics:exponential smartphone iPhone technology Growth supercomputer

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Technology

Nvidia Joins the Trillion Dollar Club

America’s biggest chipmaker Nvidia has joined the trillion dollar club as advancements in AI move at lightning speed.

Published

1 day ago

May 30, 2023

Dorothy Neufeld

Nvidia Joins the Trillion Dollar Club

Chipmaker Nvidia is now worth nearly as much as Amazon.

America’s largest semiconductor company has vaulted past the $1 trillion market capitalization mark, a milestone reached by just a handful of companies including Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. While many of these are household names, Nvidia has only recently gained widespread attention amid the AI boom.

The above graphic compares Nvidia to the seven companies that have reached the trillion dollar club.

Riding the AI Wave

Nvidia’s market cap has more than doubled in 2023 to over $1 trillion.

The company designs semiconductor chips that are made of silicon slices that contain specific patterns. Just like you flip an electrical switch by turning on a light at home, these chips have billions of switches that process complex information simultaneously.

Today, they are integral to many AI functions—from OpenAI’s ChatGPT to image generation. Here’s how Nvidia stands up against companies that have achieved the trillion dollar milestone:

	Joined Club	Market Cap in trillions	Peak Market Cap in trillions
Apple	Aug 2018	$2.78	$2.94
Microsoft	Apr 2019	$2.47	$2.58
Aramco	Dec 2019	$2.06	$2.45
Alphabet	Jul 2020	$1.58	$1.98
Amazon	Apr 2020	$1.25	$1.88
Meta	Jun 2021	$0.68	$1.07
Tesla	Oct 2021	$0.63	$1.23
Nvidia	May 2023	$1.02	$1.02

Note: Market caps as of May 30th, 2023

After posting record sales, the company added $184 billion to its market value in one day. Only two other companies have exceeded this number: Amazon ($191 billion), and Apple ($191 billion).

As Nvidia’s market cap reaches new heights, many are wondering if its explosive growth will continue—or if the AI craze is merely temporary. There are cases to be made on both sides.

Bull Case Scenario

Big tech companies are racing to develop capabilities like OpenAI. These types of generative AI require vastly higher amounts of computing power, especially as they become more sophisticated.

Many tech giants, including Google and Microsoft use Nvidia chips to power their AI operations. Consider how Google plans to use generative AI in six products in the future. Each of these have over 2 billion users.

Nvidia has also launched new products days since its stratospheric rise, spanning from robotics to gaming. Leading the way is the A100, a powerful graphics processing unit (GPU) well-suited for machine learning. Additionally, it announced a new supercomputer platform that Google, Microsoft, and Meta are first in line for. Overall, 65,000 companies globally use the company’s chips for a wide range of functions.

Bear Case Scenario

While extreme investor optimism has launched Nvidia to record highs, how do some of its fundamental valuations stack up to other giants?

As the table below shows, its price to earnings (P/E) ratio is second-only to Amazon, at 214.4. This shows how much a shareholder pays compared to the earnings of a company. Here, the company’s share price is over 200 times its earnings on a per share basis.

	P/E Ratio	Net Profit Margin (Annual)
Apple	30.2	25.3%
Microsoft	36.1	36.7%
Aramco	13.5	26.4%
Alphabet	28.2	21.2%
Amazon	294.2	-0.5%
Meta	33.9	19.9%
Tesla	59.0	15.4%
Nvidia	214.4	16.19%

Consider how this looks for revenue of Nvidia compared to other big tech names:

$NVDA $963 billion market cap, 38x Revenue
$MSFT $2.5 trillion market cap, 12x Revenue$TSLA $612 billion market cap, 7.8x Revenue$AAPL $2.75 trillion market cap, 7.3x Revenue$GOOG $1.6 trillion market cap, 6.1x Revenue$META $672 billion market cap, 6x Revenue pic.twitter.com/VgkKAfiydx

— Martin Pelletier (@MPelletierCIO) May 29, 2023

For some, Nvidia’s valuation seems unrealistic even in spite of the prospects of AI. While Nvidia has $11 billion in projected revenue for the next quarter, it would still mean significantly higher multiples than its big tech peers. This suggests the company is overvalued at current prices.

Nvidia’s Growth: Will it Last?

This is not the first time Nvidia’s market cap has rocketed up.

During the crypto rally of 2021, its share price skyrocketed over 100% as demand for its GPUs increased. These specialist chips help mine cryptocurrency, and a jump in demand led to a shortage of chips at the time.

As cryptocurrencies lost their lustre, Nvidia’s share price sank over 46% the following year.

By comparison, AI advancements could have more transformative power. Big tech is rushing to partner with Nvidia, potentially reshaping everything from search to advertising.