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Black Swan Risks Heading into 2016 [Chart]

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Black Swan Risks Heading into 2016 [Chart]

Black Swan Risks Heading into 2016 [Chart]

SocGen’s latest evaluation still sees steep downside risk to market

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Société Générale has come out with their most recent list of what the bank considers to be potential “black swans” to the market.

France’s third largest bank publishes this list as part of their Global Economic Outlook. As several users have pointed out in the past, we are indeed aware that black swans are by nature unlikely and extremely difficult to predict. We agree with this, but we do find SocGen’s list a useful way of understanding some of the upcoming risks in the market that could sway investor sentiment and opinion.

In the latest edition of the report, which was published this week, the bank still sees an excess of potential downside risks to the global economy. The greatest of these risks, slated at only a 10% probability but with maximum impact potential, is a new global recession. The report mentions as well that a hard landing in China could have similar effects.

Downside risks and their probability:

  • 45% – Great Britain leaves the EU (Impact: low)
  • 30% – China’s economy has a hard landing (Impact: high)
  • 25% – U.S. consumers save more than expected (Impact: medium)
  • 10% – Fed hikes too late (Impact: medium to high)
  • 10% – New global recession (Impact: high)

Upside risks and their probability:

  • 20% – Stronger investment and trade (Impact: medium to high)
  • 15% – More fiscal accommodation (Impact: medium)
  • 10% – Fast track reform (Impact: low)

One risk that could be added to the mix is some sort of a deflationary spiral. These are words that no central banker wants to hear, but signs of deflation are popping up all over the market. For example, as we showed in a recent chart, nearly all commodities got hammered over 2015.

The impact of such a spiral would be catastrophic, and the Fed has limited means to combat such an event. That said, it is tough to discern whether deflation will continue to be found sprinkled benignly throughout the economy, or if it could somehow snowball into the full-on death spiral.

Black swan indeed.

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Banks

Visualizing the Importance of Trust to the Banking Industry

In the digital age, the issue of trust is emerging as the game-changing factor in how consumers choose financial services brands.

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Visualizing the Importance of Trust to the Banking Industry

In the digital age, money is becoming less tangible.

Not only is carrying physical cash more of a rarity, but we are now able to even make contactless payments for many of the products and services we use on the fly.

Our financial transactions are starting to be analyzed and optimized by artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, investments and bills are paid online, and even checks can now be deposited through our phones. Who has the time to visit a physical bank these days, anyways?

Trust in the Digital Age

The migration of financial services to the cloud is increasing access to banking solutions, while breaking down barriers of entry to the industry. It’s also creating opportunities for new service offerings that can leverage technology, data, and scale.

However, as today’s infographic from Raconteur shows, this digital migration has a crucial side effect: trust in financial services has emerged as a dominant driver of consumer activity.

This likely boils down to a couple major factors:

  • Tangibility
    Financial services are becoming less grounded in physical experiences (using cash, visiting a branch, personal relationships, etc.)
  • Personal Data
    Consumers are rightfully concerned about how personal data gets treated in the digital age

Further, the above factors are compounded by memories of the 2008 Financial Crisis. These events not only damaged institutional reputations, but they elevated trust to become a key concern and selling point for consumers.

Trust, by the Numbers

In general, trust in banks has been slowly on the rise since hitting a low point in 2011 and 2012.

At the same time, consumers are consistently ranking trust as a more important factor in their decision of where to bank. To the modern consumer, trust even outweighs price.

Top Five Factors for Choosing a Bank:

  1. Ease and convenience of service (47%)
  2. Trust with the brand (45%)
  3. Price/rate (43%)
  4. Service resolution quality and timeliness (43%)
  5. Wide network coverage of ATMs (40%)

It’s important to recognize here that all five of the above factors rank quite closely in percentage terms. That said, while they are all crucial elements to a service offering, trust may be the most abstract one to try and tackle for companies in the space.

With this in mind, how can financial services leverage tech to increase the amount of trust that consumers have in them?

Tech Factors That Would Increase Consumer Trust:

  1. Reliable fraud protection (36%)
  2. Technology solves my problems (13%)
  3. Useful mobile application (9%)

Better fraud protection capability stands out as one major trust-builder, while designing technology that is useful and effective is another key area to consider.

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Visualizing the Future of Banking Talent

Banking talent is undergoing a fundamental shift. This infographic explores how banks are adapting to rapid automation and digitization in the industry.

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Visualizing the Future of Banking Talent

View the full-size version of the infographic by clicking here

Many organizations say that their greatest asset is their people. In fact, Richard Branson has famously stated that employees come first at Virgin, ranking ahead of customers and shareholders. So, how do businesses effectively manage this talent to drive success?

This question is top of mind for many bank CEOs. As processes become increasingly automated and digitized, the composition of banking talent is changing – and banks will need to become adept at hitting a moving target.

Six Ways Banks are Becoming Talent-First

Today’s infographic comes from McKinsey & Company, and it explores six ways banks are becoming talent-first organizations:

1. They understand future talent requirements.

43% of all bank working hours can be automated with current technologies.

Consequently, talent requirements are shifting from basic cognitive skills to socio-emotional and technological skills. Banks will need to analyze where they have long-term gaps and develop a plan to close them.

2. They identify critical roles and manage talent accordingly.

It is estimated that just 50 key roles drive 80% of bank business value. Banks will need to identify these roles based on data rather than traditional hierarchy. In fact, 90% of critical talent is missed when organizations only focus at the top.

Then, banks must match the best performers to these roles and actively manage their development.

3. They adopt an agile business model.

Banks will need to shift from a hierarchical structure to an agile one, where leadership enables networks of teams to achieve their missions. As opportunities come and go, teams are reallocated accordingly.

This flexible structure has many potential benefits, including fewer product defects, lower costs, shorter time-to-market, increases in customer satisfaction, and a bump in employee engagement.

4. They use data to make people decisions.

Instead of making decisions based on subjective biases or customary practices, banks will need to rely on the power of data to:

  • Recruit
  • Retain
  • Motivate
  • Promote

For example, company data can be used to develop a heatmap of the roles with the highest attrition rates. Leaders can then focus their retention efforts accordingly.

5. They focus on inclusion and diversity.

Gender and ethnicity diversification leads to higher financial performance, better decision making, higher employee satisfaction, and an enhanced company image.

Industry-leading banks will set measurable diversity goals, and re-evaluate all processes to expose unconscious biases. For example, one organization saw 15% more women pass resume screening when they automated the process.

6. They ensure the board is focused on talent.

Only 5% of corporate directors believe they are effective at developing talent.

To be successful, boards will need to recognize Human Resources (HR) as a strategic partner rather than as a primarily transactional function. The CEO, CFO, and CHRO (Chief Human Resources Officer) form a group of three that makes major decisions on human and financial capital allocation.

CEOs worldwide see human capital as a top challenge, and yet they rank HR as only the eighth or ninth most important function in a business. Clearly, this is a disconnect that needs to be addressed. To keep up with rapid change, banks will need to bring HR to the forefront – or risk being left behind.

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