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What’s Ahead in 2015: A Survey of Wall Street’s Top Analysts

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What's Ahead in 2015: A Survey of Wall Street's Top Analysts

What’s Ahead in 2015: A Survey of Wall Street’s Top Analysts

The folks on Wall Street remain optimistic that the party will keep on going. Hopefully nobody takes away the punch bowl.

Ten of the top analysts from the mainstays of Wall Street made predictions to Barron’s in an annual December survey. Their expectations for 2015? The S&P 500 will continue to soar (+10% was the mean prediction), the American economy will continue to gain traction (+3.0% GDP growth), and the top performing sectors will be Technology and Financials.

The worst performing sector will be Utilities, which has been the best performing sector of 2014 so far.

While we were not surprised that top analysts chose their own sector (Financials) as a top performer, we were surprised that not a single analyst expects a pullback in 2015. In the same sense, the vast range of GDP expectation variability is between the bounds of 2.8% and 3.5% growth.

Keep the Kool-Aid flowing, and drink it all up before it sits out in the sun too long.

For the full survey, check out Barron’s article here on it.

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Economy

All of the World’s Exports by Country, in One Chart

We visualize nearly $25 trillion of global exports by country, showing you the top exporting nations and the data behind it all.

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Top exporters

All of the World’s Exports by Country, in One Chart

In 2022, the total export value of global goods reached nearly $25 trillion.

With the evolution of international trade, the effects of globalization, and progress in technology, global trade has increased by around 300% over the last 20 years.

This visualization by Truman Du uses data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) to chart the world’s top exporters by country.

China is Still the “World’s Factory”

The world’s largest 11 exporters shipped out $12.8 trillion of goods in 2022, more than the rest of the world combined ($12.1 trillion).

The list is headed by China, with $3.6 trillion or 14% of total exports. The country has been the largest exporter of goods in the world since 2009.

Top 11CountryExports (USD)
1🇨🇳 China$3.6T
2🇺🇸 U.S.$2.1T
3🇩🇪 Germany$1.7T
4🇳🇱 Netherlands$965.5B
5🇯🇵 Japan$746.9B
6🇰🇷 South Korea$683.6B
7🇮🇹 Italy$656.9B
8🇧🇪 Belgium$632.9B
9🇫🇷 France$617.8B
10🇭🇰 Hong Kong$609.9B
11🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates $598.5B

In 2022, the top products exported from China by value were phones (including smartphones), computers, optical readers, integrated circuits, solar power diodes, and semiconductors.

Two of China’s primary trading partners are neighboring countries Japan and South Korea.

Mexico Surpasses China as America’s Largest Trading Partner

China has built up significant trade relations with the European Union and the United States, two of the world’s largest markets for goods.

However, recent trade tensions have led to China losing its status as the United States’ biggest trading partner in 2023.

Mexico has now overtaken China as the largest seller to the United States. This shift in trade dynamics is part of a broader effort by the U.S. to import goods from closer to home and reduce its dependence on geopolitical rivals.

U.S. trade partners: China, Mexico, and Canada

The U.S. itself is the world’s second largest goods exporter, with over $2 trillion annually.

Canada was the largest purchaser of U.S. exports in 2022, accounting for 17% of total exports, followed by Mexico, China, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

The top exports of the United States are refined petroleum, petroleum gas, crude petroleum, cars, and integrated circuits.

The Regional View of Exports by Country

From a regional perspective, it’s clear Asia dominates the trading market with over 36% of the total exports, followed by Europe with 34%.

Exports by country, by region

Source: World Trade Organization

While Asian, European, and North American countries have manufactured and technology products among their main exports, African and South American countries mostly export commodities such as oil, gold, diamonds, cocoa, timber, and precious metals.

A New Era of Deglobalization?

International trade grew immensely at the beginning of the 21st century, from $15.6 trillion in 2001 to $40.7 trillion in 2008.

Since then, protectionist trade policies such as taxes on foreign goods and import quotas have increased by 663%. Similarly, global trade as a percent of GDP has also stalled out, peaking in 2008 and going sideways ever since.

Despite many countries reducing their interdependence and integration in the post-COVID era, global exports are still set to grow by 70% between 2020 and 2030, reaching $29.7 trillion by 2030, according to Standard Chartered.

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