Markets

Interactive: Least Affordable Housing in the U.S.

Published

6 years ago

December 27, 2016

Jeff Desjardins

The Least Affordable Housing in the United States

Interactive: Least Affordable Housing in the U.S.

It doesn’t always make sense to measure affordability by a price in absolute dollars.

With real estate in particular, every county is different and value may be relative depending on the area in question. A ranch that seems expensive to a farmer in Nebraska may be a drop in the bucket for a lawyer from Manhattan.

Today’s interactive chart from Overflow Data shows median home values plotted against median household income, which helps give you a feel for where the least affordable housing in the U.S. is located. It’s also worth noting that in this visualization, that data comes from the ACS 2011-2015 5 year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Expensive by any Measure

The least affordable housing in the U.S. falls into two categories: places that you would expect (San Francisco, New York City) and counties that may be off your radar, such as a few in Massachusetts, Washington, or Wyoming.

The Bay Area, not surprisingly, has some of the least affordable housing in the country – both in absolute terms, and in terms relative to income. There is no shortage of anecdotes for the madness occurring in San Francisco and the surrounding area, and the data reflects that.

In San Francisco proper, the median home value is $800,000 with a median income of $81,000, giving a price-to-income ratio of 9.8. Meanwhile, in Silicon Valley, housing is nearly as pricey, but many people are able to make up for it with higher incomes: San Mateo County has a ratio of 8.3, and Santa Clara County has a ratio of 7.3.

New York City, with its five boroughs, is also interesting to look at. Here they are ranked by price-to-income:

Kings County (Brooklyn): 11.8 (House value: $570,000, Income: $48,000)
New York County (Manhattan): 11.7 (House value: $849,000, Income: $73,000)
Bronx County (The Bronx): 10.6 (House value: $363,000, Income: $34,000)
Queens County (Queens): 7.8 (House value: $450,000, Income: $58,000)
Richmond County (Staten Island): 6.0 (House value: $440,000, Income: $73,000)

Brooklyn is the most expensive borough based on price-to-income, just nudging out Manhattan. The Bronx also has some of the least affordable housing in the country, mainly due to lower income levels than the rest of the city.

Pricey Enclaves

As mentioned before, states like Wyoming, Massachusetts, Colorado, and Washington also have counties that are quite expensive in terms of price-to-income.

Teton County, Wyoming: 9.1 (House value: $689,000, Income: $75,000)
Pitkin County, Colorado: 8.7 (House value: $621,000, Income: $71,000)
San Miguel County, Colorado: 9.1 (House value: $513,000, Income: $56,000)
Nantucket County, Massachusetts: 10.7 (House value: $903,000, Income: $84,000)
Dukes County, Massachusetts: 10.3 (House value: $661,000, Income: $64,000)
San Juan County, Washington: 8.3 (House value: $466,000, Income: $56,000)

Many of these, such as Teton County or Pitkin County, are located in the mountains.

Others, like the San Juans or Nantucket are made up of beautiful islands that are relatively close to major cities – in this case, Seattle and Providence/Boston respectively.

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Markets

How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing

History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.

Written By

Jenna Ross

Published May 29, 2023 • Updated May 27, 2023 •

How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing

The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.

We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.

Disinflation vs. Deflation

The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.

Time Period	March 1980-July 1983	June 2022-April 2023*
Inflation at Start of Cycle	14.8%	9.1%
Inflation at End of Cycle	2.5%	4.9%

* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.

A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.

How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?

Looking to History

There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.

With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.

Equity Issuance

Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.

Year	Deal Value
1980	$2.6B
1981	$5.0B
1982	$3.6B
1983	$13.5B
1984	$2.5B
1985	$12.0B
1986	$24.2B
1987	$24.9B
1988	$16.9B
1989	$12.9B
1990	$13.4B
1991	$45.2B
1992	$50.3B
1993	$95.3B
1994	$63.7B
1995	$79.7B
1996	$108.7B
1997	$106.5B
1998	$97.0B
1999	$142.8B
2000	$156.5B

Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.

Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.

Debt Issuance

Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.

Year	Deal Value	Interest Rate
1980	$4.5B	11.4%
1981	$6.7B	13.9%
1982	$14.5B	13.0%
1983	$8.1B	11.1%
1984	$25.7B	12.5%
1985	$46.4B	10.6%
1986	$47.1B	7.7%
1987	$26.4B	8.4%
1988	$24.7B	8.9%
1989	$29.9B	8.5%
1990	$40.2B	8.6%
1991	$41.6B	7.9%
1992	$50.0B	7.0%
1993	$487.8B	5.9%
1994	$526.4B	7.1%
1995	$632.7B	6.6%
1996	$906.0B	6.4%
1997	$1.3T	6.4%
1998	$1.8T	5.3%
1999	$1.8T	5.7%
2000	$2.8T	6.0%

Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.

As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.

It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.

Then vs. Now

Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.

Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.

	January 1981	April 2023*
Inflation Rate Annual	11.8%	4.9%
Inflation Expectations Next 12 Months	9.5%	4.5%
Interest Rate 10-Yr Treasury Yield	12.6%	3.7%
Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted	7.5%	3.4%
Nominal Wage Growth Annual, Seasonally Adjusted	9.3%	5.0%
After-Tax Corporate Profits As Share of Gross Value Added	9.1%	13.8%

* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.

The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.

What to Consider During Disinflation

Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.

High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.

In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.

Learn more about working with Citizens.

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