Healthcare
Explained: The 3 Major COVID-19 Variants
Explained: The 3 Major COVID-19 Variants
As billions of people gear up for widespread vaccination against COVID-19, another issue has reared its head. Three major COVID-19 variants have emerged across the globe—and preliminary research suggests these variants may be cause for concern.
But what makes them different from the original strain?
The following visualizations answer some key questions, including when these variants were first discovered, how far they’ve spread worldwide, and most importantly, their potential impact on the population.
Some Context: What is a Variant?
Before diving in, it’s important to understand why viruses mutate in the first place.
To infect someone, a virus takes over a host cell and uses it to replicate itself. But nature isn’t perfect, and sometimes, mistakes are made during the replication process—those mistakes are called mutations.
A virus with one or more mutations is referred to as a variant. Most of the time, variants do not affect a virus’s physical structure, and in those instances, they eventually disappear. However, there are certain cases when a mutation impacts part of a virus’s genetic makeup that does change its behavior.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) a change in behavior can alter:
- Rate of transmission
- Deadliness
- Ability to potentially infect someone with natural or vaccine-induced immunity
Preliminary research has detected some of these changes in the three major COVID-19 variants—B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.
The 3 Major COVID-19 Variants
The three major variants emerged at different times, and in different parts of the world. Here’s an overview of each variant, when they were discovered, and how far they’ve spread so far.
B.1.1.7
The B.1.1.7 variant was detected in the UK in the fall of 2020. By December 2020, it had spread across the globe, with cases emerging across Europe, North America, and Asia.
Currently, the variant has been reported in roughly 94 countries.
Early research suggests it’s 50% more transmissible than other variants, and potentially 35% more deadly than the standard virus. Luckily, studies suggest that some of the existing vaccines work well against it.
B.1.351
In October 2020, the second major variant was discovered—B.1.351. It was first identified in South Africa, but by end of the year, it had spread to the UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Japan.
There are approximately 48 countries with reported cases, and research suggests several of the existing COVID-19 vaccines may not be as effective against this variant.
P.1
The P.1 variant was the last to arrive on the scene.
It was first discovered in January 2021, when Japan reported four cases of the variant, which was found in travelers who had arrived from Brazil.
Approximately 25 countries have reported cases of the P.1 variant, and early research suggests this variant is not only more contagious, but could also have the ability to infect people with natural immunity who had already recovered from the original strain.
Still Early Days
While there have been preliminary studies showing a dip in vaccine effectiveness, some experts emphasize that it’s too early to tell for certain. More data is needed to gain a deeper and more accurate understanding.
In the meantime, experts are emphasizing the importance of following our current public health strategies, which include physical distancing, vaccination, washing your hands, and using masks.
Healthcare
Charted: Average Years Left to Live by Age
Visualizing the number of years left to live for Americans at every age, reveals the broader trends in American life expectancy.

How Many Years Do You Have Left to Live?
At the start of the 19th century, when there fewer than 1 billion humans on the earth, global life expectancy at birth stood at roughly 29 years.
This is a startlingly low figure—because life expectancy is a statistical projection of how many more years a person can expect to live, based on the mortality rates at the time. And since the infant mortality rate in particular was so high, life expectancies accurately summarized the low likelihood of many babies living to adulthood.
However, since the 1920s, life expectancy across all ages has improved leaps and bounds, thanks to rapid advancements in nutrition, healthcare, and sanitation.
We visualized the current American life expectancy by age and gender, using data from the Office of Social Security, which bases their current projections on 2020 mortality rates.
American Life Expectancy at Every Age
A key takeaway with life expectancy is that it increases as one gets older. This is easily seen in the table below, which lists the remaining years left to live at a given age for an American male and the projected life expectancy.
Age | Years Remaining (Men) | Life Expectancy (Men) |
---|---|---|
0 | 74.12 | 74.12 |
1 | 73.55 | 74.55 |
2 | 72.58 | 74.58 |
3 | 71.60 | 74.60 |
4 | 70.62 | 74.62 |
5 | 69.63 | 74.63 |
6 | 68.64 | 74.64 |
7 | 67.65 | 74.65 |
8 | 66.65 | 74.65 |
9 | 65.66 | 74.66 |
10 | 64.67 | 74.67 |
11 | 63.68 | 74.68 |
12 | 62.69 | 74.69 |
13 | 61.70 | 74.70 |
14 | 60.71 | 74.71 |
15 | 59.73 | 74.73 |
16 | 58.76 | 74.76 |
17 | 57.79 | 74.79 |
18 | 56.84 | 74.84 |
19 | 55.90 | 74.90 |
20 | 54.97 | 74.97 |
21 | 54.04 | 75.04 |
22 | 53.12 | 75.12 |
23 | 52.21 | 75.21 |
24 | 51.30 | 75.30 |
25 | 50.39 | 75.39 |
26 | 49.48 | 75.48 |
27 | 48.57 | 75.57 |
28 | 47.66 | 75.66 |
29 | 46.76 | 75.76 |
30 | 45.86 | 75.86 |
31 | 44.97 | 75.97 |
32 | 44.07 | 76.07 |
33 | 43.18 | 76.18 |
34 | 42.29 | 76.29 |
35 | 41.39 | 76.39 |
36 | 40.50 | 76.50 |
37 | 39.62 | 76.62 |
38 | 38.73 | 76.73 |
39 | 37.85 | 76.85 |
40 | 36.97 | 76.97 |
41 | 36.09 | 77.09 |
42 | 35.21 | 77.21 |
43 | 34.34 | 77.34 |
44 | 33.46 | 77.46 |
45 | 32.59 | 77.59 |
46 | 31.73 | 77.73 |
47 | 30.87 | 77.87 |
48 | 30.01 | 78.01 |
49 | 29.17 | 78.17 |
50 | 28.33 | 78.33 |
51 | 27.50 | 78.50 |
52 | 26.67 | 78.67 |
53 | 25.86 | 78.86 |
54 | 25.06 | 79.06 |
55 | 24.27 | 79.27 |
56 | 23.48 | 79.48 |
57 | 22.71 | 79.71 |
58 | 21.95 | 79.95 |
59 | 21.21 | 80.21 |
60 | 20.47 | 80.47 |
61 | 19.74 | 80.74 |
62 | 19.03 | 81.03 |
63 | 18.32 | 81.32 |
64 | 17.63 | 81.63 |
65 | 16.94 | 81.94 |
66 | 16.26 | 82.26 |
67 | 15.58 | 82.58 |
68 | 14.91 | 82.91 |
69 | 14.24 | 83.24 |
70 | 13.59 | 83.59 |
71 | 12.94 | 83.94 |
72 | 12.30 | 84.30 |
73 | 11.67 | 84.67 |
74 | 11.05 | 85.05 |
75 | 10.46 | 85.46 |
76 | 9.88 | 85.88 |
77 | 9.32 | 86.32 |
78 | 8.77 | 86.77 |
79 | 8.25 | 87.25 |
80 | 7.74 | 87.74 |
81 | 7.25 | 88.25 |
82 | 6.77 | 88.77 |
83 | 6.31 | 89.31 |
84 | 5.88 | 89.88 |
85 | 5.47 | 90.47 |
86 | 5.07 | 91.07 |
87 | 4.70 | 91.70 |
88 | 4.35 | 92.35 |
89 | 4.02 | 93.02 |
90 | 3.72 | 93.72 |
91 | 3.44 | 94.44 |
92 | 3.18 | 95.18 |
93 | 2.96 | 95.96 |
94 | 2.75 | 96.75 |
95 | 2.57 | 97.57 |
96 | 2.42 | 98.42 |
97 | 2.28 | 99.28 |
98 | 2.15 | 100.15 |
99 | 2.04 | 101.04 |
100 | 1.93 | 101.93 |
101 | 1.83 | 102.83 |
102 | 1.73 | 103.73 |
103 | 1.63 | 104.63 |
104 | 1.54 | 105.54 |
105 | 1.45 | 106.45 |
106 | 1.36 | 107.36 |
107 | 1.27 | 108.27 |
108 | 1.18 | 109.18 |
109 | 1.10 | 110.10 |
110 | 1.02 | 111.02 |
111 | 0.95 | 111.95 |
112 | 0.88 | 112.88 |
113 | 0.82 | 113.82 |
114 | 0.76 | 114.76 |
115 | 0.70 | 115.70 |
116 | 0.65 | 116.65 |
117 | 0.60 | 117.60 |
118 | 0.56 | 118.56 |
119 | 0.52 | 119.52 |
120 | 0.48 | 120.48 |
At birth, an average American baby boy can expect to live till just past 74. But if the boy reaches adulthood, then at 21 he might live to a full year more, past 75. This trend persists even towards the end of life when the years we have left drop rapidly, influenced by the higher likelihood of death.
American women, on the other hand, have a higher life expectancy than men. At birth the gap is close to six years, narrowing steadily to around one year by 85.
Age | Years Remaining (Women) | Life Expectancy (Women) |
---|---|---|
0 | 79.78 | 79.78 |
1 | 79.17 | 80.17 |
2 | 78.19 | 80.19 |
3 | 77.21 | 80.21 |
4 | 76.22 | 80.22 |
5 | 75.23 | 80.23 |
6 | 74.24 | 80.24 |
7 | 73.25 | 80.25 |
8 | 72.25 | 80.25 |
9 | 71.26 | 80.26 |
10 | 70.27 | 80.27 |
11 | 69.27 | 80.27 |
12 | 68.28 | 80.28 |
13 | 67.29 | 80.29 |
14 | 66.30 | 80.30 |
15 | 65.31 | 80.31 |
16 | 64.32 | 80.32 |
17 | 63.34 | 80.34 |
18 | 62.36 | 80.36 |
19 | 61.38 | 80.38 |
20 | 60.41 | 80.41 |
21 | 59.44 | 80.44 |
22 | 58.47 | 80.47 |
23 | 57.50 | 80.50 |
24 | 56.54 | 80.54 |
25 | 55.58 | 80.58 |
26 | 54.61 | 80.61 |
27 | 53.66 | 80.66 |
28 | 52.70 | 80.70 |
29 | 51.74 | 80.74 |
30 | 50.79 | 80.79 |
31 | 49.84 | 80.84 |
32 | 48.89 | 80.89 |
33 | 47.94 | 80.94 |
34 | 47.00 | 81.00 |
35 | 46.06 | 81.06 |
36 | 45.12 | 81.12 |
37 | 44.18 | 81.18 |
38 | 43.24 | 81.24 |
39 | 42.31 | 81.31 |
40 | 41.38 | 81.38 |
41 | 40.45 | 81.45 |
42 | 39.52 | 81.52 |
43 | 38.60 | 81.60 |
44 | 37.68 | 81.68 |
45 | 36.76 | 81.76 |
46 | 35.85 | 81.85 |
47 | 34.94 | 81.94 |
48 | 34.04 | 82.04 |
49 | 33.14 | 82.14 |
50 | 32.24 | 82.24 |
51 | 31.35 | 82.35 |
52 | 30.47 | 82.47 |
53 | 29.59 | 82.59 |
54 | 28.72 | 82.72 |
55 | 27.86 | 82.86 |
56 | 27.01 | 83.01 |
57 | 26.16 | 83.16 |
58 | 25.32 | 83.32 |
59 | 24.49 | 83.49 |
60 | 23.67 | 83.67 |
61 | 22.85 | 83.85 |
62 | 22.04 | 84.04 |
63 | 21.24 | 84.24 |
64 | 20.45 | 84.45 |
65 | 19.66 | 84.66 |
66 | 18.88 | 84.88 |
67 | 18.10 | 85.10 |
68 | 17.34 | 85.34 |
69 | 16.58 | 85.58 |
70 | 15.82 | 85.82 |
71 | 15.08 | 86.08 |
72 | 14.36 | 86.36 |
73 | 13.64 | 86.64 |
74 | 12.94 | 86.94 |
75 | 12.26 | 87.26 |
76 | 11.60 | 87.60 |
77 | 10.95 | 87.95 |
78 | 10.31 | 88.31 |
79 | 9.70 | 88.70 |
80 | 9.10 | 89.10 |
81 | 8.53 | 89.53 |
82 | 7.98 | 89.98 |
83 | 7.44 | 90.44 |
84 | 6.93 | 90.93 |
85 | 6.44 | 91.44 |
86 | 5.99 | 91.99 |
87 | 5.55 | 92.55 |
88 | 5.15 | 93.15 |
89 | 4.76 | 93.76 |
90 | 4.41 | 94.41 |
91 | 4.08 | 95.08 |
92 | 3.78 | 95.78 |
93 | 3.51 | 96.51 |
94 | 3.27 | 97.27 |
95 | 3.05 | 98.05 |
96 | 2.85 | 98.85 |
97 | 2.68 | 99.68 |
98 | 2.52 | 100.52 |
99 | 2.37 | 101.37 |
100 | 2.23 | 102.23 |
101 | 2.09 | 103.09 |
102 | 1.96 | 103.96 |
103 | 1.84 | 104.84 |
104 | 1.72 | 105.72 |
105 | 1.61 | 106.61 |
106 | 1.51 | 107.51 |
107 | 1.41 | 108.41 |
108 | 1.32 | 109.32 |
109 | 1.24 | 110.24 |
110 | 1.16 | 111.16 |
111 | 1.09 | 112.09 |
112 | 1.02 | 113.02 |
113 | 0.96 | 113.96 |
114 | 0.90 | 114.90 |
115 | 0.85 | 115.85 |
116 | 0.80 | 116.80 |
117 | 0.75 | 117.75 |
118 | 0.70 | 118.70 |
119 | 0.66 | 119.66 |
120 | 0.62 | 120.62 |
Interestingly, women outlive men in nearly every country in the world, due to a mix of sociological, behavioral, and biological reasons.
COVID-19: Reversing A Decade of Increasing American Life Expectancy
While the current American life expectancy at birth seems reasonably high, it is nearly two years lower than the 2022 figure which used the 2019 mortality rate. It is also lower than the life expectancy at birth in 2009, which used 2005 mortality rate.
Year | Life Expectancy at Birth (Men) | Life Expectancy at Birth (Women) |
---|---|---|
2009 | 74.12 | 79.95 |
2014 | 76.10 | 80.94 |
2019 | 76.04 | 80.99 |
2023 | 74.12 | 79.78 |
American mortality rates went up 17% between 2019–2020, in part because of COVID-19, in turn affecting life expectancy. The U.S. also had a higher COVID-19 mortality rate compared to its peers two years after the pandemic first struck.
Thus, American life expectancy may not improve immediately to 2019 levels, which can affect insurance premiums, pension benefits, and plans.
Where Does This Data Come From?
Source: Office of Social Security, U.S. Government.
Note: The life expectancy at a given age is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for 2020 over the course of their remaining life.
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