Chart of the Week

The Changing Anatomy of U.S. Oil Imports Over the Last Decade

Published

3 years ago

December 23, 2016

Jeff Desjardins

The Changing Anatomy of U.S. Oil Imports Over the Last Decade

The Changing Anatomy of U.S. Oil Imports

In 10 short years, Canada has replaced the once mighty OPEC

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

OPEC was once a name that made world leaders shake in their boots.

In the early 1970s, the infamous oil cartel controlled more than 50% of global market share. The power of the cartel was also clear – in response to the Yom Kippur War of 1973, many OPEC countries (that were a part of OAPEC – the Organization for Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) initiated production cuts and an oil embargo against Western countries.

Oil prices quadrupled from $3 to $12, and OPEC producers raked in the cash.

Meanwhile, the West was in a panic. Emergency energy rations were imposed, currencies were devalued, gasoline sales were restricted, and Sunday driving was banned in seven European countries.

No Longer Mighty?

The organization still has some influence, though it seems to be harder to come by.

After many months of squabbling, OPEC recently came to its first deal to cut production since 2008. That’s kept the oil price above $50/bbl, but gains will be effectively capped once low-cost shale producers ramp up production again.

OPEC often touts its 81% share of global “proven” reserves as a sign of its might:

However, it seems OPEC’s peak influence is in the rear-view mirror due to several external factors.

To start with the obvious, oil is slowly waning in importance in the global energy mix. According to the EIA, oil made up 34% of total global energy demand in 2010. By the year 2040, the EIA expects this share will be closer to 30%, though things could happen faster if the technology behind renewables and batteries makes a bigger impact than expected.

Next, U.S. domestic production has almost doubled because of the shale and fracking revolution. In 2008, the U.S. produced 5.0 million bpd, and in 2015 the country averaged 9.4 million bpd.

Lastly, as you can see on the chart, accelerated development of Canada’s Oil Sands has enabled the U.S. to buy any imports needed from Canada instead of the Middle East. In 2005, Canada only supplied 16.1% of U.S. oil imports, but Canada is now the major supplier of oil to the U.S. with a massive 43.0% share.

With Donald Trump taking the reins in 2017, Obama’s decision on the Keystone XL pipeline could easily be reversed and then fast-tracked for completion. Such a move could bump Canada’s share of U.S. oil imports even higher, downsizing influence from OPEC even more.

Internal Friction

It’s not just a changing global macro environment that is hurting OPEC’s influence.

Internally, their members have shifting goals and needs, and this has made the organization largely dysfunctional over recent years.

The biggest factor? It’s Saudi Arabia, a country that is the largest oil producer in the group, but also a global low-cost leader. It has outsized influence in the cartel, but it also has way bigger margins to play with. This means that sometimes maintaining market share is more important than maximizing profit margins for the Saudis, and other countries disagree with this stance.

With the Saudis finally capitulating to a production cut, maybe the OPEC forces can remain aligned over the near-term. Then again, it might be a temporary fix as OPEC influence continues to slowly sink – especially now that OPEC as a whole is only the second biggest supplier of imports to the U.S., and shrinking.

Related Topics:canada energy imports oil opec production united states

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Chart of the Week

The Road to Recovery: Which Economies are Reopening?

We look at mobility rates as well as COVID-19 recovery rates for 41 economies, to see which countries are reopening for business.

Published

2 days ago

May 28, 2020

Iman Ghosh

The Road to Recovery: Which Economies are Reopening?

COVID-19 has brought the world to a halt—but after months of uncertainty, it seems that the situation is slowly taking a turn for the better.

Today’s chart measures the extent to which 41 major economies are reopening, by plotting two metrics for each country: the mobility rate and the COVID-19 recovery rate:

Mobility Index
This refers to the change in activity around workplaces, subtracting activity around residences, measured as a percentage deviation from the baseline.
COVID-19 Recovery Rate
The number of recovered cases in a country is measured as the percentage of total cases.

Data for the first measure comes from Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, which relies on aggregated, anonymous location history data from individuals. Note that China does not show up in the graphic as the government bans Google services.

COVID-19 recovery rates rely on values from CoronaTracker, using aggregated information from multiple global and governmental databases such as WHO and CDC.

Reopening Economies, One Step at a Time

In general, the higher the mobility rate, the more economic activity this signifies. In most cases, mobility rate also correlates with a higher rate of recovered people in the population.

Here’s how these countries fare based on the above metrics.

Country	Mobility Rate	Recovery Rate	Total Cases	Total Recovered
Argentina	-56%	31.40%	14,702	4,617
Australia	-41%	92.03%	7,150	6,580
Austria	-100%	91.93%	16,628	15,286
Belgium	-105%	26.92%	57,849	15,572
Brazil	-48%	44.02%	438,812	193,181
Canada	-67%	52.91%	88,512	46,831
Chile	-110%	41.58%	86,943	36,150
Colombia	-73%	26.28%	25,366	6,665
Czechia	-29%	70.68%	9,140	6,460
Denmark	-93%	88.43%	11,512	10,180
Finland	-93%	81.57%	6,743	5,500
France	-100%	36.08%	186,238	67,191
Germany	-99%	89.45%	182,452	163,200
Greece	-32%	47.28%	2,906	1,374
Hong Kong	-10%	97.00%	1,067	1,035
Hungary	-49%	52.31%	3,816	1,996
India	-65%	42.88%	165,386	70,920
Indonesia	-77%	25.43%	24,538	6,240
Ireland	-79%	88.92%	24,841	22,089
Israel	-31%	87.00%	16,872	14,679
Italy	-52%	64.99%	231,732	150,604
Japan	-33%	84.80%	16,683	14,147
Malaysia	-53%	80.86%	7,629	6,169
Mexico	-69%	69.70%	78,023	54,383
Netherlands	-97%	0.01%	45,950	3
New Zealand	-21%	98.01%	1,504	1,474
Norway	-100%	91.87%	8,411	7,727
Philippines	-87%	23.08%	15,588	3,598
Poland	-36%	46.27%	22,825	10,560
Portugal	-65%	58.99%	31,596	18,637
Singapore	-105%	55.02%	33,249	18,294
South Africa	-74%	52.44%	27,403	14,370
South Korea	-4%	91.15%	11,344	10,340
Spain	-67%	69.11%	284,986	196,958
Sweden	-93%	13.91%	35,727	4,971
Switzerland	-101%	91.90%	30,796	28,300
Taiwan	4%	95.24%	441	420
Thailand	-36%	96.08%	3,065	2,945
U.S.	-56%	28.20%	1,768,346	498,720
United Kingdom	-82%	0.05%	269,127	135
Vietnam	15%	85.02%	327	278

Mobility data as of May 21, 2020 (Latest available). COVID-19 case data as of May 29, 2020.

In the main scatterplot visualization, we’ve taken things a step further, assigning these countries into four distinct quadrants:

1. High Mobility, High Recovery

High recovery rates are resulting in lifted restrictions for countries in this quadrant, and people are steadily returning to work.

New Zealand has earned praise for its early and effective pandemic response, allowing it to curtail the total number of cases. This has resulted in a 98% recovery rate, the highest of all countries. After almost 50 days of lockdown, the government is recommending a flexible four-day work week to boost the economy back up.

2. High Mobility, Low Recovery

Despite low COVID-19 related recoveries, mobility rates of countries in this quadrant remain higher than average. Some countries have loosened lockdown measures, while others did not have strict measures in place to begin with.

Brazil is an interesting case study to consider here. After deferring lockdown decisions to state and local levels, the country is now averaging the highest number of daily cases out of any country. On May 28th, for example, the country had 24,151 new cases and 1,067 new deaths.

3. Low Mobility, High Recovery

Countries in this quadrant are playing it safe, and holding off on reopening their economies until the population has fully recovered.

Italy, the once-epicenter for the crisis in Europe is understandably wary of cases rising back up to critical levels. As a result, it has opted to keep its activity to a minimum to try and boost the 65% recovery rate, even as it slowly emerges from over 10 weeks of lockdown.

4. Low Mobility, Low Recovery

Last but not least, people in these countries are cautiously remaining indoors as their governments continue to work on crisis response.

With a low 0.05% recovery rate, the United Kingdom has no immediate plans to reopen. A two-week lag time in reporting discharged patients from NHS services may also be contributing to this low number. Although new cases are leveling off, the country has the highest coronavirus-caused death toll across Europe.

The U.S. also sits in this quadrant with over 1.7 million cases and counting. Recently, some states have opted to ease restrictions on social and business activity, which could potentially result in case numbers climbing back up.

Over in Sweden, a controversial herd immunity strategy meant that the country continued business as usual amid the rest of Europe’s heightened regulations. Sweden’s COVID-19 recovery rate sits at only 13.9%, and the country’s -93% mobility rate implies that people have been taking their own precautions.

COVID-19’s Impact on the Future

It’s important to note that a “second wave” of new cases could upend plans to reopen economies. As countries reckon with these competing risks of health and economic activity, there is no clear answer around the right path to take.

COVID-19 is a catalyst for an entirely different future, but interestingly, it’s one that has been in the works for a while.

Without being melodramatic, COVID-19 is like the last nail in the coffin of globalization…The 2008-2009 crisis gave globalization a big hit, as did Brexit, as did the U.S.-China trade war, but COVID is taking it to a new level.

—Carmen Reinhart, incoming Chief Economist for the World Bank

Will there be any chance of returning to “normal” as we know it?

Chart of the Week

Visualizing the Countries Most Reliant on Tourism

With international travel grinding to a halt, here are the economies that have the most to lose from a lack of tourism.

Published

1 week ago

May 22, 2020

Dorothy Neufeld

Visualizing the Countries Most Reliant on Tourism

Without a steady influx of tourism revenue, many countries could face severe economic damage.

As the global travel and tourism industry stalls, the spillover effects to global employment are wide-reaching. A total of 330 million jobs are supported by this industry around the world, and it contributes 10%, or $8.9 trillion to global GDP each year.

Today’s infographic uses data from the World Travel & Tourism Council, and it highlights the countries that depend the most on the travel and tourism industry according to employment—quantifying the scale that the industry contributes to the health of the global economy.

Ground Control

Worldwide, 44 countries rely on the travel and tourism industry for more than 15% of their total share of employment. Unsurprisingly, many of the countries suffering the most economic damage are island nations.

At the same time, data reveals the extent to which certain larger nations rely on tourism. In New Zealand, for example, 479,000 jobs are generated by the travel and tourism industry, while in Cambodia tourism contributes to 2.4 million jobs.

Rank	Country	T&T Share of Jobs (2019)	T&T Jobs (2019)	Population
1	Antigua & Barbuda	91%	33,800	97,900
2	Aruba	84%	35,000	106,800
3	St. Lucia	78%	62,900	183,600
4	US Virgin Islands	69%	28,800	104,400
5	Macau	66%	253,700	649,300
6	Maldives	60%	155,600	540,500
7	St. Kitts & Nevis	59%	14,100	53,200
8	British Virgin Islands	54%	5,500	30,200
9	Bahamas	52%	103,900	393,200
10	Anguilla	51%	3,800	15,000
11	St. Vincent & the Grenadines	45%	19,900	110,900
12	Seychelles	44%	20,600	98,300
13	Grenada	43%	24,300	112,500
14	Former Netherlands Antilles	41%	25,700	26,200
15	Belize	39%	64,800	397,600
16	Cape Verde	39%	98,300	556,000
17	Dominica	39%	13,600	72,000
18	Vanuatu	36%	29,000	307,100
19	Barbados	33%	44,900	287,400
20	Cayman Islands	33%	12,300	65,700
21	Jamaica	33%	406,100	2,961,000
22	Montenegro	33%	66,900	628,100
23	Georgia	28%	488,200	3,989,000
24	Cambodia	26%	2,371,100	16,719,000
25	Fiji	26%	90,700	896,400
26	Croatia	25%	383,400	4,105,000
27	Philippines	24%	10,237,700	109,600,000
28	Sao Tome and Principe	23%	14,500	219,200
29	Bermuda	23%	7,800	62,300
30	Albania	22%	254,300	2,880,000
31	Iceland	22%	44,100	341,200
32	Greece	22%	846,200	10,420,000
33	Thailand	21%	8,054,600	69,800,000
34	Malta	21%	52,800	441,500
35	New Zealand	20%	479,400	4,822,000
36	Lebanon	19%	434,200	6,825,000
37	Mauritius	19%	104,200	1,272,000
38	Portugal	19%	902,400	10,197,000
39	Kiribati	18%	6,600	119,000
40	Gambia	18%	129,600	2,417,000
41	Jordan	18%	254,700	10,200,000
42	Dominican Republic	17%	810,800	10,848,000
43	Uruguay	16%	262,500	3,474,000
44	Namibia	15%	114,600	2,541,000

Croatia, another tourist hotspot, is hoping to reopen in time for peak season—the country generated tourism revenues of $13B in 2019. With a population of over 4 million, travel and tourism contributes to 25% of its workforce.

How the 20 Largest Economies Stack Up

Tourist-centric countries remain the hardest hit from global travel bans, but the world’s biggest economies are also feeling the impact.

In Spain, tourism ranks as the third highest contributor to its economy. If lockdowns remain in place until September, it is projected to lose $68 billion (€62 billion) in revenues.

Rank	Country	Travel and Tourism, Contribution to GDP
1	Mexico	15.5%
2	Spain	14.3%
3	Italy	13.0%
4	Turkey	11.3%
5	China	11.3%
6	Australia	10.8%
7	Saudi Arabia	9.5%
8	Germany	9.1%
9	United Kingdom	9.0%
10	U.S.	8.6%
11	France	8.5%
12	Brazil	7.7%
13	Switzerland	7.6%
14	Japan	7.0%
15	India	6.8%
16	Canada	6.3%
17	Netherlands	5.7%
18	Indonesia	5.7%
19	Russia	5.0%
20	South Korea	2.8%

On the other hand, South Korea is impacted the least: just 2.8% of its GDP is reliant on tourism.

Travel, Interrupted

Which countries earn the most from the travel and tourism industry in absolute dollar terms?

Topping the list was the U.S., with tourism contributing over $1.8 trillion to its economy, or 8.6% of its GDP in 2019. The U.S. remains a global epicenter for COVID-19 cases, and details remain unconfirmed if the country will reopen to visitors before summer.

Travel and tourism contribution to GDP in absolute terms

Meanwhile, the contribution of travel and tourism to China’s economy has more than doubled over the last decade, approaching $1.6 trillion. To help bolster economic activity, China and South Korea have eased restrictions by establishing a travel corridor.

As countries slowly reopen, other travel bubbles are beginning to make headway. For example, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have eased travel restrictions by creating an established travel zone. Australia and New Zealand have a similar arrangement on the horizon. These travel bubbles allow citizens from each country to travel within a given zone.

Of course, COVID-19 will have a lasting impact on employment and global economic activity with inconceivable outcomes. When the dust finally settles, could global tourism face a reckoning?