Energy
The Changing Anatomy of U.S. Oil Imports Over the Last Decade
The Changing Anatomy of U.S. Oil Imports
In 10 short years, Canada has replaced the once mighty OPEC
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
OPEC was once a name that made world leaders shake in their boots.
In the early 1970s, the infamous oil cartel controlled more than 50% of global market share. The power of the cartel was also clear – in response to the Yom Kippur War of 1973, many OPEC countries (that were a part of OAPEC – the Organization for Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) initiated production cuts and an oil embargo against Western countries.
Oil prices quadrupled from $3 to $12, and OPEC producers raked in the cash.
Meanwhile, the West was in a panic. Emergency energy rations were imposed, currencies were devalued, gasoline sales were restricted, and Sunday driving was banned in seven European countries.
No Longer Mighty?
The organization still has some influence, though it seems to be harder to come by.
After many months of squabbling, OPEC recently came to its first deal to cut production since 2008. That’s kept the oil price above $50/bbl, but gains will be effectively capped once low-cost shale producers ramp up production again.
OPEC often touts its 81% share of global “proven” reserves as a sign of its might:
However, it seems OPEC’s peak influence is in the rear-view mirror due to several external factors.
To start with the obvious, oil is slowly waning in importance in the global energy mix. According to the EIA, oil made up 34% of total global energy demand in 2010. By the year 2040, the EIA expects this share will be closer to 30%, though things could happen faster if the technology behind renewables and batteries makes a bigger impact than expected.
Next, U.S. domestic production has almost doubled because of the shale and fracking revolution. In 2008, the U.S. produced 5.0 million bpd, and in 2015 the country averaged 9.4 million bpd.
Lastly, as you can see on the chart, accelerated development of Canada’s Oil Sands has enabled the U.S. to buy any imports needed from Canada instead of the Middle East. In 2005, Canada only supplied 16.1% of U.S. oil imports, but Canada is now the major supplier of oil to the U.S. with a massive 43.0% share.
With Donald Trump taking the reins in 2017, Obama’s decision on the Keystone XL pipeline could easily be reversed and then fast-tracked for completion. Such a move could bump Canada’s share of U.S. oil imports even higher, downsizing influence from OPEC even more.
Internal Friction
It’s not just a changing global macro environment that is hurting OPEC’s influence.
Internally, their members have shifting goals and needs, and this has made the organization largely dysfunctional over recent years.
The biggest factor? It’s Saudi Arabia, a country that is the largest oil producer in the group, but also a global low-cost leader. It has outsized influence in the cartel, but it also has way bigger margins to play with. This means that sometimes maintaining market share is more important than maximizing profit margins for the Saudis, and other countries disagree with this stance.
With the Saudis finally capitulating to a production cut, maybe the OPEC forces can remain aligned over the near-term. Then again, it might be a temporary fix as OPEC influence continues to slowly sink – especially now that OPEC as a whole is only the second biggest supplier of imports to the U.S., and shrinking.
Energy
Visualizing the Range of Electric Cars vs. Gas-Powered Cars
With range anxiety being a barrier to EV adoption, how far can an electric car go on one charge, and how do EV ranges compare with gas cars?
The Range of Electric Cars vs. Gas-Powered Cars
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EV adoption has grown rapidly in recent years, but many prospective buyers still have doubts about electric car ranges.
In fact, 33% of new car buyers chose range anxiety—the concern about how far an EV can drive on a full charge—as their top inhibitor to purchasing electric cars in a survey conducted by EY.
So, how far can the average electric car go on one charge, and how does that compare with the typical range of gas-powered cars?
The Rise in EV Ranges
Thanks to improvements in battery technology, the average range of electric cars has more than doubled over the last decade, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
| Year | Avg. EV Range | Maximum EV Range |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 79 miles (127 km) | N/A |
| 2011 | 86 miles (138 km) | 94 miles (151 km) |
| 2012 | 99 miles (159 km) | 265 miles (426 km) |
| 2013 | 117 miles (188 km) | 265 miles (426 km) |
| 2014 | 130 miles (209 km) | 265 miles (426 km) |
| 2015 | 131 miles (211 km) | 270 miles (435 km) |
| 2016 | 145 miles (233 km) | 315 miles (507 km) |
| 2017 | 151 miles (243 km) | 335 miles (539 km) |
| 2018 | 189 miles (304 km) | 335 miles (539 km) |
| 2019 | 209 miles (336 km) | 370 miles (595 km) |
| 2020 | 210 miles (338 km) | 402 miles (647 km) |
| 2021 | 217 miles (349 km) | 520 miles* (837 km) |
*Max range for EVs offered in the United States.
Source: IEA, U.S. DOE
As of 2021, the average battery-powered EV could travel 217 miles (349 km) on a single charge. It represents a 44% increase from 151 miles (243 km) in 2017 and a 152% increase relative to a decade ago.
Despite the steady growth, EVs still fall short when compared to gas-powered cars. For example, in 2021, the median gas car range (on one full tank) in the U.S. was around 413 miles (664 km)—nearly double what the average EV would cover.
As automakers roll out new models, electric car ranges are likely to continue increasing and could soon match those of their gas-powered counterparts. It’s important to note that EV ranges can change depending on external conditions.
What Affects EV Ranges?
In theory, EV ranges depend on battery capacity and motor efficiency, but real-world results can vary based on several factors:
- Weather: At temperatures below 20℉ (-6.7℃), EVs can lose around 12% of their range, rising to 41% if heating is turned on inside the vehicle.
- Operating Conditions: Thanks to regenerative braking, EVs may extend their maximum range during city driving.
- Speed: When driving at high speeds, EV motors spin faster at a less efficient rate. This may result in range loss.
On the contrary, when driven at optimal temperatures of about 70℉ (21.5℃), EVs can exceed their rated range, according to an analysis by Geotab.
The 10 Longest-Range Electric Cars in America
Here are the 10 longest-range electric cars available in the U.S. as of 2022, based on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) range estimates:
| Car | Range On One Full Charge | Estimated Base Price |
|---|---|---|
| Lucid Air | 520 miles (837 km) | $170,500 |
| Tesla Model S | 405 miles (652 km) | $106,190 |
| Tesla Model 3 | 358 miles (576 km) | $59,440 |
| Mercedes EQS | 350 miles (563 km) | $103,360 |
| Tesla Model X | 348 miles (560 km) | $122,440 |
| Tesla Model Y | 330 miles (531 km) | $67,440 |
| Hummer EV | 329 miles (529 km) | $110,295 |
| BMW iX | 324 miles (521 km) | $84,195 |
| Ford F-150 Lightning | 320 miles (515 km) | $74,169 |
| Rivian R1S | 316 miles (509 km) | $70,000 |
Source: Car and Driver
The top-spec Lucid Air offers the highest range of any EV with a price tag of $170,500, followed by the Tesla Model S. But the Tesla Model 3 offers the most bang for your buck if range and price are the only two factors in consideration.
Energy
Green Steel: Decarbonising with Hydrogen-Fueled Production
How will high emission industries respond to climate change? We highlight industrial emissions and hydrogen’s role in green steel production.
Green Steel: Decarbonising with Hydrogen-Fueled Production
As the fight against climate change ramps up worldwide, the need for industries and economies to respond is immediate.
Of course, different sectors contribute different amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and face different paths to decarbonisation as a result. One massive player? Steel and iron manufacturing, where energy-related emissions account for roughly 6.1% of global emissions.
The following infographic by AFRY highlights the need for steel manufacturing to evolve and decarbonise, and how hydrogen can play a vital role in the “green” steel revolution.
The Modern Steel Production Landscape
Globally, crude steel production totalled 1,951 million tonnes (Mt) in 2021.
This production is spread all over the world, including India, Japan, and the U.S., with the vast majority (1,033 million tonnes) concentrated in China.
But despite being produced in many different places globally, only two main methods of steel production have been honed and utilised over time—electric arc furnace (EAF) and blast furnace basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) production.
Both methods traditionally use fossil fuels, and in 2019 contributed 3.6 Gt of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions:
| Steel Production Method | Materials Utilised | CO2 Emissions (2019) |
|---|---|---|
| EAF | Scrap | 0.5 Gt |
| BF-BOF | Scrap, iron ore, coke | 3.1 Gt |
That’s why one of the main ways the steel industry can decarbonise is through the replacement of fossil fuels.
Hydrogen’s Role in Green Steel Production
Of course, one of the biggest challenges facing the industry is how to decarbonise and produce “green” steel in an extremely competitive market.
As a globally-traded good with fine cost margins, steel production has been associated with major geopolitical issues, including trade disputes and tariffs. But because of climate change, there is also a sudden and massive demand for carbon-friendly production.
And that’s where hydrogen plays a key role. Steel traditionally made in a blast furnace uses coke—a high-carbon fuel made by heating coal without air—as a fuel source to heat iron ore pellets and liquify the pure iron component. This expels a lot of emissions in order to get the iron hot enough to melt (1,200 °C) and be mixed with scrap and made into steel.
The green steel method instead uses hydrogen to reduce the iron pellets into sponge iron, metallic iron that can then be processed to form steel. This process is also done at high temperature but below the melting point of iron (800 – 1,200 °C), saving energy costs.
And by introducing non-fossil fuels to create iron pellets and renewable electricity to turn the sponge iron and scrap into steel, fossil fuels can be removed from the process, significantly reducing emissions as a result.
The Future of Green Steel Production
Given the massive global demand for steel, the need for hydrogen and renewable energy required for green steel production is just as significant.
According to AFRY and the International Renewable Energy Agency, meeting global steel production in 2021 using the green steel method would require 97.6 million tonnes of hydrogen.
And for a truly carbon-free transition to green steel, the energy industry will also need to focus on green hydrogen production using electrolysis. Unlike methods which burn natural gas to release hydrogen, electrolysis entails the splitting of water (H2O) into oxygen and hydrogen using renewable energy sources.
Full green steel production would therefore use green hydrogen, electrolysers running on renewables, and additional renewables for all parts of the supply chain:
| Steel Production Source | Annual Steel Production | Green Hydrogen Required | Electrolyser Capacity Required | Total Renewables Capacity Required |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Reference | 1 Mt | 50 kT | 0.56 GW | 0.7 GW |
| U.S. | 85.8 Mt | 4.3 Mt | 48 GW | 60 GW |
| Europe | 103 Mt | 5.2 Mt | 58 GW | 72 GW |
| China | 1032.8 Mt | 51.6 Mt | 581 GW | 726 GW |
| Global | 1951 Mt | 97.6 Mt | 1,097 GW | 1,371 GW |
Currently, green hydrogen production costs are higher than traditional fossil fuel methods, and are dependent on the levelised costs of renewable energy sources. This means they vary by region, but also that they will reduce as production capacity and subsidies for renewables and green hydrogen increase.
And many major European steel manufacturers are already leading the way with pilot and large scale facilities for green steel production. Germany alone has at least seven projects in the works, including by ArcelorMittal and ThyssenKrupp, two of the world’s 10 largest steelmakers by revenue.
AFRY is a thought leadership firm that provides companies with advisory services and sustainable solutions, in their efforts to fight climate change and lead them towards a greater future.
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