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Electric Vehicle Prices Fall as Battery Technology Improves

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declining battery costs drive down the electric vehicles prices

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The Briefing

  • Declining electric vehicle (EV) battery costs are driving production costs down
  • At the battery pack price point of $100/kWh, electric vehicles will become as cheap to make as gas-powered cars

Electric Vehicle Prices Fall as EV Battery Tech Improves

Electric vehicles (EVs) only accounted for around 3.2% of global car sales in 2020—a figure that’s set to grow in the coming decade, largely due to falling EV battery costs.

With rising production and technological improvements, batteries are becoming cheaper to produce, making EVs increasingly competitive with gas-powered cars.

Wright’s Law is Right So Far

According to Wright’s Law, also known as the learning curve effect, lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery cell costs fall by 28% for every cumulative doubling of units produced.

Wright’s Law has accurately predicted the decline in battery costs and so far, reported battery prices have been in line with modeled forecasts. The battery pack is the most expensive part of an electric vehicle. Consequently, the sticker prices of EVs fall with declining battery costs.

By 2023, the cost of Li-ion batteries is expected to fall to around $100/kWh—the price point at which EVs are as cheap to make as gas-powered cars.

YearPrice of Toyota Camry ⛽️Price of a 350-mile Range EV 🔋
2019$24,000$50,000
2021$25,000$39,000
2023$26,000$26,000
2025$26,000$18,000

Figures represent the Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price (MSRP)

EVs are already cheaper to own and operate than comparable gas-powered cars due to savings from gas, maintenance, and resale value. Therefore, a reduction in retail electric vehicle prices may enable them to compete more directly with gas-powered cars.

According to ARK Invest, the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) of a 350-mile range EV will be on par with that of a like-for-like Toyota Camry in 2023. Furthermore, the price of a 350-mile range EV is projected to drop by 53% between 2021-2025—making it $8,000 cheaper than the Camry.

The Electric Catch Up

Electric vehicles are a key piece of the puzzle in the transition to clean energy. Hence, growing consumer awareness around climate change is a catalyst for the EV space.

However, as EV production increases, so does the need for various critical minerals, charging infrastructure, and more. Price is just one of the hurdles that EV manufacturers need to overcome on the road to mainstream EV adoption.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Ark Investment Management – Big Ideas 2021 Report

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Datastream

Charted: The Ukraine War Civilian Death Toll

Using data from the UN, this chart shows civilian death toll figures resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Ukraine war death toll

The Briefing

  • In total, since the war began in February there have been over 7,031 Ukrainian civilian deaths
  • Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons, such as missiles and heavy artillery

Charted: The Ukraine War Civilian Death Toll

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has wrought suffering and death on a mass scale, with many Russian attacks targeted at civilians.

We’ve created this visual using data from the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) to better understand how many civilians have died in Ukraine as a result of the war, as well as how many were injured and how many were children.

The Numbers

As of early December, it is reported that 7,031 people in Ukraine have died because of the war — 433 of them children. Another 11,327 have been injured, 827 of which are children. In total, this is over 18,000 people killed or injured.

The figures are difficult to verify due to differing reports coming out of both Russia and Ukraine. The UN OHCHR anticipates that the numbers could be even higher.

The State of the Conflict

The war began on February 24th, 2022 and less than a year in, millions of people have been displaced by the conflict, and thousands of civilians have been injured or killed.

According to the UN, most of the civilian deaths have been caused by wide-ranging explosives such as heavy artillery shelling, missiles, and air strikes, and have been concentrated in Donetsk and Luhansk and in other territory still held by Ukraine.

Additionally, new estimates from Kyiv report approximately 13,000 Ukrainian military or soldier deaths, which has yet to be confirmed by the army.

Where does this data come from?

Source: The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights monthly reports on civilian deaths in Ukraine.

Note: Data on deaths and injuries can vary wildly depending on the source.

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