Markets
Chart: Where is Global Growth Happening?
Chart: Where is Global Growth Happening?
China and U.S. still generating >50% of Real GDP growth
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
According to forecasts from earlier this year by the World Bank, the global economy is expected to average a Real GDP growth rate of 2.8% between 2017-2019.
But where will this growth actually happen? Is it in giant countries that are growing at a stable 2% clip, or is it occurring in the smaller emerging markets where 8% growth is not uncommon?
Today’s chart looks at individual countries between 2017-2019, based on their individual growth projections from the World Bank, to see where new wealth is being created.
China Still Tops
Even though growth has slowed in China somewhat, the World Bank still estimates its economy to expand at a 6.5% clip this year, and 6.3% in both 2018 and 2019.
Add these numbers onto the world’s second biggest economy (and the biggest in PPP terms), and you have an incredible amount of growth. In fact, about 35.2% of global GDP growth will come from China over this period of time, putting the country’s economic output $2.3 trillion higher.
Uncertainty in the U.S.
While the U.S. is also expected to contribute a significant portion of global growth, the World Bank had a fairly ominous caveat to their projections over coming years.
The U.S. forecasts do not incorporate the effect of policy proposals by the new U.S. administration, as their overall scope and ultimate form are still uncertain.
– World Bank, Global Outlook Summary
That said, the World Bank does also mention that the tax cuts proposed by the Trump administration could theoretically bump up U.S. and global growth if implemented. However, with all of the chaos in the current U.S. political environment, the tax cuts have been delayed for now – and some analysts are scaling back the chances of them even happening at all.
Other Growth Hotbeds
Beyond the usual suspects of China, India, the Eurozone, and the U.S., it is interesting to see Indonesia as the next biggest bright spot using this type of analysis.
In fact, the world’s fourth most populous nation will account for 2.5% of global GDP growth over the aforementioned time period, adding another $160 billion to its $941 billion GDP. The World Bank projects growth for the country at 5.3% this year, and 5.5% for the next two years.
The other countries that registered as providing 1% or more of global growth?
They include: South Korea (2.0%), Australia (1.8%), Canada (1.7%), UK (1.6%), Japan (1.5%), Brazil (1.2%), Turkey (1.2%), Mexico (1.2%), Russia (1.0%), and Iran (1.0%).
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Correction: A previous version of the chart was incorrectly labeled “EU”. That portion of the tree map has been updated to Euro Zone.
Markets
Mapped: 2023 Inflation Forecasts by Country
Inflation surged on a global scale in 2022, hitting record-level highs in many countries. Could it finally subside in 2023?

Mapped: 2023 Inflation Forecasts by Country
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Inflation surged on a global scale in 2022, hitting record-level highs in many countries. Could it finally subside in 2023?
In the above infographic, we look to answer that question using the World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Not Yet Out of the Woods
While the IMF predicts that global inflation peaked in late 2022, rates in 2023 are expected to remain higher than usual in many parts of the world. Following the 8.8% global inflation rate in 2022, the IMF forecasts a 6.6% rate for 2023 and 4.3% rate for 2024 based on their most recent January 2023 update.
For the optimists, the good news is that the double-digit inflation that characterized nearly half the world in 2022 is expected to be less prevalent this year. For the pessimists, on the other hand, looking at countries like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Turkey, and Poland may suggest that we are far from out of the woods on a global scale.
Here are the countries with the highest forecasted inflation rates in 2023.
Country / Region | Projected Annual Inflation % Change 2023 |
---|---|
๐ฟ๐ผ Zimbabwe | 204.6% |
๐ป๐ช Venezuela | 195.0% |
๐ธ๐ฉ Sudan | 76.9% |
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina | 76.1% |
๐น๐ท Turkiye | 51.2% |
๐ฎ๐ท Islamic Republic of Iran | 40.0% |
๐ฑ๐ฐ Sri Lanka | 29.5% |
๐ช๐น Ethiopia | 28.6% |
๐ธ๐ท Suriname | 27.2% |
๐ธ๐ฑ Sierra Leone | 26.8% |
๐ธ๐ธ South Sudan | 21.7% |
๐ญ๐น Haiti | 21.2% |
๐ฌ๐ญ Ghana | 20.9% |
๐ต๐ฐ Pakistan | 19.9% |
๐ณ๐ฌ Nigeria | 17.3% |
๐พ๐ช Yemen | 17.1% |
๐ฒ๐ผ Malawi | 16.5% |
๐ต๐ฑ Poland | 14.3% |
๐ฒ๐ฉ Moldova | 13.8% |
๐ฒ๐ฒ Myanmar | 13.3% |
๐ญ๐บ Hungary | 13.3% |
๐ง๐พ Belarus | 13.1% |
๐ฐ๐ฌ Kyrgyz Republic | 12.4% |
๐ฌ๐ณ Guinea | 12.2% |
๐ฒ๐ณ Mongolia | 12.2% |
๐ช๐ฌ Egypt | 12.0% |
๐ฆ๐ด Angola | 11.8% |
๐ฐ๐ฟ Kazakhstan | 11.3% |
๐ธ๐น Sรฃo Tomรฉ and Prรญncipe | 11.2% |
๐ท๐ด Romania | 11.0% |
๐บ๐ฟ Uzbekistan | 10.8% |
๐ฆ๐ฟ Azerbaijan | 10.8% |
๐น๐ฒ Turkmenistan | 10.5% |
๐ธ๐ฐ Slovak Republic | 10.1% |
๐จ๐ฌ Democratic Republic of the Congo | 9.8% |
๐ฟ๐ฒ Zambia | 9.6% |
๐ช๐ช Estonia | 9.5% |
๐ฒ๐ช Montenegro | 9.2% |
๐ง๐ฉ Bangladesh | 9.1% |
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom | 9.0% |
While the above countries fight to sustain their purchasing power, some parts of the world are expected to continue faring exceptionally well against the backdrop of a widespread cost-of-living crisis. Many Asian countries, notably Japan, Taiwan, and China, are all predicted to see inflation lower than 3% in the upcoming year.
When it comes to low inflation, Japan in particular stands out. With strict price controls, negative interest rates, and an aging population, the country is expected to see an inflation rate of just 1.4% in 2023.
Inflation Drivers
While rising food and energy prices accounted for much of the inflation we saw in 2022, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook highlights that core inflation, which excludes food, energy, transport and housing prices, is now also a major driving factor in high inflation rates around the world.
What makes up core inflation exactly? In this case, it would include things like supply chain cost pressures and the effects of high energy prices slowly trickling down into numerous industries and trends in the labor market, such as the availability of jobs and rising wages. As these macroeconomic factors play out throughout 2023, each can have an effect on inflation.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are also still at play in this yearโs inflation forecasts. While the latter mainly played out in China in 2022, the possible resurgence of new variants continues to threaten economic recovery worldwide, and the war persists in leaving a mark internationally.
The confluence of macroeconomic factors currently at play is unlike what weโve seen in a long time. Though the expertise of forecasters can give us a general understanding, how they will actually play out is for us to wait and see.
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