Healthcare
Visualizing the History of Pandemics
The History of Pandemics
Pan·dem·ic /panˈdemik/ (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world.
As humans have spread across the world, so have infectious diseases. Even in this modern era, outbreaks are nearly constant, though not every outbreak reaches pandemic level as COVID-19 has.
Today’s visualization outlines some of history’s most deadly pandemics, from the Antonine Plague to the current COVID-19 event.
A Timeline of Historical Pandemics
Disease and illnesses have plagued humanity since the earliest days, our mortal flaw. However, it was not until the marked shift to agrarian communities that the scale and spread of these diseases increased dramatically.
Widespread trade created new opportunities for human and animal interactions that sped up such epidemics. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox, and others first appeared during these early years.
The more civilized humans became – with larger cities, more exotic trade routes, and increased contact with different populations of people, animals, and ecosystems – the more likely pandemics would occur.
Here are some of the major pandemics that have occurred over time:
Name | Time period | Type / Pre-human host | Death toll |
---|---|---|---|
Antonine Plague | 165-180 | Believed to be either smallpox or measles | 5M |
Japanese smallpox epidemic | 735-737 | Variola major virus | 1M |
Plague of Justinian | 541-542 | Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas | 30-50M |
Black Death | 1347-1351 | Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas | 200M |
New World Smallpox Outbreak | 1520 – onwards | Variola major virus | 56M |
Great Plague of London | 1665 | Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas | 100,000 |
Italian plague | 1629-1631 | Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas | 1M |
Cholera Pandemics 1-6 | 1817-1923 | V. cholerae bacteria | 1M+ |
Third Plague | 1885 | Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas | 12M (China and India) |
Yellow Fever | Late 1800s | Virus / Mosquitoes | 100,000-150,000 (U.S.) |
Russian Flu | 1889-1890 | Believed to be H2N2 (avian origin) | 1M |
Spanish Flu | 1918-1919 | H1N1 virus / Pigs | 40-50M |
Asian Flu | 1957-1958 | H2N2 virus | 1.1M |
Hong Kong Flu | 1968-1970 | H3N2 virus | 1M |
HIV/AIDS | 1981-present | Virus / Chimpanzees | 25-35M |
Swine Flu | 2009-2010 | H1N1 virus / Pigs | 200,000 |
SARS | 2002-2003 | Coronavirus / Bats, Civets | 770 |
Ebola | 2014-2016 | Ebolavirus / Wild animals | 11,000 |
MERS | 2015-Present | Coronavirus / Bats, camels | 850 |
COVID-19 | 2019-Present | Coronavirus – Unknown (possibly pangolins) | 6.9M (Johns Hopkins University estimate as of March 1, 2023) |
Note: Many of the death toll numbers listed above are best estimates based on available research. Some, such as the Plague of Justinian and Swine Flu, are subject to debate based on new evidence.
Despite the persistence of disease and pandemics throughout history, there’s one consistent trend over time – a gradual reduction in the death rate. Healthcare improvements and understanding the factors that incubate pandemics have been powerful tools in mitigating their impact.
March 1, 2023 Update: Due to popular request, we’ve also visualized how the death tolls of each pandemic stack up as a share of total estimated global populations at the time.
Wrath of the Gods
In many ancient societies, people believed that spirits and gods inflicted disease and destruction upon those that deserved their wrath. This unscientific perception often led to disastrous responses that resulted in the deaths of thousands, if not millions.
In the case of Justinian’s plague, the Byzantine historian Procopius of Caesarea traced the origins of the plague (the Yersinia pestis bacteria) to China and northeast India, via land and sea trade routes to Egypt where it entered the Byzantine Empire through Mediterranean ports.
Despite his apparent knowledge of the role geography and trade played in this spread, Procopius laid blame for the outbreak on the Emperor Justinian, declaring him to be either a devil, or invoking God’s punishment for his evil ways. Some historians found that this event could have dashed Emperor Justinian’s efforts to reunite the Western and Eastern remnants of the Roman Empire, and marked the beginning of the Dark Ages.
Luckily, humanity’s understanding of the causes of disease has improved, and this is resulting in a drastic improvement in the response to modern pandemics, albeit slow and incomplete.
Importing Disease
The practice of quarantine began during the 14th century, in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague epidemics. Cautious port authorities required ships arriving in Venice from infected ports to sit at anchor for 40 days before landing — the origin of the word quarantine from the Italian “quaranta giorni”, or 40 days.
One of the first instances of relying on geography and statistical analysis was in mid-19th century London, during a cholera outbreak. In 1854, Dr. John Snow came to the conclusion that cholera was spreading via tainted water and decided to display neighborhood mortality data directly on a map. This method revealed a cluster of cases around a specific pump from which people were drawing their water from.
While the interactions created through trade and urban life play a pivotal role, it is also the virulent nature of particular diseases that indicate the trajectory of a pandemic.
Tracking Infectiousness
Scientists use a basic measure to track the infectiousness of a disease called the reproduction number — also known as R0 or “R naught.” This number tells us how many susceptible people, on average, each sick person will in turn infect.
Measles tops the list, being the most contagious with a R0 range of 12-18. This means a single person can infect, on average, 12 to 18 people in an unvaccinated population.
While measles may be the most virulent, vaccination efforts and herd immunity can curb its spread. The more people are immune to a disease, the less likely it is to proliferate, making vaccinations critical to prevent the resurgence of known and treatable diseases.
It’s hard to calculate and forecast the true impact of COVID-19, as the outbreak is still ongoing and researchers are still learning about this new form of coronavirus.
Urbanization and the Spread of Disease
We arrive at where we began, with rising global connections and interactions as a driving force behind pandemics. From small hunting and gathering tribes to the metropolis, humanity’s reliance on one another has also sparked opportunities for disease to spread.
Urbanization in the developing world is bringing more and more rural residents into denser neighborhoods, while population increases are putting greater pressure on the environment. At the same time, passenger air traffic nearly doubled in the past decade. These macro trends are having a profound impact on the spread of infectious disease.
As organizations and governments around the world ask for citizens to practice social distancing to help reduce the rate of infection, the digital world is allowing people to maintain connections and commerce like never before.
Editor’s Note: The COVID-19 pandemic is in its early stages and it is obviously impossible to predict its future impact. This post and infographic are meant to provide historical context, and we will continue to update it as time goes on to maintain its accuracy.
Update (March 1, 2023): We’ve adjusted the death toll for COVID-19, and will continue to update on a regular basis.
Healthcare
What Causes Preventable Child Deaths?
Between 1990 and 2022, preventable child deaths more than halved. However there are still challenges to overcome.
What Causes Preventable Child Deaths?
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on Apple or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
One of the often-overlooked successes of the modern era is the light-speed innovation in healthcare, easily seen in improvements in life expectancy.
The drop in infant mortality is another example. In 1990, more than 12 million preventable child deaths occurred. Three decades later, that number has more than halved. Nevertheless, despite gains, there are still challenges left to overcome.
We visualize leading causes of death in 2022 for children under the age of five according to a UNICEF report, published March 2024.
Ranked: The Causes of Death for Children Under Five
Globally, 4.9 million children under the age of five died in 2022.
Rank | Cause | % of Global Under-Five Deaths in 2022 |
---|---|---|
1 | Prematurity | 18% |
2 | Pneumonia | 14% |
3 | Birth Asphyxia | 12% |
4 | Malaria | 9% |
5 | Diarrhea | 9% |
6 | Congenital Anomalies | 8% |
7 | Injuries | 5% |
8 | Sepsis | 3% |
9 | Tuberculosis | 3% |
N/A | Other | 19% |
Figures are rounded.
Nearly one-in-five of all deaths occurred because the baby was born too early, before 37 weeks of pregnancy were completed.
However there’s a huge caveat to this particular cause of death.
In low income countries, where health infrastructure is suboptimal, half of the babies born two months early do not survive. For the same preterm babies in high income countries, nearly all survive. This indicates how much neonatal support (access to warmth, breastfeeding, and basic infections care) can reduce infant mortality.
Pneumonia is another significant cause of under-five deaths. It’s an acute respiratory infection, and is extremely contagious: through air, fluids, and contaminated surfaces. Exposure to air pollution significantly increases the risk of developing pneumonia.
However, pneumonia caused by bacteria is also extremely treatable through low-cost antibiotics, and preventable through the pneumococcal (PCV) vaccine.
Put together, preterm births and pneumonia cause nearly one-in-three preventable child deaths.
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