Economy
When Will Your Country Recover from the Pandemic?
What started as a novel virus in China quickly became a sweeping disease that shut down the world and put a 1.5 year halt on the global economy.
But while some countries’ economies are already back to normal, others are lagging far behind.
COVID-19 Recovery Timelines, by OECD Country
This chart using data from the OECD anticipates when countries will economically recover from the global pandemic, based on getting back to pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita.
Note: The categorization of ‘advanced’ or ‘emerging’ economy was determined by OECD standards.
The Leaders of the Pack
At the top, China and the U.S. are recovering at breakneck speed. In fact, recovering is the wrong word for China, as they reached pre-pandemic GDP per capita levels just after Q2’2020.
On the other end, some countries are looking at years—not months—when it comes to their recovery date. Saudi Arabia isn’t expected to recover until after Q1’2024, and Argentina is estimated to have an even slower recovery, occurring only after Q2’2026.
Country | Recovery | Economy |
---|---|---|
🇧🇪 Belgium | After Q4 2022 | Advanced |
🇸🇪 Sweden | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇸🇰 Slovakia | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇳🇿 New Zealand | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇩🇪 Germany | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇪🇪 Estonia | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇩🇰 Denmark | After Q4 2021 | Advanced |
🇮🇸 Iceland | After Q3 2023 | Advanced |
🇸🇮 Slovenia | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇵🇹 Portugal | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇫🇷 France | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇦🇹 Austria | After Q3 2022 | Advanced |
🇵🇱 Poland | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇳🇴 Norway | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇱🇺 Luxembourg | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇱🇻 Latvia | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇯🇵 Japan | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇫🇮 Finland | After Q3 2021 | Advanced |
🇪🇸 Spain | After Q2 2023 | Advanced |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇳🇱 Netherlands | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇮🇹 Italy | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇬🇷 Greece | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇨🇿 Czech Republic | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇨🇦 Canada | After Q2 2022 | Advanced |
🇺🇸 United States | After Q2 2021 | Advanced |
🇰🇷 South Korea | After Q2 2021 | Advanced |
🇮🇪 Ireland | After Q2 2021 | Advanced |
🇨🇭 Switzerland | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇮🇱 Israel | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇭🇺 Hungary | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇦🇺 Australia | After Q1 2022 | Advanced |
🇱🇹 Lithuania | After Q1 2021 | Advanced |
🇿🇦 South Africa | After Q4 2022 | Emerging |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | After Q4 2021 | Emerging |
🇮🇳 India | After Q4 2021 | Emerging |
🇲🇽 Mexico | After Q3 2023 | Emerging |
🇨🇴 Colombia | After Q3 2022 | Emerging |
🇧🇷 Brazil | After Q3 2022 | Emerging |
🇨🇱 Chile | After Q3 2021 | Emerging |
🇹🇷 Turkey | After Q3 2020 | Emerging |
🇦🇷 Argentina | After Q2 2026 | Emerging |
🇨🇷 Costa Rica | After Q2 2023 | Emerging |
🇷🇺 Russia | After Q2 2021 | Emerging |
🇨🇳 China | After Q2 2020 | Emerging |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | After Q1 2024 | Emerging |
Most countries will hit pre-pandemic levels of GDP per capita by the end of 2022. The slowest recovering advanced economies—Iceland and Spain—aren’t expected to bounce back until 2023.
Four emerging economies are speeding ahead, and are predicted to get back on their feet by the end of this year or slightly later (if they haven’t already):
- 🇷🇺 Russia: after Q2’2021
- 🇨🇱 Chile: after Q3’2021
- 🇮🇳 India: after Q4’2021
- 🇮🇩 Indonesia: after Q4’2021
However, no recovery is guaranteed, and many countries will continue face setbacks as waves of COVID-19 variants hit—India, for example, was battling its biggest wave as recently as May 2021.
Trailing Behind
Why are some countries recovering faster than others? One factor seems to be vaccination rates.
Country | Doses Administered per 100 People | Total Doses Administered | Percent of Population Fully Vaccinated |
---|---|---|---|
World | 47 | 3,573,004,544 | – |
🇦🇪 U.A.E. | 166 | 16,194,526 | 69% |
🇲🇹 Malta | 143 | 718,418 | 71% |
🇧🇭 Bahrain | 136 | 2,224,916 | 63% |
🇮🇸 Iceland | 129 | 466,434 | 70% |
🇺🇾 Uruguay | 129 | 4,458,394 | 58% |
🇨🇱 Chile | 128 | 24,248,545 | 60% |
🇦🇼 Aruba | 125 | 133,421 | 59% |
🇶🇦 Qatar | 123 | 3,474,944 | 56% |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 122 | 81,438,892 | 53% |
Mongolia | 121 | 3,912,996 | 56% |
Israel | 121 | 10,959,633 | 58% |
Canada | 118 | 44,293,659 | 48% |
Singapore | 113 | 6,440,735 | 42% |
Belgium | 111 | 12,700,513 | 46% |
Curaçao | 108 | 170,857 | 51% |
Denmark | 108 | 6,266,892 | 43% |
Maldives | 106 | 561,748 | 46% |
Netherlands | 105 | 18,273,238 | 43% |
Spain | 105 | 49,585,197 | 49% |
Hungary | 104 | 10,155,466 | 54% |
Portugal | 103 | 10,579,259 | 44% |
Luxembourg | 102 | 633,974 | 41% |
Germany | 102 | 84,989,850 | 45% |
China | 102 | 1,426,347,000 | – |
United States | 101 | 336,054,953 | 48% |
Ireland | 101 | 4,995,719 | 44% |
Austria | 100 | 8,866,474 | 44% |
Italy | 99 | 59,966,908 | 41% |
Switzerland | 95 | 8,133,486 | 42% |
France | 93 | 62,321,355 | 40% |
Sweden | 93 | 9,536,164 | 36% |
Finland | 90 | 4,951,925 | 26% |
Norway | 89 | 4,785,937 | 31% |
Greece | 89 | 9,560,592 | 42% |
Lithuania | 88 | 2,459,605 | 42% |
Czech Republic | 88 | 9,346,397 | 38% |
Poland | 85 | 32,413,199 | 42% |
Dominican Rep. | 84 | 9,066,151 | 34% |
Estonia | 79 | 1,049,416 | 34% |
Serbia | 78 | 5,415,434 | 38% |
Slovenia | 78 | 1,626,072 | 36% |
Cyprus | 76 | 916,819 | 35% |
Turkey | 74 | 61,747,399 | 23% |
Slovakia | 73 | 4,003,639 | 33% |
Mauritius | 71 | 901,530 | 24% |
Croatia | 71 | 2,870,866 | 32% |
Macau | 69 | 434,726 | 27% |
Cuba | 69 | 7,767,601 | 17% |
Latvia | 66 | 1,264,433 | 33% |
Bhutan | 64 | 487,060 | 0.02% |
Saudi Arabia | 63 | 21,556,314 | 9.2% |
Hong Kong | 62 | 4,638,908 | 26% |
Barbados | 59 | 168,955 | 25% |
Argentina | 58 | 26,134,815 | 11% |
Brazil | 57 | 120,726,752 | 16% |
Kuwait | 56 | 2,375,455 | 22% |
Morocco | 56 | 20,584,812 | 26% |
Cambodia | 56 | 9242925 | 24% |
El Salvador | 53 | 3,422,214 | 20% |
Japan | 53 | 66,714,528 | 20% |
Costa Rica | 52 | 2,606,791 | 16% |
French Polynesia | 51 | 141,523 | 24% |
Montenegro | 49 | 304,655 | 23% |
Fiji | 47 | 419,998 | 8% |
Romania | 47 | 9,092,141 | 24% |
Guyana | 46 | 363,442 | 16% |
Colombia | 45 | 22,624,568 | 19% |
Jordan | 45 | 4,498,748 | 18% |
Azerbaijan | 42 | 4,242,727 | 17% |
Panama | 42 | 1,781,542 | 15% |
Mexico | 41 | 52,704,960 | 17% |
Malaysia | 41 | 13,107,681 | 13% |
South Korea | 41 | 21,157,612 | 12% |
New Caledonia | 40 | 115,218 | 19% |
Ecuador | 40 | 6,890,876 | 10% |
Kazakhstan | 39 | 7,303,180 | 14% |
Suriname | 38 | 222,377 | 8% |
Australia | 38 | 9,631,807 | 10% |
Belize | 38 | 147,080 | 10% |
Albania | 37 | 1,052,108 | 16% |
Russia | 35 | 50,383,638 | 14% |
Oman | 35 | 1,728,618 | 6% |
North Macedonia | 34 | 713,114 | 13% |
Samoa | 32 | 62,161 | 4.7% |
Moldova | 31 | 834,527 | 13% |
Grenada | 31 | 35,072 | 13% |
Peru | 31 | 9,954,429 | 12% |
Saint Lucia | 30 | 54,361 | 13% |
Sri Lanka | 29 | 6,431,100 | 7.3% |
India | 29 | 391,340,491 | 6% |
New Zealand | 29 | 1,404,343 | 11% |
Brunei | 28 | 121,241 | 4.3% |
Tonga | 27 | 28,667 | – |
Bulgaria | 27 | 1,896,574 | 12% |
Bolivia | 27 | 3,117,521 | 7% |
Trinidad and Tobago | 27 | 375,924 | 11% |
Bahamas | 25 | 97,992 | 10% |
Lebanon | 25 | 1,693,164 | 9% |
Laos | 24 | 1,708,981 | 9% |
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 23 | 25,509 | – |
Cape Verde | 23 | 124,958 | 3% |
Timor-Leste | 22 | 281,283 | 3% |
Indonesia | 21 | 55,819,781 | 6% |
Equatorial Guinea | 21 | 279,112 | 9% |
West Bank & Gaza | 20 | 958,519 | 9% |
Thailand | 19 | 13,533,717 | 5% |
Taiwan | 19 | 4,603,639 | 1% |
Tunisia | 19 | 2,206,980 | 6% |
São Tomé and Príncipe | 18 | 37,716 | 5% |
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 14 | 470,218 | 5% |
Venezuela | 14 | 4,000,000 | 4% |
Nepal | 13 | 3,730,344 | 4% |
Philippines | 13 | 14,074,514 | 4% |
Botswana | 12 | 284,676 | 5% |
Honduras | 12 | 1,172,830 | 1% |
Paraguay | 12 | 826,642 | 2% |
Belarus | – | – | – |
Zimbabwe | 11 | 1,575,539 | 4% |
Comoros | 11 | 90,880 | – |
Uzbekistan | 11 | 3,541,442 | 4% |
Pakistan | 10 | 2,166,0650 | 2% |
Jamaica | 9.8 | 290,382 | 4% |
Armenia | 8.8 | 260,813 | 2% |
Ukraine | 8.8 | 3,899,890 | 3% |
Iran | 7.9 | 6,530,124 | 3% |
Georgia | 7.8 | 289,399 | 3% |
South Africa | 7.7 | 4,535,222 | 3% |
Guatemala | 6.9 | 1,146,477 | 1% |
Namibia | 6.7 | 166,616 | 1% |
Myanmar | 6.5* | 3,500,000 | – |
Libya | 6.3 | 425,119 | – |
Bangladesh | 6.2 | 10,108,224 | 3% |
Guinea | 6 | 770,688 | 2% |
Algeria | – | – | – |
Eswatini | 5.2 | 60,069 | 2% |
Rwanda | 5.1 | 646,909 | 2% |
Senegal | 5.1 | 823,610 | 2% |
Angola | 4.9 | 1,558,201 | 2% |
Egypt | 4.8 | 4,851,349 | 1% |
Vanuatu | 4.7 | 14,026 | – |
Vietnam | 4.3 | 4,185,623 | 0.3% |
Togo | – | – | – |
Tajikistan | 4.3 | 397,694 | 0.2% |
Ghana | 4.2 | 1,265,306 | 1% |
Mauritania | 4 | 182,642 | 0.3% |
Solomon Islands | 3.8 | 25,628 | 1% |
Ivory Coast | 3.3 | 861,278 | – |
Gabon | 3.3 | 72,351 | 1% |
Republic of the Congo | 3 | 163,742 | – |
Kenya | 2.9 | 1,550,389 | 1% |
Sierra Leone | 2.9 | 225,380 | 0.2% |
Iraq | 2.8 | 1,087,866 | 1% |
Djibouti | 2.8 | 26,796 | – |
Afghanistan | 2.7 | 1,024,168 | 1% |
Kyrgyzstan | 2.7 | 173,700 | 1.% |
Lesotho | 2.7 | 56,322 | 1% |
Nicaragua | – | – | – |
Uganda | 2.4 | 1,079,943 | – |
Malawi | 2.3 | 428,407 | 0.2% |
Nigeria | 2 | 3,938,945 | 1% |
Liberia | 1.9 | 95,423 | 0.2% |
Ethiopia | 1.9 | 2,090,997 | – |
Gambia | 1.9 | 43,557 | 1% |
Niger | 1.8 | 423,335 | 0.3% |
Mozambique | 1.7 | 508,184 | 1% |
Central African Republic | 1.7 | 78,685 | – |
Somalia | 1.6 | 249,790 | 1% |
Sudan | 1.6 | 677,957 | 0.3% |
Zambia | 1.4 | 243,818 | 0.3% |
Guinea-Bissau | 1.3 | 25,012 | 0.1% |
Yemen | 1 | 297,405 | <0.1% |
Mali | 1 | 196,862 | 0.3% |
Syria | 0.8 | 131,221 | 0.1% |
Madagascar | 0.7 | 197,001 | – |
Turkmenistan | – | – | – |
Cameroon | 0.6 | 163,921 | 0.1% |
Papua New Guinea | 0.6 | 51,170 | <0.1% |
South Sudan | 0.5 | 55,915 | <0.1% |
Benin | 0.4 | 52,563 | 0.1% |
Burkina Faso | 0.2 | 33,960 | <0.1% |
Chad | 0.2 | 24,459 | <0.1% |
Congo | 0.1 | 73,764 | <0.1% |
As of July 16th, 2021.
The higher the rate of vaccination, the harder it is for COVID-19 to spread. This gives countries a chance to loosen restrictions, let people get back to work and regular life, and fuel the economy. Additionally, the quicker vaccines are rolled out, the less time there is for variants to mutate.
Another factor is the overall strength of a country’s healthcare infrastructure. More advanced economies often have more ICU capacity, more efficient dissemination of public health information, and, simply, more hospital staff. These traits help better handle the pandemic, with reduced cases, less restrictions, and a speedy recovery.
Finally, the level of government support and fiscal stimulus injected into different economies has determined how swiftly they’ve recovered. Similar to the disparity in vaccine rollouts, there was a significant fiscal stimulus gap, especially during the heat of the pandemic.
Recovering to Normal?
Many experts and government leaders are now advocating for funneling more money into healthcare infrastructure and disease research preventatively. The increased funding now would help stop worldwide shut downs and needless loss of life in future.
Time will tell when we return to “normal” everywhere, however, normal will likely never be the same. Many impacts of the global pandemic will stay with us over the long term.
Politics
Charted: What Southeast Asia Thinks About China & the U.S.
A significant share of respondents from an ASEAN-focused survey are not happy about rising American and Chinese influence in the region.
What Southeast Asia Thinks About China & the U.S.
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
This chart visualizes the results of a 2024 survey conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Nearly 2,000 respondents were asked if they were worried or welcoming of rising Chinese and American geopolitical influence in their country.
The countries surveyed all belong to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a political and economic union of 10 states in Southeast Asia.
Feelings Towards China
On average, a significant share of respondents from all 10 countries are worried about rising influence from both the U.S. and China.
However, overall skepticism is higher for China, at 74% (versus 59% for U.S.).
Country | Worried About Growing 🇨🇳 Influence | Welcome Growing 🇨🇳 Influence |
---|---|---|
🇧🇳 Brunei | 58% | 42% |
🇰🇭 Cambodia | 66% | 34% |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | 57% | 43% |
🇱🇦 Laos | 68% | 32% |
🇲🇾 Malaysia | 56% | 44% |
🇲🇲 Myanmar | 95% | 5% |
🇵🇭 Philippines | 81% | 19% |
🇸🇬 Singapore | 74% | 26% |
🇹🇭 Thailand | 84% | 16% |
🇻🇳 Vietnam | 96% | 4% |
Average | 74% | 27% |
The recently-cooled but still active territorial concerns over the South China Sea may play a significant role in these responses, especially in countries which are also claimants over the sea.
For example, in Vietnam over 95% of respondents said they were worried about China’s growing influence.
Feelings Towards America
Conversely, rising American influence is welcomed in two countries with competing claims in the South China Sea, the Philippines (69%) and Vietnam (55%).
Country | Worried About Growing 🇺🇸 Influence | Welcome Growing 🇺🇸 Influence |
---|---|---|
🇧🇳 Brunei | 73% | 27% |
🇰🇭 Cambodia | 58% | 42% |
🇮🇩 Indonesia | 73% | 27% |
🇱🇦 Laos | 79% | 21% |
🇲🇾 Malaysia | 68% | 32% |
🇲🇲 Myanmar | 45% | 55% |
🇵🇭 Philippines | 32% | 69% |
🇸🇬 Singapore | 37% | 63% |
🇹🇭 Thailand | 80% | 20% |
🇻🇳 Vietnam | 45% | 55% |
Average | 59% | 41% |
Despite this, on a regional average, more respondents worry about growing American influence (59%) than they welcome it (41%).
Interestingly, it seems almost every ASEAN nation has a clear preference for one superpower over the other.
The only exception is Thailand, where those surveyed were not a fan of either option, with 84% worried about China, and 80% worried about the U.S.
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