These Charts Put the Historic U.S. Job Losses in Perspective
When recessions hit, it’s not unusual to see millions of jobs lost.
Such episodes are a regular part of the business cycle and when they occur, most businesses do their best to tough things out. Then, as time progresses, it gradually becomes clear that spending must be curtailed, budget cuts must be made, and workers must unfortunately be sent home.
This economic process normally takes months, or even years, to unwind.
But, the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown a wrench into the economic status quo, creating a situation that is incomparable to any previous downturn. Instead of a gradual economic transition to slower growth prospects, business operations have suddenly screeched to a halt with no clear window to resume.
The Great Lockdown of the economy has been completely unprecedented, both in terms of the speed of the shutdown and its impact on jobs.
As a result, the statistics being released are completely surreal. Perhaps the best example of this is number for initial jobless claims in the U.S., which tops 22 million over the last four weeks.
Worst U.S. Job Losses on Record (Four Week Period)
|Year||Description||Peak Jobless claims (4-wk total)||% of U.S. Population|
|1980||Fed tightening (Volcker)||2.52 million||1.1%|
|1982||Double-dip recession||2.70 million||1.2%|
|1991||Early 1990s recession||2.00 million||0.8%|
|2001||Dotcom Bust||1.96 million||0.7%|
|2009||Great Recession||2.64 million||0.9%|
|2020||The Great Lockdown||22.03 million||6.7%|
As you can see above, the number is 10x higher than many of the worst four-week job losses on record, so historical comparisons don’t come close.
In other words, if you were using recent recessions as a potential barometer of how bad things could get for jobless claims, the numbers coming from COVID-19 crisis just blew up your model.
The Recession Time Machine
To get further context on the numbers above, it’s worth jumping in a time machine to revisit what happened to job numbers in previous recessions:
- Stagflation and Oil Shocks (1973-75)
This recession put an end to the Post WWII global economic expansion, and was characterized by the 1973 oil embargo, the aftermath of the Nixon Shock, and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of international finance. Unemployment and inflation were both high (stagflation), and the unemployment rate in the U.S. reached 9.0% in May 1975.
- The Double-Dip Recession (1980, 1981-1982)
This “W-shaped” recession saw economic contraction first in 1980, only to return again in 1981. This corresponded with the Iranian Revolution, as well as Fed chair Paul Volcker’s aggressive policy to rein in inflation with high interest rates. Unemployment peaked at 10.8% in 1982 — the highest rate seen since the Great Depression.
- The Great Recession (2009)
The most recent recession in memory peaked with 10.0% in unemployment in October 2009. It took until 2016 for unemployment to fall back to pre-recession levels.
Finally, it’s worth noting that during the Great Depression (1929-1933), unemployment reached a historic high of 24.9%. To get to a comparable equivalent in modern times, there would need to be 41 million Americans out of work permanently.
Room for Optimism
Although the initial jobless claims are staggering and clearly without modern precedent, there is a case to be made for cautious optimism.
Many of the aforementioned recessions took months or years to culminate, with peak job losses occurring at the tail end of each recession. The current crisis, now being called “The Great Lockdown”, caused many businesses to shut doors suddenly and against their will. It also corresponded with unexpected closures of national borders and the halting of regular trade activity around the world.
When and if normal economic activity resumes, it’ll be interesting to see how much of the damage is temporary.
Editor’s note: While we show the figure for peak unemployment during the Great Depression in both the chart and article, there is no comparable number available for weekly jobless claims. According to Federal Reserve data, it appears that the weekly data series on initial jobless claims started in the 1960s.
How Total Spend by U.S. Advertisers Has Changed, Over 20 Years
This graphic visualizes the fluctuations in advertising spend in the U.S., along with its brutal decline of 13% as a result of COVID-19.
Total Spend by U.S. Advertisers, Over 20 Years
With an advertising economy worth $239 billion in 2019, it’s safe to say that the U.S. is home to some of the biggest advertising spenders on the planet.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the major upheaval of advertising spend, and it is unlikely to recover for some time.
The graphic above uses data from Ad Age’s Leading National Advertisers 2020 which measures U.S. advertising spend each year, and ranks 100 national advertisers by their total spend in 2019.
Let’s take a look at the brands with the biggest budgets.
2019’s Biggest Advertising Spenders
Much of the top 10 biggest advertising spenders are in the telecommunications industry, but it is retail giant Amazon that tops the list with an advertising spend of almost $7 billion.
In fact, Amazon spent an eye-watering $21,000 per minute on advertising and promotion in 2019, making them undeniably the largest advertising spender in America.
Explore the 100 biggest advertisers in 2019 below:
|Rank||Company||Total U.S. Ad Spend 2019||Industry|
|#4||Procter & Gamble||$4.3B||Consumer Goods|
|#9||American Express||$3.0B||Financial Services|
|#11||JPMorgan Chase||$2.8B||Financial Services|
|#16||Nestlé||$2.3B||Food & Beverages|
|#18||Expedia Group||$2.2B||Travel & Hospitality|
|#19||Capital One Financial||$2.2B||Financial Services|
|#20||Fiat Chrysler Automobiles||$2.0B||Automotive|
|#24||PepsiCo||$1.7B||Food & Beverages|
|#25||Bank of America||$1.7B||Financial Services|
|#28||McDonald’s||$1.6B||Food & Beverages|
|#29||Booking Holdings||$1.6B||Travel & Hospitality|
|#31||Johnson & Johnson||$1.5B||Pharmaceuticals|
|#32||Anheuser-Busch InBev||$1.5B||Food & Beverages|
|#34||Merck & Co.||$1.5B||Logistics|
|#44||Wells Fargo||$1.1B||Financial Services|
|#45||Yum Brands||$1.1B||Food & Beverages|
|#51||Diageo||$918M||Food & Beverages|
|#53||Discover Financial Services||$883M||Financial Services|
|#54||Mars||$880M||Food & Beverages|
|#58||Molson Coors||$822M||Food & Beverages|
|#61||Coca-Cola||$816M||Food & Beverages|
|#64||Kraft Heinz||$782M||Food & Beverages|
|#70||Constellation Brands||$749M||Food & Beverages|
|#80||Marriott International||$667M||Travel & Hospitality|
|#89||Reckitt Benckiser||$593M||Consumer Goods|
|#90||Keurig Dr Pepper||$593M||Food & Beverages|
|#91||Restaurant Brands International||$589M||Food & Beverages|
|#92||Inspire Brands||$589M||Food & Beverages|
The report offers several ways of looking at this data—for example, when looking at highest spend by medium, Procter & Gamble comes out on top for traditional media spend like broadcast and cable TV.
On the digital front, Expedia Group is the biggest spender on desktop search, while Amazon tops the list for internet display ads.
The Rise and Fall of Advertising Spend
Interestingly, changes in advertising spend tend to fall closely in step with broader economic growth. In fact, for every 1% increase in U.S. GDP, there is a 4.4% rise of advertising that occurs in tandem.
The same phenomenon can be seen among the biggest advertising spenders in the country. Since 2000, spend has seen both promising growth, and drastic declines. Unsurprisingly, the Great Recession resulted in the largest drop in spend ever recorded, and now it looks as though history may be repeating itself.
Total advertising spend in the U.S. is estimated this year to see a brutal decline of almost 13% and is unlikely to return to previous levels for a number of years.
The COVID-19 Gut Punch
To say that the global COVID-19 pandemic has impacted consumer behavior would be an understatement, and perhaps the most notable change is how they now consume content.
With more people staying safe indoors, there is less need for traditional media formats such as out-of-home advertising. As a result, online media is taking its place, as an increase in spend for this format shows.
But despite marketers trying to optimize their media strategy or stripping back their budget entirely, many governments across the world are ramping up their spend on advertising to promote public health messages—or in the case of the U.S., to canvass.
The Saving Grace?
Even though advertising spend is expected to nosedive by almost 13% in 2020, this figure excludes political advertising. When taking that into account, the decline becomes a slightly more manageable 7.6%
Moreover, according to industry research firm Kantar, advertising spend for the 2020 U.S. election is estimated to reach $7 billion—the same as Amazon’s 2019 spend—making it the most expensive election of all time.
Can political advertising be the key to the advertising industry bouncing back again?
Visualized: A Breakdown of Amazon’s Revenue Model
Here’s a look at the different parts of Amazon’s revenue model, and how much money each business segment makes.
Visualized: A Breakdown of Amazon’s Revenue Model
Amazon has evolved into more than just an online store. While ecommerce makes up a significant portion of the company’s overall sales, its diverse revenue model generates billions through various business segments.
This visualization provides an overview of the different parts that make up Amazon, showing each business unit’s net sales from June 2019 to 2020.
A Diverse Revenue Model
With a market cap of $1.7 trillion, Amazon is currently the most valuable retailer in the world. The company is expected to account for 4.6% of total U.S. retail sales by the end of 2020—but the tech giant is more than just a one-trick pony.
A key factor in the company’s success is its diversification into other areas. Here’s a breakdown of Amazon’s revenue mix:
|Business Segment||Net Sales (June 2019 - 2020)|
|Online stores||$163 B|
|Third-party selling services||$63 B|
|Amazon Web Services||$40 B|
|Subscription services||$22 B|
|Physical stores||$17 B|
|Total Revenue||$322 billion|
While Amazon is truly more than an online store, it’s worth noting that online sales account for a significant amount of the company’s overall revenue mix. Over the period of June 2019 to 2020, product sales from Amazon’s website generated $163 billion, which is more than the company’s other business units combined.
A significant day for online sales is Prime Day, which has grown into a major shopping event comparable to Black Friday and Cyber Monday. In 2020, Prime Day is projected to generate almost $10 billion in global revenue.
While ecommerce makes up a large portion of Amazon’s overall sales, there are many other segments that each generate billions in revenue to create immense value for the tech giant. For instance, enabling third-party sellers on the platform is the company’s second-largest unit in terms of net sales, racking up $63 billion over the course of a year.
This segment has shown tremendous growth over the last two decades. In 2018, it accounted for 58% of gross merchandise sales on Amazon, compared to just 3% in 2000. While third-party sellers technically outsold Amazon itself, the company still makes money through commission and shipping fees.
Amazon is Not Alone: Diversification is Common
Amazon isn’t the only major tech company to benefit from diverse revenue streams.
Other tech giants generate revenue through a range of products, services, and applications—for instance, while a healthy portion of Apple’s revenue comes from iPhone sales, the company captures 17% of revenue from a mix of services, ranging from Apple Pay to Apple Music. Microsoft is another example of this, considering it owns a wide range of hardware, cloud services, and platforms.
While there are several reasons to build a diverse business portfolio, a key benefit that comes from diversification is having a buffer against market crashes. This has proven to be particularly important in 2020, given the economic devastation caused by the global pandemic.
The Sum of its Parts
Despite varying levels of sales, each business unit brings unique value to Amazon.
For instance, while Amazon Web Services (AWS) falls behind online sales and third-party sellers in net sales, it’s one of the most profitable segments of the company. In the fourth quarter of 2019, more than half of Amazon’s operating income came from AWS.
In short, when looking at the many segments of Amazon, one thing is clear—the company is truly the sum of its parts.
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