Markets

Visualizing the Future of the Pharma Market

Published

4 years ago

January 30, 2019

Jeff Desjardins

Drug Market Outlook

Visualizing the Future of the Pharma Market

Around the world, people are living longer.

By 2050, there will be two billion people that are 60 years or older globally. Meanwhile, the amount of seniors (65+ years old) in the U.S. will double to 100 million by 2060.

To meet the needs of this aging population, we will continue to need larger quantities and more varieties of prescription drug treatments – an industry that is expected to skyrocket to $1.2 trillion in size by 2024.

Drug Sales, by Segment

Today’s infographic comes to us from Raconteur, and it highlights the most anticipated drug treatments and therapy areas for the pharmaceutical industry.

It starts by breaking down the massive pharma market into therapy segments, showing a forecast for the size and growth for each category.

Here is the data for the top 15 segments, sorted by projected worldwide prescription drug sales in 2024:

Rank	Therapy Area	2017 sales	2024 sales	CAGR
#1	Oncology	$104B	$233B	+12.2%
#2	Anti-diabetics	$46.1B	$59.5B	+3.3%
#3	Anti-rheumatics	$55.7B	$56.7B	+0.2%
#4	Vaccines	$27.7B	$44.6B	+7.1%
#5	Anti-virals	$42.4B	$39.9B	-0.9%
#6	Immunosuppressants	$13.7B	$38.1B	+15.7%
#7	Bronchodilators	$27.2B	$32.3B	+2.5%
#8	Dermatologicals	$12.9B	$30.3B	+13%
#9	Sensory Organs	$21.6B	$26.9B	+3.2%
#10	Anti-hypertensives	$23B	$24.4B	+0.8%
#11	Anti-coagulants	$16.8B	$22.9B	+4.6%
#12	MS Therapies	$22.7B	$21.5B	-0.8%
#13	Anti-fibrinolytics	$12.7B	$20.4B	+7.1%
#14	Anti-hyperlipidaemics	$11.3B	$16.4B	+5.5%
#15	Anti-anaemics	$7.6B	$15.7B	+11%
	Other	$379B	$567B	+5.9%
	Total	$825B	$1249B	+6.1%

This data, which comes from a recent report from EvaluatePharma, helps showcase a few key insights.

Firstly, the oncology therapy area – which makes drugs that are used to treat various forms of cancer – is by far the largest in the pharma world with $107 billion in sales in 2017. It’s also projected to maintain its dominance going forward, growing at an impressive 12.2% CAGR to $233 billion by 2024.

Next, while sales in cancer-related drugs will be the most in absolute terms, the fastest growing treatment area is actually in immunosuppressants – a segment of drugs that make a body less likely to reject a transplanted organ, such as a liver, heart, or kidney. It’s projected that this segment will grow at 15.7% per year, eventually becoming the sixth largest pharma segment at $38.1 billion in 2024.

Lastly, while sales in the pharma market will be averaging 6.1% in annual growth as a whole, there are two major segments that will see negative annual growth going forward: Anti-virals (-0.9%) and MS Therapies (-0.8%).

The Battle Against Cancer

Currently, there are more drugs used for treating cancer than for any other type of disease or condition.

Rank	Disease or Condition	Number of active drugs
#1	Breast cancer	727
#2	Lung cancer	544
#3	Colorectal cancer	503
#4	Ovarian cancer	434
#5	Pancreatic cancer	430
#6	Type-2 diabetes	407
#7	Prostate cancer	381
-	Alzheimer's disease	381

Unfortunately, even though many cancer drugs are available on the market already, the debilitating disease is still a leading cause of death. Existing drugs are used in treatments of chemotherapy or hormone therapy, but it’s clear that there is still plenty of room for progress to be made against the disease.

For these reasons – combined with the estimate that nearly 40% of Americans will be diagnosed with some form of cancer during their lifetimes – it’s no surprise to see that companies have yet even more cancer drugs in the pipeline:

Rank	Therapy area	Number of drugs in pipeline
#1	Anti-cancer	5,212
#2	Biotechnology	4,751
#3	Neurological	2,604
#4	Anti-infective	2,238
#5	Alimentary/metabolic	2,237
#6	Reformulations	2,073
#7	Musculoskeletal	1,597
#8	Dermatological	929

As more drugs get approved from the above pipeline, it is projected that $1 of every $5 spent on prescription drugs in 2024 will be going towards cancer-related treatments.

Related Topics:healthcare cancer anti-cancer medicine oncology pharmaceuticals biotech

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Real Estate

Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country

Global house prices were resilient in 2022, rising 6%. We compare nominal and real price growth by country as interest rates surged.

Published

7 hours ago

June 9, 2023

Dorothy Neufeld

Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

Global housing prices rose an average of 6% annually, between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022.

In real terms that take inflation into account, prices actually fell 2% for the first decline in 12 years. Despite a surge in interest rates and mortgage costs, housing markets were noticeably stable. Real prices remain 7% above pre-pandemic levels.

In this graphic, we show the change in residential property prices with data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The Growth in House Prices, Ranked

The following dataset from the BIS covers nominal and real house price growth across 58 countries and regions as of the fourth quarter of 2022:

Price Growth Rank	Country / Region	Nominal Year-over-Year Change (%)	Real Year-over-Year Change (%)
1	🇹🇷 Türkiye	167.9	51.0
2	🇷🇸 Serbia	23.1	7.0
3	🇷🇺 Russia	23.1	9.7
4	🇲🇰 North Macedonia	20.6	1.0
5	🇮🇸 Iceland	20.3	9.9
6	🇭🇷 Croatia	17.3	3.6
7	🇪🇪 Estonia	16.9	-3.0
8	🇮🇱 Israel	16.8	11.0
9	🇭🇺 Hungary	16.5	-5.1
10	🇱🇹 Lithuania	16.0	-5.5
11	🇸🇮 Slovenia	15.4	4.2
12	🇧🇬 Bulgaria	13.4	-3.2
13	🇬🇷 Greece	12.2	3.7
14	🇵🇹 Portugal	11.3	1.3
15	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	10.0	-0.7
16	🇸🇰 Slovak Republic	9.7	-4.8
17	🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates	9.6	2.9
18	🇵🇱 Poland	9.3	-6.9
19	🇱🇻 Latvia	9.1	-10.2
20	🇸🇬 Singapore	8.6	1.9
21	🇮🇪 Ireland	8.6	-0.2
22	🇨🇱 Chile	8.2	-3.0
23	🇯🇵 Japan	7.9	3.9
24	🇲🇽 Mexico	7.9	-0.1
25	🇵🇭 Philippines	7.7	-0.2
26	🇺🇸 United States	7.1	0.0
27	🇨🇿 Czechia	6.9	-7.6
28	🇷🇴 Romania	6.7	-7.5
29	🇲🇹 Malta	6.3	-0.7
30	🇨🇾 Cyprus	6.3	-2.9
31	🇨🇴 Colombia	6.3	-5.6
32	🇱🇺 Luxembourg	5.6	-0.5
33	🇪🇸 Spain	5.5	-1.1
34	🇨🇭 Switzerland	5.4	2.4
35	🇳🇱 Netherlands	5.4	-5.3
36	🇦🇹 Austria	5.2	-4.8
37	🇫🇷 France	4.8	-1.2
38	🇧🇪 Belgium	4.7	-5.7
39	🇹🇭 Thailand	4.7	-1.1
40	🇿🇦 South Africa	3.1	-4.0
41	🇮🇳 India	2.8	-3.1
42	🇮🇹 Italy	2.8	-8.0
43	🇳🇴 Norway	2.6	-3.8
44	🇮🇩 Indonesia	2.0	-3.4
45	🇵🇪 Peru	1.5	-6.3
46	🇲🇾 Malaysia	1.2	-2.6
47	🇰🇷 South Korea	-0.1	-5.0
48	🇲🇦 Morocco	-0.1	-7.7
49	🇧🇷 Brazil	-0.1	-5.8
50	🇫🇮 Finland	-2.3	-10.2
51	🇩🇰 Denmark	-2.4	-10.6
52	🇦🇺 Australia	-3.2	-10.2
53	🇩🇪 Germany	-3.6	-12.1
54	🇸🇪 Sweden	-3.7	-13.7
55	🇨🇳 China	-3.7	-5.4
56	🇨🇦 Canada	-3.8	-9.8
57	🇳🇿 New Zealand	-10.4	-16.5
58	🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR	-13.5	-15.1

Türkiye’s property prices jumped the highest globally, at nearly 168% amid soaring inflation.

Real estate demand has increased alongside declining interest rates. The government drastically cut interest rates from 19% in late 2021 to 8.5% to support a weakening economy.

Many European countries saw some of the highest price growth in nominal terms. A strong labor market and low interest rates pushed up prices, even as mortgage rates broadly doubled across the continent. For real price growth, most countries were in negative territory—notably Sweden, Germany, and Denmark.

Nominal U.S. housing prices grew just over 7%, while real price growth halted to 0%. Prices have remained elevated given the stubbornly low supply of inventory. In fact, residential prices remain 45% above pre-pandemic levels.

How Do Interest Rates Impact Property Markets?

Global house prices boomed during the pandemic as central banks cut interest rates to prop up economies.

Now, rates have returned to levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. On average, rates have increased four percentage points in many major economies. Roughly three-quarters of the countries in the BIS dataset witnessed negative year-over-year real house price growth as of the fourth quarter of 2022.

Interest rates have a large impact on property prices. Cross-country evidence shows that for every one percentage point increase in real interest rates, the growth rate of housing prices tends to fall by about two percentage points.

When Will Housing Prices Fall?

The rise in U.S. interest rates has been counteracted by homeowners being reluctant to sell so they can keep their low mortgage rates. As a result, it is keeping inventory low and prices high. Homeowners can’t sell and keep their low mortgage rates unless they meet strict conditions on a new property.

Additionally, several other factors impact price dynamics. Construction costs, income growth, labor shortages, and population growth all play a role.

With a strong labor market continuing through 2023, stable incomes may help stave off prices from falling. On the other hand, buyers with floating-rate mortgages face steeper costs and may be unable to afford new rates. This could increase housing supply in the market, potentially leading to lower prices.