Mining

Volatile Returns: Commodity Investing Through Miners and Explorers

Published

3 years ago

October 27, 2020

Nicholas LePan

Volatile Returns: Commodity Investing Through Miners and Explorers

Volatile Returns: Commodity Investing Through Miners

Investors consider gold and silver as safe haven investments. But the companies that produce gold and silver often offer volatile returns, creating opportunities for astute investors.

Volatility is a double-edged sword, particularly when it comes to commodity investing. During the good times, it can create skyrocketing returns. But during bad times, it can turn ugly.

Today’s infographic comes to us from Prospector Portal, and shows how investing in precious metals equities can outperform or underperform the broader metals market.

Capitalizing on Volatility: Timing Matters

Just like most investments, timing matters with commodities.

Due to the complex production processes of commodities, unexpected demand shocks are met with slower supply responses. This, along with other factors, creates commodity supercycles—extended periods of upswings and downswings in prices.

Investors must time their investments to take advantage of this volatility, and there are multiple ways to do so.

Three Ways to Invest in Commodities

There are three primary routes investors can take when it comes to investing in commodities.

Investment Method	Benefits	Limitations
Direct physical investment	Purest form of exposure Intrinsic value of a commodity and physical possession	High transaction costs (buying, shipping, transport) Costs of physical storage limit the quantity and returns
Commodity futures	Commodity investment without the need for storage Diversification benefits and inflation hedge	Complex and frequent transactions Risk of contango—when futures contracts are more expensive than the underlying commodity
Commodity-related equities	Exposure to prices without storage or transaction limitations Opportunity to benefit from commodity prices and company performance	Returns depend on the company’s valuation Companies may mitigate risk by producing multiple commodities—reducing leverage to prices

Among these, commodity-related equities offer by far the most leverage to changes in prices. Let’s dive into how investors can use this leverage to their advantage with volatile metal prices.

The Fundamentals of Investing in Mining Equities

When it comes to commodity investing, targeting miners and mineral exploration companies presents fundamental benefits and drawbacks.

As metal prices rise, the performance of mining companies improves in several ways—while in deteriorating conditions, they do the opposite:

Category	Rising Commodity Prices	Falling Commodity Prices
Outlook	- Improved outlook	- Deteriorated outlook
Stock Price Movement	- Equity growth	- Equity decline
Dividend Payouts	- Increased dividends	- Decreased dividends
Financial Performance	- Increased earnings	- Decreased earnings

With the right timing, these ups and downs can create explosive opportunities.

Mining companies, especially explorers, use these price swings to their advantage and often produce market-beating returns during an upswing.

But how?

The Proof: How Mining Equities React to Metal Prices

Not only do price increases translate into higher profits for mining companies, but they can also change the outlook and value of exploration companies. As a result, investing in exploration companies can be a great way to gain exposure to changing prices.

That said, these types of companies can generate greater equity returns over a shorter period of time when prices are high, but they can also turn dramatically negative when prices are low.

Below, we compare how producers and exploration companies with a NI-43-101 compliant resource perform during bull and bear markets for precious metals.

All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise stated.

Mining Company	Company Stage	Primary Metal Produced	Market Cap. Oct 31, 2019	Market Cap. July 29, 2020	Bull Market Performance (Nov. 1, 2019-July 29, 2020)	Bear Market Performance (Jan 02 – Dec 31, 2018)
Banyan Gold	Exploration/ Development	Gold	$6M	$40M	500%	-44%
Renforth Resources	Exploration	Gold	$8M	$10M	11%	-10%
Auryn Resources	Exploration	Gold, Copper	$181M	$330M	60%	-39%
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.	Production	Gold	$1,104M	$1,885M	68%	110%
Monarch Gold	Exploration/ Development	Gold	$57M	$148M	139%	-23%
Red Pine Exploration	Exploration	Gold	$13M	$22M	29%	-55%
Revival Gold Inc.	Exploration/ Development	Gold	$27M	$74M	113%	5%
Erdene Resource Development	Exploration/ Development	Gold	$36M	$111M	222%	-56%
Endeavor Mining Corp.	Production	Gold	$2,622M	$5,874M	54%	-13%
Yamana Gold Inc	Production	Gold	$4,572M	$8,279M	87%	-22%

During the bear market period, the price of gold declined by 2.66%, and despite engaging in exploration activity, most companies saw a slump in their share prices.

In particular, exploration companies, or juniors, took a heavier hit, with returns averaging -31.66%. But even during a bear market, a discovery can make all the difference—as was the case for producer Wesdome Gold Mines, generating a 109.95% return over 2018.

Average returns for gold producers including Wesdome: 24.83%
Average returns for gold producers excluding Wesdome: -17.65%

During the bull market period for gold, gold mining companies outperformed the price of gold, with juniors offering the highest equity returns averaging 153.43%. Gold producers outperformed the commodity market, the value of their equities increased 69.61%—less than half of that of exploration companies.

Silver: Bears vs Bulls

Similar to gold mining companies, performances of silver producers and explorers reflected the volatility in silver prices:

Company	Company Stage	Primary Metal Produced	Market Cap. Oct 31, 2019	Market Cap. July 29, 2020	Bull Market Performance (Nov. 1, 2019-July 29, 2020)	Bear Market Performance (Jan 02 – Dec 31, 2018)
Silvercrest Metals	Exploration	Silver	$694M	$1,449M	78%	117%
Pan American Silver	Production	Silver	$2,973M	$10,550M	125%	1%
Golden Minerals	Exploration	Silver	$30M	$80M	80%	-42%
Americas Gold and Silver	Production	Silver	$335M	$482M	10%	-56%
Dolly Varden Silver Corp.	Exploration	Silver	$28M	$74M	152%	-32%
Endeavour Silver	Production	Silver, Gold	$458M	$837M	72%	-10%

During the bear market period for silver, its price decreased by 9.8%. Explorers and producers both saw a dip in their share prices, with the equity of silver producers decreasing by 21.63%.

However, the discovery of a high-quality silver deposit again made the difference for SilverCrest Metals, which generated a 116.85% return over the year.

Average returns for silver exploration companies including SilverCrest: 8.32%
Average returns for silver exploration companies excluding SilverCrest: -27.86%

On the other hand, during the bull market period, the price of silver increased by 34.33%. Silver exploration companies surpassed the performance of the price of silver.

Average returns for silver producers: 69.04%
Average returns for silver exploration companies: 95.36%

The potential to generate massive returns and losses is evident in both cases for gold and silver.

The Investment Potential of Exploration

Mining equities tend to outperform underlying commodity prices during bull markets, while underperforming during bear markets.

For mining exploration companies, these effects are even more pronounced—exploration companies are high-risk but can offer high-reward when it comes to commodity investing.

To reap the rewards of volatile returns, you have to know the risks and catch the market at the right time.

Related Topics:silver investing gold commodity

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Strategic Metals

The Critical Minerals to China, EU, and U.S. National Security

Ten materials, including cobalt, lithium, graphite, and rare earths, are deemed critical by all three.

Published

1 day ago

November 30, 2023

Bruno Venditti

The Critical Minerals to China, EU, and U.S. Security

This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email every week.

Governments formulate lists of critical minerals according to their industrial requirements and strategic evaluations of supply risks.

Over the last decade, minerals like nickel, copper, and lithium have been on these lists and deemed essential for clean technologies like EV batteries and solar and wind power.

This graphic uses IRENA and the U.S. Department of Energy data to identify which minerals are essential to China, the United States, and the European Union.

What are Critical Minerals?

There is no universally accepted definition of critical minerals. Countries and regions maintain lists that mirror current technology requirements and supply and demand dynamics, among other factors.

These lists are also constantly changing. For example, the EU’s first critical minerals list in 2011 featured only 14 raw materials. In contrast, the 2023 version identified 34 raw materials as critical.

One thing countries share, however, is the concern that a lack of minerals could slow down the energy transition.

The Critical Minerals to China, EU, and U.S. Security

With most countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the total mineral demand from clean energy technologies is expected to double by 2040.

U.S. and EU Seek to Reduce Import Reliance on Critical Minerals

Ten materials feature on critical material lists of both the U.S., the EU, and China, including cobalt, lithium, graphite, and rare earths.

Mineral / Considered Critical	🇺🇸 U.S.	🇪🇺 EU	🇨🇳 China
Aluminum/ bauxite	Yes	Yes	Yes
Antimony	Yes	Yes	Yes
Cobalt	Yes	Yes	Yes
Copper	Yes	Yes	Yes
Fluorspar	Yes	Yes	Yes
Graphite	Yes	Yes	Yes
Lithium	Yes	Yes	Yes
Nickel	Yes	Yes	Yes
Rare earths	Yes	Yes	Yes
Tungsten	Yes	Yes	Yes
Arsenic	Yes	Yes	No
Barite	Yes	Yes	No
Beryllium	Yes	Yes	No
Bismuth	Yes	Yes	No
Germanium	Yes	Yes	No
Hafnium	Yes	Yes	No
Magnesium	Yes	Yes	No
Manganese	Yes	Yes	No
Niobium	Yes	Yes	No
Platinum	Yes	Yes	No
Tantalum	Yes	Yes	No
Titanium	Yes	Yes	No
Vanadium	Yes	Yes	No
Tin	Yes	No	Yes
Zirconium	Yes	No	Yes
Phosphorus	No	Yes	Yes
Cesium	Yes	No	No
Chromium	Yes	No	No
Indium	Yes	No	No
Rubidium	Yes	No	No
Samarium	Yes	No	No
Tellurium	Yes	No	No
Zinc	Yes	No	No
Boron	No	Yes	No
Coking Coal	No	Yes	No
Feldspar	No	Yes	No
Gallium	No	Yes	No
Helium	No	Yes	No
Phosphate Rock	No	Yes	No
Scandium	No	Yes	No
Silicon	No	Yes	No
Strontium	No	Yes	No
Gold	No	No	Yes
Iron ore	No	No	Yes
Molybdenum	No	No	Yes
Potash	No	No	Yes
Uranium	No	No	Yes

Despite having most of the same materials found in the U.S. or China’s list, the European list is the only one to include phosphate rock. The region has limited phosphate resources (only produced in Finland) and largely depends on imports of the material essential for manufacturing fertilizers.

Coking coal is also only on the EU list. The material is used in the manufacture of pig iron and steel. Production is currently dominated by China (58%), followed by Australia (17%), Russia (7%), and the U.S. (7%).

The U.S. has also sought to reduce its reliance on imports. Today, the country is 100% import-dependent on manganese and graphite and 76% on cobalt.

After decades of sourcing materials from other countries, the U.S. local production of raw materials has become extremely limited. For instance, there is only one operating nickel mine (primary) in the country, the Eagle Mine in Michigan. Likewise, the country only hosts one lithium source in Nevada, the Silver Peak Mine.

China’s Dominance

Despite being the world’s biggest carbon polluter, China is the largest producer of most of the world’s critical minerals for the green revolution.

China produces 60% of all rare earth elements used as components in high-technology devices, including smartphones and computers. The country also has a 13% share of the lithium production market. In addition, it refines around 35% of the world’s nickel, 58% of lithium, and 70% of cobalt.

Among some of the unique materials on China’s list is gold. Although gold is used on a smaller scale in technology, China has sought gold for economic and geopolitical factors, mainly to diversify its foreign exchange reserves, which rely heavily on the U.S. dollar.

Analysts estimate China has bought a record 400 tonnes of gold in recent years.

China has also slated uranium as a critical mineral. The Chinese government has stated it intends to become self-sufficient in nuclear power plant capacity and fuel production for those plants.

According to the World Nuclear Association, China aims to produce one-third of its uranium domestically.