Staying Put: The COVID-19 Commuter Decline
Every day, millions of people worldwide rely on public transport networks to get around. But in times of crisis, bustling cities with high volumes of commuter traffic can come to a dramatic halt.
Today’s chart breaks down daily data from Citymapper’s Mobility Index, according to trips planned on the transport app across 41 select cities.
The results paint a unique picture of how social distancing and lockdown measures are impacting commuter and economic activity in major urban hubs.
Cities With the Biggest Drops in Activity
As the government response to the COVID-19 pandemic intensifies and people are urged to stay home, transit activity is dropping everywhere.
However, some areas are seeing more of a reduction in activity than others. Where has activity declined the most over the month?
Rank | City | Country | 04-Mar | 11-Mar | 18-Mar | 25-Mar | Total Change (%) |
#1 | Vienna | 🇦🇹 Austria | 128% | 92% | 9% | 6% | -122% |
#2 | Lisbon | 🇵🇹 Portugal | 128% | 108% | 24% | 12% | -116% |
#3 | Istanbul | 🇹🇷 Turkey | 117% | 103% | 20% | 10% | -107% |
#4 | Barcelona | 🇪🇸 Spain | 105% | 86% | 6% | 4% | -101% |
#5 | Brussels | 🇧🇪 Belgium | 107% | 96% | 15% | 7% | -100% |
#6 | São Paolo | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 112% | 113% | 33% | 12% | -100% |
#7 | New York City | 🇺🇸 USA | 104% | 85% | 17% | 7% | -97% |
#8 | Madrid | 🇪🇸 Spain | 100% | 65% | 5% | 4% | -96% |
#9 | Los Angeles | 🇺🇸 USA | 108% | 81% | 23% | 13% | -95% |
#10 | Melbourne | 🇦🇺 Australia | 113% | 110% | 53% | 20% | -93% |
*Note: Data measures the % of city moving compared to 100% baseline.
Overall, Vienna and Lisbon are the cities with the biggest average drop in commuter activity over the past few weeks. This decline in mobility is correlated with a spike in the proportion of COVID-19 cases in the population:
- Austria
March 4: 2.6 per million
March 25: 586 per million
- Portugal
March 4: 0.4 per million
March 25: 232 per million
That said, not every city is seeing a precipitous decline in activity — let’s look at those next.
Standing Still, or On Guard
Cities that saw lower decreases in commuter activity over recent weeks can generally be slotted into three categories:
- Cities that were already on or near shutdown (Seoul, Milan)
- Cities that have so far avoided major impacts from the virus (St. Petersburg)
- Cities that successfully mitigated spread (Singapore)
Here are the 10 cities on the list that saw the lowest changes in activity:
Rank | City | Country | 04-Mar | 11-Mar | 18-Mar | 25-Mar | Total Change (%) |
#1 | Seoul | 🇰🇷 South Korea | 48% | 43% | 41% | 37% | -11% |
#2 | Hong Kong | 🇭🇰 China (SAR) | 50% | 52% | 48% | 37% | -13% |
#3 | Singapore | 🇸🇬 Singapore | 90% | 88% | 79% | 62% | -28% |
#4 | Milan | 🇮🇹 Italy | 43% | 10% | 5% | 3% | -40% |
#5 | Tokyo | 🇯🇵 Japan | 63% | 54% | 42% | 21% | -42% |
#6 | St Petersburg | 🇷🇺 Russia | 114% | 114% | 85% | 69% | -45% |
#7 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia | 112% | 113% | 75% | 54% | -58% |
#8 | Rhine-Ruhr | 🇩🇪 Germany | 75% | 72% | 28% | 15% | -60% |
#9 | Stockholm | 🇸🇪 Sweden | 97% | 83% | 34% | 32% | -65% |
#10 | Lyon | 🇫🇷 France | 75% | 97% | 6% | 4% | -71% |
*Note: Data measures the % of city moving compared to 100% baseline.
St. Petersburg is still seeing commuter activity at 69% of normal levels as of March 25th, as the proportion of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia remains low, at roughly 3.4 per million.
Milan has the lowest activity of any city at 3%, and has been in shutdown for most of the month.
Although Singapore’s total COVID-19 cases grew from 18.8 to 95.4 per million, it still has 62% commuter activity. Interestingly, Singapore is one of the few countries that has been able to properly control and manage its COVID-19 outbreak.
Biggest Weekly Declines
As the month progressed, various cities showed stark one-week declines in commuter activity based on official healthcare recommendations and growing case numbers.
After a government lockdown announced on March 9, Rome experienced the sharpest decline of -75% commuter activity in the week from March 4 to March 11. Currently, there is only 5% activity compared to usual, similar to Milan.
In the second week of March, COVID-19 cases in France jumped fourfold, from 27.3 per million to 118.4 per million people. As a result, Lyon saw a whopping -91% drop in commuter activity—going from 97% on March 11 to 6% on March 18.
Over the past week, as cases in Australia reached 95 per million, Sydney and Melbourne exhibited the highest average declines at -36% and -33% in commuter activity respectively.
Full List of 41 Cities
Here’s the full list of cities, courtesy of Citymapper.
City, Country | March 4 | March 11 | March 18 | March 25 | Total Change (%) |
Vienna, Austria | 128% | 92% | 9% | 6% | -122% |
Lisbon, Portugal | 128% | 108% | 24% | 12% | -116% |
Istanbul, Turkey | 117% | 103% | 20% | 10% | -107% |
Barcelona, Spain | 105% | 86% | 6% | 4% | -101% |
Brussels, Belgium | 107% | 96% | 15% | 7% | -100% |
São Paulo, Brazil | 112% | 113% | 33% | 12% | -100% |
New York City, U.S. | 104% | 85% | 17% | 7% | -97% |
Madrid, Spain | 100% | 65% | 5% | 4% | -96% |
Los Angeles, U.S. | 108% | 81% | 23% | 13% | -95% |
Melbourne, Australia | 113% | 110% | 53% | 20% | -93% |
Amsterdam, Netherlands | 98% | 86% | 13% | 6% | -92% |
Washington DC, U.S. | 97% | 82% | 15% | 6% | -91% |
San Francisco, U.S. | 96% | 65% | 9% | 6% | -90% |
Boston, U.S. | 97% | 77% | 16% | 7% | -90% |
Chicago, U.S. | 97% | 92% | 16% | 7% | -90% |
Montréal, Canada | 103% | 104% | 31% | 14% | -89% |
Paris, France | 95% | 89% | 8% | 6% | -89% |
London, UK | 100% | 91% | 36% | 12% | -88% |
Manchester, UK | 100% | 91% | 42% | 13% | -87% |
Sydney, Australia | 106% | 99% | 56% | 20% | -86% |
Mexico City, Mexico | 109% | 110% | 53% | 23% | -86% |
Rome, Italy | 91% | 16% | 6% | 5% | -86% |
Copenhagen, Denmark | 97% | 80% | 11% | 11% | -86% |
Berlin, Germany | 93% | 86% | 26% | 12% | -81% |
Birmingham, UK | 99% | 91% | 45% | 18% | -81% |
Toronto, Canada | 97% | 91% | 32% | 19% | -78% |
Vancouver, Canada | 94% | 89% | 38% | 16% | -78% |
Philadelphia, U.S. | 89% | 85% | 22% | 13% | -76% |
Monaco, Monaco | 81% | 50% | 12% | 7% | -74% |
Hamburg, Germany | 85% | 72% | 20% | 12% | -73% |
Seattle, U.S. | 80% | 51% | 19% | 8% | -72% |
Lyon, France | 75% | 97% | 6% | 4% | -71% |
Stockholm, Sweden | 97% | 83% | 34% | 32% | -65% |
Rhine-Ruhr, Germany | 75% | 72% | 28% | 15% | -60% |
Moscow, Russia | 112% | 113% | 75% | 54% | -58% |
St Petersburg, Russia | 114% | 114% | 85% | 69% | -45% |
Tokyo, Japan | 63% | 54% | 42% | 21% | -42% |
Milan, Italy | 43% | 10% | 5% | 3% | -40% |
Singapore, Singapore | 90% | 88% | 79% | 62% | -28% |
Hong Kong, Hong Kong | 50% | 52% | 48% | 37% | -13% |
Seoul, South Korea | 48% | 43% | 41% | 37% | -11% |
*Note: Data measures the % of city moving compared to 100% baseline.
The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting everything from the stock market to the environment. With cities actively working to keep populations in isolation and healthy during this time, it may take a while before commuter activity returns to normal.