TSX Venture Bear Market Now 1,000 Days and Counting [Chart]
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
Last week, our friends at Palisade Capital, a merchant bank, sent us over a chart breaking up the S&P/TSX Venture Index into its booms and busts since the beginning of 2002. The index, which broadly represents the thousands of companies listed on the TSX Venture exchange, has reached a new ominous milestone.
“The most recent bear market for the TSX Venture began on April 11, 2011 and has now passed 1,000 trading days in length,” said Sean Zubick, Co-founder and COO of Palisade Capital, “That’s more than all bear markets combined since the beginning of 2002.”
The most recent re-wiring of the index was in the aftermath of the Dotcom bubble. This makes it even accurate to say that the current bear market is longer than all other downturns combined in the entire history of the index as we know it.
All previous downturns have occurred over the course of 802 trading days. The current bear market? Now over 1,000 trading days.
The majority of the companies on the index are listed as being in the business of materials (38%) and energy (30%), and these sectors have been in unprecedented slumps. As we previously noted, there is a “miner problem” in that there is a swath of zombie companies that have $2.15 billion of negative working capital on their books.
This type of systematic trouble is not something that gets rectified overnight, and that’s part of the reason the market is in such a mess.
The World’s Gold and Silver Coin Production vs. Money Creation
In 2019, the value of global money creation was over 500 times higher than the world’s gold and silver coin production combined.
Global Gold & Silver Coin Production vs. Money Creation
Note: Data has been updated to correct a previous calculation error pertaining to Japanese Yen money supply.
Both precious metals and cash serve as safe haven assets, intended to limit losses during market turmoil. However, while modern currencies can be printed by central governments, precious metals derive value from their scarcity.
In this infographic from Texas Precious Metals, we compare the value of the world’s gold and silver coin production to global money creation.
Total Production Per Person, 2019
We calculated the value of global currency issuance in 2019 as well as precious metal coins minted, and divided by the global population to get total production per person.
Throughout, global money supply is a proxy based on the 5 largest reserve currencies: the U.S. dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, Sterling Pound, and Chinese Renminbi.
|2019 Production||Ounces||Dollar Value||Dollar Value Per Person|
|Global Gold Coins||7,204,982||$10.9B||$1.42|
|Global Silver Coins||97,900,000||$1.8B||$0.23|
|Global Money Supply||$4.3T||$556.33|
All numbers are in USD according to exchange rates as of December 31 2019. Gold and silver values are based on the 2019 year close price of $1,510.60 and $17.90 respectively.
The value of new global money supply was 390 times higher than the value of gold coins minted, and 2,400 times higher than silver coins minted.
Put another way, for each ounce of minted gold coin, the global money supply increased by more than $593,000.
Change in Annual Production, 2019 vs. 2010
Compared to the start of the decade, here’s how annual production levels have changed:
|Global Silver Coins (oz)||95,900,000||97,900,000||2.1%|
|Global Gold Coins (oz)||6,298,331||7,204,982||14.4%|
|Global Money Supply (USD)||$2,936,296,692,440||$4,268,993,639,926||45.4%|
Annual increases to global money supply have increased by half, far outpacing the change in the world’s gold and silver coin production.
Even more recently, how has production changed during the COVID-19 pandemic?
The COVID-19 Effect
In response to the global pandemic, central banks have enacted numerous measures to help support economies—including issuing new currency.
The global money supply increased by more than $6.8 trillion in the first half of 2020. In fact, the value of printed currency was 930 times higher than the value of minted gold coins over the same timeframe.
Investors may want to consider which asset is more vulnerable to inflation as they look to protect their portfolios.
Want to learn more? See the U.S. version of this graphic.
Visualizing U.S. Money Supply vs. Precious Metal Production in the COVID-19 Era
Amid trillions in COVID-19 stimulus, this graphic compares new U.S. dollars printed to U.S. precious metal coin production.
U.S. Precious Metal Coin Production in the COVID-19 Era
Gold and silver have played an important role in money throughout history. Unlike modern currencies, they can’t be created out of thin air and derive value from their scarcity.
In the COVID-19 era, this difference has become more prominent as countries print vast amounts of currency to support their suffering economies. This graphic from Texas Precious Metals highlights how the value of U.S. precious metal coin production compares to U.S. money creation.
Year to Date Production
In this infographic, we have calculated the value of money supply added as well as bullion minted, and divided it by the U.S. population to get total production per person. Here’s how the January-September 2020 data breaks down:
|Total (Ounces)||Dollar Value||Dollar Value Per Person|
|U.S. Gold Ounces||826,000||$1.6B||$4.79|
|U.S. Silver Ounces||22,261,500||$544M||$1.65|
|U.S. Money Supply||$3.4T||$10,250.16|
Gold and silver dollar values based on Oct 5, 2020 spot prices of $1,915.93 and $24.47 respectively.
The value of new U.S. money supply was more than 2,100 times higher than the value of new gold minted. Compared to minted silver, the value of new U.S. money supply was over 6,000 times higher.
Production Per Day, Per State Over Time
Here’s how production has changed on a per day, per state basis since 2010:
|2010||2020 YTD (Jan-Sep)||Min-Max Production, 2010-2019|
|Minted Gold Coins||78oz||61oz||12oz-78oz|
|Minted Silver Coins||1,945oz||1,631oz||899oz-2,633oz|
Year to date, U.S. precious metal coin production is within a normal historical range. If production were to continue at the current rate through December, gold would be above historical norms at 81 ounces and silver would be within the normal range at 2,175 ounces.
The issuance of U.S. dollars tells a different story. Over the last nine months, the U.S. has already added 400% more dollars to its money supply than it did in the entirety of 2019—and there’s still three months left to go in the year.
A Macroeconomic View
Of course, current economic conditions have been a catalyst for the ballooning money supply. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government has issued over $3 trillion in fiscal stimulus. In turn, the U.S. Federal Reserve has increased the money supply by $3.4 trillion from January to September 2020.
Put another way, for every ounce of gold created in 2020 there has been $4 million U.S. dollars added to the money supply.
The question for those looking for safe haven investments is: which of these will ultimately hold their value better?
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