Demographics
Hunger Pandemic: The COVID-19 Effect on Global Food Insecurity
How COVID-19 Could Worsen Global Food Insecurity
While COVID-19 is dominating headlines, another kind of emergency is threatening the lives of millions of people around the world—food insecurity.
The two are very much intertwined, however. By the end of 2020, authorities estimate that upwards of 265 million people could be on the brink of starvation globally, almost double the current rate of crisis-level food insecurity.
Today’s visualizations use data from the fourth annual Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC 2020) to demonstrate the growing scale of the current situation, as well as its intense concentration in just 55 countries around the globe.
Global Overview
The report looks at the prevalence of acute food insecurity, which has severe impacts on lives, livelihoods, or both. How does the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) classify the different phases of acute food insecurity?
- Phase 1: Minimal/None
- Phase 2: Stressed
- Phase 3: Crisis
- Phase 4: Emergency
- Phase 5: Catastrophe/Famine
According to the IPC, urgent action must be taken to mitigate these effects from Phase 3 onwards. Already, 135 million people experience critical food insecurity (Phase 3 or higher). Here’s how that breaks down by country:
Country/ Territory | Total Population Analyzed (Millions) | Population in Crisis (Phase 3+, Millions) | Share of Analyzed Population in Crisis |
---|---|---|---|
Afghanistan¹ | 30.7 | 11.3 | 37% |
Angola¹ (24 communes in 3 provinces) | 0.9 | 0.6 | 62% |
Bangladesh (Cox's Bazar and host populations) | 3.5 | 1.3 | 37% |
Burkina Faso¹ | 21.4 | 1.2 | 6% |
Burundi | 11.5 | 0.2 | 2% |
Cabo Verde | 0.5 | 0.01 | 2% |
Cameroon¹ (7 regions) | 16.1 | 1.4 | 8% |
Central African Republic¹ (excluding Lobaye) | 4.4 | 1.8 | 41% |
Chad¹ | 14.3 | 0.6 | 4% |
Colombia¹ (Venezuelan migrants) | 1.6 | 0.9 | 55% |
Côte d'Ivoire | 19.8 | 0.06 | 0% |
Democratic Republic of the Congo¹ (109 territories) | 59.9 | 15.6 | 26% |
Ecuador¹ (Venezuelan migrants) | 0.4 | 0.3 | 76% |
El Salvador¹ (Eastern region) | 1.4 | 0.3 | 22% |
Eswatini¹ (rural population) | 0.9 | 0.2 | 25% |
Ethiopia¹ (selected areas in 6 regions) | 28.7 | 8 | 27% |
Gambia | 2 | 0.2 | 10% |
Guatemala¹ | 16.6 | 3.1 | 18% |
Guinea | 10.1 | 0.3 | 3% |
Guinea-Bissau¹ | 1.3 | 0.1 | 10% |
Haiti¹ | 10.5 | 3.7 | 35% |
Honduras¹ (13 departments) | 5.1 | 1 | 18% |
Iraq | 39.3 | 1.8 | 5% |
Kenya¹ (Arid and Semi-Arid Lands) | 13.9 | 3.1 | 22% |
Lebanon¹ (Syrian refugees) | 0.9 | 0.3 | 29% |
Lesotho¹ (rural population) | 1.5 | 0.4 | 30% |
Liberia | 4.3 | 0.04 | 1% |
Libya | 6.7 | 0.3 | 5% |
Madagascar¹ (Southern, south-eastern and eastern areas) | 4.6 | 1.3 | 28% |
Malawi¹ | 15.3 | 3.3 | 22% |
Mali¹ | 20.5 | 0.6 | 3% |
Mauritania¹ | 4.1 | 0.6 | 15% |
Mozambique¹ (39 districts) | 5 | 1.7 | 34% |
Myanmar | 54 | 0.7 | 1% |
Namibia | 2.4 | 0.4 | 18% |
Nicaragua | 6 | 0.08 | 1% |
Niger¹ | 21.8 | 1.4 | 7% |
Nigeria¹ (16 states and Federal Capital Territory) | 103.5 | 5 | 5% |
Pakistan¹ (Balochistan and Sindh drought-affected areas) | 6 | 3.1 | 51% |
Palestine | 5 | 1.7 | 33% |
Rwanda | 12.6 | 0.1 | 1% |
Senegal¹ | 13.2 | 0.4 | 3% |
Sierra Leone¹ | 8.1 | 0.3 | 4% |
Somalia¹ | 12.3 | 2.1 | 17% |
South Sudan² | 11.4 | 7 | 61% |
Sudan¹ (excluding West Darfur) | 41.9 | 5.9 | 14% |
Syrian Arab Republic | 18.3 | 6.6 | 36% |
Turkey¹ (Syrian refugees) | 2.7 | 0.5 | 17% |
Uganda | 40 | 1.5 | 4% |
Ukraine (Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and IDP) | 6.1 | 0.5 | 9% |
United Republic of Tanzania¹ (16 districts) | 4.8 | 1 | 20% |
Venezuela¹ | 28.5 | 9.3 | 32% |
Yemen² | 29.9 | 15.9 | 53% |
Zambia¹ (86 districts) | 9.5 | 2.3 | 24% |
Zimbabwe¹ (Rural population) | 9.4 | 3.6 | 38% |
Total populations | 825.1 million | 134.99 million |
Source: GRFC 2020, Table 5 – Peak numbers of acutely food-insecure people in countries with food crises, 2019
¹ Include populations classified in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4)
² Include populations classified in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) and in Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5)
While starvation is a pressing global issue even at the best of times, the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is projected to almost double these numbers by an additional 130 million people—a total of 265 million by the end of 2020.
To put that into perspective, that’s roughly equal to the population of every city and town in the United States combined.
A Continent in Crisis
Food insecurity impacts populations around the world, but Africa faces bigger hurdles than any other continent. The below map provides a deeper dive:
Over half of populations analyzed by the report – 73 million people – are found in Sub-Saharan Africa. Main drivers of acute food insecurity found all over the continent include:
- Conflict/Insecurity
Examples: Interstate conflicts, internal violence, regional/global instability, or political crises.
In many instances, these result in people being displaced as refugees. - Weather extremes
Examples: Droughts and floods - Economic shocks
Macroeconomic examples: Hyperinflation and currency depreciation
Microeconomic examples: Rising food prices, reduced purchasing power - Pests
Examples: Desert locusts, armyworms - Health shocks
Examples: Disease outbreaks, which can be worsened by poor quality of water, sanitation, or air - Displacement
A major side-effect of conflict, food insecurity, and weather shocks.
One severely impacted country is the Democratic Republic of Congo, where over 15 million people are experiencing acute food insecurity. DRC’s eastern region is experiencing intense armed conflict, and as of March 2020, the country is also at high risk of Ebola re-emergence.
Meanwhile, in Eastern Africa, a new generation of locusts has descended on croplands, wiping out vital food supplies for millions of people. Weather conditions have pushed this growing swarm of trillions of locusts into countries that aren’t normally accustomed to dealing with the pest. Swarms have the potential to grow exponentially in just a few months, so this could continue to cause big problems in the region in 2020.
Insecurity in Middle East and Asia
In the Middle East, 43 million more people are dealing with similar challenges. Yemen is the most food-insecure country in the world, with 15.9 million (53% of its analyzed population) in crisis. It’s also the only area where food insecurity is at a Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) level, a result of almost three years of civil war.
Another troubled spot in the Middle East is Afghanistan, where 11.3 million people find themselves in a critical state of acute food insecurity. Over 138,000 refugees returned to the country from Iran and Pakistan between January-March 2020, putting a strain on food resources.
Over half (51%) of the analyzed population of Pakistan also faces acute food insecurity, the highest in all of Asia. These numbers have been worsened by extreme weather conditions such as below-average monsoon rains.
An Incomplete Analysis
As COVID-19 deteriorates economic conditions, it could also result in funding cuts to major humanitarian organizations. Upwards of 300,000 people could die every day if this happens, according to the World Food Program’s executive director.
The GRFC report also warns that these projections are still inadequate, due to major data gaps and ongoing challenges. 16 countries, such as Iran or the Philippines have not been included in the analysis due to insufficient data available.
More work needs to be done to understand the true severity of global food insecurity, but what is clear is that an ongoing pandemic will not do these regions any favors. By the time the dust settles, the food insecurity problem could be compounded significantly.
Countries
Charted: The Number of Democracies Globally
How many democracies does the world have? This visual shows the change since 1945 and the top nations becoming more (and less) democratic.

Charted: The Number of Democracies Globally
The end of World War II in 1945 was a turning point for democracies around the world.
Before this critical turning point in geopolitics, democracies made up only a small number of the world’s countries, both legally and in practice. However, over the course of the next six decades, the number of democratic nations would more than quadruple.
Interestingly, studies have found that this trend has recently reversed as of the 2010s, with democracies and non-democracies now in a deadlock.
In this visualization, Staffan Landin uses data from V-DEM’s Electoral Democratic Index (EDI) to highlight the changing face of global politics over the past two decades and the nations that contributed the most to this change.
The Methodology
V-DEM’s EDI attempts to measure democratic development in a comprehensive way, through the contributions of 3,700 experts from countries around the world.
Instead of relying on each nation’s legally recognized system of government, the EDI analyzes the level of electoral democracy in countries on a range of indicators, including:
- Free and fair elections
- Rule of law
- Alternative sources of information and association
- Freedom of expression
Countries are assigned a score on a scale from 0 to 1, with higher scores indicating a higher level of democracy. Each is also categorized into four types of functional government, from liberal and electoral democracies to electoral and closed autocracies.
Which Countries Have Declined the Most?
The EDI found that numerous countries around the world saw declines in democracy over the past two decades. Here are the 10 countries that saw the steepest decline in EDI score since 2010:
Country | Democracy Index (2010) | Democracy Index (2022) | Points Lost |
---|---|---|---|
🇭🇺 Hungary | 0.80 | 0.46 | -34 |
🇵🇱 Poland | 0.89 | 0.59 | -30 |
🇷🇸 Serbia | 0.61 | 0.34 | -27 |
🇹🇷 Türkiye | 0.55 | 0.28 | -27 |
🇮🇳 India | 0.71 | 0.44 | -27 |
🇲🇱 Mali | 0.51 | 0.25 | -26 |
🇹🇭 Thailand | 0.44 | 0.20 | -24 |
🇦🇫 Afghanistan | 0.38 | 0.16 | -22 |
🇧🇷 Brazil | 0.88 | 0.66 | -22 |
🇧🇯 Benin | 0.64 | 0.42 | -22 |
Central and Eastern Europe was home to three of the countries seeing the largest declines in democracy. Hungary, Poland, and Serbia lead the table, with Hungary and Serbia in particular dropping below scores of 0.5.
Some of the world’s largest countries by population also decreased significantly, including India and Brazil. Across most of the top 10, the “freedom of expression” indicator was hit particularly hard, with notable increases in media censorship to be found in Afghanistan and Brazil.
Countries Becoming More Democratic
Here are the 10 countries that saw the largest increase in EDI score since 2010:
Country | Democracy Index (2010) | Democracy Index (2022) | Points Gained |
---|---|---|---|
🇦🇲 Armenia | 0.34 | 0.74 | +40 |
🇫🇯 Fiji | 0.14 | 0.40 | +26 |
🇬🇲 The Gambia | 0.25 | 0.50 | +25 |
🇸🇨 Seychelles | 0.45 | 0.67 | +22 |
🇲🇬 Madagascar | 0.28 | 0.48 | +20 |
🇹🇳 Tunisia | 0.40 | 0.56 | +16 |
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | 0.42 | 0.57 | +15 |
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | 0.41 | 0.56 | +15 |
🇲🇩 Moldova | 0.59 | 0.74 | +15 |
🇳🇵 Nepal | 0.46 | 0.59 | +13 |
Armenia, Fiji, and Seychelles saw significant improvement in the autonomy of their electoral management bodies in the last 10 years. Partially as a result, both Armenia and Seychelles have seen their scores rise above 0.5.
The Gambia also saw great improvement across many election indicators, including the quality of voter registries, vote buying, and election violence. It was one of five African countries to make the top 10 most improved democracies.
With the total number of democracies and non-democracies almost tied over the past four years, it is hard to predict the political atmosphere in the future.
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