Despite being roughly nine years into the second-longest bull market in history, recent headwinds have cropped up to make the start of 2018 an interesting one for markets.
As investors re-evaluate their portfolios and exposure, it’s worth exploring some of the major themes and trends that are expected to drive markets in 2018.
Predictions for 2018
Today’s infographic was done in collaboration with Swissquote, a Swiss banking group, and it highlights their five most important predictions for the rest of the year ahead.
Taken from their 2018 Market Outlook Report, which can be downloaded for free, the following graphic discusses key themes of the year such as central bank policy, European unity, China, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets.
Enjoy the infographic? Get the full report for free from the Swissquote 2018 Market Outlook page.
Here are the high level points of Swissquote’s predictions:
1. Fed in Inflation Fighting Stance
Despite a strong economy, specifically tight labor markets, inflation has perplexingly not appeared. In Swissquote’s view, expansionary monetary policy by central banks is the primary reason for the current stretched valuations.
And of the central banks, the Fed is not only the most important – but also the most active. Expecting a sudden kick from ultra-tight labor markets to boost wage growth and consumer inflation, the Fed is again ready to act in 2018.
As a result, Swissquote sees U.S. GDP growing 2.2%, the labor market tightening, and annual core PCE inflation hitting 1.8%.
Prediction: The Fed will hike three times.
2. Unified Europe Will Emerge from Spain
The start of 2017 brought fears of the EU’s demise, as rising political populism suggested an end to EU federalism. However, despite recent events in Catalonia, Swissquote sees Europe actually emerging from 2018 more united.
Heading into 2018, economic sentiment in Europe is at 10-year highs. Further, the election of Macron in France – and the re-election of Merkel in Germany – will mean a continued push for deeper EU integration.
In 2018, Swissquote sees the following headwinds in Europe: uncertainty around independence in Catalonia, the Italian elections, and austerity in Greece.
Prediction: The powerful trio of Macron, Merkel, and Draghi will weather the storm – and their unity will have a profound effect on pricing in events such as Brexit and the Italian elections.
3. China Grabs the Political Void
China’s economy will slow in growth slightly in 2018, but the country’s regional economic dominance is undisputed. With a GDP (PPP) of $21.5 trillion, it even dwarfs India ($8.7 trillion), Japan ($5.3 trillion) and Russia ($3.4 trillion) combined.
And empowered by the volatile behavior of President Trump, China has embraced its new role as regional and global leader. Judging from the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos and the Chinese Communist party congress, Xi Jinping and China are ready to step into the light.
Prediction: China will step up efforts to further entrench its hybrid model, which includes politics and economics.
4. Cryptocurrencies are the Real “Populist” Vote
While the Brexit and Trump votes represent the protest of existing systems – there’s also a monetary component to that populism that is hiding in plain sight.
Central banks have created trillions of dollars out of thin air since the 2008 crisis, and people no longer trust the government to protect their money and wealth. As a result? People have been pouring money into bitcoins and altcoins instead.
Prediction: This “populist” vote against the monetary policy of global central banks will continue in full form.
5. Emerging Markets Lead the Growth Charge
GDP growth in emerging markets for 2017 is expected to be 4.5% – its highest point since 2015 – versus 2.1% for developed markets.
Although protectionism will continue to make the headlines, any real action will be limited, even by the Trump administration.
Prediction: The story for EM in 2018 will be a further increase in international trading. Following a trend, China has reached 15 free-trade agreements with 23 countries and regions. And like in 2017, emerging markets will continue to have more growth and higher returns as a result.
Decentralized Finance: An Emerging Alternative to the Global Financial System
What is decentralized finance? Learn how technology is changing the rules of the game, creating the potential for a new financial system to emerge.
Decentralized Finance: An Emerging Alternative
The global financial system has created massive wealth, but its centralized nature means the spoils have gone to the people who are best connected to the financial centers of the world.
As global inequality continues to rise, how can wealth building tools become more accessible to the rest of the global population?
Luckily, technological developments and their rapid adoption make this the right time for a new decentralized financial system to emerge:
- The Internet: 3.9 billion users by the end of 2018
- The proliferation of smartphones: Two-thirds of the unbanked have mobile phones
- Digital banking: over 2 billion users by end of 2018
- Bitcoin and Blockchain: the emergence of new public blockchains
Today’s infographic comes to us from investment app Abra, and it highlights how public blockchains could help to enable a decentralized finance system.
What is Decentralized Finance?
Decentralized finance describes a new decentralized financial system that is built on public blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum. After all, Bitcoin and Ethereum aren’t just digital currencies — they’re foundational open source networks that could be used to change how the global economy works.
There are six primary features that differentiate public blockchains from the private networks used by governments and traditional financial institutions:
- Permissionless: Anyone in the world can connect to the network
- Decentralized: Records are kept simultaneously across thousands of computers
- Trustless: A central party isn’t required to ensure transactions are valid
- Transparent: All transactions are publicly auditable
- Censorship Resistant: A central party cannot invalidate user transactions
- Programmable: Developers can program business logic into low-cost financial services
In such a financial system, users will have access to apps that use public blockchains to participate in new open global markets – but how would this shape the global financial system for the better?
The Potential Impact of Decentralized Finance
Here are five ways that decentralized finance will have an impact on the world:
1. Wider Global Access to Financial Services
With decentralized finance, anyone with an internet connection and a smartphone could access financial services. There are a variety of barriers that prevent access in the current system:
- Status: Lack of citizenship, documentation, credentials, etc.
- Wealth: High entry-level funds required to access financial services
- Location: Vast distance from functioning economies and financial service providers
In a decentralized financial system, a top trader at a financial firm would have the same level of access as a farmer in a remote region of India.
2. Affordable Cross-Border Payments
Decentralized finance removes costly intermediaries to make remittance services more affordable for the global population.
In the current system, it’s prohibitively expensive for people to send money across borders: the average global remittance fee is 7%. Through decentralized financial services, remittance fees could be below 3%.
3. Improved Privacy and Security
In decentralized finance, users have custody of their wealth and can transact securely without validation from a central party. Meanwhile, in the current system, custodial institutions put people’s wealth and information at risk if they fail to secure it.
4. Censorship-Resistant Transactions
In a decentralized financial system, transactions are immutable and blockchains can’t be shut off by central institutions like governments, central banks, or big corporations.
In places with poor governance and authoritarianism, users can divest to the decentralized financial system to protect their wealth. For example, Venezuelans are already adopting Bitcoin to protect their wealth from government manipulation and hyperinflation.
5. Simple Use
Plug and play apps will allow people to intuitively use decentralized financial services without the complexity of the centralized system.
With a decentralized system, a woman in the Philippines could receive a loan from the U.S., invest in a business in Colombia, and then pay off her debt and purchase a home – all through interoperable apps.
The Potential Blue Sky
Unless governments and central banks suddenly cease to exist, it’s difficult to imagine a world where decentralized finance completely replaces their centralized counterparts.
But what if they can co-exist?
Public blockchains can interact with the traditional financial system to create a new hybrid model:
- Users could conduct economic activity on public blockchains and exchange their new wealth into the centralized system.
- Users could hedge against systemic risk by diversifying their wealth holdings in both the central and decentralized system.
Like the internet with knowledge, decentralized finance could help democratize the financial system.
But will we allow it?
The 7 Major Flaws of the Global Financial System
Since the invention of banking, the global financial system has increasingly become more centralized. Here are the big flaws it has, as a result.
The 7 Major Flaws of the Global Financial System
Since the invention of banking, the global financial system has become increasingly centralized.
In the modern system, central banks now control everything from interest rates to the issuance of currency, while government regulators, corporations, and intergovernmental organizations wield unparalleled influence at the top of this crucial food chain.
There is no doubt that this centralization has led to the creation of massive amounts of wealth, especially to those properly connected to the financial system. However, the same centralization has also arguably contributed to many global challenges and risks we face today.
Flaws of the Global Financial System
Today’s infographic comes to us from investment app Abra, and it highlights the seven major flaws of the global financial system, ranging from the lack of basic access to financial services to growing inequality.
1. Billions of people globally remain unbanked
To participate in the global financial sector, whether it is to make a digital payment or manage one’s wealth, one must have access to a bank account. However, 1.7 billion adults worldwide remain unbanked, having zero access to an account with a financial institution or a mobile money provider.
2. Global financial literacy remains low
For people to successfully use financial services and markets, they must have some degree of financial literacy. According to a recent global survey, just 1-in-3 people show an understanding of basic financial concepts, with most of these people living in high income economies.
Without an understanding of key concepts in finance, it makes it difficult for the majority of the population to make the right decisions – and to build wealth.
3. High intermediary costs and slow transactions
Once a person has access to financial services, sending and storing money should be inexpensive and fast.
However, just the opposite is true. Around the globe, the average cost of a remittance is 7.01% in fees per transaction – and when using banks, that rises to 10.53%. Even worse, these transactions can take days at a time, which seems quite unnecessary in today’s digital era.
4. Low trust in financial institutions and governments
The financial sector is the least trusted business sector globally, with only a 57% level of trust according to Edelman. Meanwhile, trust in governments is even lower, with only 40% trusting the U.S. government, and the global country average sitting at 47%.
5. Rising global inequality
In a centralized system, financial markets tend to be dominated by those who are best connected to them.
These are people who have:
- Access to many financial opportunities and asset classes
- Capital to deploy
- Informational advantages
- Access to financial expertise
In fact, according to recent data on global wealth concentration, the top 1% own 47% of all household wealth, while the top 10% hold roughly 85%.
On the other end of the spectrum, the vast majority of people have little to no financial assets to even start building wealth. Not only are many people living paycheck to paycheck – but they also don’t have access to assets that can create wealth, like stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or ETFs.
6. Currency manipulation and censorship
In a centralized system, countries have the power to manipulate and devalue fiat currencies, and this can have a devastating effect on markets and the lives of citizens.
In Venezuela, for example, the government has continually devalued its currency, creating runaway hyperinflation as a result. The last major currency manipulation in 2018 increased the price of a cup of coffee by over 772,400% in six months.
Further, centralized power also gives governments and financial institutions the ability to financially censor citizens, by taking actions such as freezing accounts, denying access to payment systems, removing funds from accounts, and denying the retrieval of funds during bank runs.
7. The build-up of systemic risk
Finally, centralization creates one final and important drawback.
With financial power concentrated with just a select few institutions, such as central banks and “too big too fail” companies, it means that one abject failure can decimate an entire system.
This happened in 2008 as U.S. subprime mortgages turned out to be an Achilles Heel for bank balance sheets, creating a ripple effect throughout the globe. Centralization means all eggs in one basket – and if that basket breaks it can possibly lead to the destruction of wealth on a large scale.
The Future of the Global Financial System?
The risks and drawbacks of centralization to the global financial system are well known, however there has never been much of a real alternative – until now.
With the proliferation of mobile phones and internet access, as well as the development of decentralization technologies like the blockchain, it may be possible to build an entirely new financial system.
But is the world ready?
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