The Death of Soda: 11 Slides on Why the Industry Has Gone Flat
When you think of the iconic American brands of the 20th century, names like Coca-Cola and Pepsi have to rank pretty highly on any list.
Both fizzy beverages became household names nearly 100 years ago and even butted heads in one of the most infamous and long-lasting marketing battles of all-time. In the process, both brands have sold billions of bottles of product, creating powerful foundations for their sprawling beverage empires of today.
While the soda industry has seen incredible global growth over the years, it seems all good things must come to an end.
Today’s slides on The Death of Soda come to us from Dynamic Wealth Research, and they show how new consumer preferences have left the soda industry flat, forcing its titans to scramble to recapture market share. We also see what is replacing sugary beverages, and the market potential behind some of these new segments.
1. U.S. Soda Consumption is at a 30-year low
Soda consumption in the U.S. has dropped from 50 gallons to 37.5 gallons per capita between 2000 and 2017. It’s now at a 30-year low.
2. Bottled water is taking over
For the first time in U.S. history, more bottled water is being sold than soda per person. It’s a fundamental shift in consumer habits – if you look at the graph, you can see that as recent as the mid-2000s, people drank twice as much soda per capita.
3. Calorie consumption is changing
Most of us are eating differently these days, but these changes are extremely evident when looking at calorie consumption of children. As you can see, sugar sweetened drinks are falling off the map in a big way.
4. People are drinking water, instead
What’s getting substituted for sugar sweetened drinks?
Water is a big one: it’s healthy, convenient, and natural – all things that appeal to today’s health-conscious consumers.
5. The water market is maturing
As the market matures, different segments an niches are being carved out. For example, water can be plain, sparkling, enhanced, or premium.
6. Consumers want more than plain water
Plain water can also be poured from a tap, so it’s not surprising that consumers want to see their water enhanced in some way. Many are also sensitive to price.
7. The bottled water market is worth billions
In 2017, the global bottled water market was worth $199 billion.
8. Soda brands are scrambling
Soda brands pushed their diet products, but this backfired as consumers became concerned about the impact of artificial sweeteners on their diets.
9. Coca-Cola is diversifying its business
In response to the death of soda, companies like Coca-Cola are adding brands to their portfolio that can compete in less traditional segments. Examples of these brands include everything from energy drinks to coconut water.
10. Big brands are buying up smaller companies
Big fish like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are gobbling up innovative beverage startups in order to compete in these new and emerging segments.
11. The trend is your friend
As the beverage industry continues to get turned upside down by the death of soda, it creates opportunities for savvy investors. The global bottled water market will reach an impressive $307 billion by 2021, and new segments will continue to emerge as consumers become even more health-conscious.
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.
We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.
Disinflation vs. Deflation
The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.
|Time Period||March 1980-July 1983||June 2022-April 2023*|
|Inflation at Start of Cycle||14.8%||9.1%|
|Inflation at End of Cycle||2.5%||4.9%|
* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.
A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?
Looking to History
There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.
With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.
Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.
Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.
Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.
Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.
|Year||Deal Value||Interest Rate|
Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.
As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.
It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.
Then vs. Now
Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.
Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.
|January 1981||April 2023*|
Next 12 Months
10-Yr Treasury Yield
|Nominal Wage Growth|
Annual, Seasonally Adjusted
|After-Tax Corporate Profits|
As Share of Gross Value Added
* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.
The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.
What to Consider During Disinflation
Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.
- High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
- High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
- Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.
In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.
Learn more about working with Citizens.
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