Visualizing the Coming Shift in Global Economic Power (2006-2036p)
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Visualizing the Coming Shift in Global Economic Power (2006-2036p)

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Visualizing the Coming Shift in Global Economic Power (2006-2036p)

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Visualizing the Shift in Global Economic Power

As the post-pandemic recovery chugs along, the global economy is set to see major changes in the coming decades. Most significantly, China is forecast to pass the United States to become the largest economy globally.

The world’s economic center has long been drifting from Europe and North America over to Asia. This global shift was kickstarted by lowered trade barriers and greater economic freedom, which attracted foreign direct investment (FDI). Another major driving factor was the improvements in infrastructure and communications, and a general increase in economic complexity in the region.

Our visualization uses data from the 13th edition of World Economic League Table 2022, a forecast published by the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

When Will China Become the Largest Economic Power?

China is expected to surpass the U.S. by the year 2030. A faster than expected recovery in the U.S. in 2021, and China’s struggles under the “Zero-COVID” policies have delayed the country taking the top spot by about two years.

China has maintained its positive GDP growth due to the stability provided by domestic demand. This has proven crucial in sustaining the country’s economic growth. China’s fiscal and economic policy had focused on this prior to the pandemic over fears of growing Western trade restrictions.

India is Primed for the #3 Spot

India is expected to become the third largest country in terms of GDP with $10.8 trillion projected in 2031.

Looking back, India had a GDP of just $949 billion in 2006. Fast forward to today and India’s GDP has more than tripled, reaching $3.1 trillion in 2022. Over the next 15 years, it’s expected to triple yet again. What is behind this impressive growth?

For starters, the country’s economy had a lot more room to improve than other nations. Demographics are also working in the country’s favor. While the median age in many mature economies is shooting up, India has a youthful workforce. In fact, India’s median age is a full 20 years lower than Japan, which is currently the third largest economy.

Over the last 60 years, the service industry has boomed to around 55% of India’s GDP. Telecommunications, software, and IT generate most of the revenue in this sector. IT alone produces 10% of the country’s GDP. India’s large tech-savvy, English-speaking workforce has proved attractive for international companies like Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, IBM, and many others, while the domestic startup scene continues to boom.

The Indian government is also pursuing “production-linked incentives” (i.e. subsidies) for multinational companies looking to diversify their production away from China. If these incentives prove successful, more of the world’s solar panels and smartphones will be produced within India’s borders.

How Will the Global Economy Look in 2031?

By the year 2031, there will be major changes in the global economic power rankings.

As we said before: China will have become the world’s largest economy in terms of GDP and India will be the world’s third largest economy. Let’s also take a look at the top 10 economies by 2031.

RankCountryRegionProjected GDP in 2031
(in Trillions of USD)
1🇨🇳 ChinaAsia$37.6
2🇺🇸 United StatesNorth America$35.4
3🇮🇳 IndiaAsia$6.8
4🇯🇵 JapanAsia$6.4
5🇩🇪 GermanyEurope$6.3
6🇬🇧 United KingdomEurope$4.6
7🇫🇷 FranceEurope$4.2
8🇧🇷 BrazilSouth America$3.1
9🇨🇦 CanadaNorth America$3.0
10🇮🇹 ItalyEurope$3.0

Out of the top five economies, three are located in Asia: China, India, and Japan⁠—a clear demonstration of how economic power is shifting towards large population centers in Asia.

Europe will have four countries in the top 10: Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy. From South America, only Brazil appears in the top 10.

Under these projections, Russia sits outside the top 10 in 2031. Of course, it remains to be seen how crushing sanctions and global isolation will affect the economic trajectory of the country.

Now, the big question. Is it inevitable that China takes the top spot in the global economy as predicted by this forecast? The truth is that nothing is guaranteed. Other projections have modeled reasonable alternative scenarios for China’s economy. A debt crisis, international isolation, or a shrinking population could keep China’s economy in second place for longer than expected.

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Agriculture

Charted: U.S. Egg Prices More Than Double in 2022

This chart shows the increase in the national average price of a dozen Grade A eggs in the U.S. in 2022.

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This chart shows the increase in the national average price of a dozen grade-A eggs in the U.S. in 2022.

Charted: U.S. Egg Prices Double in 2022

Eggs are a staple food for many countries around the world, and the U.S. is no exception. Americans eat between 250‒280 eggs a year on average.

Eggs are also easy to cook, protein-dense and supply many daily vitamins needed for healthy living, making them a popular meal or ingredient. So when egg prices rise, people notice.

MetalytIQ charted the rapid rise of egg prices in the U.S. during 2022, using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS).

Eggs-asperating Prices

Over the course of 12 months, the national average price for a dozen large Grade A eggs more than doubled, to $4.25 in December from $1.93 in January.

Egg Prices Per Month (2022)Price per dozen
January$1.30
February$2.10
March$2.50
April$2.52
May$2.86
June$2.71
July$2.94
August$3.12
September$2.90
October$3.42
November$3.59
December$4.25

The biggest culprit has been an avian flu outbreak that resulted in 43 million chickens culled to prevent the spread of the disease.

This led to a severe shortfall in egg supply. Egg inventories in December had fallen by one-third compared to January. Combined with increasing demand during the holiday season, prices skyrocketed and empty shelves became apparent in some states.

This is not the first time avian flu has disrupted the industry.. In 2015, a similar outbreak pushed egg prices up 40% in nine months, reaching a high of $2.97 per dozen eggs in September 2015.

Will Egg Prices Drop in 2023?

Avian flu isn’t the only storm the egg industry has been facing in 2022.

The prices of soybean and corn—the main components of bird feed—account for half of the cost of eggs. They’ve been heavily affected by the war in Ukraine, which has driven grain prices higher.

In the near-term, egg prices are expected to remain high. Containing the avian flu outbreak will remain the biggest factor in determining the prices, but as suppliers increase production, prices may cool off a little in 2023.

Eggs and dairy make up nearly 10% of the average person’s daily calorie intake. Check out the rest of our dietary make-up in Visualizing a Rapidly Changing Global Diet.
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