Misc
Crunching the Numbers on Mortality
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Crunching the Numbers on Mortality
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One of the key traits that make human beings unique on planet Earth is that we’re aware of our own mortality.
Scientific advances have given us insight into which behaviors may prolong life, and which activities carry the greatest risk of death. Naturally, there have been some unique attempts to create a unified structure around risk and benefit, and to quantify every aspect of the human lifespan.
As today’s graphic from TitleMax demonstrates, even when we’re thinking about death, the human desire to codify the world around us is alive and well.
Mortality Units
Certain events – such as a parachute failing to open or being hit by a meteor – have an easily quantifiable effect on life, but how do we measure the riskiness of day-to-day habits and situations? This is where a unique unit of measurement, micromorts, comes into play.
This concept, invented by renowned decision analyst Ronald A. Howard, helps compare any number of potentially lethal risks. One micromort equals a one in a million chance of sudden death. Here’s the riskiness of various activities measured in micromorts:
Activity | Micromorts |
---|---|
Ascending Mount Everest | 37,932 |
Getting out of bed (Age 90) | 463 |
Being born (first day of life) | 430 |
Giving birth | 170 |
Playing Football | 20 |
Riding a motorcycle | 10 |
Running a marathon | 7 |
Rock climbing | 3 |
Travelling 6,000 miles by train | 1 |
Travelling 230 miles by car | 1 |
Life Units
The average person, by the time they reach adulthood, will live approximately one million half-hours. Those 30 minute units are known as microlives.
The microlife concept was invented by professor David Spiegelhalter as a way to measure the consequences of various behaviors. For example, 20 minutes of physical activity earns us two microlives, while watching TV for two hours subtracts one microlife.
This measurement extends beyond nutrition and eating habits. Simply living in a modern era earns us an additional 15 microlives per day compared to those who lived a century earlier.
Casting the die on how we’ll die
How will the estimated 353,000 humans that will be born today eventually meet their end? This was the thought experiment conducted by Reddit user, Presneeze.
While our focus is often drawn to people who meet their end in spectacular and tragic ways, the vast majority of humanity will succumb to conditions such as heart disease and cancer.
Geography can play a big role in shifting these odds:
- In the United States, which is grappling with an opioid addiction crisis, there is a 1-in-96 chance of dying from a drug overdose.
- Diarrheal diseases may not be on the radar of most people living in first world countries, but in developing regions, they remain a leading cause of preventable death – particularly for children.
- In Russia, the odds are 1-in-4 that a man will not live beyond 55 years. The main culprit? Vodka.
On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
–Chuck Palahniuk
Demographics
Mapped: Population Growth by Region (1900-2050F)
In this visualization, we map the populations of major regions at three different points in time: 1900, 2000, and 2050 (forecasted).
Mapping Population Growth by Region
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
In fewer than 50 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from 4 to 8 billion.
In this visualization, we map the populations of major regions at three different points in time: 1900, 2000, and 2050 (forecasted). Figures come from Our World in Data as of March 2023, using the United Nations medium-fertility scenario.
Population by Continent (1900-2050F)
Asia was the biggest driver of global population growth over the course of the 20th century. In fact, the continent’s population grew by 2.8 billion people from 1900 to 2000, compared to just 680 million from the second on our list, Africa.
Region | 1900 | 2000 | 2050F |
---|---|---|---|
Asia | 931,021,418 | 3,735,089,775 | 5,291,555,919 |
Africa | 138,752,199 | 818,952,374 | 2,485,135,689 |
Europe | 406,610,221 | 727,917,165 | 704,398,730 |
North America | 104,231,973 | 486,364,446 | 679,488,449 |
South America | 41,330,704 | 349,634,344 | 491,078,697 |
Oceania | 5,936,615 | 31,223,133 | 57,834,753 |
World 🌐 | 1,627,883,130 | 6,149,181,237 | 9,709,492,237 |
China was the main source of Asia’s population expansion, though its population growth has slowed in recent years. That’s why in 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country.
Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines and Indonesia have also been big drivers of Asia’s population boom to this point.
The Future: Africa to Hit 2.5 Billion by 2050
Under the UN’s medium-fertility scenario (all countries converge at a birthrate of 1.85 children per woman by 2050), Africa will solidify its place as the world’s second most populous region.
Three countries—Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt—will account for roughly 30% of that 2.5 billion population figure.
Meanwhile, both North America and South America are expected to see a slowdown in population growth, while Europe is the only region that will shrink by 2050.
A century ago, Europe’s population was close to 30% of the world total. Today, that figure stands at less than 10%.
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