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The Power of Dividend Investing

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The Power of Dividend Investing

The Power of Dividend Investing

If you start talking about dividend investing at your next cocktail event, it’s possible that other patrons may not see you as the life of the party.

But that’s okay – because while dividends are not necessarily sexy, they are a foolproof way to reel in consistent, predictable returns in the market. And for decades, seasoned investors have leaned on dividends to help power their portfolios through both good and bad times in the market.

What is a Dividend?

When a company earns a profit, it essentially has two options.

1. Re-invest in the business
This is the option chosen by many high-growth companies. They pay down debt, or expand their operations to make more profit in the future.

2. Issue a dividend to shareholders
A dividend is a share of after-tax profit of a company, distributed to its shareholders according to the number and class of shares held by them.

How and when is a dividend issued?

  • Both the amount and timing of dividends is determined by the Board of Directors
  • Usually for public companies, dividends happen on a quarterly or annual basis
  • Most dividends are declared by large and established “blue chip” companies (i.e. P&G, McDonald’s)
  • Dividends are often paid if a company is unable to reinvest its cash at a higher rate than shareholders

Most importantly for investors, dividends from good companies should be predictable and sustainable. Some companies like Coca-Cola have been paying out uninterrupted dividends on common stock for over a century.

The History of Dividends

1250
The first company to ever pay a dividend was likely a French bank called Société des Moulins du Bazacle, which was formed in 1250.

1602
The Dutch East India Company was the first company to offer shares of stock. It famously paid a dividend that averaged around 18% of capital over the course of the company’s 200-year existence.

1684
The Hudson Bay Company was likely the first North American company to have paid a dividend. The first dividend went to shareholders 14 years after the company’s formation in 1670, and was worth 50% of the par value of the stock.

1910
In the early 20th century, most investors only cared about dividends. At the time, stocks were expected to have a higher dividend yield than bonds to compensate investors for the extra risk carried by equities.

2003
Microsoft declares its first dividend after 28 years of rapid growth.

Today, roughly 422 of the 500 stocks on the S&P 500 pay a dividend, including companies like 3M, Chevron, Walmart, and McDonald’s.

Why is Dividend Investing Powerful?

Most investors are aware of the power of compound interest – and dividends work in a similar way, especially when dividends get reinvested back into the company.

That’s why investing $10,000 in Coca-Cola in 1962 would have yielded more than $2 million by 2012, which is 50 years later. Dividends get reinvested to buy more stock, which produces more dividends, and so on.

The advantages of dividend investing are as follows:

  • Companies can increase dividends over time. (P&G, for example, has increased their dividend every year for 60 years)
  • Companies can’t fake dividends – a company either declares a dividend, or it doesn’t
  • Dividends protect against inflation. (Dividends have increased 4.2% since 1912, and inflation has increased 3.3%)
  • Dividends create intrinsic value, as they generate cash flow for investors
  • Dividends can help combat volatility – that’s because dividend yield increases as the market price of a stock falls, making the stock more attractive

Dividends are a key way for companies to give back to shareholders, and in the right situation, dividend stocks can be a powerful component in an investor’s portfolio.

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China

COVID-19 Crash: How China’s Economy May Offer a Glimpse of the Future

China has seen a severe economic impact from COVID-19, and it may be a preview of what’s to come for countries in the early stages of the outbreak.

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COVID-19 economic impact

The Economic Impact of COVID-19

China, once the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, appears to be turning a corner. As the number of reported local transmission cases hovers near zero, daily life is slowly returning to normal. However, economic data from the first two months of the year shows the damage done to the country’s finances.

Today’s visualization outlines the sharp losses China’s economy has experienced, and how this may foreshadow what’s to come for countries currently in the early stages of the outbreak.

A Historic Slump

The results are in: China’s business activity slowed considerably as COVID-19 spread.

Economic IndicatorYear-over-year Change (Jan-Feb 2020)
Investment in Fixed Assets*-24.5%
Retail Sales-20.5%
Value of Exports-15.9%
Industrial Production-13.5%
Services Production-13.0%

*Excluding rural household investment

As factories and shops reopen, China seems to be over the initial supply side shock caused by the lockdown. However, the country now faces a double-headed demand shock:

  • Domestic demand is slow to gain traction due to psychological scars, bankruptcies, and job losses. In a survey conducted by a Beijing financial firm, almost 65% of respondents plan to “restrain” their spending habits after the virus.
  • Overseas demand is suffering as more countries face outbreaks. Many stores are closing up shop and/or cancelling orders, leading to an oversupply of goods.

With a fast recovery seeming highly unlikely, many economists expect China’s GDP to shrink in the first quarter of 2020—the country’s first decline since 1976.

Danger on the Horizon

Are other countries destined to follow the same path? Based on preliminary economic data, it would appear so.

The U.S.
About half the U.S. population is on stay-at-home orders, severely restricting economic activity and forcing widespread layoffs. In the week ending March 21, total unemployment insurance claims rose to almost 3.3 million—their highest level in recorded history. For context, weekly claims reached a high of 665,000 during the global financial crisis.

“…The economy has just fallen over the cliff and is turning down into a recession.”

Chris Rupkey, Chief Economist at MUFG in New York

In addition, manufacturing activity in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware dropped to its lowest level since July 2012.

Globally
Other countries are also feeling the economic impact of COVID-19. For example, global online bookings for seated diners have declined by 100% year-over-year. In Canada, nearly one million people have applied for unemployment benefits.

Hard-hit countries such as Italy and Spain, which already suffer from high unemployment, are also expecting to see economic blows. However, it’s too soon to gauge the extent of the damage.

Light at the End of the Tunnel

Given the near-shutdown of many economies, the IMF is forecasting a global recession in 2020. Separately, the UN estimates COVID-19 could cause up to a $2 trillion shortfall in global income.

On the bright side, some analysts are forecasting a recovery as early as the third quarter of 2020. A variety of factors, such as government stimulus, consumer confidence, and the number of COVID-19 cases, will play into this timeline.

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COVID-19

The Hardest Hit Companies of the COVID-19 Downturn: The ‘BEACH’ Stocks

As investor confidence across the travel industry slumps amid COVID-19, market capitalizations across ‘BEACH’ stocks shrink to unprecedented levels.

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beach stocks market cap decline

BEACH Stocks: $332B in Value Washed Away

The market’s latest storm has plunged the global travel industry into uncharted territory.

Since the S&P 500 market high on February 19, 2020, market capitalizations across BEACH industries—booking, entertainment, airlines, cruises, and hotels—have tumbled. The global airline industry alone has seen $157B wiped off valuations across 116 publicly traded airlines.

Investor confidence in cruise lines has also dropped. Between Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, over half of their market value has evaporated—equal to at least $42B in combined market capitalization.

Today’s infographic profiles the steep losses across BEACH companies. It looks at the ripple effects across individual companies and industries from the February 19 peak to date*.

*All numbers as of market close on March 24, 2020

Falling Off A Cliff

As the COVID-19 pandemic has spread to over 100 countries, many governments have implemented sweeping travel restrictions.

The impact across BEACH industries is far-reaching, with some valuations declining to nearly a quarter of their previous total.

CompanyTickerCategoryMarket Cap: 02/19/2020Market Cap: 03/24/2020% Change
Booking Holdings
BKNGBooking$80.8B$51B-37%
Expedia GroupEXPEBooking$17.1B$8.1B-53%
Allegiant TravelALGTBooking$2.7B$1.4B-47%
Live Nation LYVEntertainment & Live Events$16.3B$9.1B-44%
Six FlagsSIXEntertainment & Live Events$3.2B$1.1B-66%
Cedar FairFUNEntertainment & Live Events$3.1B$1.3B-58%
The Walt Disney CoDISEntertainment & Live Events$255.1B$177B-31%
Penn National GamingPENNEntertainment & Live Events$4.3B$1.6B-63%
Delta Air LinesDALAirlines$37.5B$17.8B-52%
United Airlines UALAirlines$19.7B$8.4B-57%
American Airlines AALAirlines$12.1B$6.1B-50%
Southwest AirlinesLUVAirlines$29.5B$19.7B-33%
Alaska Air GroupALKAirlines$8B$3.7B-54%
Air Canada (in USD)ACAirlines$8.3B$2.8B-67%
CarnivalCCLCruise & Casino$30.8B$10B-67%
Royal Caribbean CruisesRCLCruise & Casino$23.2B$7.5B-68%
Norwegian Cruise LinesNCLHCruise & Casino$11.1B$3.1B-72%
Las Vegas SandsLVSCruise & Casino$52.8B$35.1B-34%
MGM Resorts InternationalMGMCruise & Casino$16.2B$6.2B-68%
Wynn ResortsWYNNCruise & Casino$14.6B$7.2B-51%
Caesars EntertainmentCZRCruise & Casino$10B$4.2B-58%
Eldorado ResortsERICruise & Casino$5.4B$1.3B-76%
Marriott InternationalMARHotels & Resorts$48.3B$25.7B-48%
HiltonHLTHotels & Resorts$31.3B$19.4B-38%
Hyatt HotelsHHotels & Resorts$9.1B$4.9B-46%
Choice Hotels InternationalCHHHotels & Resorts$6B$3.2B-46%
Wyndham Hotels & ResortsWHHotels & Resorts$5.6B$2.9B-48%
Park HotelsPKHotels & Resorts$5.5B$1.9B-66%
Vail ResortsMTNHotels & Resorts$9.98B$5.8B-41%
Marriott Vacations WorldwideVACHotels & Resorts$5.3B$2.2B-59%

For instance, the consequences on various travel bookings brands have been severe. Booking Holdings, the parent company to Booking.com, Priceline, Kayak and OpenTable, witnessed share price declines of over 35% since the peak.

Empty Stadiums

Across the entertainment industry, ticket sales for concerts, movies, and other events are falling precipitously due to cancellations or postponements.

Upwards of $5B in global film industry losses could result from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chilling footage of the Las Vegas strip, as well as other tourist epicenters around the world, shows deserted streets as visitors opt to stay home instead.

Bracing For Impact

Meanwhile, worldwide airline revenue is estimated to fall by as much as $113B in 2020.

In under two months, the share price of Delta Airlines has fallen over 50% as the company anticipates a capacity reduction of 40%, the largest in its history.

CompanyTickerFeb 19 2020 Share PriceMar 24 2020 Share Price
Delta Air LinesNYSE:DAL$58.5$26.9
United Airlines NASDAQ:UAL$79.4$33
American Airlines NASDAQ:AAL$28.3$13.9
Southwest AirlinesNYSE:LUV$56.89$37.7
Alaska Air GroupNYSE:ALK$65.2$28.9
Air Canada (in CAD)TSX:AC$45.3$15.1

The global airline industry—which employs over 10M people—supports $2.7T in global economic activity across an average of 12M passengers per day.

Aruba, Jamaica No More

As for the cruise line industry, global operations came to a 30-day standstill in mid-March. Over 800 COVID-19 cases and 10 deaths across three cruise ships have been discovered.

“COVID-19 on cruise ships poses a risk for rapid spread of disease, causing outbreaks in a vulnerable population, and aggressive efforts are required to contain spread.”

CDC

Carnival, a Miami-based company, has witnessed its share price fall to around one third of its February 19 value. Similarly, Royal Caribbean Cruises, which has seen its market cap plummet almost 70%, announced that it will suspend trips until mid-May.

Occupancy Dilemma

As the hotel industry is impacted by the global outbreak, share prices have also realized a significant slump. In the U.S., an estimated $1.4B in revenue is vanishing each week. If occupancy levels fall by just 30% this year, the U.S. hotel industry could see approximately 4 million jobs wiped out.

The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index, which serves as a benchmark for the sector’s overall health, has declined over 47% year-to-date.

baird hotel stock index

Global Stimulus Response

A number of travel industries around the world are calling for stimulus packages.

On March 25, the U.S. Congress finalized a historic $2T deal, which includes $25B in grants for the airline industry. In the UK, officials are providing small businesses in hospitality and leisure grants that are worth up to $30,000 as part of its $400B bailout plan.

China, Germany, Italy, and Spain have outlined multibillion dollar proposals in response to COVID-19. Overall, at least eleven countries have announced stimulus plans along with the European Commission and the IMF.

When Will the Travel Wave Hit Again?

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic one thing is clear: the impact on the travel industry will have a marked effect on the broader economy.

Travel is closely linked with oil, as transportation accounts for over 60% of global demand. In Q2 2020, global oil consumption is projected to fall by 25M barrels per day.

Along with this, discretionary consumer spending makes up over one third of America’s GDP. The impact of the pandemic across this sector is expected to contribute to a 10% decline or more in U.S. GDP for the second quarter.

As conditions materially improve around the world—with China beginning to open up flights—positive signs are emerging from under the surface. Will BEACH industries quickly bounce back as infection rates drop, or will a slow and painful recovery unfold in the months ahead?

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