Energy
The Bull Case for Energy Metals Going into 2019
The Bull Case for Every Energy Metal Going into 2019
The rapid emergence of the world’s renewable energy sector is helping set the stage for a commodity boom.
While oil has traditionally been the most interesting commodity to investors in the past, the green energy sector is reliant on the unique electrical and physical properties of many different metals to work optimally.
To build more renewable capacity and to store that energy efficiently, we will need to increase the available supply for these specific raw materials, or face higher costs for each material.
Metal Bull Cases
Ahead of Cambridge House’s annual Vancouver Resource Investment Conference on January 20-21, 2019, we thought it would be prudent to highlight the “bull case” for relevant metals as we start the year.
It’s important to recognize that the commodity market is often cyclical and dependent on a multitude of factors, and that the above cases are not meant to be predictive in any sense.
In other words, the facts and arguments above sum up what we think investors may see as the most compelling stories for these metals – but what actually happens in the market, especially in the short-term, may be different.
Overarching Trends
While we highlight 12 minerals ranging from copper to lithium, most of the raw materials in the infographic fit into four overarching, big-picture stories that will drive the future of green energy:
Story | Supporting Projection |
---|---|
Solar and Wind | The world hit 1 TW of wind and solar generation capacity in 2018. The second TW will be up and running by 2023, and will cost 46% less than the first. |
Electric Vehicles | Ownership of electric vehicles will increase by 40x in the next 13 years, reaching 125 million vehicles in 2030. |
Energy Storage | The global market for energy storage is rapidly growing, and will leap from $194 billion to $296 billion between 2017-2024. |
Nuclear | 150 nuclear reactors with a total gross capacity of about 160,000 MW are on order or planned, and about 300 more are proposed – mostly in Asia. |
Which of these stories has the most potential as a catalyst for driving the entire sector?
Based on these narratives, and the individual bull cases above, which metal has the most individual potential?
Let us know in the comments below, or visit Booth #1228 at #VRIC19.
Energy
How Much Does the U.S. Depend on Russian Uranium?
Currently, Russia is the largest foreign supplier of nuclear power fuel to the U.S.
How Much Does the U.S. Depend on Russian Uranium?
This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email.
The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a ban on imports of Russian uranium. The bill must pass the Senate before becoming law.
In this graphic, we visualize how much the U.S. relies on Russian uranium, based on data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).
U.S. Suppliers of Enriched Uranium
After Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian-produced oil and gas—yet Russian-enriched uranium is still being imported.
Currently, Russia is the largest foreign supplier of nuclear power fuel to the United States. In 2022, Russia supplied almost a quarter of the enriched uranium used to fuel America’s fleet of more than 90 commercial reactors.
Country of enrichment service | SWU | % |
---|---|---|
🇺🇸 United States | 3,876 | 27.34% |
🇷🇺 Russia | 3,409 | 24.04% |
🇩🇪 Germany | 1,763 | 12.40% |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 1,593 | 11.23% |
🇳🇱 Netherlands | 1,303 | 9.20% |
Other | 2,232 | 15.79% |
Total | 14,176 | 100% |
SWU stands for “Separative Work Unit” in the uranium industry. It is a measure of the amount of work required to separate isotopes of uranium during the enrichment process. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Most of the remaining uranium is imported from European countries, while another portion is produced by a British-Dutch-German consortium operating in the United States called Urenco.
Similarly, nearly a dozen countries around the world depend on Russia for more than half of their enriched uranium—and many of them are NATO-allied members and allies of Ukraine.
In 2023 alone, the U.S. nuclear industry paid over $800 million to Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, and its fuel subsidiaries.
It is important to note that 19% of electricity in the U.S. is powered by nuclear plants.
The dependency on Russian fuels dates back to the 1990s when the United States turned away from its own enrichment capabilities in favor of using down-blended stocks of Soviet-era weapons-grade uranium.
As part of the new uranium-ban bill, the Biden administration plans to allocate $2.2 billion for the expansion of uranium enrichment facilities in the United States.
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