Black Swan Risks Heading into 2016 [Chart]
SocGen’s latest evaluation still sees steep downside risk to market
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
Société Générale has come out with their most recent list of what the bank considers to be potential “black swans” to the market.
France’s third largest bank publishes this list as part of their Global Economic Outlook. As several users have pointed out in the past, we are indeed aware that black swans are by nature unlikely and extremely difficult to predict. We agree with this, but we do find SocGen’s list a useful way of understanding some of the upcoming risks in the market that could sway investor sentiment and opinion.
In the latest edition of the report, which was published this week, the bank still sees an excess of potential downside risks to the global economy. The greatest of these risks, slated at only a 10% probability but with maximum impact potential, is a new global recession. The report mentions as well that a hard landing in China could have similar effects.
Downside risks and their probability:
- 45% – Great Britain leaves the EU (Impact: low)
- 30% – China’s economy has a hard landing (Impact: high)
- 25% – U.S. consumers save more than expected (Impact: medium)
- 10% – Fed hikes too late (Impact: medium to high)
- 10% – New global recession (Impact: high)
Upside risks and their probability:
- 20% – Stronger investment and trade (Impact: medium to high)
- 15% – More fiscal accommodation (Impact: medium)
- 10% – Fast track reform (Impact: low)
One risk that could be added to the mix is some sort of a deflationary spiral. These are words that no central banker wants to hear, but signs of deflation are popping up all over the market. For example, as we showed in a recent chart, nearly all commodities got hammered over 2015.
The impact of such a spiral would be catastrophic, and the Fed has limited means to combat such an event. That said, it is tough to discern whether deflation will continue to be found sprinkled benignly throughout the economy, or if it could somehow snowball into the full-on death spiral.
Black swan indeed.
Visualizing Major Layoffs At U.S. Corporations
This infographic highlights the accelerating pace of layoffs so far in 2022, as businesses cut costs ahead of a potential recession.
Visualizing Major Layoffs at U.S. Corporations
Hiring freezes and layoffs are becoming more common in 2022, as U.S. businesses look to slash costs ahead of a possible recession.
Understandably, this has a lot of people worried. In June 2022, Insight Global found that 78% of American workers fear they will lose their job in the next recession. Additionally, 56% said they aren’t financially prepared, and 54% said they would take a pay cut to avoid being laid off.
In this infographic, we’ve visualized major layoffs announced in 2022 by publicly-traded U.S. corporations.
Note: Due to gaps in reporting, as well as the very large number of U.S. corporations, this list may not be comprehensive.
An Emerging Trend
Layoffs have surged considerably since April of this year. See the table below for high-profile instances of mass layoffs.
|JP Morgan Chase & Co.||Financial Services||~500||June|
Here’s a brief rundown of these layoffs, sorted by industry.
Ford has announced the biggest round of layoffs this year, totalling roughly 8,000 salaried employees. Many of these jobs are in Ford’s legacy combustion engine business. According to CEO Jim Farley, these cuts are necessary to fund the company’s transition to EVs.
We absolutely have too many people in some places, no doubt about it.
– Jim Farley, CEO, Ford
Speaking of EVs, Rivian laid off 840 employees in July, amounting to 6% of its total workforce. The EV startup pointed to inflation, rising interest rates, and increasing commodity prices as factors. The firm’s more established competitor, Tesla, cut 200 jobs from its autopilot division in the month prior.
Last but not least is online used car retailer, Carvana, which cut 2,500 jobs in May. The company experienced rapid growth during the pandemic, but has since fallen out of grace. Year-to-date, the company’s shares are down more than 80%.
Fearing an impending recession, Coinbase has shed 1,100 employees, or 18% of its total workforce. Interestingly, Coinbase does not have a physical headquarters, meaning the entire company operates remotely.
A recession could lead to another crypto winter, and could last for an extended period. In past crypto winters, trading revenue declined significantly.
Brian Armstrong, CEO, Coinbase
Around the same time, JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced it would fire hundreds of home-lending employees. While an exact number isn’t available, we’ve estimated this to be around 500 jobs, based on the original Bloomberg article. Wells Fargo, another major U.S. bank, has also cut 197 jobs from its home mortgage division.
The primary reason for these cuts is rising mortgage rates, which are negatively impacting the demand for homes.
Within tech, Meta and Twitter are two of the most high profile companies to begin making layoffs. In Meta’s case, 350 custodial staff have been let go due to reduced usage of the company’s offices.
Many more cuts are expected, however, as Facebook recently reported its first revenue decline in 10 years. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has made it clear he expects the company to do more with fewer resources, and managers have been encouraged to report “low performers” for “failing the company”.
Realistically, there are probably a bunch of people at the company who shouldn’t be here.
– Mark Zuckerberg, CEO, Meta
Also in July, Twitter laid off 30% of its talent acquisition team. An exact number was not available, but the team was estimated to have less than 100 employees. The company has also enacted a hiring freeze as it stumbles through a botched acquisition by Elon Musk.
More Layoffs to Come…
Layoffs are expected to continue throughout the rest of this year, as metrics like consumer sentiment enter a decline. Rising interest rates, which make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, are also having a negative impact on growth.
In fact just a few days ago, trading platform Robinhood announced it was letting go 23% of its staff. After accounting for its previous layoffs in April (9% of the workforce), it’s fair to estimate that this latest round will impact nearly 800 people.
Which Countries Produce the Most Wheat?
Global wheat production is concentrated in just a handful of countries. Here’s a look at the top wheat-producing countries worldwide.
Visualizing Global Wheat Production by Country (2000-2020)
Wheat is a dietary staple for millions of people around the world.
After rice and corn (maize), wheat is the third most-produced cereal worldwide, and the second-most-produced for human consumption. And considering wheat’s importance in the global food system, any impact on major producers such as droughts, wars, or other events, can impact the entire world.
Which countries are the largest producers of wheat? This graphic by Kashish Rastogi visualizes the breakdown of 20 years of global wheat production by country.
Top 10 Wheat Producing Countries
While more than 80 different countries produce wheat around the world, the majority of global wheat production comes from just a handful of countries, according to data from The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Here’s a look at the top 10 wheat-producing countries worldwide, based on total yield in tonnes from 2000-2020:
|Rank||Country||Continent||Total yield (tonnes, 2000-2020)||% of total (2000-2020)|
|#1||🇨🇳 China||Asia & Oceania||2.4 B||17.0%|
|#2||🇮🇳 India||Asia & Oceania||1.8 B||12.5%|
|#3||🇷🇺 Russia||Asia & Oceania||1.2 B||8.4%|
|#4||🇺🇸 U.S.||Americas||1.2 B||8.4%|
|#5||🇫🇷 France||Europe||767 M||5.4%|
|#6||🇨🇦 Canada||Americas||571 M||4.0%|
|#7||🇩🇪 Germany||Europe||491 M||3.5%|
|#8||🇵🇰 Pakistan||Asia & Oceania||482 M||3.4%|
|#9||🇦🇺 Australia||Asia & Oceania||456 M||3.2%|
|#10||🇺🇦 Ukraine||Europe||433 M||3.1%|
China, the world’s largest wheat producer, has yielded more than 2.4 billion tonnes of wheat over the last two decades, making up roughly 17% of total production from 2000-2020.
A majority of China’s wheat is used domestically to help meet the country’s rising food demand. China is the world’s largest consumer of wheat—in 2020/2021, the country accounted for approximately 19% of global wheat consumption.
The second-largest wheat-producing country is India. Over the last two decades, India has produced 12.5% of the world’s wheat. Like China, India keeps most of its wheat domestic because of significant food demand across the country.
Russia, the world’s third-largest wheat producer, is also the largest global exporter of wheat. The country exported more than $7.3 billion worth of wheat in 2021, accounting for approximately 13.1% of total wheat exports that year.
Russia-Ukraine Impact on Global Wheat Market
Because Russia and Ukraine are both significant global wheat producers, the ongoing conflict between the two countries has caused massive disruptions to the global wheat market.
The conflict has had an impact on adjacent industries as well. For instance, Russia is one of the world’s major fertilizer suppliers, and the conflict has led to a global fertilizer shortage which could lead to food shortages worldwide.
Markets4 weeks ago
The $100 Trillion Global Economy in One Chart
Demographics3 weeks ago
Ranked: The 20 Countries With the Fastest Declining Populations
Investor Education4 weeks ago
Countries with the Highest Default Risk in 2022
Misc5 days ago
Visualizing Which Countries Drink the Most Beer
Energy2 weeks ago
Visualizing the World’s Largest Oil Producers
Personal Finance1 week ago
Mapped: The Salary You Need to Buy a Home in 50 U.S. Cities
Energy5 days ago
Which Countries Produce the Most Natural Gas?
Agriculture3 weeks ago
Timeline: The Domestication of Animals