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Visualizing the Expanse of the ETF Universe

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The ETF Universe

Visualizing the Expanse of the ETF Universe

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Under the right circumstances, an innovation can scale and flourish.

Within the financial realm, there is perhaps no better example of this than the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a new financial technology that emerged out of the index investing phenomenon of the early 1990s.

Since the establishment of the first U.S. ETF in 1993, the financial instrument has gained broad traction — and today, the ETF universe has an astonishing $5.75 trillion in assets under management (AUM), covering almost every niche imaginable.

Navigating the ETF Universe

Today’s data visualization comes to us from iShares by BlackRock, and it visualizes the wide scope of assets covered by the ETF universe.

To start, let’s look at a macro breakdown of the “galaxies” that can be found in the universe:

Global ETFs (AUM, $USD)Share of Global Total
Equities$4.39 trillion76.4%
Bonds$1.12 trillion19.5%
Alternative$0.20 trillion3.5%
Money market$0.04 trillion0.6%
All ETFs$5.75 trillion100.00%

As you can see, equities are by far the largest galaxy in the ETF universe, making up 76.4% of all assets. These clusters likely comprise the ETFs you are most familiar with — for example, funds that track the S&P 500 index or foreign markets.

That said, it’s worth noting that the fastest expanding galaxy is bond ETFs, tracking indices related to the debt issued by governments and corporations. The first bond ETFs were introduced in 2002, and since then the category has grown into a market that exceeds $1 trillion in AUM. Bond ETFs are expected to surpass the $2 trillion mark by 2024.

Everything Under the Sun

While the sheer scale of the ETF universe is captivating, it’s the variety that shows you how ubiquitous the instrument has become.

Today, there are over 8,000 ETFs globally, covering nearly every asset class imaginable. Here are some of the lesser-known and more peculiar corners in the ETF universe:

Thematic ETFs: Gaining popularity in recent years, thematic ETFs are built around long-term trends such as climate change or rapid urbanization. By having more tangible focus points, these funds can also appeal to younger generations of investors.

Contrarian ETFs: In a healthy market, there can be a variety of different positions being taken by investors. Contrarian ETFs help to make this possible, allowing investors to bet against the “herd”.

Factor-based ETFs: This approach uses a rules-based system for selecting investments in the fund portfolio, based on factors typically associated with higher returns such as value, small-caps, momentum, low volatility, quality, or yield.

Global Macro ETFs: Some ETFs are designed to mimic strategies used by hedge fund managers. One example of such a strategy is global macro, which aims to analyze the macroeconomic environment, while taking corresponding long and short positions in various equity, fixed income, currency, commodities, and futures markets.

Commodity ETFs: There are ETFs that track gold or oil, sometimes even storing physical inventories. Interestingly, however, there are commodity ETFs for even more obscure metals and agricultural products, such as zinc, lean hogs, tin, or cocoa beans.

Whether your investments track popular market indices or you are more surgical about your portfolio exposure, the ETF universe is impressively vast — and it’s projected to keep expanding in size and diversity for years to come.

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Markets

How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing

History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.

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Chart showing U.S. Equity Issuance Deal Value from 1980-2000. Equity Issuance goes up over time, with the 300% increase in 1983 highlighted at the end of the disinflation period.
The following content is sponsored by Citizens Commercial Banking

How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing

The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.

We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.

Disinflation vs. Deflation

The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.

Time PeriodMarch 1980-July 1983June 2022-April 2023*
Inflation at Start of Cycle14.8%9.1%
Inflation at End of Cycle2.5%4.9%

* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.

A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.

How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?

Looking to History

There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.

With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.

Equity Issuance

Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.

YearDeal Value
1980$2.6B
1981$5.0B
1982$3.6B
1983$13.5B
1984$2.5B
1985$12.0B
1986$24.2B
1987$24.9B
1988$16.9B
1989$12.9B
1990$13.4B
1991$45.2B
1992$50.3B
1993$95.3B
1994$63.7B
1995$79.7B
1996$108.7B
1997$106.5B
1998$97.0B
1999$142.8B
2000$156.5B

Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.

Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.

Debt Issuance

Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.

YearDeal Value Interest Rate
1980$4.5B11.4%
1981$6.7B13.9%
1982$14.5B13.0%
1983$8.1B11.1%
1984$25.7B12.5%
1985$46.4B10.6%
1986$47.1B7.7%
1987$26.4B8.4%
1988$24.7B8.9%
1989$29.9B8.5%
1990$40.2B8.6%
1991$41.6B7.9%
1992$50.0B7.0%
1993$487.8B5.9%
1994$526.4B7.1%
1995$632.7B6.6%
1996$906.0B6.4%
1997$1.3T6.4%
1998$1.8T5.3%
1999$1.8T5.7%
2000$2.8T6.0%

Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.

As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.

It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.

Then vs. Now

Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.

Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.

January 1981April 2023*
Inflation Rate
Annual
11.8%4.9%
Inflation Expectations
Next 12 Months
9.5%4.5%
Interest Rate
10-Yr Treasury Yield
12.6%3.7%
Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
7.5%3.4%
Nominal Wage Growth
Annual, Seasonally Adjusted
9.3%5.0%
After-Tax Corporate Profits
As Share of Gross Value Added
9.1%13.8%

* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.

The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.

What to Consider During Disinflation

Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.

  • High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
  • High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
  • Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.

In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.

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