Chart of the Week
Tech Founders Predict the Next Wave of Startup Growth
Tech Founders Predict the Next Wave of Startup Growth
Today’s tech founders have unique insights into the evolving arena of innovation and are keenly aware of why some companies succeed more than others. Many have worked with multiple startups and have gone on to invest in successful tech unicorns.
This week’s chart comes from First Round’s State of Startups 2018 survey, in which 529 founders shared their predictions on the tech startups best poised for growth and spin-off success.
Tech Startup Valuations
Stripe, the payments startup darling, has already grown from $1.8 billion in valuation in 2013 to over $22 billion today. According to the tech founders surveyed, 19% see Stripe continuing on this path in the years to come.
Q: Which U.S.-based tech startup’s value will increase the most in the next 10 years?
Rank | Startup | % of respondents |
---|---|---|
#1 | Stripe | 19.0% |
#2 | SpaceX | 12.7% |
#3 | Coinbase | 12.1% |
#4 | Slack | 11.3% |
#5 | Airbnb | 9.8% |
#6 | Palantir | 6.8% |
#7 | WeWork | 6.3% |
#8 | Uber | 5.3% |
#9 | Lyft | 4.7% |
#10 | 1.6% | |
Other | 10.3% |
It’s worth noting that this list includes some startups that have already IPO’d since the survey was released in December 2018.
In fact, in the first half of 2019, we’ve already seen Pinterest, Lyft, Uber, and Slack hit the market. Slack’s public offering was the most notable, as they chose to go the direct listing route. The share price still jumped 48.5% less than 24 hours after they went public.
The Next PayPal Mafia?
The PayPal Mafia is a legendary group of billionaire investor-entrepreneurs that have had far-reaching influence in the tech world since they parted ways with PayPal.
Not only did members of this group go on to start many major unicorns, including YouTube, SpaceX, LinkedIn, and Palantir, but some members have invested in over 100 startups each. This “giving back” has had a monumental impact on the Silicon Valley ecosystem, planting the seeds that would emerge as many of today’s star companies.
Q: Which U.S.-based company is most likely to spin out the next generation of notable founders over the next five years?
Rank | Startup | % of respondents |
---|---|---|
#1 | Uber | 22.5% |
#2 | Slack | 15.7% |
#3 | Stripe | 15.2% |
#4 | Airbnb | 13.9% |
#5 | Coinbase | 10.6% |
#6 | Palantir | 9.1% |
#7 | SpaceX | 4.2% |
#8 | Lyft | 1.8% |
#9 | WeWork | 1.8% |
#10 | Amazon | 1.1% |
Other | 4.2% |
Current tech founders predict that the companies listed in this survey will be perfect launching points for many of the world’s future tech founders.
Of all U.S.-based tech startups, Uber is predicted to be a top contender for producing the next generation of startup talent by 2023.
Other Survey Findings
Interestingly, over 60% of founders believe that the world is in a technology bubble, with evenly split reviews on whether it’s either nowhere close or very close to popping.
While 57% of founders believe the U.S. will continue to dominate the tech world, 39% predict China’s growth will become the world’s hub for tech innovation by 2028.
Only time will tell, as tensions between the U.S. and China continue to heat up, and the global recruitment of tech talent becomes increasingly competitive.
Chart of the Week
The Road to Recovery: Which Economies are Reopening?
We look at mobility rates as well as COVID-19 recovery rates for 41 economies, to see which countries are reopening for business.

The Road to Recovery: Which Economies are Reopening?
COVID-19 has brought the world to a halt—but after months of uncertainty, it seems that the situation is slowly taking a turn for the better.
Today’s chart measures the extent to which 41 major economies are reopening, by plotting two metrics for each country: the mobility rate and the COVID-19 recovery rate:
- Mobility Index
This refers to the change in activity around workplaces, subtracting activity around residences, measured as a percentage deviation from the baseline. - COVID-19 Recovery Rate
The number of recovered cases in a country is measured as the percentage of total cases.
Data for the first measure comes from Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, which relies on aggregated, anonymous location history data from individuals. Note that China does not show up in the graphic as the government bans Google services.
COVID-19 recovery rates rely on values from CoronaTracker, using aggregated information from multiple global and governmental databases such as WHO and CDC.
Reopening Economies, One Step at a Time
In general, the higher the mobility rate, the more economic activity this signifies. In most cases, mobility rate also correlates with a higher rate of recovered people in the population.
Here’s how these countries fare based on the above metrics.
Country | Mobility Rate | Recovery Rate | Total Cases | Total Recovered |
---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | -56% | 31.40% | 14,702 | 4,617 |
Australia | -41% | 92.03% | 7,150 | 6,580 |
Austria | -100% | 91.93% | 16,628 | 15,286 |
Belgium | -105% | 26.92% | 57,849 | 15,572 |
Brazil | -48% | 44.02% | 438,812 | 193,181 |
Canada | -67% | 52.91% | 88,512 | 46,831 |
Chile | -110% | 41.58% | 86,943 | 36,150 |
Colombia | -73% | 26.28% | 25,366 | 6,665 |
Czechia | -29% | 70.68% | 9,140 | 6,460 |
Denmark | -93% | 88.43% | 11,512 | 10,180 |
Finland | -93% | 81.57% | 6,743 | 5,500 |
France | -100% | 36.08% | 186,238 | 67,191 |
Germany | -99% | 89.45% | 182,452 | 163,200 |
Greece | -32% | 47.28% | 2,906 | 1,374 |
Hong Kong | -10% | 97.00% | 1,067 | 1,035 |
Hungary | -49% | 52.31% | 3,816 | 1,996 |
India | -65% | 42.88% | 165,386 | 70,920 |
Indonesia | -77% | 25.43% | 24,538 | 6,240 |
Ireland | -79% | 88.92% | 24,841 | 22,089 |
Israel | -31% | 87.00% | 16,872 | 14,679 |
Italy | -52% | 64.99% | 231,732 | 150,604 |
Japan | -33% | 84.80% | 16,683 | 14,147 |
Malaysia | -53% | 80.86% | 7,629 | 6,169 |
Mexico | -69% | 69.70% | 78,023 | 54,383 |
Netherlands | -97% | 0.01% | 45,950 | 3 |
New Zealand | -21% | 98.01% | 1,504 | 1,474 |
Norway | -100% | 91.87% | 8,411 | 7,727 |
Philippines | -87% | 23.08% | 15,588 | 3,598 |
Poland | -36% | 46.27% | 22,825 | 10,560 |
Portugal | -65% | 58.99% | 31,596 | 18,637 |
Singapore | -105% | 55.02% | 33,249 | 18,294 |
South Africa | -74% | 52.44% | 27,403 | 14,370 |
South Korea | -4% | 91.15% | 11,344 | 10,340 |
Spain | -67% | 69.11% | 284,986 | 196,958 |
Sweden | -93% | 13.91% | 35,727 | 4,971 |
Switzerland | -101% | 91.90% | 30,796 | 28,300 |
Taiwan | 4% | 95.24% | 441 | 420 |
Thailand | -36% | 96.08% | 3,065 | 2,945 |
U.S. | -56% | 28.20% | 1,768,346 | 498,720 |
United Kingdom | -82% | 0.05% | 269,127 | 135 |
Vietnam | 15% | 85.02% | 327 | 278 |
Mobility data as of May 21, 2020 (Latest available). COVID-19 case data as of May 29, 2020.
In the main scatterplot visualization, we’ve taken things a step further, assigning these countries into four distinct quadrants:
1. High Mobility, High Recovery
High recovery rates are resulting in lifted restrictions for countries in this quadrant, and people are steadily returning to work.
New Zealand has earned praise for its early and effective pandemic response, allowing it to curtail the total number of cases. This has resulted in a 98% recovery rate, the highest of all countries. After almost 50 days of lockdown, the government is recommending a flexible four-day work week to boost the economy back up.
2. High Mobility, Low Recovery
Despite low COVID-19 related recoveries, mobility rates of countries in this quadrant remain higher than average. Some countries have loosened lockdown measures, while others did not have strict measures in place to begin with.
Brazil is an interesting case study to consider here. After deferring lockdown decisions to state and local levels, the country is now averaging the highest number of daily cases out of any country. On May 28th, for example, the country had 24,151 new cases and 1,067 new deaths.
3. Low Mobility, High Recovery
Countries in this quadrant are playing it safe, and holding off on reopening their economies until the population has fully recovered.
Italy, the once-epicenter for the crisis in Europe is understandably wary of cases rising back up to critical levels. As a result, it has opted to keep its activity to a minimum to try and boost the 65% recovery rate, even as it slowly emerges from over 10 weeks of lockdown.
4. Low Mobility, Low Recovery
Last but not least, people in these countries are cautiously remaining indoors as their governments continue to work on crisis response.
With a low 0.05% recovery rate, the United Kingdom has no immediate plans to reopen. A two-week lag time in reporting discharged patients from NHS services may also be contributing to this low number. Although new cases are leveling off, the country has the highest coronavirus-caused death toll across Europe.
The U.S. also sits in this quadrant with over 1.7 million cases and counting. Recently, some states have opted to ease restrictions on social and business activity, which could potentially result in case numbers climbing back up.
Over in Sweden, a controversial herd immunity strategy meant that the country continued business as usual amid the rest of Europe’s heightened regulations. Sweden’s COVID-19 recovery rate sits at only 13.9%, and the country’s -93% mobility rate implies that people have been taking their own precautions.
COVID-19’s Impact on the Future
It’s important to note that a “second wave” of new cases could upend plans to reopen economies. As countries reckon with these competing risks of health and economic activity, there is no clear answer around the right path to take.
COVID-19 is a catalyst for an entirely different future, but interestingly, it’s one that has been in the works for a while.
Without being melodramatic, COVID-19 is like the last nail in the coffin of globalization…The 2008-2009 crisis gave globalization a big hit, as did Brexit, as did the U.S.-China trade war, but COVID is taking it to a new level.
—Carmen Reinhart, incoming Chief Economist for the World Bank
Will there be any chance of returning to “normal” as we know it?
Markets
Visualizing the Countries Most Reliant on Tourism
With international travel grinding to a halt, here are the economies that have the most to lose from a lack of tourism.

Visualizing the Countries Most Reliant on Tourism
Without a steady influx of tourism revenue, many countries could face severe economic damage.
As the global travel and tourism industry stalls, the spillover effects to global employment are wide-reaching. A total of 330 million jobs are supported by this industry around the world, and it contributes 10%, or $8.9 trillion to global GDP each year.
Today’s infographic uses data from the World Travel & Tourism Council, and it highlights the countries that depend the most on the travel and tourism industry according to employment—quantifying the scale that the industry contributes to the health of the global economy.
Ground Control
Worldwide, 44 countries rely on the travel and tourism industry for more than 15% of their total share of employment. Unsurprisingly, many of the countries suffering the most economic damage are island nations.
At the same time, data reveals the extent to which certain larger nations rely on tourism. In New Zealand, for example, 479,000 jobs are generated by the travel and tourism industry, while in Cambodia tourism contributes to 2.4 million jobs.
Rank | Country | T&T Share of Jobs (2019) | T&T Jobs (2019) | Population |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Antigua & Barbuda | 91% | 33,800 | 97,900 |
2 | Aruba | 84% | 35,000 | 106,800 |
3 | St. Lucia | 78% | 62,900 | 183,600 |
4 | US Virgin Islands | 69% | 28,800 | 104,400 |
5 | Macau | 66% | 253,700 | 649,300 |
6 | Maldives | 60% | 155,600 | 540,500 |
7 | St. Kitts & Nevis | 59% | 14,100 | 53,200 |
8 | British Virgin Islands | 54% | 5,500 | 30,200 |
9 | Bahamas | 52% | 103,900 | 393,200 |
10 | Anguilla | 51% | 3,800 | 15,000 |
11 | St. Vincent & the Grenadines | 45% | 19,900 | 110,900 |
12 | Seychelles | 44% | 20,600 | 98,300 |
13 | Grenada | 43% | 24,300 | 112,500 |
14 | Former Netherlands Antilles | 41% | 25,700 | 26,200 |
15 | Belize | 39% | 64,800 | 397,600 |
16 | Cape Verde | 39% | 98,300 | 556,000 |
17 | Dominica | 39% | 13,600 | 72,000 |
18 | Vanuatu | 36% | 29,000 | 307,100 |
19 | Barbados | 33% | 44,900 | 287,400 |
20 | Cayman Islands | 33% | 12,300 | 65,700 |
21 | Jamaica | 33% | 406,100 | 2,961,000 |
22 | Montenegro | 33% | 66,900 | 628,100 |
23 | Georgia | 28% | 488,200 | 3,989,000 |
24 | Cambodia | 26% | 2,371,100 | 16,719,000 |
25 | Fiji | 26% | 90,700 | 896,400 |
26 | Croatia | 25% | 383,400 | 4,105,000 |
27 | Philippines | 24% | 10,237,700 | 109,600,000 |
28 | Sao Tome and Principe | 23% | 14,500 | 219,200 |
29 | Bermuda | 23% | 7,800 | 62,300 |
30 | Albania | 22% | 254,300 | 2,880,000 |
31 | Iceland | 22% | 44,100 | 341,200 |
32 | Greece | 22% | 846,200 | 10,420,000 |
33 | Thailand | 21% | 8,054,600 | 69,800,000 |
34 | Malta | 21% | 52,800 | 441,500 |
35 | New Zealand | 20% | 479,400 | 4,822,000 |
36 | Lebanon | 19% | 434,200 | 6,825,000 |
37 | Mauritius | 19% | 104,200 | 1,272,000 |
38 | Portugal | 19% | 902,400 | 10,197,000 |
39 | Kiribati | 18% | 6,600 | 119,000 |
40 | Gambia | 18% | 129,600 | 2,417,000 |
41 | Jordan | 18% | 254,700 | 10,200,000 |
42 | Dominican Republic | 17% | 810,800 | 10,848,000 |
43 | Uruguay | 16% | 262,500 | 3,474,000 |
44 | Namibia | 15% | 114,600 | 2,541,000 |
Croatia, another tourist hotspot, is hoping to reopen in time for peak season—the country generated tourism revenues of $13B in 2019. With a population of over 4 million, travel and tourism contributes to 25% of its workforce.
How the 20 Largest Economies Stack Up
Tourist-centric countries remain the hardest hit from global travel bans, but the world’s biggest economies are also feeling the impact.
In Spain, tourism ranks as the third highest contributor to its economy. If lockdowns remain in place until September, it is projected to lose $68 billion (€62 billion) in revenues.
Rank | Country | Travel and Tourism, Contribution to GDP |
---|---|---|
1 | Mexico | 15.5% |
2 | Spain | 14.3% |
3 | Italy | 13.0% |
4 | Turkey | 11.3% |
5 | China | 11.3% |
6 | Australia | 10.8% |
7 | Saudi Arabia | 9.5% |
8 | Germany | 9.1% |
9 | United Kingdom | 9.0% |
10 | U.S. | 8.6% |
11 | France | 8.5% |
12 | Brazil | 7.7% |
13 | Switzerland | 7.6% |
14 | Japan | 7.0% |
15 | India | 6.8% |
16 | Canada | 6.3% |
17 | Netherlands | 5.7% |
18 | Indonesia | 5.7% |
19 | Russia | 5.0% |
20 | South Korea | 2.8% |
On the other hand, South Korea is impacted the least: just 2.8% of its GDP is reliant on tourism.
Travel, Interrupted
Which countries earn the most from the travel and tourism industry in absolute dollar terms?
Topping the list was the U.S., with tourism contributing over $1.8 trillion to its economy, or 8.6% of its GDP in 2019. The U.S. remains a global epicenter for COVID-19 cases, and details remain unconfirmed if the country will reopen to visitors before summer.
Meanwhile, the contribution of travel and tourism to China’s economy has more than doubled over the last decade, approaching $1.6 trillion. To help bolster economic activity, China and South Korea have eased restrictions by establishing a travel corridor.
As countries slowly reopen, other travel bubbles are beginning to make headway. For example, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have eased travel restrictions by creating an established travel zone. Australia and New Zealand have a similar arrangement on the horizon. These travel bubbles allow citizens from each country to travel within a given zone.
Of course, COVID-19 will have a lasting impact on employment and global economic activity with inconceivable outcomes. When the dust finally settles, could global tourism face a reckoning?
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