The Future of Automotive Innovation
Since the invention of the internal combustion engine, there have been many incredible innovations made in the auto industry.
Manufacturers created new body styles and market segments, automatic transmissions and power steering were introduced, and safety features such as airbags made passengers much safer. Computers were even added into cars to optimize performance and provide GPS for navigation purposes.
In short, vehicles got cheaper, lighter, stronger, safer, cleaner, faster, and more luxurious.
But despite this, there is a strong case that the biggest innovations in the auto industry are yet to come.
A New Era of Automotive Innovation
Today’s infographic comes to us from Evolve ETFs and it explains the many forces shaping the future of automotive innovation.
Unlike past periods of innovation in the industry, the coming years will be particularly interesting because many of the changes will come from outside of the traditional workings of a car.
Automation and the shared economy will change how the entire commuting model works. Meanwhile, an increased penetration of EVs will have an impact well beyond the engine, as charging infrastructure needs to be added, battery supply chains need to be created, and as legacy auto parts become obsolete.
While these transitional changes take place, the auto market is expected to jump from $3.5 trillion (2015) to $6.7 trillion (2030) in total size – and a whopping 30% of the revenue will come from new services that don’t even exist today.
The ACES Framework
The future of automotive innovation will hinge on four major technologies: automation, connectivity, electric power, and the shared economy.
This can be simplified into the acronym “ACES”:
Perhaps the most obvious and fundamental change facing the auto sector is the rise of autonomous cars.
Not only does this technology have implications on major manufacturers and suppliers to the auto sector, but giving the cars the ability to self-drive will have an impact that extends well beyond it, as well.
The passenger economy, which will come from relieving people from the driver’s seat, is expected to be a $7 trillion industry alone by 2050.
New cars are already taking advantage of increased connectivity today, and it will soon be the norm even in lower-end vehicles. This added networking unlocks new features such as infotainment, enhanced safety features, and diagnostics and analytical tools.
In just seven years since its IPO, Tesla was able to leapfrog Ford in market valuation. Yet, this is still the very beginning of the EV revolution.
Many countries have announced regulations to curb gas or diesel fueled vehicles, and EVs are expected to hit 41 million global sales by 2040.
The shared economy is the result of technological factors, but also societal ones. However, when combined with automation, sharing presents a fundamental shift to how commuting and transportation will work in the future.
With autonomous and shared cars, current commuter inconveniences such as traffic and parking will be reduced considerably – and it’ll make catching a ride to your destination far cheaper, as well.
How Self-Driving Cars “See” the World
This video breaks down the complex technology allowing a new generation of self-driving cars to view the world around them.
How Self-Driving Cars “See” the World
Modern cars bear little resemblance to their early ancestors, but the basic action of steering a vehicle has always remained the same. Whether you’re behind the wheel of a Tesla or a vintage Model T, turning the wheel dictates the direction of movement. This simple premise, which places humans at the center of control, may be ripe for disruption as tech giants and car companies race toward a future that would render human-controlled vehicles obsolete.
How does this next generation of self-driving cars “see” the road? Today’s video from TED-Ed explains one of the mind-bending innovations making autonomous vehicles a reality.
Eye of the Laser
Safely getting a vehicle and its passengers from point A to B is no simple matter.
First, weather and time of day can create a wide variety of challenging situations, affecting things like visibility, braking distances, or speed. Next, other vehicles, bikes, and pedestrians are constantly moving through the transportation network, sometimes in unpredictable ways. To further complicate matters, the road network is rarely in optimum form. Road lines fade and construction can throw ambiguous detours into the mix.
Sensing and analyzing the world at a granular level is crucial in making self-driving cars a viable transportation option. To solve this problem, new generations of autonomous vehicles are using photonic integrated circuits, as well as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) to generate an extremely nuanced picture of the road ahead.
How self-driving cars see the world. (Source: Hesai)
LiDAR – which is related to RADAR – uses short laser pulses to sense the depth and shape of objects. Essentially, scattered bursts reflect off objects around the vehicle, painting a detailed 3D picture of its surroundings. LiDAR’s depth resolution is so accurate that it could eventually see details at the millimeter scale.
A Dissenting Opinion
While most companies in the autonomous vehicle space have fully embraced LiDAR, Tesla has a divergent point of view. The company employs a combination of GPS, cameras, and other sensors to help its cars visualize the world.
LiDAR is a fool’s errand. Anyone relying on LiDAR is doomed.
– Elon Musk
Society and Self-Driving Cars
While companies like Uber and Waymo determine the functional mechanics of self-driving cars, the rest of society is left to ponder how this new technology will affect employment, privacy, and personal autonomy.
In the U.S., more than 70% of goods are moved by truck, and over 80% of commuters take a private vehicle to work on any given day. Even partial automation of the nation’s transportation network will have wide-sweeping impacts on the economy.
As AI-powered cars and trucks hit the streets at scale, how cars see the road will be a detail most of us will overlook. The bigger question will be whether we are ready for a society where we’re no longer in the driver’s seat.
Ranked: The Autonomous Vehicle Readiness of 20 Countries
This interactive visual shows the countries best prepared for the shift to autonomous vehicles, as well as the associated societal and economic impacts.
For the past decade, manufacturers and governments all over the world have been preparing for the adoption of self-driving cars—with the promise of transformative economic development.
As autonomous vehicles become more of a looming certainty, what will be the wider impacts of this monumental transition?
Which Countries are Ready?
Today’s interactive visual from Aquinov Mathappan ranks countries on their preparedness to adopt self-driving cars, while also exploring the range of challenges they will face in achieving complete automation.
The Five Levels of Automation
The graphic above uses the Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index, which details the five levels of automation. Level 0 vehicles place the responsibility for all menial tasks with the driver, including steering, braking, and acceleration. In contrast, level 5 vehicles demand nothing of the driver and can operate entirely without their presence.
Today, most cars sit between levels 1 and 3, typically with few or limited automated functions. There are some exceptions to the rule, such as certain Tesla models and Google’s Waymo. Both feature a full range of self-driving capabilities—enabling the car to steer, accelerate and brake on behalf of the driver.
The Journey to Personal Driving Freedom
There are three main challenges that come with achieving a fully-automated level 5 status:
- Data Storage
Effectively storing data and translating it into actionable insights is difficult when 4TB of raw data is generated every day—the equivalent of the data generated by 3,000 internet users in 24 hours.
- Data Transportation
Autonomous vehicles need to communicate with each other and transport data with the use of consistently high-speed internet, highlighting the need for large-scale adoption of 5G.
- Verifying Deep Neural Networks
The safety of these vehicles will be dictated by their ability to distinguish between a vehicle and a person, but they currently rely on algorithms which are not yet fully understood.
Which Countries are Leading the Charge?
The 20 countries were selected for the report based on economic size, and their automation progress was ranked using four key metrics: technology and innovation, infrastructure, policy and legislation, and consumer acceptance.
The United States leads the way on technology and innovation, with 163 company headquarters, and more than 50% of cities currently preparing their streets for self-driving vehicles. The Netherlands and Singapore rank in the top three for infrastructure, legislation, and consumer acceptance. Singapore is currently testing a fleet of autonomous buses created by Volvo, which will join the existing public transit fleet in 2022.
India, Mexico, and Russia lag behind on all fronts—despite enthusiasm for self-driving cars, these countries require legislative changes and improvements in the existing quality of roads. Mexico also lacks industrial activity and clear regulations around autonomous vehicles, but close proximity to the U.S. has already garnered interest from companies like Intel for manufacturing autonomous vehicles south of the border.
How Autonomous Vehicles Impact the Economy
Once successfully adopted, autonomous vehicles will save the U.S. economy $1.3 trillion per year, which will come from a variety of sources including:
- $563 billion: Reduction in accidents
- $422 billion: Productivity gains
- $158 billion: Decline in fuel costs
- $138 billion: Fuel savings from congestion avoidance
- $11 billion: Improved traffic flow and reduction of energy use
Transportation will be safer, potentially reducing the number of accidents over time. Insurance companies are already rolling out usage-based insurance policies (UBIs), which charge customers based on how many miles they drive and how safe their driving habits are.
Long distance traveling in autonomous vehicles provides a painless alternative to train and air travel. The vehicles are designed for comfort, making it possible to sleep overnight easily—which could also impact the hotel industry significantly.
- Real Estate
An increase in effortless travel could lead to increased urban sprawl, as people prioritize the convenience of proximity to city centers less and less.
With the adoption of autonomous vehicles projected to reduce private car ownership in the U.S. to 43% by 2030, it’s disrupting many other industries in the process.
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