Markets
$20 Trillion of U.S. Debt Visualized Using Stacks of $100 Bills
For most people, our experiences in everyday life are with using lower numbers like one, two, or ten. We not only comprehend what it means to buy five apples, but we can also visualize exactly what that might look like. In other words, these are numbers that fall within a range that is very intuitive for most humans.
Extrapolate that a little higher and we can still comprehend the numbers, but we start to lose that intuition.
Are there 1,500 or 2,000 people at a music venue? It’s hard to know for sure, but we do at least have a basic comprehension of the sizes of those numbers. Every day, we do math with numbers in the thousands – a paycheck, a credit card bill, or paying rent.
Millions, billions, trillions
This is where things start to get dodgy. Once numbers get beyond the millions, we don’t really have any intuition, tactile familiarity, or comprehension of what they mean.
For example:
- One million seconds = 12 days
- One billion seconds = 32 years
- One trillion seconds = 32,000 years
Going back in time a trillion seconds would place you well before written history, the building of the pyramids, and 10,000 years before the first cave wall paintings in France.
Our monkey brains don’t really know what to do with these giant abstractions, and so it helps to think about them in different ways, especially visually.
The Visual Interpretation
Looking at visual representations of these numbers will help to put them in perspective.
Below is a series of fantastic 3d graphics produced by Demonocracy.info that help to do this for the $20 trillion in U.S. Federal Government debt. It starts with a $100 bill, and goes from there. Enjoy!
1. Here is a single $100 bill.
2. Here is $10,000, or 100 of those same bills in a stack.
3. $1 million, or equal to 92 years of work for the average human on Earth.
4. $100 million on a pallet. The couch is worth a cool $46.7 million, too.
5. $1 Billion – getting bigger…
6. $1 trillion, looking at it from a front angle.
7. Here’s a better view of the $1 trillion with the White House.
8. Finally, here’s $20+ trillion of U.S. government debt.
For more on putting the U.S. debt in perspective, here’s a video showing Trump’s $20 trillion problem, as well as visualizing the debt from a more 2d perspective.
Markets
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.
We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.
Disinflation vs. Deflation
The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.
| Time Period | March 1980-July 1983 | June 2022-April 2023* |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation at Start of Cycle | 14.8% | 9.1% |
| Inflation at End of Cycle | 2.5% | 4.9% |
* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.
A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?
Looking to History
There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.
With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.
Equity Issuance
Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.
| Year | Deal Value |
|---|---|
| 1980 | $2.6B |
| 1981 | $5.0B |
| 1982 | $3.6B |
| 1983 | $13.5B |
| 1984 | $2.5B |
| 1985 | $12.0B |
| 1986 | $24.2B |
| 1987 | $24.9B |
| 1988 | $16.9B |
| 1989 | $12.9B |
| 1990 | $13.4B |
| 1991 | $45.2B |
| 1992 | $50.3B |
| 1993 | $95.3B |
| 1994 | $63.7B |
| 1995 | $79.7B |
| 1996 | $108.7B |
| 1997 | $106.5B |
| 1998 | $97.0B |
| 1999 | $142.8B |
| 2000 | $156.5B |
Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.
Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.
Debt Issuance
Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.
| Year | Deal Value | Interest Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | $4.5B | 11.4% |
| 1981 | $6.7B | 13.9% |
| 1982 | $14.5B | 13.0% |
| 1983 | $8.1B | 11.1% |
| 1984 | $25.7B | 12.5% |
| 1985 | $46.4B | 10.6% |
| 1986 | $47.1B | 7.7% |
| 1987 | $26.4B | 8.4% |
| 1988 | $24.7B | 8.9% |
| 1989 | $29.9B | 8.5% |
| 1990 | $40.2B | 8.6% |
| 1991 | $41.6B | 7.9% |
| 1992 | $50.0B | 7.0% |
| 1993 | $487.8B | 5.9% |
| 1994 | $526.4B | 7.1% |
| 1995 | $632.7B | 6.6% |
| 1996 | $906.0B | 6.4% |
| 1997 | $1.3T | 6.4% |
| 1998 | $1.8T | 5.3% |
| 1999 | $1.8T | 5.7% |
| 2000 | $2.8T | 6.0% |
Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.
As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.
It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.
Then vs. Now
Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.
Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.
| January 1981 | April 2023* | |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Annual | 11.8% | 4.9% |
| Inflation Expectations Next 12 Months | 9.5% | 4.5% |
| Interest Rate 10-Yr Treasury Yield | 12.6% | 3.7% |
| Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| Nominal Wage Growth Annual, Seasonally Adjusted | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| After-Tax Corporate Profits As Share of Gross Value Added | 9.1% | 13.8% |
* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.
The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.
What to Consider During Disinflation
Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.
- High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
- High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
- Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.
In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.
Learn more about working with Citizens.
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