Animation: Visualizing Two Centuries of U.S. Immigration
America is a nation of immigrants, and though the country has seen a lot of new arrivals over the past two centuries, the rate of immigration has been far from steady.
War, famine, economic boom and bust, religious persecution, and government intervention have all caused wild swings in the rate of immigration from countries around the world.
Today’s striking animation, by Max Galka, is a great way to see changes in immigration over time. Inflows from specific countries rise and fall, and the top three countries of origin change numerous times over the years.
Below, is another way to look at the ebb and flow of American immigration since the early 1800s.
An important note. This data excludes forced migration (slavery) and illegal immigration.
Let’s look at the “waves” in more detail.
Wave one: The Old Immigration
From 1820 to 1870, over 7.5 million immigrants made their way over to the United States, effectively doubling the young country’s population in only half a decade.
Ireland, which was in the throes of the Potato Famine, saw half its population set sail for the U.S. during that time. This wave of immigration can still be seen in today’s demographics. There are now more Irish-Americans than there are Irish nationals.
The magnetic pull of the New World was profoundly felt in Germany as well. Growing public unrest in the region, caused by heavy taxation and political censorship, culminated in the German revolutions of 1848-49. Faced with severe hardship at home, millions of Germans made their way to America over the 1800s. It’s estimated that one-third of the total ethnic German population in the world now lives in the United States.
Wave Two: Gold Rush
Much of America’s early immigration was from various points in Europe, but there was one prominent exception: China.
The discovery of gold in California inspired Chinese workers to seek their fortune in America. After a crop failure in Southern China in 1852, tens of thousands of Chinese immigrants flooded into San Francisco.
Although the State of California was making millions of dollars off its Foreign Miners Tax, sentiment towards Chinese workers began to sour. Gold mines were being tapped out and white Californians blamed the Chinese for driving wages down.
Chinamen are getting to be altogether too plentiful in this country.
– John Bigler, Governor of California (1852-1856)
By 1882, the newly enacted the Chinese Exclusion Act had a chilling effect on Chinese immigration. The Exclusion Act has the dubious distinction of being the only American law barring a specific group from immigrating to the United States.
Wave Three: The New Immigration
The wave of immigration leading into the 20th century is referred to as The New Immigration.
In 1890, Ellis Island was designated as the main point of entry for newcomers entering the United States. In 1907 alone, Ellis Island processed a staggering 1,285,349 immigrants. To put this number in perspective, if all of those people settled in one place, they would’ve formed America’s fourth largest city almost overnight.
This massive influx of people into New York had profound implications on the city itself. In 1910, Manhattan’s population density was an astronomical 101,548 humans per square mile.
The immigrants arriving during this period – heavily represented by Italians, Hungarians, and Russians – were seeking religious freedom and economic opportunity. Certain industries, such as steel, meat-packing, and mining, were staffed by many new arrivals to the country.
During this time, one in four American workers were foreign-born.
The Great Depression
The National Origins Act’s quota system, which took effect in 1929, essentially slammed the door on most immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe. Shortly after, the Great Depression further put a damper on immigration that would last well into the 20th century.
Wave Four: Mexico
After decades of sluggish immigration, the United States’ percentage of foreign-born citizens reached a low of 4.7% in 1970. But that was all about to change.
During the next decade, the number of states where Mexico was the top country of origin doubled in a single decade, and Mexicans became the dominant foreign-born population in the country. This migration was fueled by the Latin American debt crisis and later by NAFTA. The influx of cheap corn into Mexico caused hundreds of thousands of Mexicans from rural areas to search for more favorable economic opportunities. America was the obvious choice, particularly during the economic expansion of the 1990s.
This wave of immigration has shifted the country’s demographics considerably. Today, nearly one in five people in the United States are Hispanic.
Immigration trends are continually evolving, and America’s newest immigrants are often more likely to come from China or India. In fact, both countries surpassed Mexico as countries of origin for immigrants arriving in the U.S. in 2013. Today, the trend is even more pronounced.
Recent immigration numbers indicate that Asian immigrants will continue to shift America’s demographics in a new direction. Perhaps a new wave in the making?
An Investing Megatrend: How Emerging Wealth is Shaping the Future
Emerging markets are ascending on the global stage and wielding more economic power—and it’s drastically altering the investment landscape.
Globalisation is a rising tide that lifts all boats.
In an increasingly connected world, countries are engaging with global markets more than ever before. As a result, global wealth is shifting towards emerging markets. This megatrend—a global trend with sustained impacts—is profoundly influencing everyday life, society, and business.
Shifting Economic Power
Today’s infographic from iShares by BlackRock explains how emerging markets are classified, along with which countries are growing the fastest—and how investors can follow the money.
What Is An Emerging Market?
Every economy goes through five distinct stages of growth:
- Traditional Society: Based on primary industries, such as subsistence farming.
- The Pre-Conditions of Take-off: Spread of technology creates a more productive agricultural economy.
- Take-off: Industrialisation begins, and technological breakthroughs occur.
- Drive to Maturity: More complex manufacturing, and large-scale infrastructure investment takes place.
- Age of Mass Consumption: Urban society and a tertiary industry dominate, as disposable income grows.
Emerging markets fall into the transitory stages between ‘Take-off’ and ‘Drive to maturity’ as their economies modernise. Today, such countries offer lots of promise, but also come with a range of challenges:
- Pro: Greater return potential, growing middle class, increasing consumption
- Risk: Political instability, lack of infrastructure, lack of market access
Between 2000–2018, emerging markets’ share of global wealth has more than doubled from 10% to 24%. China is a major player in this transformation.
China’s Economic Might
China’s impressive trajectory from agricultural economy to global superpower cannot be ignored. The nation is on track to overtake the U.S. in terms of gross domestic product (GDP, nominal) by the year 2030.
|Year||🇨🇳 China GDP||🇺🇸 U.S. GDP|
China’s enormous growth has a ripple effect on its GDP composition. A more affluent middle class is buying higher-priced discretionary goods—such as cars and electronics—boosting the country’s domestic consumption.
Investors must keep an eye out for other emerging markets that are emulating China’s example.
One Piece Of the Puzzle
China is just one case study—several other economies are also making strides on the world stage. Each country brings unique advantages, but also barriers to overcome.
|Country||Real GDP Growth (2019E)||Strengths||Weaknesses|
|🇮🇳 India||7.4%||✔ Rapidly growing economy|
✔ Vast working-age population
|✘ Red tape
✘ Lack of infrastructure
|🇨🇳 China||6.2%||✔ Good infrastructure |
✔ High R&D spending
|✘ Ageing population
✘ High debt
|🇮🇩 Indonesia||5.1%||✔ Cheap labour|
✔ Diversifying economy
|✘Wide income gap
✘ Lack of infrastructure
|🇲🇽 Mexico||2.5%||✔ Integrated with global economy|
✔ Cheap and qualified labour
|✘ Political unrest
✘ Reliant on U.S. ties
|🇧🇷 Brazil||2.4%||✔ Diversifying economy|
✔ Strategic location
|✘ High production costs
|🇳🇬 Nigeria||2.3%||✔ High FDI|
✔ Diversifying economy
|✘ Political unrest
✘ Lack of infrastructure
|🇷🇺 Russia||1.8%||✔ Natural resources|
✔ Educated workforce
|✘ Political unrest
✘ Lack of FDI
|🇹🇷 Turkey||0.4%||✔ Cheap labour|
✔ Strategic location
|✘ Political unrest
✘ Red tape
Source: Global Finance Magazine
With these major emerging markets in mind, how can investors tap into the global wealth shift?
Where Are the Opportunities?
There are several avenues for an investor to play into this megatrend: structural solutions, consumer goods, and international investment.
Emerging markets are increasingly gaining access to technology. Growth in connectivity is closely linked with improved productivity, and many countries are ripe for a surge in online users.
However, much can still be done to speed up technological adoption, such as boosting 3G/4G network volume and coverage, and lowering the cost of data and smartphones to be more economical.
By helping solve some of these structural constraints through technological innovation, investors can tap into the economic growth of emerging markets.
As disposable income increases, a sizeable middle class will seek out products that elevate the quality of life. In India, domestic consumption is estimated to hit $6 trillion by 2023—four times its 2018 level.
The region’s spending will likely be propelled by higher-priced goods, as well as a wider variety of choices across food, transport, and fitness categories.
Global brands that plan to expand into emerging markets, or companies with a proven track record in these areas, are potential winners for investment.
Last but not least, investors can identify local winners in emerging wealth markets, through active or passive investing.
An active investment strategy would be to directly buy into individual company stocks, listed on a country’s stock exchange. Meanwhile, a passive investing strategy would be to seek out exchange-traded funds (ETFs) covering specific markets, and/or sectors within emerging markets. Many of these are also listed on major exchanges.
Diversifying either or both strategies across two or more countries can help mitigate risk. Investors can also choose index funds that broadly encompass all emerging markets.
As countries climb the economic ladder, the emerging wealth shift continues to gain momentum. By staying attuned to these macro changes, investors may unlock long-term growth from emerging markets.
The Global Inequality Gap, and How It’s Changed Over 200 Years
This visualization shows the global inequality gap — a difference in the standards of living around the world, as well as how it’s changed over 200 years.
How the Global Inequality Gap Has Changed In 200 Years
What makes a person healthy, wealthy, and wise? The UN’s Human Development Index (HDI) measures this by one’s life expectancy, average income, and years of education.
However, the value of each metric varies greatly depending on where you live. Today’s data visualization from Max Roser at Our World in Data summarizes five basic dimensions of development across countries—and how our average standards of living have evolved since 1800.
Health: Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy
Child mortality rates and life expectancy at birth are telltale signs of a country’s overall standard of living, as they indicate a population’s ability to access healthcare services.
Iceland stood at the top of these ranks in 2017, with only a 0.21% mortality rate for children under five years old. On the other end of the spectrum, Somalia had the highest child mortality rate of 12.7%—over three times the current global average.
While there’s a stark contrast between the best and worst performing countries, it’s clear that even Somalia has made significant strides since 1800. At that time, the global average child mortality rate was a whopping 43%.
Lower child mortality is also tied to higher life expectancy. In 1800, the average life expectancy was that of today’s millennial—only 29 years old:
Today, the global average has shot up to 72.2 years, with areas like Japan exceeding this benchmark by more than a decade.
Education: Mean and Expected Years of Schooling
Education levels are measured in two distinct ways:
- Mean years: the average number of years a person aged 25+ receives in their lifetime
- Expected years: the total years a 2-year old child is likely to spend in school
In the 1800s, the mean and expected years of education were both less than a year—only 78 days to be precise. Low attendance rates occurred because children were expected to work during harvests, or contracted long-term illnesses that kept them at home.
Since then, education levels have drastically improved:
|Mean Years of Schooling||Expected Years of schooling|
|Global Average||8.4 years||12.7 years|
|Highest||Germany 🇩🇪: 14.1 years||Australia 🇦🇺: 22.9 years|
|Lowest||Burkina Faso 🇧🇫: 1.5 years||South Sudan 🇸🇸: 4.9 years|
Research shows that investing in education can greatly narrow the inequality gap. Just one additional year of school can:
- Raise a person’s income by up to 10%
- Raise average annual GDP growth by 0.37%
- Reduce the probability of motherhood by 7.3%
- Reduce the likelihood of child marriage by >5 percentage points
Education has a strong correlation with individual wealth, which cascades into national wealth. Not surprisingly, average income has ballooned significantly in two centuries as well.
Wealth: Average GDP Per Capita
Global inequality levels are the most stark when it comes to GDP per capita. While the U.S. stands at $54,225 per person in 2017, resource-rich Qatar brings in more than double this amount—an immense $116,936 per person.
The global average GDP per capita is $15,469, but inequality heavily skews the bottom end of these values. In the Central African Republic, GDP per capita is only $661 today—similar to the average income two hundred years ago.
A Virtuous Cycle
These measures of development clearly feed into one another. Rising life expectancies are an indication of a society’s growing access to healthcare options. Compounded with more years of education, especially for women, this has had a ripple effect on declining fertility rates, contributing to higher per capita incomes.
People largely agree on what goes into human well-being: life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge, leisure, happiness… If they have improved over time, that, I submit, is progress.
As technology accelerates the pace of change across these indicators, will the global inequality gap narrow more, or expand even wider?
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